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- ItemLong-term wintertime trend of zonally asymmetric ozone in boreal extratropics during 1979-2016(Basel : MDPI AG, 2018) Schneidereit, A.; Peters, D.H.W.Strong zonally asymmetric ozone (ZAO) changes are observed in the boreal extratropics for winter. During the TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) period (1979-1992) the decrease of zonally asymmetric total ozone (ZATO) was twice as large as the observed zonal mean total ozone trend over Europe in January mainly caused by ultra-long wave transport. Recent studies have demonstrated that the ozone evolution reveals three different quasi-bidecadal trend stages: (i) Decline, (ii) leveling, and (ii) healing. This study focuses on the ZAO structure in boreal extratropics and on ozone transport changes by ultra-long waves during winter months. ERA-Interim data together with a linearized transport model are used. During the healing stage ZATO increases significantly over the North Atlantic/European region for January. The ZATO increase (healing stage) and ZATO decrease (decline stage) are caused by different monthly mean ozone transport characteristics of ultra-long planetary waves over the North Atlantic/European region. Furthermore, the vertical advection (ageostrophic transport) of ozone versus its horizontal component dominates in the lower and middle stratosphere during the healing stage. It is hypothesized that these ageostrophic wind changes are mainly caused by a wave train directed northeastwards which seems to be directly linked to the Arctic warming. © 2018 by the authors.
- ItemAirborne high spectral resolution lidar observation of pollution aerosol during EUCAARI-LONGREX(Göttingen : Copernicus, 2013) Groß, S.; Esselborn, M.; Abicht, F.; Wirth, M.; Fix, A.; Minikin, A.Airborne high spectral resolution lidar observations over Europe during the EUCAARI-LONGREX field experiment in May 2008 are analysed with respect to the optical properties of continental pollution aerosol. Continental pollution aerosol is characterized by its depolarisation and lidar ratio. Over all, the measurements of the lidar ratio and the particle linear depolarization ratio of pollution aerosols provide a narrow range of values. Therefore, this data set allows for a distinct characterization of the aerosol type "pollution aerosol" and thus is valuable both to distinguish continental pollution aerosol from other aerosol types and to determine mixtures with other types of aerosols.
- ItemClimate of the last millennium: Ensemble consistency of simulations and reconstructions(Göttingen : Copernicus, 2013) Bothe, O.; Jungclaus, J.H.; Zanchettin, D.; Zorita, E.Are simulations and reconstructions of past climate and its variability consistent with each other? We assess the consistency of simulations and reconstructions for the climate of the last millennium under the paradigm of a statistically indistinguishable ensemble. In this type of analysis, the null hypothesis is that reconstructions and simulations are statistically indistinguishable and, therefore, are exchangeable with each other. Ensemble consistency is assessed for Northern Hemisphere mean temperature, Central European mean temperature and for global temperature fields. Reconstructions available for these regions serve as verification data for a set of simulations of the climate of the last millennium performed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Consistency is generally limited to some sub-domains and some sub-periods. Only the ensemble simulated and reconstructed annual Central European mean temperatures for the second half of the last millennium demonstrates unambiguous consistency. Furthermore, we cannot exclude consistency of an ensemble of reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperature with the simulation ensemble mean. If we treat simulations and reconstructions as equitable hypotheses about past climate variability, the found general lack of their consistency weakens our confidence in inferences about past climate evolutions on the considered spatial and temporal scales. That is, our available estimates of past climate evolutions are on an equal footing but, as shown here, inconsistent with each other.
- ItemInfluence of tides and gravity waves on layering processes in the polar summer mesopause region(Göttingen : Copernicus, 2008) Hoffmann, P.; Rapp, M.; Fiedler, J.; Latteck, R.Polar Mesosphere Summer Echoes (PMSE) have been studied at Andenes (69° N, 16° E), Norway, using VHF radar observations since 1994. One remarkable feature of these observations is the fact that {during 50% of the time,} the radar echoes occur in the form of two or more distinct layers. In the case of multiple PMSE layers, statistical analysis shows that the lower layer occurs at a mean height of ∼83.4 km, which is almost identical to the mean height of noctilucent clouds (NLC) derived from observation with the ALOMAR Rayleigh/Mie/Raman lidar at the same site. To investigate the layering processes microphysical model simulations under the influence of tidal and gravity waves were performed. In the presence of long period gravity waves, these model investigations predict an enhanced formation of multiple PMSE layer structures, where the lower layer is a consequence of the occurrence of the largest particles at the bottom of the ice cloud. This explains the coincidence of the lowermost PMSE layers and NLC. During periods with enhanced amplitudes of the semidiurnal tide, the observed NLC and PMSE show pronounced tidal structures comparable to the results of corresponding microphysical simulations. At periods with short period gravity waves there is a tendency for a decreasing occurrence of NLC and for variable weak PMSE structures.
