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- ItemWater resources planning in the Upper Niger River basin: Are there gaps between water demand and supply?(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2019) Liersch, Stefan; Fournet, Samuel; Koch, Hagen; Djibo, Abdouramane Gado; Reinhardt, Julia; Kortlandt, Joyce; Van Weert, Frank; Seidou, Ousmane; Klop, Erik; Baker, Chris; Hattermann, Fred F.Study region: The Upper Niger and Bani River basins in West Africa. Study focus: The growing demand for food, water, and energy led Mali and Guinea to develop ambitious hydropower and irrigation plans, including the construction of a new dam and the extension of irrigation schemes. These two developments will take place upstream of sensible ecosystem hotspots while the feasibility of development plans in terms of water availability and sustainability is questionable. Where agricultural development in past decades focused mainly on intensifying dry-season crops cultivation, future plans include extension in both the dry and wet seasons. New hydrological insights for the region: Today's irrigation demand corresponds to 7% of the average annual Niger discharge and could account to one third in 2045. An extension of irrigated agriculture is possible in the wet season, while extending dry-season cropping would be largely compromised with the one major existing Sélingué dam. An additional large Fomi or Moussako dam would not completely satisfy dry-season irrigation demands in the 2045 scenario but would reduce the estimated supply gap from 36% to 14%. However, discharge peaks may decrease by 40% reducing the inundated area in the Inner Niger Delta by 21%, while average annual discharge decreases by 30%. Sustainable development should therefore consider investments in water-saving irrigation and management practices to enhance the feasibility of the envisaged irrigation plans instead of completely relying on the construction of a flow regime altering dam. © 2019 The Authors
- ItemClimate change impact on regional floods in the Carpathian region(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2019) Didovets, Iulii; Krysanova, Valentina; Bürger, Gerd; Snizhko, Sergiy; Balabukh, Vira; Bronstert, AxelStudy region: Tisza and Prut catchments, originating on the slopes of the Carpathian mountains. Study focus: The study reported here investigates (i) climate change impacts on flood risk in the region, and (ii) uncertainty related to hydrological modelling, downscaling techniques and climate projections. The climate projections used in the study were derived from five GCMs, downscaled either dynamically with RCMs or with the statistical downscaling model XDS. The resulting climate change scenarios were applied to drive the eco-hydrological model SWIM, which was calibrated and validated for the catchments in advance using observed climate and hydrological data. The changes in the 30-year flood hazards and 98 and 95 percentiles of discharge were evaluated for the far future period (2071–2100) in comparison with the reference period (1981–2010). New hydrological insights for the region: The majority of model outputs under RCP 4.5 show a small to strong increase of the 30-year flood level in the Tisza ranging from 4.5% to 62%, and moderate increase in the Prut ranging from 11% to 22%. The impact results under RCP 8.5 are more uncertain with changes in both directions due to high uncertainties in GCM-RCM climate projections, downscaling methods and the low density of available climate stations. © 2019 The Authors
- ItemMulti-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2020) Ide, Tobias; Brzoska, Michael; Donges, Jonathan F.; Schleussner, Carl-FriedrichClimate-related disasters are among the most societally disruptive impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Their potential impact on the risk of armed conflict is heavily debated in the context of the security implications of climate change. Yet, evidence for such climate-conflict-disaster links remains limited and contested. One reason for this is that existing studies do not triangulate insights from different methods and pay little attention to relevant context factors and especially causal pathways. By combining statistical approaches with systematic evidence from QCA and qualitative case studies in an innovative multi-method research design, we show that climate-related disasters increase the risk of armed conflict onset. This link is highly context-dependent and we find that countries with large populations, political exclusion of ethnic groups, and a low level of human development are particularly vulnerable. For such countries, almost one third of all conflict onsets over the 1980-2016 period have been preceded by a disaster within 7 days. The robustness of the effect is reduced for longer time spans. Case study evidence points to improved opportunity structures for armed groups rather than aggravated grievances as the main mechanism connecting disasters and conflict onset. © 2020 The Authors
