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- ItemModeling of two different water uptake approaches for mono-and mixed-species forest stands(Basel : MDPI, 2015) Gutsch, Martin; Lasch-Born, Petra; Suckow, Felicitas; Reyer, Christopher P.O.To assess how the effects of drought could be better captured in process-based models, this study simulated and contrasted two water uptake approaches in Scots pine and Scots pine-Sessile oak stands. The first approach consisted of an empirical function for root water uptake (WU1). The second approach was based on differences of soil water potential along a soil-plant-atmosphere continuum (WU2) with total root resistance varying at low, medium and high total root resistance levels. Three data sets on different time scales relevant for tree growth were used for model evaluation: Two short-term datasets on daily transpiration and soil water content as well as a long-term dataset on annual tree ring increments. Except WU2 with high total root resistance, all transpiration outputs exceeded observed values. The strongest correlation between simulated and observed annual tree ring width occurred with WU2 and high total root resistance. The findings highlighted the importance of severe drought as a main reason for small diameter increment. However, if all three data sets were taken into account, no approach was superior to the other. We conclude that accurate projections of future forest productivity depend largely on the realistic representation of root water uptake in forest model simulations.
- ItemEnhanced economic connectivity to foster heat stress-related losses(Washington, DC : American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2016) Wenz, Leonie; Levermann, AndersAssessing global impacts of unexpected meteorological events in an increasingly connected world economy is important for estimating the costs of climate change. We show that since the beginning of the 21st century, the structural evolution of the global supply network has been such as to foster an increase of climate-related production losses. We compute first- and higher-order losses from heat stress–induced reductions in productivity under changing economic and climatic conditions between 1991 and 2011. Since 2001, the economic connectivity has augmented in such a way as to facilitate the cascading of production loss. The influence of this structural change has dominated over the effect of the comparably weak climate warming during this decade. Thus, particularly under future warming, the intensification of international trade has the potential to amplify climate losses if no adaptation measures are taken.
- ItemGlobal gridded crop model evaluation: Benchmarking, skills, deficiencies and implications(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2017) Müller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Arneth, Almut; Balkovic, Juraj; Ciais, Philippe; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Hoek, Steven; Iizumi, Toshichika; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Jones, Curtis; Khabarov, Nikolay; Lawrence, Peter; Liu, Wenfeng; Olin, Stefan; Pugh, Thomas A.M.; Ray, Deepak K.; Reddy, Ashwan; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C.; Sakurai, Gen; Schmid, Erwin; Skalsky, Rastislav; Song, Carol X.; Wang, Xuhui; de Wit, Allard; Yang, HongCrop models are increasingly used to simulate crop yields at the global scale, but so far there is no general framework on how to assess model performance. Here we evaluate the simulation results of 14 global gridded crop modeling groups that have contributed historic crop yield simulations for maize, wheat, rice and soybean to the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). Simulation results are compared to reference data at global, national and grid cell scales and we evaluate model performance with respect to time series correlation, spatial correlation and mean bias. We find that global gridded crop models (GGCMs) show mixed skill in reproducing time series correlations or spatial patterns at the different spatial scales. Generally, maize, wheat and soybean simulations of many GGCMs are capable of reproducing larger parts of observed temporal variability (time series correlation coefficients (r) of up to 0.888 for maize, 0.673 for wheat and 0.643 for soybean at the global scale) but rice yield variability cannot be well reproduced by most models. Yield variability can be well reproduced for most major producing countries by many GGCMs and for all countries by at least some. A comparison with gridded yield data and a statistical analysis of the effects of weather variability on yield variability shows that the ensemble of GGCMs can explain more of the yield variability than an ensemble of regression models for maize and soybean, but not for wheat and rice. We identify future research needs in global gridded crop modeling and for all individual crop modeling groups. In the absence of a purely observation-based benchmark for model evaluation, we propose that the best performing crop model per crop and region establishes the benchmark for all others, and modelers are encouraged to investigate how crop model performance can be increased. We make our evaluation system accessible to all crop modelers so that other modeling groups can also test their model performance against the reference data and the GGCMI benchmark.
