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- ItemWhat can we learn from the projections of changes of flow patterns? Results from Polish case studies(Heidelberg : Springer, 2017) Piniewski, Mikołaj; Meresa, Hadush Kidane; Romanowicz, Renata; Osuch, Marzena; Szczes´niak, Mateusz; Kardel, Ignacy; Okruszko, Tomasz; Mezghani, Abdelkader; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.River flow projections for two future time horizons and RCP 8.5 scenario, generated by two projects (CHASE-PL and CHIHE) in the Polish-Norwegian Research Programme, were compared. The projects employed different hydrological models over different spatial domains. The semi-distributed, process-based, SWAT model was used in the CHASE-PL project for the entire Vistula and Odra basins area, whilst the lumped, conceptual, HBV model was used in the CHIHE project for eight Polish catchments, for which the comparison study was made. Climate projections in both studies originated from the common EURO-CORDEX dataset, but they were different, e.g. due to different bias correction approaches. Increases in mean annual and seasonal flows were projected in both studies, yet the magnitudes of changes were largely different, in particular for the lowland catchments in the far future. The HBV-based increases were significantly higher in the latter case than the SWAT-based increases in all seasons except winter. Uncertainty in projections is high and creates a problem for practitioners.
- ItemDIVA: An iterative method for building modular integrated models(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2005) Hinkel, J.Integrated modelling of global environmental change impacts faces the challenge that knowledge from the domains of Natural and Social Science must be integrated. This is complicated by often incompatible terminology and the fact that the interactions between subsystems are usually not fully understood at the start of the project. While a modular modelling approach is necessary to address these challenges, it is not sufficient. The remaining question is how the modelled system shall be cut down into modules. While no generic answer can be given to this question, communication tools can be provided to support the process of modularisation and integration. Along those lines of thought a method for building modular integrated models was developed within the EU project DINAS-COAST and applied to construct a first model, which assesses the vulnerability of the world’s coasts to climate change and sea-level-rise. The method focuses on the development of a common language and offers domain experts an intuitive interface to code their knowledge in form of modules. However, instead of rigorously defining interfaces between the subsystems at the project’s beginning, an iterative model development process is defined and tools to facilitate communication and collaboration are provided. This flexible approach has the advantage that increased understanding about subsystem interactions, gained during the project’s lifetime, can immediately be reflected in the model.
- ItemPotential climate change impacts on the water balance of subcatchments of the River Spree, Germany(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2012) Pohle, I.; Koch, H.; Grünewald, U.Lusatia is considered one of the driest regions of Germany. The climatic water balance is negative even under current climate conditions. Due to global climate change, increased temperatures and a shift of precipitation from summer to winter are expected. Therefore, it is of major interest whether the excess water in winter can be stored and to which extent it is used up on increasing evapotranspiration. Thus, this study focuses on estimating potential climate change impacts on the water balance of two subcatchments of the River Spree using the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM). Climate input was taken from 100 realisations each of two scenarios of the STatistical Analogue Resampling scheme STAR assuming a further temperature increase of 0 K (scenario A) and 2 K by the year 2055 (scenario B) respectively. Resulting from increased temperatures and a shift in precipitation from summer to winter actual evapotranspiration is supposed to increase in winter and early spring, but to decrease in later spring and early summer. This is less pronounced for scenario A than for scenario B. Consequently, also the decrease in discharge and groundwater recharge in late spring is lower for scenario A than for scenario B. The highest differences of runoff generation and groundwater recharge between the two scenarios but also the highest ranges within the scenarios occur in summer and early autumn. It is planned to estimate potential climate change for the catchments of Spree, Schwarze Elster and Lusatian Neisse.
- ItemLarge-scale hydrological modelling and the Water Framework Directive and Floods Directive of the European Union - 10th Workshop on Large-Scale Hydrological Modelling(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2007) Lindenschmidt, K.-E.; Hattermann, F.; Mohaupt, V.; Merz, B.; Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Bronstert, A.In December 2000, the Water Framework Directive (WFD) of the European Union (EU) was enforced (EC, 2000) to provide a new legislative basis for water management in Europe. The main goal of the WFD is the implementation of river basin water management plans in which comprehensive studies of the current status of the surface and ground water bodies must be reported and management programs must be enforced with cost-effective measures with which a good ecological condition of the water bodies can be attained and sustained.
- ItemThe challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems(Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer, 2013) Stone, D.; Auffhammer, M.; Carey, M.; Hansen, G.; Huggel, C.; Cramer, W.; Lobell, D.; Molau, U.; Solow, A.; Tibig, L.; Yohe, G.Anthropogenic climate change has triggered impacts on natural and human systems world-wide, yet the formal scientific method of detection and attribution has been only insufficiently described. Detection and attribution of impacts of climate change is a fundamentally cross-disciplinary issue, involving concepts, terms, and standards spanning the varied requirements of the various disciplines. Key problems for current assessments include the limited availability of long-term observations, the limited knowledge on processes and mechanisms involved in changing environmental systems, and the widely different concepts applied in the scientific literature. In order to facilitate current and future assessments, this paper describes the current conceptual framework of the field and outlines a number of conceptual challenges. Based on this, it proposes workable cross-disciplinary definitions, concepts, and standards. The paper is specifically intended to serve as a baseline for continued development of a consistent cross-disciplinary framework that will facilitate integrated assessment of the detection and attribution of climate change impacts.
