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- ItemEmulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 - Part 2: Applications(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2011) Meinshausen, M.; Raper, S.C.B.; Wigley, T.M.L.Intercomparisons of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and carbon cycle models are important for galvanizing our current scientific knowledge to project future climate. Interpreting such intercomparisons faces major challenges, not least because different models have been forced with different sets of forcing agents. Here, we show how an emulation approach with MAGICC6 can address such problems. In a companion paper (Meinshausen et al., 2011a), we show how the lower complexity carbon cycle-climate model MAGICC6 can be calibrated to emulate, with considerable accuracy, globally aggregated characteristics of these more complex models. Building on that, we examine here the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project's Phase 3 results (CMIP3). If forcing agents missed by individual AOGCMs in CMIP3 are considered, this reduces ensemble average temperature change from pre-industrial times to 2100 under SRES A1B by 0.4 °C. Differences in the results from the 1980 to 1999 base period (as reported in IPCC AR4) to 2100 are negligible, however, although there are some differences in the trajectories over the 21st century. In a second part of this study, we consider the new RCP scenarios that are to be investigated under the forthcoming CMIP5 intercomparison for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. For the highest scenario, RCP8.5, relative to pre-industrial levels, we project a median warming of around 4.6 °C by 2100 and more than 7 °C by 2300. For the lowest RCP scenario, RCP3-PD, the corresponding warming is around 1.5 °C by 2100, decreasing to around 1.1 °C by 2300 based on our AOGCM and carbon cycle model emulations. Implied cumulative CO2 emissions over the 21st century for RCP8.5 and RCP3-PD are 1881 GtC (1697 to 2034 GtC, 80% uncertainty range) and 381 GtC (334 to 488 GtC), when prescribing CO2 concentrations and accounting for uncertainty in the carbon cycle. Lastly, we assess the reasons why a previous MAGICC version (4.2) used in IPCC AR4 gave roughly 10% larger warmings over the 21st century compared to the CMIP3 average. We find that forcing differences and the use of slightly too high climate sensitivities inferred from idealized high-forcing runs were the major reasons for this difference.
- ItemLIVAS: A 3-D multi-wavelength aerosol/cloud database based on CALIPSO and EARLINET(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2015) Amiridis, V.; Marinou, E.; Tsekeri, A.; Wandinger, U.; Schwarz, A.; Giannakaki, E.; Mamouri, R.; Kokkalis, P.; Binietoglou, I.; Solomos, S.; Herekakis, T.; Kazadzis, S.; Gerasopoulos, E.; Proestakis, E.; Kottas, M.; Balis, D.; Papayannis, A.; Kontoes, C.; Kourtidis, K.; Papagiannopoulos, N.; Mona, L.; Pappalardo, G.; Le Rille, O.; Ansmann, A.We present LIVAS (LIdar climatology of Vertical Aerosol Structure for space-based lidar simulation studies), a 3-D multi-wavelength global aerosol and cloud optical database, optimized to be used for future space-based lidar end-to-end simulations of realistic atmospheric scenarios as well as retrieval algorithm testing activities. The LIVAS database provides averaged profiles of aerosol optical properties for the potential spaceborne laser operating wavelengths of 355, 532, 1064, 1570 and 2050 nm and of cloud optical properties at the wavelength of 532 nm. The global database is based on CALIPSO observations at 532 and 1064 nm and on aerosol-type-dependent backscatter- and extinction-related Ångström exponents, derived from EARLINET (European Aerosol Research Lidar Network) ground-based measurements for the UV and scattering calculations for the IR wavelengths, using a combination of input data from AERONET, suitable aerosol models and recent literature. The required spectral conversions are calculated for each of the CALIPSO aerosol types and are applied to CALIPSO backscatter and extinction data corresponding to the aerosol type retrieved by the CALIPSO aerosol classification scheme. A cloud optical database based on CALIPSO measurements at 532 nm is also provided, neglecting wavelength conversion due to approximately neutral scattering behavior of clouds along the spectral range of LIVAS. Averages of particle linear depolarization ratio profiles at 532 nm are provided as well. Finally, vertical distributions for a set of selected scenes of specific atmospheric phenomena (e.g., dust outbreaks, volcanic eruptions, wild fires, polar stratospheric clouds) are analyzed and spectrally converted so as to be used as case studies for spaceborne lidar performance assessments. The final global data set includes 4-year (1 January 2008–31 December 2011) time-averaged CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) data on a uniform grid of 1° × 1° with the original high vertical resolution of CALIPSO in order to ensure realistic simulations of the atmospheric variability in lidar end-to-end simulations.
- ItemEmulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 - Part 1: Model description and calibration(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2011) Meinshausen, M.; Raper, S.C.B.; Wigley, T.M.L.Current scientific knowledge on the future response of the climate system to human-induced perturbations is comprehensively captured by various model intercomparison efforts. In the preparation of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intercomparisons were organized for atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and carbon cycle models, named "CMIP3" and "C4MIP", respectively. Despite their tremendous value for the scientific community and policy makers alike, there are some difficulties in interpreting the results. For example, radiative forcings were not standardized across the various AOGCM integrations and carbon cycle runs, and, in some models, key forcings were omitted. Furthermore, the AOGCM analysis of plausible emissions pathways was restricted to only three SRES scenarios. This study attempts to address these issues. We present an updated version of MAGICC, the simple carbon cycle-climate model used in past IPCC Assessment Reports with enhanced representation of time-varying climate sensitivities, carbon cycle feedbacks, aerosol forcings and ocean heat uptake characteristics. This new version, MAGICC6, is successfully calibrated against the higher complexity AOGCMs and carbon cycle models. Parameterizations of MAGICC6 are provided. The mean of the emulations presented here using MAGICC6 deviates from the mean AOGCM responses by only 2.2% on average for the SRES scenarios. This enhanced emulation skill in comparison to previous calibrations is primarily due to: making a "like-with-like comparison" using AOGCM-specific subsets of forcings; employing a new calibration procedure; as well as the fact that the updated simple climate model can now successfully emulate some of the climate-state dependent effective climate sensitivities of AOGCMs. The diagnosed effective climate sensitivity at the time of CO2 doubling for the AOGCMs is on average 2.88 °C, about 0.33 °C cooler than the mean of the reported slab ocean climate sensitivities. In the companion paper (Part 2) of this study, we examine the combined climate system and carbon cycle emulations for the complete range of IPCC SRES emissions scenarios and the new RCP pathways.
- ItemNCIO 1.0: A simple Fortran NetCDF interface(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2015) Robinson, A.; Perrette, M.The NetCDF (Network Common Data Form) library has become an indispensable tool for data and model output management in geoscience. However for simple tasks, particularly in Fortran, the complexity of native NetCDF functionality can be cumbersome. The NCIO (NetCDF Input/Output) module has been designed as an interface to the NetCDF library with simplicity and ease of use in mind. While this implies that some NetCDF functionality is masked from the user, the subroutines provided here are adequate for basic serial reading and writing tasks of up to 6-D data arrays along with corresponding data attributes. The code is available online via a GitHub repository (http://www.github.com/alex-robinson/ncio), which includes an example program to illustrate the approach.
- ItemDoppler lidar studies of heat island effects on vertical mixing of aerosols during SAMUM-2(Milton Park : Taylor & Francis, 2017) Engelmann, Ronny; Ansmann, Albert; Horn, Stefan; Seifert, Patric; Althausen, Dietrich; Tesche, Matthias; Esselborn, Michael; Fruntke, Julia; Lieke, Kirsten; Freudenthaler, Volker; Gross, SilkeA wind Doppler lidar was deployed next to three aerosol lidars during the SAMUM–2 campaign on the main island of Cape Verde. The effects of the differential heating of the island and the surrounding ocean and the orographic impact of the capital island Santiago and the small island on its luv side, Maio, are investigated. Horizontal and vertical winds were measured in the disturbed maritime boundary layer and compared to local radiosoundings. Lidar measurements from the research aircraft Falcon and a 3-D Large Eddy Simulation (LES) model were used in addition to study the heating effects on the scale of the islands. Indications are found that these effects can widely control the downward mixing from greater heights to the surface of African aerosols, mainly Saharan dust and biomass-burning smoke, which were detected in a complex layering over the Cape Verde region.
