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- ItemManagement scenarios of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and their impacts under recent and future climates(Basel : MDPI, 2017) Liersch, Stefan; Koch, Hagen; Hattermann, Fred FokkoClose to the border with Sudan, Ethiopia is currently building the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa with a storage volume corresponding to approximately 1.5 years of the mean discharges of the Blue Nile. This endeavor is controversially debated in the public and the scientific literature. Contributing to this discussion, by shading some light on climate change issues, an eco-hydrological model, equipped with a reservoir module, was applied to investigate downstream hydrological impacts during filling and regular operation, the latter considering climate change projected by an ensemble of 10 global and regional climate models. Our results show that at the earliest after 20 months, the dam could produce hydroelectric power. Full supply level may be reached after four years or not at all, depending on filling policies and assumptions of seepage rates. Under recent hydro-climatic conditions, the dam may produce 13 TWh −a , which is below the envisaged target of 15.7 TWh −a . The ensemble mean suggests slightly increasing hydropower production in the future. Almost independently of the operation rules, the highly variable discharge regime will be significantly altered to a regime with almost equal flows each month. Achieving a win-win situation for all riparian countries requires a high level of cooperation in managing the Eastern Nile water resources.
- ItemWirkungen des globalen Wandels auf den Wasserkreislauf im Elbegebiet - Ergebnisse und Konsequenzen : GLOWA-ELBE III Verbundvorhaben ; Schlussbericht(Hannover : Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB), 2011) Wechsung, F.; Gerstengarbe, F.W.; Conradt, T.; Gräfe, P.; Hattermann, F.; Hauf, Y.; Lüttger, A.; Werner, P.C.; Walter, C.[no abstract available]
- ItemWirkung von Klimaänderungen auf Vegetation: Entwicklung eines allgemeinen Modells für die Klimafolgenforschung : Abschlußbericht(Potsdam : Potsdam-Institut für Klimaforschung, 1999) Cramer, Wolfgang[no abstract available]
- ItemCUDe — Carbon utilization degree as an indicator for sustainable biomass use(Basel : MDPI, 2016) Anja Hansen, Anja Hansen; Budde, Jörn; Karatay, Yusuf Nadi; Prochnow, AnnetteCarbon (C) is a central element in organic compounds and is an indispensable resource for life. It is also an essential production factor in bio-based economies, where biomass serves many purposes, including energy generation and material production. Biomass conversion is a common case of transformation between different carbon-containing compounds. At each transformation step, C might be lost. To optimize the C use, the C flows from raw materials to end products must be understood. The estimation of how much of the initial C in the feedstock remains in consumable products and delivers services provides an indication of the C use efficiency. We define this concept as Carbon Utilization Degree (CUDe) and apply it to two biomass uses: biogas production and hemp insulation. CUDe increases when conversion processes are optimized, i.e., residues are harnessed and/or losses are minimized. We propose CUDe as a complementary approach for policy design to assess C as an asset for bio-based production. This may lead to a paradigm shift to see C as a resource that requires sustainable exploitation. It could complement the existing methods that focus solely on the climate impact of carbon.
- ItemProfitability of management systems on German fenlands(Basel : MDPI, 2016) Rebhann, Marco; Karatay, Yusuf Nadi; Filler, Günther; Prochnow, AnnetteFens are organic sites that require drainage for agricultural use. Lowering the groundwater level leads to trade-offs between economic benefits and environmental impacts (i.e., CO2 and nutrient emissions). To identify management options that are both environmentally and economically sustainable, a propaedeutic systematic analysis of the costs, income and profit of different land use and management systems on fenlands is necessary. This study provides an overview of the profitability, labor demand and comparative advantages of feasible management systems on German fenlands. Twenty management practices in four land use systems are analyzed. The results indicate that most management systems are profitable only with subsidies and payments for ecosystem services. In addition to sales revenue, these payments are indispensable to promote peat-saving agricultural practices on fenlands. Regarding the labor aspect, intensive management systems caused an increase in working hours per hectare, which may positively affect employment in rural areas. The calculations obtained in this study can be used as a basis for estimations of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation costs when management systems are associated with GHG emission values.