- ItemGeoengineering climate by stratospheric sulfur injections: Earth system vulnerability to technological failure(Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer, 2009) Brovkin, V.; Petoukhov, V.; Claussen, M.; Bauer, E.; Archer, D.; Jaeger, C.We use a coupled climate-carbon cycle model of intermediate complexity to investigate scenarios of stratospheric sulfur injections as a measure to compensate for CO2-induced global warming. The baseline scenario includes the burning of 5,000 GtC of fossil fuels. A full compensation of CO2-induced warming requires a load of about 13 MtS in the stratosphere at the peak of atmospheric CO2 concentration. Keeping global warming below 2°C reduces this load to 9 MtS. Compensation of CO 2 forcing by stratospheric aerosols leads to a global reduction in precipitation, warmer winters in the high northern latitudes and cooler summers over northern hemisphere landmasses. The average surface ocean pH decreases by 0.7, reducing the calcifying ability of marine organisms. Because of the millennial persistence of the fossil fuel CO2 in the atmosphere, high levels of stratospheric aerosol loading would have to continue for thousands of years until CO2 was removed from the atmosphere. A termination of stratospheric aerosol loading results in abrupt global warming of up to 5°C within several decades, a vulnerability of the Earth system to technological failure. © 2008 The Author(s).
- ItemStern's Review and Adam's fallacy(Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer, 2008) Jaeger, C.; Schellnhuber, H.J.; Brovkin, V.The Stern Review has played an enormous role in making the world of business aware of the challenge of long-term climate change. In order to make real progress on the basis of this awareness, it is important to pay attention to the difference between human suffering and losses of gross domestic product (GDP). The Review has compared climate change to experiences of suffering like World War I. That war, however, hardly affected global GDP. The long-term damages to be expected from business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions include loss of the coastal cities of the world over the next millennia. This would be an act of unprecedented barbarism, regardless of whether it would slow down economic growth or perhaps even accelerate it. Business leaders worried about climate change need to pay attention to the tensions between ethical and economic concerns. Otherwise, a credibility crisis threatens global climate policy. An important step to establish the credibility needed for effective climate policy will be to gradually move towards a regime where emission permits are auctioned, not handed out as hidden subsidies. The revenues generated by permit auctions should be used to establish a global system of regional climate funds. © 2008 The Author(s).
- ItemA new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of shared socioeconomic pathways(Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer, 2014) O'Neill, B.C.; Kriegler, E.; Riahi, K.; Ebi, K.L.; Hallegatte, S.; Carter, T.R.; Mathur, R.; van Vuuren, D.P.The new scenario framework for climate change research envisions combining pathways of future radiative forcing and their associated climate changes with alternative pathways of socioeconomic development in order to carry out research on climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. Here we propose a conceptual framework for how to define and develop a set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for use within the scenario framework. We define SSPs as reference pathways describing plausible alternative trends in the evolution of society and ecosystems over a century timescale, in the absence of climate change or climate policies. We introduce the concept of a space of challenges to adaptation and to mitigation that should be spanned by the SSPs, and discuss how particular trends in social, economic, and environmental development could be combined to produce such outcomes. A comparison to the narratives from the scenarios developed in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) illustrates how a starting point for developing SSPs can be defined. We suggest initial development of a set of basic SSPs that could then be extended to meet more specific purposes, and envision a process of application of basic and extended SSPs that would be iterative and potentially lead to modification of the original SSPs themselves.
- ItemClimate change in Afghanistan deduced from reanalysis and coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX)-South Asia simulations(Basel : MDPI, 2017) Aich, Valentin; Akhundzadah, Noor Ahmad; Knuerr, Alec; Khoshbeen, Ahmad Jamshed; Hattermann, Fred; Paeth, Heiko; Scanlon, Andrew; Paton, Eva NoraPast and the projected future climate change in Afghanistan has been analyzed systematically and differentiated with respect to its different climate regions to gain some first quantitative insights into Afghanistan’s vulnerability to ongoing and future climate changes. For this purpose, temperature, precipitation and five additional climate indices for extremes and agriculture assessments (heavy precipitation; spring precipitation; growing season length (GSL), the Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMI); and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) from the reanalysis data were examined for their consistency to identify changes in the past (data since 1950). For future changes (up to the year 2100), the same parameters were extracted from an ensemble of 12 downscaled regional climate models (RCM) of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-South Asia simulations for low and high emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). In the past, the climatic changes were mainly characterized by a mean temperature increase above global level of 1.8 °C from 1950 to 2010; uncertainty with regard to reanalyzed rainfall data limited a thorough analysis of past changes. Climate models projected the temperature trend to accelerate in the future, depending strongly on the global carbon emissions (2006–2050 Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5/8.5: 1.7/2.3 °C; 2006–2099: 2.7/6.4 °C, respectively). Despite the high uncertainty with regard to precipitation projections, it became apparent that the increasing evapotranspiration is likely to exacerbate Afghanistan’s already existing water stress, including a very strong increase of frequency and magnitude of heat waves. Overall, the results show that in addition to the already extensive deficiency in adaptation to current climate conditions, the situation will be aggravated in the future, particularly in regard to water management and agriculture. Thus, the results of this study underline the importance of adequate adaptation to climate change in Afghanistan. This is even truer taking into account that GSL is projected to increase substantially by around 20 days on average until 2050, which might open the opportunity for extended agricultural husbandry or even additional harvests when water resources are properly managed.
- ItemThe impact of climate change and variability on the generation of electrical power(Stuttgart : Gebrueder Borntraeger Verlagsbuchhandlung, 2015) Koch, H.; Vögele, S.; Hattermann, F.F.; Huang, S.