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Author: Willeit, M. × Subject: Carbon dioxide ×

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Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
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    Asymmetry and uncertainties in biogeophysical climate-vegetation feedback over a range of CO2 forcings
    (München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2014) Willeit, M.; Ganopolski, A.; Feulner, G.
    Climate–vegetation feedback has the potential to significantly contribute to climate change, but little is known about its range of uncertainties. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity we address possible uncertainties in the strength of the biogeophysical climate–vegetation feedback using a single-model multi-physics ensemble. Equilibrium experiments with halving (140 ppm) and doubling (560 ppm) of CO2 give a contribution of the vegetation–climate feedback to global temperature change in the range −0.3 to −0.1 °C and −0.1 to 0.2 °C, respectively. There is an asymmetry between warming and cooling, with a larger, positive vegetation–climate feedback in the lower CO2 climate. Hotspots of climate–vegetation feedback are the boreal zone, the Amazon rainforest and the Sahara. Albedo parameterization is the dominant source of uncertainty in the subtropics and at high northern latitudes, while uncertainties in evapotranspiration are more relevant in the tropics. We analyse the separate impact of changes in stomatal conductance, leaf area index and vegetation dynamics on climate and we find that different processes are dominant in lower and higher CO2 worlds. The reduction in stomatal conductance gives the main contribution to temperature increase for a doubling of CO2, while dynamic vegetation is the dominant process in the CO2 halving experiments. Globally the climate–vegetation feedback is rather small compared to the sum of the fast climate feedbacks. However, it is comparable to the amplitude of the fast feedbacks at high northern latitudes where it can contribute considerably to polar amplification. The uncertainties in the climate–vegetation feedback are comparable to the multi-model spread of the fast climate feedbacks.
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    Mid-Pleistocene transition in glacial cycles explained by declining CO2 and regolith removal
    (Washington, DC [u.a.] : Assoc., 2019) Willeit, M.; Ganopolski, A.; Calov, R.; Brovkin, V.
    Variations in Earth's orbit pace the glacial-interglacial cycles of the Quaternary, but the mechanisms that transform regional and seasonal variations in solar insolation into glacial-interglacial cycles are still elusive. Here, we present transient simulations of coevolution of climate, ice sheets, and carbon cycle over the past 3 million years. We show that a gradual lowering of atmospheric CO2 and regolith removal are essential to reproduce the evolution of climate variability over the Quaternary. The long-term CO2 decrease leads to the initiation of Northern Hemisphere glaciation and an increase in the amplitude of glacial-interglacial variations, while the combined effect of CO2 decline and regolith removal controls the timing of the transition from a 41,000- to 100,000-year world. Our results suggest that the current CO2 concentration is unprecedented over the past 3 million years and that global temperature never exceeded the preindustrial value by more than 2°C during the Quaternary.