- ItemGiant multiferroic effects in topological GeTe-Sb2Te3 superlattices(Milton Park : Taylor & Francis, 2015) Tominaga, Junji; Kolobov, Alexander V.; Fons, Paul J.; Wang, Xiaomin; Saito, Yuta; Nakano, Takashi; Hase, Muneaki; Murakami, Shuichi; Herfort, Jens; Takagaki, YukihikoMultiferroics, materials in which both magnetic and electric fields can induce each other, resulting in a magnetoelectric response, have been attracting increasing attention, although the induced magnetic susceptibility and dielectric constant are usually small and have typically been reported for low temperatures. The magnetoelectric response usually depends on d-electrons of transition metals. Here we report that in [(GeTe)2(Sb2Te3)l]m superlattice films (where l and m are integers) with topological phase transition, strong magnetoelectric response may be induced at temperatures above room temperature when the external fields are applied normal to the film surface. By ab initio computer simulations, it is revealed that the multiferroic properties are induced due to the breaking of spatial inversion symmetry when the p-electrons of Ge atoms change their bonding geometry from octahedral to tetrahedral. Finally, we demonstrate the existence in such structures of spin memory, which paves the way for a future hybrid device combining nonvolatile phase-change memory and magnetic spin memory.
- ItemNumerical simulations of optical properties of Saharan dust aerosols with emphasis on lidar applications(Milton Park : Taylor & Francis, 2017) Wiegner, M.; Gasteiger, J.; Kandler, K.; Weinzierl, B.; Rasp, K.; Esselborn, M.; Freudenthaler, V.; Heese, B.; Toledano, C.; Tesche, M.; Althausen, D.In the framework of the Saharan Mineral Dust Experiment (SAMUM) for the first time the spectral dependence of particle linear depolarization ratios was measured by combining four lidar systems. In this paper these measurements are compared with results from scattering theory based on the T-matrix method. For this purpose, in situ measurements—size distribution, shape distribution and refractive index—were used as input parameters; particle shape was approximated by spheroids. A sensitivity study showed that lidar-related parameters—lidar ratio Sp and linear depolarization ratio δp—are very sensitive to changes of all parameters. The simulated values of the δp are in the range of 20% and 31% and thus in the range of the measurements. The spectral dependence is weak, so that it could not be resolved by the measurements. Calculated lidar ratios based on the measured microphysics and considering equivalent radii up to 7.5μm show a range of possible values between 29 and 50 sr at λ = 532 nm. Larger Sp might be possible if the real part of the refractive index is small and the imaginary part is large. A strict validation was however not possible as too many microphysical parameters influence Sp and δp that could not be measured with the required accuracy.
- ItemThermal IR radiative properties of mixed mineral dust and biomass aerosol during SAMUM-2(Milton Park : Taylor & Francis, 2011) Köhler, Claas H.; Trautmann, Thomas; Lindermeir, Erwin; Vreeling, Willem; Lieke, Kirsten; Kandler, Konrad; Weinzierl, Bernadett; Groß, Silke; Tesche, Matthias; Wendisch, ManfredGround-based high spectral resolution measurements of downwelling radiances from 800 to 1200 cm−1 were conducted between 20 January and 6 February 2008 within the scope of the SAMUM-2 field experiment. We infer the spectral signature of mixed biomass burning/mineral dust aerosols at the surface from these measurements and at top of the atmosphere from IASI observations. In a case study for a day characterized by the presence of high loads of both dust and biomass we attempt a closure with radiative transfer simulations assuming spherical particles. A detailed sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the effect of uncertainties in the measurements ingested into the simulation on the simulated radiances. Distinct deviations between modelled and observed radiances are limited to a spectral region characterized by resonance bands in the refractive index. A comparison with results obtained during recent laboratory studies and field experiments reveals, that the deviations could be caused by the aerosol particles’ non-sphericity, although an unequivocal discrimination from measurement uncertainties is not possible. Based on radiative transfer simulations we estimate the aerosol’s direct radiative effect in the atmospheric window region to be 8 W m−2 at the surface and 1 W m−2 at top of the atmosphere.
