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- ItemPotential climate change impacts on the water balance of subcatchments of the River Spree, Germany(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2012) Pohle, I.; Koch, H.; Grünewald, U.Lusatia is considered one of the driest regions of Germany. The climatic water balance is negative even under current climate conditions. Due to global climate change, increased temperatures and a shift of precipitation from summer to winter are expected. Therefore, it is of major interest whether the excess water in winter can be stored and to which extent it is used up on increasing evapotranspiration. Thus, this study focuses on estimating potential climate change impacts on the water balance of two subcatchments of the River Spree using the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM). Climate input was taken from 100 realisations each of two scenarios of the STatistical Analogue Resampling scheme STAR assuming a further temperature increase of 0 K (scenario A) and 2 K by the year 2055 (scenario B) respectively. Resulting from increased temperatures and a shift in precipitation from summer to winter actual evapotranspiration is supposed to increase in winter and early spring, but to decrease in later spring and early summer. This is less pronounced for scenario A than for scenario B. Consequently, also the decrease in discharge and groundwater recharge in late spring is lower for scenario A than for scenario B. The highest differences of runoff generation and groundwater recharge between the two scenarios but also the highest ranges within the scenarios occur in summer and early autumn. It is planned to estimate potential climate change for the catchments of Spree, Schwarze Elster and Lusatian Neisse.
- ItemChemistry of new particle growth in mixed urban and biogenic emissions - Insights from CARES(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2014) Setyan, A.; Song, C.; Merkel, M.; Knighton, W.B.; Onasch, T.B.; Canagaratna, M.R.; Worsnop, D.R.; Wiedensohler, A.; Shilling, J.E.; Zhang, Q.Regional new particle formation and growth events (NPEs) were observed on most days over the Sacramento and western Sierra foothills area of California in June 2010 during the Carbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effect Study (CARES). Simultaneous particle measurements at both the T0 (Sacramento, urban site) and the T1 (Cool, rural site located ~40 km northeast of Sacramento) sites of CARES indicate that the NPEs usually occurred in the morning with the appearance of an ultrafine mode at ~15 nm (in mobility diameter, Dm, measured by a mobility particle size spectrometer operating in the range 10-858 nm) followed by the growth of this modal diameter to ~50 nm in the afternoon. These events were generally associated with southwesterly winds bringing urban plumes from Sacramento to the T1 site. The growth rate was on average higher at T0 (7.1 ± 2.7 nm h−1) than at T1 (6.2 ± 2.5 nm h−1), likely due to stronger anthropogenic influences at T0. Using a high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS), we investigated the evolution of the size-resolved chemical composition of new particles at T1. Our results indicate that the growth of new particles was driven primarily by the condensation of oxygenated organic species and, to a lesser extent, ammonium sulfate. New particles appear to be fully neutralized during growth, consistent with high NH3 concentration in the region. Nitrogen-containing organic ions (i.e., CHN+, CH4N+, C2H3N+, and C2H4N+) that are indicative of the presence of alkyl-amine species in submicrometer particles enhanced significantly during the NPE days, suggesting that amines might have played a role in these events. Our results also indicate that the bulk composition of the ultrafine mode organics during NPEs was very similar to that of anthropogenically influenced secondary organic aerosol (SOA) observed in transported urban plumes. In addition, the concentrations of species representative of urban emissions (e.g., black carbon, CO, NOx, and toluene) were significantly higher whereas the photo-oxidation products of biogenic VOCs (volatile organic compounds) and the biogenically influenced SOA also increased moderately during the NPE days compared to the non-event days. These results indicate that the frequently occurring NPEs over the Sacramento and Sierra Nevada regions were mainly driven by urban plumes from Sacramento and the San Francisco Bay Area, and that the interaction of regional biogenic emissions with the urban plumes has enhanced the new particle growth. This finding has important implications for quantifying the climate impacts of NPEs on global scale.
