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End date: 2019 × Start date: 2016 × End date: 2009 × Start date: 2000 × Type: article × Subject: numerical model ×

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Now showing 1 - 6 of 6
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    Columnar modelling of nucleation burst evolution in the convective boundary layer - First results from a feasibility study, Part I: Modelling approach
    (München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2006) Hellmuth, O.
    A high-order modelling approach to interpret "continental-type" particle formation bursts in the anthropogenically influenced convective boundary layer (CBL) is proposed. The model considers third-order closure for planetary boundary layer turbulence, sulphur and ammonia chemistry as well as aerosol dynamics. In Paper I of four papers, previous observations of ultrafine particle evolution are reviewed, model equations are derived, the model setup for a conceptual study on binary and ternary homogeneous nucleation is defined and shortcomings of process parameterisation are discussed. In the subsequent Papers II, III and IV simulation results, obtained within the framework of a conceptual study on the CBL evolution and new particle formation (NPF), will be presented and compared with observational findings.
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    Towards global empirical upscaling of FLUXNET eddy covariance observations: Validation of a model tree ensemble approach using a biosphere model
    (München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2009) Jung, M.; Reichstein, M.; Bondeau, A.
    Global, spatially and temporally explicit estimates of carbon and water fluxes derived from empirical up-scaling eddy covariance measurements would constitute a new and possibly powerful data stream to study the variability of the global terrestrial carbon and water cycle. This paper introduces and validates a machine learning approach dedicated to the upscaling of observations from the current global network of eddy covariance towers (FLUXNET). We present a new model TRee Induction ALgorithm (TRIAL) that performs hierarchical stratification of the data set into units where particular multiple regressions for a target variable hold. We propose an ensemble approach (Evolving tRees with RandOm gRowth, ERROR) where the base learning algorithm is perturbed in order to gain a diverse sequence of different model trees which evolves over time. We evaluate the efficiency of the model tree ensemble (MTE) approach using an artificial data set derived from the Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL) biosphere model. We aim at reproducing global monthly gross primary production as simulated by LPJmL from 1998–2005 using only locations and months where high quality FLUXNET data exist for the training of the model trees. The model trees are trained with the LPJmL land cover and meteorological input data, climate data, and the fraction of absorbed photosynthetic active radiation simulated by LPJmL. Given that we know the "true result" in the form of global LPJmL simulations we can effectively study the performance of the MTE upscaling and associated problems of extrapolation capacity. We show that MTE is able to explain 92% of the variability of the global LPJmL GPP simulations. The mean spatial pattern and the seasonal variability of GPP that constitute the largest sources of variance are very well reproduced (96% and 94% of variance explained respectively) while the monthly interannual anomalies which occupy much less variance are less well matched (41% of variance explained). We demonstrate the substantially improved accuracy of MTE over individual model trees in particular for the monthly anomalies and for situations of extrapolation. We estimate that roughly one fifth of the domain is subject to extrapolation while MTE is still able to reproduce 73% of the LPJmL GPP variability here. This paper presents for the first time a benchmark for a global FLUXNET upscaling approach that will be employed in future studies. Although the real world FLUXNET upscaling is more complicated than for a noise free and reduced complexity biosphere model as presented here, our results show that an empirical upscaling from the current FLUXNET network with MTE is feasible and able to extract global patterns of carbon flux variability.
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    The ECOMA 2007 campaign: Rocket observations and numerical modelling of aerosol particle charging and plasma depletion in a PMSE/NLC layer
    (München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2009) Brattli, A.; Lie-Svendsen, Ø.; Svenes, K.; Hoppe, U.-P.; Strelnikova, I.; Rapp, M.; Latteck, R.; Torkar, K.; Gumbel, J.; Megner, L.; Baumgarten, G.
    The ECOMA series of rocket payloads use a set of aerosol particle, plasma, and optical instruments to study the properties of aerosol particles and their interaction with the ambient plasma environment in the polar mesopause region. In August 2007 the ECOMA-3 payload was launched into a region with Polar Mesosphere Summer Echoes (PMSE) and noctilucent clouds (NLC). An electron depletion was detected in a broad region between 83 and 88 km, coincident with enhanced density of negatively charged aerosol particles. We also find evidence for positive ion depletion in the same region. Charge neutrality requires that a population of positively charged particles smaller than 2 nm and with a density of at least 2×108 m−3 must also have been present in the layer, undetected by the instruments. A numerical model for the charging of aerosol particles and their interaction with the ambient plasma is used to analyse the results, showing that high aerosol particle densities are required in order to explain the observed ion density depletion. The model also shows that a very high photoionisation rate is required for the particles smaller than 2 nm to become positively charged, indicating that these may have a lower work function than pure water ice.
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    Seasonal variation of nocturnal temperatures between 1 and 105 km altitude at 54° N observed by lidar
    (München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2008) Gerding, M.; Höffner, J.; Lautenbach, J.; Rauthe, M.; Lübken, F.-J.