- ItemEvaluation of long-range transport and deposition of desert dust with the CTM MOCAGE(Milton Park : Taylor & Francis, 2017) Martet, M.; Peuch, V-H.; Laurent, B.; Marticorena, B.; Bergametti, G.Desert dust modelling and forecasting attract growing interest, due to the numerous impacts of dusts on climate, numerical weather prediction, health, ecosystems, transportation, as well as on many industrial activities. The validation of numerical tools is a very important activity in this context, and we present here an example of such an effort, combining in situ (horizontal visibility in SYNOP messages, IMPROVE database) and remote-sensing data (satellite imagery, AERONET aerosol optical thickness data). Interestingly, these measurements are available routinely, and not only in the context of dedicated measurements campaign; thus, they can be used in an operational context to monitor the performances of operational forecasting systems. MOCAGE is the chemistry-transport model of Météo-France, used operationally to forecast the three-dimensional transport of dusts and their deposition. Two very long-range transport episodes of dust have been studied: one case of Saharan dust transported to East America through Asia and Pacific observed in November 2004 and one case of Saharan dust transported from West Africa to Caribbean Islands in May 2007. Episodes of geographical extension had seldom been studied, and they provide a very selective reference to compare the modelled desert dusts with. The representation of dusts in MOCAGE appears to be realistic in these two very different cases. In turn, the model simulations are used to make the link between the complementary information provided by the different measurements tools, providing a fully consistent picture of the entire episodes. The evolution of the aerosol size distribution during the episodes has also been studied. With no surprise, our study underlines that deposition processes are very sensitive to the size of dust particles. If the atmospheric cycle, in terms of mass, is very much under the influence of larger particles (some micrometres and above), only the finer particles actually travel over thousands of kilometres. This illustrates the need for an accurate representation of size distributions for this aerosol component in numerical models and advocates for using a size-resolved (bin) approach as sinks, and particularly, deposition do not affect the emitted log-normal distributions symmetrically on both sides of the median diameter. Overall, the results presented in this study provide an evaluation of Météo-France operational dust forecasting system MOCAGE.
- ItemInfluence of cell shape, inhomogeneities and diffusion barriers in cell polarization models(Berlin : Weierstraß-Institut für Angewandte Analysis und Stochastik, 2014) Giese, Wolfgang; Eigel, Martin; Westerheide, Sebastian; Engwer, Christian; Klipp, EddaIn silico experiments bear the potential to further the understanding of biological transport processes by allowing a systematic modification of any spatial property and providing immediate simulation results for the chosen models. We consider cell polarization and spatial reorganization of membrane proteins which are fundamental for cell division, chemotaxis and morphogenesis. Our computational study is motivated by mating and budding processes of S. cerevisiae. In these processes a key player during the initial phase of polarization is the GTPase Cdc42 which occurs in an active membrane-bound form and an inactive cytosolic form. We use partial differential equations to describe the membrane-cytosol shuttling of Cdc42 during budding as well as mating of yeast. The membrane is modeled as a thin layer that only allows lateral diffusion and the cytosol is modeled as a volume. We investigate how cell shape and diffusion barriers like septin structures or bud scars influence Cdc42 cluster formation and subsequent polarization of the yeast cell. Since the details of the binding kinetics of cytosolic proteins to the membrane are still controversial, we employ two conceptual models which assume different binding kinetics. An extensive set of in silico experiments with different modeling hypotheses illustrate the qualitative dependence of cell polarization on local membrane curvature, cell size and inhomogeneities on the membrane and in the cytosol. We examine that spatial inhomogenities essentially determine the location of Cdc42 cluster formation and spatial properties are crucial for the realistic description of the polarization process in cells. In particular, our computer simulations suggest that diffusion barriers are essential for the yeast cell to grow a protrusion.