- ItemLongitude-dependent decadal ozone changes and ozone trends in boreal winter months during 1960-2000(Göttingen : Copernicus, 2008) Peters, D.H.W.; Gabriel, A.; Entzian, G.This study examines the longitude-dependent decadal changes and trends of ozone for the boreal winter months during the period of 1960–2000. These changes are caused primarily by changes in the planetary wave structure in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The decadal changes and trends over 4 decades of geopotential perturbations, defined as a deviation from the zonal mean, are estimated by linear regression with time. The decadal changes in longitude-dependent ozone were calculated with a simple transport model of ozone based on the known planetary wave structure changes and prescribed zonal mean ozone gradients. For December of the 1960s and 1980s a statistically significant Rossby wave track appeared over the North Atlantic and Europe with an anticyclonic disturbance over the Eastern North Atlantic and Western Europe, flanked by cyclonic disturbances. In the 1970s and 1990s statistically significant cyclonic disturbances appeared over the Eastern North Atlantic and Europe, surrounded by anticyclonic anomalies over Northern Africa, Central Asia and Greenland. Similar patterns have been found for January. The Rossby wave track over the North Atlantic and Europe is stronger in the 1980s than in the 1960s. For February, the variability of the regression patterns is higher. For January we found a strong alteration in the modelled decadal changes in total ozone over Central and Northern Europe, showing a decrease of about 15 DU in the 1960s and 1980s and an increase of about 10 DU in the 1970s and 1990s. Over Central Europe the positive geopotential height trend (increase of 2.3 m/yr) over 40 years is of the same order (about 100 m) as the increase in the 1980s alone. This is important to recognize because it implies a total ozone decrease over Europe of the order of 14 DU for the 1960–2000 period, for January, if we use the standard change regression relation that about a 10-m geopotential height increase at 300 hPa is related to about a 1.4-DU total ozone decrease.
- ItemUsing Meta-Analysis and GIS for Value Transfer and Scaling Up: Valuing Climate Change Induced Losses of European Wetlands(Dordrecht : Springer, 2012) Brander, L.M.; Bräuer, I.; Gerdes, H.; Ghermandi, A.; Kuik, O.; Markandya, A.; Navrud, S.; Nunes, P.A.L.D.; Schaafsma, M.; Vos, H.; Wagtendonk, A.There is growing policy and academic interest in transferring ecosystem service values from existing valuation studies to other ecosystem sites at a large geographic scale. Despite the evident policy demand for this combined transfer and "scaling up" of values, an approach to value transfer that addresses the challenges inherent in assessing ecosystem changes at a national or regional level is not available. This paper proposes a methodology for scaling up ecosystem service values to estimate the welfare effects of ecosystem change at this larger geographical scale. The methodology is illustrated by applying it to value the impact of climate change on European wetlands for the period 2000-2050. The proposed methodology makes use of meta-analysis to produce a value function. The parameters of the value function include spatial variables on wetland size and abundance, GDP per capita, and population. A geographic information system is used to construct a database of wetland sites in the case study region with information on these spatial variables. Site-specific ecosystem service values are subsequently estimated using the meta-analytic value function. The proposed method is shown to enable the adjustment of transferred values to reflect variation in important spatial variables and to account for changes in the stock of ecosystems.
- ItemThe global aerosol-climate model echam6.3-ham2.3 -Part 1: Aerosol evaluation(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2019) Tegen, I.; Neubauer, D.; Ferrachat, S.; Drian, C.S.-L.; Bey, I.; Schutgens, N.; Stier, P.; Watson-Parris, D.; Stanelle, T.; Schmidt, H.; Rast, S.; Kokkola, H.; Schultz, M.; Schroeder, S.; Daskalakis, N.; Barthel, S.; Heinold, B.; Lohmann, U.We introduce and evaluate aerosol simulations with the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM6.3-HAM2.3, which is the aerosol component of the fully coupled aerosol-chemistry-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ. Both the host atmospheric climate model ECHAM6.3 and the aerosol model HAM2.3 were updated from previous versions. The updated version of the HAM aerosol model contains improved parameterizations of aerosol processes such as cloud activation, as well as updated emission fields for anthropogenic aerosol species and modifications in the online computation of sea salt and mineral dust aerosol emissions. Aerosol results from nudged and free-running simulations for the 10-year period 2003 to 2012 are compared to various measurements of aerosol properties. While there are regional deviations between the model and observations, the model performs well overall in terms of aerosol optical thickness, but may underestimate coarse-mode aerosol concentrations to some extent so that the modeled particles are smaller than indicated by the observations. Sulfate aerosol measurements in the US and Europe are reproduced well by the model, while carbonaceous aerosol species are biased low. Both mineral dust and sea salt aerosol concentrations are improved compared to previous versions of ECHAM-HAM. The evaluation of the simulated aerosol distributions serves as a basis for the suitability of the model for simulating aerosol-climate interactions in a changing climate.