- ItemShared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: The Eur-Agri-SSPs(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2020) Le Mouël, Chantal; Mathijs, Erik; Mehdi, Bano; Mittenzwei, Klaus; Mora, Olivier; Øistad, Knut; Øygarden, Lillian; Priess, Jörg A.; Reidsma, Pytrik; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Schönhart, Martin; Mitter, Hermine; Techen, Anja-K.; Sinabell, Franz; Helming, Katharina; Schmid, Erwin; Bodirsky, Benjamin L.; Holman, Ian; Kok, Kasper; Lehtonen, Heikki; Leip, AdrianScenarios describe plausible and internally consistent views of the future. They can be used by scientists, policymakers and entrepreneurs to explore the challenges of global environmental change given an appropriate level of spatial and sectoral detail and systematic development. We followed a nine-step protocol to extend and enrich a set of global scenarios – the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) – providing regional and sectoral detail for European agriculture and food systems using a one-to-one nesting participatory approach. The resulting five Eur-Agri-SSPs are titled (1) Agriculture on sustainable paths, (2) Agriculture on established paths, (3) Agriculture on separated paths, (4) Agriculture on unequal paths, and (5) Agriculture on high-tech paths. They describe alternative plausible qualitative evolutions of multiple drivers of particular importance and high uncertainty for European agriculture and food systems. The added value of the protocol-based storyline development process lies in the conceptual and methodological transparency and rigor; the stakeholder driven selection of the storyline elements; and consistency checks within and between the storylines. Compared to the global SSPs, the five Eur-Agri-SSPs provide rich thematic and regional details and are thus a solid basis for integrated assessments of agriculture and food systems and their response to future socio-economic and environmental changes. © 2020 The Author(s)
- ItemMultiple cropping systems of the world and the potential for increasing cropping intensity(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2020) Waha, Katharina; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Portmann, Felix T.; Siebert, Stefan; Thornton, Philip K.; Bondeau, Alberte; Herrero, MarioMultiple cropping, defined as harvesting more than once a year, is a widespread land management strategy in tropical and subtropical agriculture. It is a way of intensifying agricultural production and diversifying the crop mix for economic and environmental benefits. Here we present the first global gridded data set of multiple cropping systems and quantify the physical area of more than 200 systems, the global multiple cropping area and the potential for increasing cropping intensity. We use national and sub-national data on monthly crop-specific growing areas around the year 2000 (1998–2002) for 26 crop groups, global cropland extent and crop harvested areas to identify sequential cropping systems of two or three crops with non-overlapping growing seasons. We find multiple cropping systems on 135 million hectares (12% of global cropland) with 85 million hectares in irrigated agriculture. 34%, 13% and 10% of the rice, wheat and maize area, respectively are under multiple cropping, demonstrating the importance of such cropping systems for cereal production. Harvesting currently single cropped areas a second time could increase global harvested areas by 87–395 million hectares, which is about 45% lower than previous estimates. Some scenarios of intensification indicate that it could be enough land to avoid expanding physical cropland into other land uses but attainable intensification will depend on the local context and the crop yields attainable in the second cycle and its related environmental costs. © 2020 The Author(s)
- ItemCorrigendum to “Dynamics of rural livelihoods and rainfall variability in Northern Ethiopian Highlands” [Clim. Risk Manage. 25 (2019) 100195](S2212096318300378)(10.1016/j.crm.2019.100195)(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2020) Adamseged, Muluken E.; Frija, Aymen; Thiel, AndreasThe authors regret for not properly acknowledging the contribution of the Consortium Research Program (CRP) on Livestock, led by ILRI with contribution of ICARDA. Funding from the CGIAR Research Program on Livestock (flagship 5 on “Livestock livelihoods and agri-food systems flagship”) is acknowledged for their support of staff time of Dr. Aymen Frija. The authors thank all donors and organizations who globally support the work of the CGIAR Research Program on Livestock through their contributions to the CGIAR system. The authors would like to apologise for any inconvenience caused. © 2020 The Author(s)
- ItemDynamics of rural livelihoods and rainfall variability in Northern Ethiopian Highlands(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2019) Adamseged, Muluken E.; Frija, Aymen; Thiel, Andreas[No abstract available]
