2019, Bühl, Johannes, Seifert, Patric, Engelmann, Ronny, Ansmann, Albert

The relationship between vertical air velocity at cloud base and primary ice formation has been measured for shallow mixed-phase cloud layers (thickness <380 m) by means of ground-based cloud radar and Doppler lidar. For layers with a cloud-top temperature below −12 °C, an increase of vertical-velocity standard deviation from 0.1 to 1.0 m s−1 leads to an increase in the mass flux of ice water by two orders of magnitude. The cloud layers under study were selected in such a way that secondary ice-formation processes played a minor role, and primary ice formation was the dominant source of ice formation. Phenomenological parameterizations of the ice mass and the ice mass flux as functions of standard deviation of vertical air velocity are given.

2020, Horton, Benjamin P., Khan, Nicole S., Cahill, Niamh, Lee, Janice S. H., Shaw, Timothy A., Garner, Andra J., Kemp, Andrew C., Engelhart, Simon E., Rahmstorf, Stefan

Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30–0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54–2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986–2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63–1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67–5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. © 2020, The Author(s).

2020, Horton, Benjamin P., Khan, Nicole S., Cahill, Niamh, Lee, Janice S. H., Shaw, Timothy A., Garner, Andra J., Kem, Andrew C, Engelhart, Simon E., Rahmstorf, Stefan

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper. © 2020, The Author(s).

2019, Martinsson, Bengt G., Friberg, Johan, Sandvik, Oscar S., Hermann, Markus, van Velthoven, Peter F. J., Zahn, Andreas

Stratospheric aerosol has long been seen as a pure mixture of sulfuric acid and water. Recent measurements, however, found a considerable carbonaceous fraction extending at least 8 km into the stratosphere. This fraction affects the aerosol optical depth (AOD) and the radiative properties, and hence the radiative forcing and climate impact of the stratospheric aerosol. Here we present an investigation based on a decade (2005–2014) of airborne aerosol sampling at 9–12 km altitude in the tropics and the northern hemisphere (NH) aboard the IAGOS-CARIBIC passenger aircraft. We find that the chemical composition of tropospheric aerosol in the tropics differs markedly from that at NH midlatitudes, and, that the carbonaceous stratospheric aerosol is oxygen-poor compared to the tropospheric aerosol. Furthermore, the carbonaceous and sulfurous components of the aerosol in the lowermost stratosphere (LMS) show strong increases in concentration connected with springtime subsidence from overlying stratospheric layers. The LMS concentrations significantly exceed those in the troposphere, thus clearly indicating a stratospheric production of not only the well-established sulfurous aerosol, but also a considerable but less understood carbonaceous component. © 2019, The Author(s).