- ItemEvaluating spatially resolved influence of soil and tree water status on quality of European plum grown in semi-humid climate(Lausanne : Frontiers Media, 2017) Käthner, Jana; Ben-Gal, Alon; Gebbers, Robin; Peeters, Aviva; Herppich, Werner B.; Zude-Sasse, ManuelaIn orchards, the variations of fruit quality and its determinants are crucial for resource effective measures. In the present study, a drip-irrigated plum production (Prunus domestica L. “Tophit plus”/Wavit) located in a semi-humid climate was studied. Analysis of the apparent electrical conductivity (ECa) of soil showed spatial patterns of sand lenses in the orchard. Water status of sample trees was measured instantaneously by means of leaf water potential, Ψleaf [MPa], and for all trees by thermal imaging of canopies and calculation of the crop water stress index (CWSI). Methods for determining CWSI were evaluated. A CWSI approach calculating canopy and reference temperatures from the histogram of pixels from each image itself was found to suit the experimental conditions. Soil ECa showed no correlation with specific leaf area ratio and cumulative water use efficiency (WUEc) derived from the crop load. The fruit quality, however, was influenced by physiological drought stress in trees with high crop load and, resulting (too) high WUEc, when fruit driven water demand was not met. As indicated by analysis of variance, neither ECa nor the instantaneous CWSI could be used as predictors of fruit quality, while the interaction of CWSI and WUEc did succeed in indicating significant differences. Consequently, both WUEc and CWSI should be integrated in irrigation scheduling for positive impact on fruit quality.
- ItemDeciphering the imprint of topology on nonlinear dynamical network stability(Bristol : IOP Publishing, 2017) Nitzbon, J.; Schultz, P.; Heitzig, J.; Hellmann, F.Coupled oscillator networks show complex interrelations between topological characteristics of the network and the nonlinear stability of single nodes with respect to large but realistic perturbations. We extend previous results on these relations by incorporating sampling-based measures of the transient behaviour of the system, its survivability, as well as its asymptotic behaviour, its basin stability. By combining basin stability and survivability we uncover novel, previously unknown asymptotic states with solitary, desynchronized oscillators which are rotating with a frequency different from their natural one. They occur almost exclusively after perturbations at nodes with specific topological properties. More generally we confirm and significantly refine the results on the distinguished role tree-shaped appendices play for nonlinear stability. We find a topological classification scheme for nodes located in such appendices, that exactly separates them according to their stability properties, thus establishing a strong link between topology and dynamics. Hence, the results can be used for the identification of vulnerable nodes in power grids or other coupled oscillator networks. From this classification we can derive general design principles for resilient power grids. We find that striving for homogeneous network topologies facilitates a better performance in terms of nonlinear dynamical network stability. While the employed second-order Kuramoto-like model is parametrised to be representative for power grids, we expect these insights to transfer to other critical infrastructure systems or complex network dynamics appearing in various other fields.
- ItemAssessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2017) Frieler, Katja; Lange, Stefan; Piontek, Franziska; Reyer, Christopher P.O.; Schewe, Jacob; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang; Chini, Louise; Denvil, Sebastien; Emanuel, Kerry; Geiger, Tobias; Halladay, Kate; Hurtt, George; Mengel, Matthias; Murakami, Daisuke; Ostberg, Sebastian; Popp, Alexander; Riva, Riccardo; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Suzuki, Tatsuo; Volkholz, Jan; Burke, Eleanor; Ciais, Philippe; Ebi, Kristie; Eddy, Tyler D.; Elliott, Joshua; Galbraith, Eric; Gosling, Simon N.; Hattermann, Fred; Hickler, Thomas; Hinkel, Jochen; Hof, Christian; Huber, Veronika; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Krysanova, Valentina; Marcé, Rafael; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Pierson, Don; Tittensor, Derek P.; Vautard, Robert; van Vliet, Michelle; Biber, Matthias F.; Betts, Richard A.; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Deryng, Delphine; Frolking, Steve; Jones, Chris D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tian, Hanqin; Yamagata, YoshikiIn Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5°C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).
- ItemComment on 'Oxygen vacancy-induced magnetic moment in edge-sharing CuO2 chains of Li2CuO2'(Bristol : IOP Publishing, 2018) Kuzian, R.O.; Klingeler, R.; Lorenz, W.E.A.; Wizent, N.; Nishimoto, S.; Nitzsche, U.; Rosner, H.; Milosavljevic, D.; Hozoi, L.; Yadav, R.; Richter, J.; Hauser, A.; Geck, J.; Hayn, R.; Yushankhai, V.; Siurakshina, L.; Monney, C.; Schmitt, T.; Schmitt, T.; Roth, G.; Ito, T.; Yamaguchi, H.; Matsuda, M.; Johnston, S.; Málek, J.; Drechsler, S.-L.In a recent work devoted to the magnetism of Li2CuO2, Shu et al (2017 New J. Phys. 19, 023026) have proposed a 'simplified' unfrustrated microscopic model that differs considerably from the models refined through decades of prior work. We show that the proposed model is at odds with known experimental data, including the reported magnetic susceptibility χ(T) data up to 550 K. Using an 8th order high-temperature expansion for χ(T), we show that the experimental data for Li2CuO2 are consistent with the prior model derived from inelastic neutron scattering studies. We also establish the T-range of validity for a Curie–Weiss law for the real frustrated magnetic system. We argue that the knowledge of the long-range ordered magnetic structure for T < T N and of χ(T) in a restricted T-range provides insufficient information to extract all of the relevant couplings in frustrated magnets; the saturation field and INS data must also be used to determine several exchange couplings, including the weak but decisive frustrating antiferromagnetic interchain couplings.