- ItemAdjusting climate model bias for agricultural impact assessment: How to cut the mustard(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2019) Galmarini, S.; Cannon, A.J.; Ceglar, A.; Christensen, O.B.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, N.; Dentener, F.; Doblas-Reyes, F.J.; Dosio, A.; Gutierrez, J.M.; Iturbide, M.; Jury, M.; Lange, S.; Loukos, H.; Maiorano, A.; Maraun, D.; McGinnis, S.; Nikulin, G.; Riccio, A.; Sanchez, E.; Solazzo, E.; Toreti, A.; Vrac, M.; Zampieri, M.[No abstract available]
- ItemUnderstanding adaptive capacity of smallholder African indigenous vegetable farmers to climate change in Kenya(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2020) Chepkoech, Winifred; Mungai, Nancy W.; Stöber, Silke; Lotze-Campen, HermannUnderstanding the adaptive capacity (AC) of farmers is crucial to planning effective adaptation. Action to promote farmers’ AC is required because climate change (CC) is resulting in unpredictable alterations in weather patterns. Based on the sustainable livelihoods framework (SLF), this study explored how access to natural, physical, financial, social and human capitals enhances the AC. Quantitative data from 269 African indigenous vegetable (AIV) farmers in three selected agro-climatic zones in Kenya were analysed. Four indicators in each capital were selected based on previous studies and judgments collected from an expert online ranking survey (n = 35). The Kruskal-Wallis H test and an independent sample t-test were used to test the independence of AC scores and access to the different resources. The findings showed that the majority of farmers (53%) had a moderate AC, while fewer (32%) and (15%) had low or high AC levels respectively. Disparities in adaptive capacity scores were recorded between respondents in terms of their age, marital status and location. Farmers had high access to social capital but low access to financial, natural and human capitals. Female farmers showed lower capacities in the areas of financial, human and natural resources, while their male counterparts had low access to some human and social capitals. Resilient interventions that target individuals with low adaptive capacities are required. © 2020 The Authors
- ItemSeismic interpretation and structural restoration of the Heligoland glaciotectonic thrust-fault complex: Implications for multiple deformation during (pre-)Elsterian to Warthian ice advances into the southern North Sea Basin(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2020) Winsemann, Jutta; Koopmann, Hannes; Tanner, David C.; Lutz, Rüdiger; Lang, Jörg; Brandes, Christian; Gaedicke, ChristophDespite a long history of research, the locations of former ice-margins in the North Sea Basin are still uncertain. In this study, we present new palaeogeographic reconstructions of (pre-) Elsterian and Warthian ice-margins in the southeastern North Sea Basin, which were previously unknown. The reconstructions are based on the integration of palaeo-ice flow data derived from glaciotectonic thrusts, tunnel valleys and mega-scale glacial lineations. We focus on a huge glaciotectonic thrust complex located about 10 km north of Heligoland and 50 km west of the North Frisian coast of Schleswig-Holstein (Northern Germany). Multi-channel high-resolution 2D seismic reflection data show a thrust-fault complex in the upper 300 ms TWT (ca. 240 m) of seismic data. This thrust-fault complex consists of mainly Neogene delta sediments, covers an area of 350 km2, and forms part of a large belt of glaciotectonic complexes that stretches from offshore Denmark via northern Germany to Poland. The deformation front of the Heligoland glaciotectonic complex trends approximately NNE-SSW. The total length of the glaciotectonic thrust complex is approximately 15 km. The thrust faults share a common detachment surface, located at a depth of 250–300 ms (TWT) (200–240 m) below sea level. The detachment surface most probably formed at a pronounced rheological boundary between Upper Miocene fine-grained pro-delta deposits and coarser-grained delta-front deposits, although we cannot rule out that deep permafrost in the glacier foreland played a role for the location of this detachment surface. Restored cross-sections reveal the shortening of the complex along the detachment to have been on average 23% (ranging from ca. 16%–50%). The determined ice movement direction from east-southeast to southeast suggests deformation by an ice advance from the Baltic region. The chronospatial relationship of the thrust-fault complex and adjacent northwest-southeast to northeast-southwest trending Elsterian tunnel valleys implies a pre-Elsterian (MIS 16?) age of the glaciotectonic complex. However, the age of these Elsterian tunnel valleys is poorly constrained and the glaciotectonic complex of Heligoland may also have been formed during an early Elsterian ice advance into the southeastern North Sea Basin. The glaciotectonic complex underwent further shortening and the Elsterian tunnel-valley fills that were incised into the glaciotectonic complex were partly deformed during the Saalian Drenthe and Warthe (1) ice advances.