2015, Fröhlich, R., Crenn, V., Setyan, A., Belis, C.A., Canonaco, F., Favez, O., Riffault, V., Slowik, J.G., Aas, W., Aijälä, M., Alastuey, A., Artiñano, B., Bonnaire, N., Bozzetti, C., Bressi, M., Carbone, C., Coz, E., Croteau, P.L., Cubison, M.J., Esser-Gietl, J.K., Green, D.C., Gros, V., Heikkinen, L., Herrmann, H., Jayne, J.T., Lunder, C.R., Minguillón, M.C., Močnik, G., O'Dowd, C.D., Ovadnevaite, J., Petralia, E., Poulain, L., Priestman, M., Ripoll, A., Sarda-Estève, R., Wiedensohler, A., Baltensperger, U., Sciare, J., Prévôt, A.S.H.

Chemically resolved atmospheric aerosol data sets from the largest intercomparison of the Aerodyne aerosol chemical speciation monitors (ACSMs) performed to date were collected at the French atmospheric supersite SIRTA. In total 13 quadrupole ACSMs (Q-ACSM) from the European ACTRIS ACSM network, one time-of-flight ACSM (ToF-ACSM), and one high-resolution ToF aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) were operated in parallel for about 3 weeks in November and December~2013. Part 1 of this study reports on the accuracy and precision of the instruments for all the measured species. In this work we report on the intercomparison of organic components and the results from factor analysis source apportionment by positive matrix factorisation (PMF) utilising the multilinear engine 2 (ME-2). Except for the organic contribution of mass-to-charge ratio m/z 44 to the total organics (f44), which varied by factors between 0.6 and 1.3 compared to the mean, the peaks in the organic mass spectra were similar among instruments. The m/z 44 differences in the spectra resulted in a variable f44 in the source profiles extracted by ME-2, but had only a minor influence on the extracted mass contributions of the sources. The presented source apportionment yielded four factors for all 15 instruments: hydrocarbon-like organic aerosol (HOA), cooking-related organic aerosol (COA), biomass burning-related organic aerosol (BBOA) and secondary oxygenated organic aerosol (OOA). ME-2 boundary conditions (profile constraints) were optimised individually by means of correlation to external data in order to achieve equivalent / comparable solutions for all ACSM instruments and the results are discussed together with the investigation of the influence of alternative anchors (reference profiles). A comparison of the ME-2 source apportionment output of all 15 instruments resulted in relative standard deviations (SD) from the mean between 13.7 and 22.7 % of the source's average mass contribution depending on the factors (HOA: 14.3 ± 2.2 %, COA: 15.0 ± 3.4 %, OOA: 41.5 ± 5.7 %, BBOA: 29.3 ± 5.0 %). Factors which tend to be subject to minor factor mixing (in this case COA) have higher relative uncertainties than factors which are recognised more readily like the OOA. Averaged over all factors and instruments the relative first SD from the mean of a source extracted with ME-2 was 17.2 %.

2017, Mitchell, Daniel, AchutaRao, Krishna, Allen, Myles, Bethke, Ingo, Beyerle, Urs, Ciavarella, Andrew, Forster, Piers M., Fuglestvedt, Jan, Gillett, Nathan, Haustein, Karsten, Ingram, William, Iversen, Trond, Kharin, Viatcheslav, Klingaman, Nicholas, Massey, Neil, Fischer, Erich, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Scinocca, John, Seland, Øyvind, Shiogama, Hideo, Shuckburgh, Emily, Sparrow, Sarah, Stone, Dáithí, Uhe, Peter, Wallom, David, Wehner, Michael, Zaaboul, Rashyd

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from the UNFCCC to provide a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and on related global greenhouse-gas emission pathways. Many current experiments in, for example, the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP), are not specifically designed for informing this report. Here, we document the design of the half a degree additional warming, projections, prognosis and impacts (HAPPI) experiment. HAPPI provides a framework for the generation of climate data describing how the climate, and in particular extreme weather, might differ from the present day in worlds that are 1.5 and 2.0°C warmer than pre-industrial conditions. Output from participating climate models includes variables frequently used by a range of impact models. The key challenge is to separate the impact of an additional approximately half degree of warming from uncertainty in climate model responses and internal climate variability that dominate CMIP-style experiments under low-emission scenarios. Large ensembles of simulations (> 50 members) of atmosphere-only models for three time slices are proposed, each a decade in length: the first being the most recent observed 10-year period (2006–2015), the second two being estimates of a similar decade but under 1.5 and 2°C conditions a century in the future. We use the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) to provide the model boundary conditions for the 1.5°C scenario, and a weighted combination of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 for the 2°C scenario.