- ItemUnderstanding flood regime changes in Europe: A state-of-the-art assessment(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2014) Hall, J.; Arheimer, B.; Borga, M.; Brázdil, R.; Claps, P.; Kiss, A.; Kjeldsen, T.R.; Kriauĉuniene, J.; Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Lang, M.; Llasat, M.C.; Macdonald, N.; McIntyre, N.; Mediero, L.; Merz, B.; Merz, R.; Molnar, P.; Montanari, A.; Neuhold, C.; Parajka, J.; Perdigão, R.A.P.; Plavcová, L.; Rogger, M.; Salinas, J.L.; Sauquet, E.; Schär, C.; Szolgay, J.; Viglione, A.; Blöschl, G.There is growing concern that flooding is becoming more frequent and severe in Europe. A better understanding of flood regime changes and their drivers is therefore needed. The paper reviews the current knowledge on flood regime changes in European rivers that has traditionally been obtained through two alternative research approaches. The first approach is the data-based detection of changes in observed flood events. Current methods are reviewed together with their challenges and opportunities. For example, observation biases, the merging of different data sources and accounting for nonlinear drivers and responses. The second approach consists of modelled scenarios of future floods. Challenges and opportunities associated with flood change scenarios are discussed such as fully accounting for uncertainties in the modelling cascade and feedbacks. To make progress in flood change research, we suggest that a synthesis of these two approaches is needed. This can be achieved by focusing on long duration records and flood-rich and flood-poor periods rather than on short duration flood trends only, by formally attributing causes of observed flood changes, by validating scenarios against observed flood regime dynamics, and by developing low-dimensional models of flood changes and feedbacks. The paper finishes with a call for a joint European flood change research network.
- ItemReconstruction of global gridded monthly sectoral water withdrawals for 1971-2010 and analysis of their spatiotemporal patterns(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2018) Huang, Z.; Hejazi, M.; Li, X.; Tang, Q.; Vernon, C.; Leng, G.; Liu, Y.; Döll, P.; Eisner, S.; Gerten, D.; Hanasaki, N.; Wada, Y.Human water withdrawal has increasingly altered the global water cycle in past decades, yet our understanding of its driving forces and patterns is limited. Reported historical estimates of sectoral water withdrawals are often sparse and incomplete, mainly restricted to water withdrawal estimates available at annual and country scales, due to a lack of observations at seasonal and local scales. In this study, through collecting and consolidating various sources of reported data and developing spatial and temporal statistical downscaling algorithms, we reconstruct a global monthly gridded (0.5°) sectoral water withdrawal dataset for the period 1971-2010, which distinguishes six water use sectors, i.e., irrigation, domestic, electricity generation (cooling of thermal power plants), livestock, mining, and manufacturing. Based on the reconstructed dataset, the spatial and temporal patterns of historical water withdrawal are analyzed. Results show that total global water withdrawal has increased significantly during 1971-2010, mainly driven by the increase in irrigation water withdrawal. Regions with high water withdrawal are those densely populated or with large irrigated cropland production, e.g., the United States (US), eastern China, India, and Europe. Seasonally, irrigation water withdrawal in summer for the major crops contributes a large percentage of total annual irrigation water withdrawal in mid- and high-latitude regions, and the dominant season of irrigation water withdrawal is also different across regions. Domestic water withdrawal is mostly characterized by a summer peak, while water withdrawal for electricity generation has a winter peak in high-latitude regions and a summer peak in low-latitude regions. Despite the overall increasing trend, irrigation in the western US and domestic water withdrawal in western Europe exhibit a decreasing trend. Our results highlight the distinct spatial pattern of human water use by sectors at the seasonal and annual timescales. The reconstructed gridded water withdrawal dataset is open access, and can be used for examining issues related to water withdrawals at fine spatial, temporal, and sectoral scales.
- ItemWater savings potentials of irrigation systems: Global simulation of processes and linkages(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2015) Jägermeyr, J.; Gerten, D.; Heinke, J.; Schaphoff, S.; Kummu, M.; Lucht, W.