- ItemFrom math to metaphors and back again: Social-ecological resilience from a multi-agent-environment perspective(München : ÖKOM-Verlag, 2017) Donges, Jonathan F.; Barfuss, WolframScience and policy stand to benefit from reconnecting the many notions of social-ecological resilience to their roots in complexity sciences.We propose several ways of moving towards operationalization through the classification of modern concepts of resilience based on a multi-agent-environment perspective. Social-ecological resilience underlies popular sustainability concepts that have been influential in formulating the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), such as the Planetary Boundaries and Doughnut Economics. Scientific investigation of these concepts is supported by mathematical models of planetary biophysical and societal dynamics, both of which call for operational measures of resilience. However, current quantitative descriptions tend to be restricted to the foundational form of the concept: persistence resilience. We propose a classification of modern notions of social-ecological resilience from a multi-agent-environment perspective. This aims at operationalization in a complex systems framework, including the persistence, adaptation and transformation aspects of resilience, normativity related to desirable system function, first- vs. second-order and specific vs. general resilience. For example, we discuss the use of the Topology of Sustainable Management Framework. Developing the mathematics of resilience along these lines would not only make social-ecological resilience more applicable to data and models, but could also conceptually advance resilience thinking.
- ItemRecord Balkan floods of 2014 linked to planetary wave resonance(Washington, DC : American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2016) Stadtherr, Lisa; Coumou, Dim; Petoukhov, Vladimir; Petri, Stefan; Rahmstorf, StefanIn May 2014, the Balkans were hit by a Vb-type cyclone that brought disastrous flooding and severe damage to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, and Croatia. Vb cyclones migrate from the Mediterranean, where they absorb warm and moist air, to the north, often causing flooding in central/eastern Europe. Extreme rainfall events are increasing on a global scale, and both thermodynamic and dynamical mechanisms play a role. Where thermodynamic aspects are generally well understood, there is large uncertainty associated with current and future changes in dynamics. We study the climatic and meteorological factors that influenced the catastrophic flooding in the Balkans, where we focus on large-scale circulation. We show that the Vb cyclone was unusually stationary, bringing extreme rainfall for several consecutive days, and that this situation was likely linked to a quasi-stationary circumglobal Rossby wave train. We provide evidence that this quasi-stationary wave was amplified by wave resonance. Statistical analysis of daily spring rainfall over the Balkan region reveals significant upward trends over 1950–2014, especially in the high quantiles relevant for flooding events. These changes cannot be explained by simple thermodynamic arguments, and we thus argue that dynamical processes likely played a role in increasing flood risks over the Balkans.
- ItemThe Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services Advisory Board (VIACS AB v1.0) contribution to CMIP6(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2016) Ruane, Alex C.; Teichmann, Claas; Arnell, Nigel W.; Carter, Timothy R.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Frieler, Katja; Goodess, Clare M.; Hewitson, Bruce; Horton, Radley; Kovats, R. Sari; Lotze, Heike K.; Mearns, Linda O.; Navarra, Antonio; Ojima, Dennis S.; Riahi, Keywan; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Themessl, Matthias; Vincent, KatharineThis paper describes the motivation for the creation of the Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), its initial activities, and its plans to serve as a bridge between climate change applications experts and climate modelers. The climate change application community comprises researchers and other specialists who use climate information (alongside socioeconomic and other environmental information) to analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation of natural systems and society in relation to past, ongoing, and projected future climate change. Much of this activity is directed toward the co-development of information needed by decision-makers for managing projected risks. CMIP6 provides a unique opportunity to facilitate a two-way dialog between climate modelers and VIACS experts who are looking to apply CMIP6 results for a wide array of research and climate services objectives. The VIACS Advisory Board convenes leaders of major impact sectors, international programs, and climate services to solicit community feedback that increases the applications relevance of the CMIP6-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs). As an illustration of its potential, the VIACS community provided CMIP6 leadership with a list of prioritized climate model variables and MIP experiments of the greatest interest to the climate model applications community, indicating the applicability and societal relevance of climate model simulation outputs. The VIACS Advisory Board also recommended an impacts version of Obs4MIPs and indicated user needs for the gridding and processing of model output.
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