    Temperature soundings are performed by lidar at the mid-latitude station of Kühlungsborn (Germany, 54° N, 12° E). The profiles cover the complete range from the lower troposphere (~1 km) to the lower thermosphere (~105 km) by simultaneous and co-located operation of a Rayleigh-Mie-Raman lidar and a potassium resonance lidar. Observations have been done during 266 nights between June 2002 and July 2007, each of 3–15 h length. This large and unique data set provides comprehensive information on the altitudinal and seasonal variation of temperatures from the troposphere to the lower thermosphere. The remaining day-to-day-variability is strongly reduced by harmonic fits at constant altitude levels and a representative data set is achieved. This data set reveals a two-level mesopause structure with an altitude of about 86–87 km (~144 K) in summer and ~102 km (~170 K) during the rest of the year. The average stratopause altitude is ~48 km throughout the whole year, with temperatures varying between 258 and 276 K. From the fit parameters amplitudes and phases of annual, semi-annual, and quarter-annual variations are derived. The amplitude of the annual component is largest with amplitudes of up to 30 K in 85 km, while the quarter-annual variation is smallest and less than 3 K at all altitudes. The lidar data set is compared with ECMWF temperatures below about 70 km altitude and reference data from the NRLMSISE-00 model above. Apart from the temperature soundings the aerosol backscatter ratio is measured between 20 and 35 km. The seasonal variation of these values is presented here for the first time.
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    Mechanisms and time scales of glacial inception simulated with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity
    (München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2009) Calov, R.; Ganopolski, A.; Kubatzki, C.; Claussen, M.
    We investigate glacial inception and glacial thresholds in the climate-cryosphere system utilising the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2, which includes modules for atmosphere, terrestrial vegetation, ocean and interactive ice sheets. The latter are described by the three-dimensional polythermal ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS. A bifurcation which represents glacial inception is analysed with two different model setups: one setup with dynamical ice-sheet model and another setup without it. The respective glacial thresholds differ in terms of maximum boreal summer insolation at 65° N (hereafter referred as Milankovitch forcing (MF)). The glacial threshold of the configuration without ice-sheet dynamics corresponds to a much lower value of MF compared to the full model. If MF attains values only slightly below the aforementioned threshold there is fast transient response. Depending on the value of MF relative to the glacial threshold, the transient response time of inland-ice volume in the model configuration with ice-sheet dynamics ranges from 10 000 to 100 000 years. Due to these long response times, a glacial threshold obtained in an equilibrium simulation is not directly applicable to the transient response of the climate-cryosphere system to time-dependent orbital forcing. It is demonstrated that in transient simulations just crossing of the glacial threshold does not imply large-scale glaciation of the Northern Hemisphere. We found that in transient simulations MF has to drop well below the glacial threshold determined in an equilibrium simulation to initiate glacial inception. Finally, we show that the asynchronous coupling between climate and inland-ice components allows one sufficient realistic simulation of glacial inception and, at the same time, a considerable reduction of computational costs.
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    Five-day planetary waves in the middle atmosphere from Odin satellite data and ground-based instruments in Northern Hemisphere summer 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2007
    (München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2008) Belova, A.; Kirkwood, S.; Murtagh, D.; Mitchell, N.; Singer, W.; Hocking, W.
    A number of studies have shown that 5-day planetary waves modulate noctilucent clouds and the closely related Polar Mesosphere Summer Echoes (PMSE) at the summer mesopause. Summer stratospheric winds should inhibit wave propagation through the stratosphere and, although some numerical models (Geisler and Dickinson, 1976) do show a possibility for upward wave propagation, it has also been suggested that the upward propagation may in practice be confined to the winter hemisphere with horizontal propagation of the wave from the winter to the summer hemisphere at mesosphere heights causing the effects observed at the summer mesopause. It has further been proposed (Garcia et al., 2005) that 5-day planetary waves observed in the summer mesosphere could be excited in-situ by baroclinic instability in the upper mesosphere. In this study, we first extract and analyze 5-day planetary wave characteristics on a global scale in the middle atmosphere (up to 54 km in temperature, and up to 68 km in ozone concentration) using measurements by the Odin satellite for selected days during northern hemisphere summer from 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2007. Second, we show that 5-day temperature fluctuations consistent with westward-traveling 5-day waves are present at the summer mesopause, using local ground-based meteor-radar observations. Finally we examine whether any of three possible sources of the detected temperature fluctuations at the summer mesopause can be excluded: upward propagation from the stratosphere in the summer-hemisphere, horizontal propagation from the winter-hemisphere or in-situ excitation as a result of the baroclinic instability. We find that in one case, far from solstice, the baroclinic instability is unlikely to be involved. In one further case, close to solstice, upward propagation in the same hemisphere seems to be ruled out. In all other cases, all or any of the three proposed mechanisms are consistent with the observations.