- ItemFormation of organic aerosol in the Paris region during the MEGAPOLI summer campaign: Evaluation of the volatility-basis-set approach within the CHIMERE model(Göttingen : Copernicus, 2013) Zhang, Q.J.; Beekmann, M.; Drewnick, F.; Freutel, F.; Schneider, J.; Crippa, M.; Prevot, A.S.H.; Baltensperger, U.; Poulain, L.; Wiedensohler, A.; Sciare, J.; Gros, V.; Borbon, A.; Colomb, A.; Michoud, V.; Doussin, J.-F.; Denier Van Der Gon, H.A.C.; Haeffelin, M.; Dupont, J.-C.; Siour, G.; Petetin, H.; Bessagnet, B.; Pandis, S.N.; Hodzic, A.; Sanchez, O.; Honoré, C.; Perrussel, O.Simulations with the chemistry transport model CHIMERE are compared to measurements performed during the MEGAPOLI (Megacities: Emissions, urban, regional and Global Atmospheric POLlution and climate effects, and Integrated tools for assessment and mitigation) summer campaign in the Greater Paris region in July 2009. The volatility-basis-set approach (VBS) is implemented into this model, taking into account the volatility of primary organic aerosol (POA) and the chemical aging of semi-volatile organic species. Organic aerosol is the main focus and is simulated with three different configurations with a modified treatment of POA volatility and modified secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation schemes. In addition, two types of emission inventories are used as model input in order to test the uncertainty related to the emissions. Predictions of basic meteorological parameters and primary and secondary pollutant concentrations are evaluated, and four pollution regimes are defined according to the air mass origin. Primary pollutants are generally overestimated, while ozone is consistent with observations. Sulfate is generally overestimated, while ammonium and nitrate levels are well simulated with the refined emission data set. As expected, the simulation with non-volatile POA and a single-step SOA formation mechanism largely overestimates POA and underestimates SOA. Simulation of organic aerosol with the VBS approach taking into account the aging of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOC) shows the best correlation with measurements. High-concentration events observed mostly after long-range transport are well reproduced by the model. Depending on the emission inventory used, simulated POA levels are either reasonable or underestimated, while SOA levels tend to be overestimated. Several uncertainties related to the VBS scheme (POA volatility, SOA yields, the aging parameterization), to emission input data, and to simulated OH levels can be responsible for this behavior. Despite these uncertainties, the implementation of the VBS scheme into the CHIMERE model allowed for much more realistic organic aerosol simulations for Paris during summertime. The advection of SOA from outside Paris is mostly responsible for the highest OA concentration levels. During advection of polluted air masses from northeast (Benelux and Central Europe), simulations indicate high levels of both anthropogenic and biogenic SOA fractions, while biogenic SOA dominates during periods with advection from Southern France and Spain.
- ItemComposition and evolution of volcanic aerosol from eruptions of Kasatochi, Sarychev and Eyjafjallajökull in 2008-2010 based on CARIBIC observations(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2013) Andersson, S.M.; Martinsson, B.G.; Friberg, J.; Brenninkmeijer, C.A.M.; Rauthe-Schöch, A.; Hermann, M.; van Velthoven, P.F.J.; Zahn, A.Large volcanic eruptions impact significantly on climate and lead to ozone depletion due to injection of particles and gases into the stratosphere where their residence times are long. In this the composition of volcanic aerosol is an important but inadequately studied factor. Samples of volcanically influenced aerosol were collected following the Kasatochi (Alaska), Sarychev (Russia) and also during the Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland) eruptions in the period 2008–2010. Sampling was conducted by the CARIBIC platform during regular flights at an altitude of 10–12 km as well as during dedicated flights through the volcanic clouds from the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in spring 2010. Elemental concentrations of the collected aerosol were obtained by accelerator-based analysis. Aerosol from the Eyjafjallajökull volcanic clouds was identified by high concentrations of sulphur and elements pointing to crustal origin, and confirmed by trajectory analysis. Signatures of volcanic influence were also used to detect volcanic aerosol in stratospheric samples collected following the Sarychev and Kasatochi eruptions. In total it was possible to identify 17 relevant samples collected between 1 and more than 100 days following the eruptions studied. The volcanically influenced aerosol mainly consisted of ash, sulphate and included a carbonaceous component. Samples collected in the volcanic cloud from Eyjafjallajökull were dominated by the ash and sulphate component (∼45% each) while samples collected in the tropopause region and LMS mainly consisted of sulphate (50–77%) and carbon (21–43%). These fractions were increasing/decreasing with the age of the aerosol. Because of the long observation period, it was possible to analyze the evolution of the relationship between the ash and sulphate components of the volcanic aerosol. From this analysis the residence time (1/e) of sulphur dioxide in the studied volcanic cloud was estimated to be 45 ± 22 days.
- ItemClimate impacts on human livelihoods: Where uncertainty matters in projections of water availability(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2014) Lissner, T.K.; Reusser, D.E.; Schewe, J.; Lakes, T.; Kropp, J.P.Climate change will have adverse impacts on many different sectors of society, with manifold consequences for human livelihoods and well-being. However, a systematic method to quantify human well-being and livelihoods across sectors is so far unavailable, making it difficult to determine the extent of such impacts. Climate impact analyses are often limited to individual sectors (e.g. food or water) and employ sector-specific target measures, while systematic linkages to general livelihood conditions remain unexplored. Further, recent multi-model assessments have shown that uncertainties in projections of climate impacts deriving from climate and impact models, as well as greenhouse gas scenarios, are substantial, posing an additional challenge in linking climate impacts with livelihood conditions. This article first presents a methodology to consistently measure what is referred to here as AHEAD (Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development). Based on a trans-disciplinary sample of concepts addressing human well-being and livelihoods, the approach measures the adequacy of conditions of 16 elements. We implement the method at global scale, using results from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to show how changes in water availability affect the fulfilment of AHEAD at national resolution. In addition, AHEAD allows for the uncertainty of climate and impact model projections to be identified and differentiated. We show how the approach can help to put the substantial inter-model spread into the context of country-specific livelihood conditions by differentiating where the uncertainty about water scarcity is relevant with regard to livelihood conditions – and where it is not. The results indicate that livelihood conditions are compromised by water scarcity in 34 countries. However, more often, AHEAD fulfilment is limited through other elements. The analysis shows that the water-specific uncertainty ranges of the model output are outside relevant thresholds for AHEAD for 65 out of 111 countries, and therefore do not contribute to the overall uncertainty about climate change impacts on livelihoods. In 46 of the countries in the analysis, water-specific uncertainty is relevant to AHEAD. The AHEAD method presented here, together with first results, forms an important step towards making scientific results more applicable for policy decisions.