- ItemOn the importance of cascading moisture recycling in South America(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2014) Zemp, D.C.; Schleussner, C.-F.; Barbosa, H.M.J.; van der Ent, R.J.; Donges, J.F.; Heinke, J.; Sampaio, G.; Rammig, A.Continental moisture recycling is a crucial process of the South American climate system. In particular, evapotranspiration from the Amazon basin contributes substantially to precipitation regionally as well as over other remote regions such as the La Plata basin. Here we present an in-depth analysis of South American moisture recycling mechanisms. In particular, we quantify the importance of cascading moisture recycling (CMR), which describes moisture transport between two locations on the continent that involves re-evaporation cycles along the way. Using an Eulerian atmospheric moisture tracking model forced by a combination of several historical climate data sets, we were able to construct a complex network of moisture recycling for South America. Our results show that CMR contributes about 9–10% to the total precipitation over South America and 17–18% over the La Plata basin. CMR increases the fraction of total precipitation over the La Plata basin that originates from the Amazon basin from 18–23 to 24–29% during the wet season. We also show that the south-western part of the Amazon basin is not only a direct source of rainfall over the La Plata basin, but also a key intermediary region that distributes moisture originating from the entire Amazon basin towards the La Plata basin during the wet season. Our results suggest that land use change in this region might have a stronger impact on downwind rainfall than previously thought. Using complex network analysis techniques, we find the eastern side of the sub-tropical Andes to be a key region where CMR pathways are channeled. This study offers a better understanding of the interactions between the vegetation and the atmosphere on the water cycle, which is needed in a context of land use and climate change in South America.
- ItemCoincidences of climate extremes and anomalous vegetation responses: Comparing tree ring patterns to simulated productivity(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2015) Rammig, A.; Wiedermann, M.; Donges, J.F.; Babst, F.; von Bloh, W.; Frank, D.; Thonicke, K.; Mahecha, M.D.Climate extremes can trigger exceptional responses in terrestrial ecosystems, for instance by altering growth or mortality rates. Such effects are often manifested in reductions in net primary productivity (NPP). Investigating a Europe-wide network of annual radial tree growth records confirms this pattern: we find that 28% of tree ring width (TRW) indices are below two standard deviations in years in which extremely low precipitation, high temperatures or the combination of both noticeably affect tree growth. Based on these findings, we investigate possibilities for detecting climate-driven patterns in long-term TRW data to evaluate state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation models such as the Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic global vegetation model for managed land (LPJmL). The major problem in this context is that LPJmL simulates NPP but not explicitly the radial tree growth, and we need to develop a generic method to allow for a comparison between simulated and observed response patterns. We propose an analysis scheme that quantifies the coincidence rate of climate extremes with some biotic responses (here TRW or simulated NPP). We find a relative reduction of 34% in simulated NPP during precipitation, temperature and combined extremes. This reduction is comparable to the TRW response patterns, but the model responds much more sensitively to drought stress. We identify 10 extreme years during the 20th century during which both model and measurements indicate high coincidence rates across Europe. However, we detect substantial regional differences in simulated and observed responses to climatic extreme events. One explanation for this discrepancy could be the tendency of tree ring data to originate from climatically stressed sites. The difference between model and observed data is amplified by the fact that dynamic vegetation models are designed to simulate mean ecosystem responses on landscape or regional scales. We find that both simulation results and measurements display carry-over effects from climate anomalies during the previous year. We conclude that radial tree growth chronologies provide a suitable basis for generic model benchmarks. The broad application of coincidence analysis in generic model benchmarks along with an increased availability of representative long-term measurements and improved process-based models will refine projections of the long-term carbon balance in terrestrial ecosystems.