- ItemThe impact of climate change and variability on the generation of electrical power(Stuttgart : Gebrueder Borntraeger Verlagsbuchhandlung, 2015) Koch, H.; Vögele, S.; Hattermann, F.F.; Huang, S.
- ItemForests under climate change: Potential risks and opportunities(Stuttgart : Gebrueder Borntraeger Verlagsbuchhandlung, 2015) Lasch-Born, P.; Suckow, F.; Gutsch, M.; Reyer, C.; Hauf, Y.; Murawski, A.; Pilz, T.
- ItemThe Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services Advisory Board (VIACS AB v1.0) contribution to CMIP6(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2016) Ruane, Alex C.; Teichmann, Claas; Arnell, Nigel W.; Carter, Timothy R.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Frieler, Katja; Goodess, Clare M.; Hewitson, Bruce; Horton, Radley; Kovats, R. Sari; Lotze, Heike K.; Mearns, Linda O.; Navarra, Antonio; Ojima, Dennis S.; Riahi, Keywan; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Themessl, Matthias; Vincent, KatharineThis paper describes the motivation for the creation of the Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), its initial activities, and its plans to serve as a bridge between climate change applications experts and climate modelers. The climate change application community comprises researchers and other specialists who use climate information (alongside socioeconomic and other environmental information) to analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation of natural systems and society in relation to past, ongoing, and projected future climate change. Much of this activity is directed toward the co-development of information needed by decision-makers for managing projected risks. CMIP6 provides a unique opportunity to facilitate a two-way dialog between climate modelers and VIACS experts who are looking to apply CMIP6 results for a wide array of research and climate services objectives. The VIACS Advisory Board convenes leaders of major impact sectors, international programs, and climate services to solicit community feedback that increases the applications relevance of the CMIP6-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs). As an illustration of its potential, the VIACS community provided CMIP6 leadership with a list of prioritized climate model variables and MIP experiments of the greatest interest to the climate model applications community, indicating the applicability and societal relevance of climate model simulation outputs. The VIACS Advisory Board also recommended an impacts version of Obs4MIPs and indicated user needs for the gridding and processing of model output.
- ItemClimate change and its effect on agriculture, water resources and human health sectors in Poland(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2010) Szwed, M.; Karg, G.; Pińskwar, I.; Radziejewski, M.; Graczyk, D.; Kȩdziora, A.; Kundzewicz, Z.W.Multi-model ensemble climate projections in the ENSEMBLES Project of the EU allowed the authors to quantify selected extreme-weather indices for Poland, of importance to climate impacts on systems and sectors. Among indices were: number of days in a year with high value of the heat index; with high maximum and minimum temperatures; length of vegetation period; and number of consecutive dry days. Agricultural, hydrological, and human health indices were applied to evaluate the changing risk of weather extremes in Poland in three sectors. To achieve this, model-based simulations were compared for two time horizons, a century apart, i.e., 1961-1990 and 2061-2090. Climate changes, and in particular increases in temperature and changes in rainfall, have strong impacts on agriculture via weather extremes-droughts and heat waves. The crop yield depends particularly on water availability in the plant development phase. To estimate the changes in present and future yield of two crops important for Polish agriculture i.e., potatoes and wheat, some simple empirical models were used. For these crops, decrease of yield is projected for most of the country, with national means of yield change being:-2.175 t/ha for potatoes and-0.539 t/ha for wheat. Already now, in most of Poland, evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation during summer, hence the water storage (in surface water bodies, soil and ground) decreases. Summer precipitation deficit is projected to increase considerably in the future. The additional water supplies (above precipitation) needed to use the agro-potential of the environment would increase by half. Analysis of water balance components (now and in the projected future) can corroborate such conclusions. As regards climate and health, a composite index, proposed in this paper, is a product of the number of senior discomfort days and the number of seniors (aged 65+). The value of this index is projected to increase over 8-fold during 100 years. This is an effect of both increase in the number of seniors (over twofold) and the number of senior-discomfort days (nearly fourfold).
- ItemClimate change impacts on hydrology and water resources(Stuttgart : Gebrueder Borntraeger Verlagsbuchhandlung, 2015) Hattermann, F.F.; Huang, S.; Koch, H.