- ItemImpact of temperature and precipitation extremes on the flowering dates of four German wildlife shrub species(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2016) Siegmund, Jonatan F.; Wiedermann, Marc; Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.Ongoing climate change is known to cause an increase in the frequency and amplitude of local temperature and precipitation extremes in many regions of the Earth. While gradual changes in the climatological conditions have already been shown to strongly influence plant flowering dates, the question arises if and how extremes specifically impact the timing of this important phenological phase. Studying this question calls for the application of statistical methods that are tailored to the specific properties of event time series. Here, we employ event coincidence analysis, a novel statistical tool that allows assessing whether or not two types of events exhibit similar sequences of occurrences in order to systematically quantify simultaneities between meteorological extremes and the timing of the flowering of four shrub species across Germany. Our study confirms previous findings of experimental studies by highlighting the impact of early spring temperatures on the flowering of the investigated plants. However, previous studies solely based on correlation analysis do not allow deriving explicit estimates of the strength of such interdependencies without further assumptions, a gap that is closed by our analysis. In addition to direct impacts of extremely warm and cold spring temperatures, our analysis reveals statistically significant indications of an influence of temperature extremes in the autumn preceding the flowering.
- ItemRole of CO2, climate and land use in regulating the seasonal amplitude increase of carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems: A multimodel analysis(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2016) Zhao, Fang; Zeng, Ning; Asrar, Ghassem; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Ito, Akihiko; Jain, Atul; Kalnay, Eugenia; Kato, Etsushi; Koven, Charles D.; Poulter, Ben; Rafique, Rashid; Sitch, Stephen; Shu, Shijie; Stocker, Beni; Viovy, Nicolas; Wiltshire, Andy; Zaehle, SonkeWe examined the net terrestrial carbon flux to the atmosphere (FTA) simulated by nine models from the TRENDY dynamic global vegetation model project for its seasonal cycle and amplitude trend during 1961–2012. While some models exhibit similar phase and amplitude compared to atmospheric inversions, with spring drawdown and autumn rebound, others tend to rebound early in summer. The model ensemble mean underestimates the magnitude of the seasonal cycle by 40 % compared to atmospheric inversions. Global FTA amplitude increase (19 ± 8 %) and its decadal variability from the model ensemble are generally consistent with constraints from surface atmosphere observations. However, models disagree on attribution of this long-term amplitude increase, with factorial experiments attributing 83 ± 56 %, −3 ± 74 and 20 ± 30 % to rising CO2, climate change and land use/cover change, respectively. Seven out of the nine models suggest that CO2 fertilization is the strongest control – with the notable exception of VEGAS, which attributes approximately equally to the three factors. Generally, all models display an enhanced seasonality over the boreal region in response to high-latitude warming, but a negative climate contribution from part of the Northern Hemisphere temperate region, and the net result is a divergence over climate change effect. Six of the nine models show that land use/cover change amplifies the seasonal cycle of global FTA: some are due to forest regrowth, while others are caused by crop expansion or agricultural intensification, as revealed by their divergent spatial patterns. We also discovered a moderate cross-model correlation between FTA amplitude increase and increase in land carbon sink (R2 = 0.61). Our results suggest that models can show similar results in some benchmarks with different underlying mechanisms; therefore, the spatial traits of CO2 fertilization, climate change and land use/cover changes are crucial in determining the right mechanisms in seasonal carbon cycle change as well as mean sink change.
- ItemThe "dual-spot" Aethalometer: An improved measurement of aerosol black carbon with real-time loading compensation(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2015) Drinovec, L.; Močnik, G.; Zotter, P.; Prévôt, A.S.H.; Ruckstuhl, C.; Coz, E.; Rupakheti, M.; Sciare, J.; Müller, T.; Wiedensohler, A.; Hansen, A.D.A.Aerosol black carbon is a unique primary tracer for combustion emissions. It affects the optical properties of the atmosphere and is recognized as the second most important anthropogenic forcing agent for climate change. It is the primary tracer for adverse health effects caused by air pollution. For the accurate determination of mass equivalent black carbon concentrations in the air and for source apportionment of the concentrations, optical measurements by filter-based absorption photometers must take into account the "filter loading effect". We present a new real-time loading effect compensation algorithm based on a two parallel spot measurement of optical absorption. This algorithm has been incorporated into the new Aethalometer model AE33. Intercomparison studies show excellent reproducibility of the AE33 measurements and very good agreement with post-processed data obtained using earlier Aethalometer models and other filter-based absorption photometers. The real-time loading effect compensation algorithm provides the high-quality data necessary for real-time source apportionment and for determination of the temporal variation of the compensation parameter k.