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- ItemImpacts of climate change on agro-climatic suitability of major food crops in Ghana(San Francisco, California, US : PLOS, 2020) Chemura, Abel; Schauberger, Bernhard; Gornott, ChristophClimate change is projected to impact food production stability in many tropical countries through impacts on crop potential. However, without quantitative assessments of where, by how much and to what extent crop production is possible now and under future climatic conditions, efforts to design and implement adaptation strategies under Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Action Plans (NAP) are unsystematic. In this study, we used extreme gradient boosting, a machine learning approach to model the current climatic suitability for maize, sorghum, cassava and groundnut in Ghana using yield data and agronomically important variables. We then used multi-model future climate projections for the 2050s and two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) to predict changes in the suitability range of these crops. We achieved a good model fit in determining suitability classes for all crops (AUC = 0.81–0.87). Precipitation-based factors are suggested as most important in determining crop suitability, though the importance is crop-specific. Under projected climatic conditions, optimal suitability areas will decrease for all crops except for groundnuts under RCP8.5 (no change: 0%), with greatest losses for maize (12% under RCP2.6 and 14% under RCP8.5). Under current climatic conditions, 18% of Ghana has optimal suitability for two crops, 2% for three crops with no area having optimal suitability for all the four crops. Under projected climatic conditions, areas with optimal suitability for two and three crops will decrease by 12% as areas having moderate and marginal conditions for multiple crops increase. We also found that although the distribution of multiple crop suitability is spatially distinct, cassava and groundnut will be more simultaneously suitable for the south while groundnut and sorghum will be more suitable for the northern parts of Ghana under projected climatic conditions.
- ItemPotential for Early Forecast of Moroccan Wheat Yields Based on Climatic Drivers(Hoboken, NJ [u.a.] : Wiley, 2020) Lehmann, J.; Kretschmer, M.; Schauberger, B.; Wechsung, F.Wheat production plays an important role in Morocco. Current wheat forecast systems use weather and vegetation data during the crop growing phase, thus limiting the earliest possible release date to early spring. However, Morocco's wheat production is mostly rainfed and thus strongly tied to fluctuations in rainfall, which in turn depend on slowly evolving climate dynamics. This offers a source of predictability at longer time scales. Using physically guided causal discovery algorithms, we extract climate precursors for wheat yield variability from gridded fields of geopotential height and sea surface temperatures which show potential for accurate yield forecasts already in December, with around 50% explained variance in an out-of-sample cross validation. The detected interactions are physically meaningful and consistent with documented ocean-atmosphere feedbacks. Reliable yield forecasts at such long lead times could provide farmers and policy makers with necessary information for early action and strategic adaptation measurements to support food security. ©2020. The Authors.
- ItemTowards the automatic detection of social biomarkers in autism spectrum disorder: introducing the simulated interaction task (SIT)([Basingstoke] : Macmillan, 2020) Drimalla, Hanna; Scheffer, Tobias; Landwehr, Niels; Baskow, Irina; Roepke, Stefan; Behnia, Behnoush; Dziobek, IsabelSocial interaction deficits are evident in many psychiatric conditions and specifically in autism spectrum disorder (ASD), but hard to assess objectively. We present a digital tool to automatically quantify biomarkers of social interaction deficits: the simulated interaction task (SIT), which entails a standardized 7-min simulated dialog via video and the automated analysis of facial expressions, gaze behavior, and voice characteristics. In a study with 37 adults with ASD without intellectual disability and 43 healthy controls, we show the potential of the tool as a diagnostic instrument and for better description of ASD-associated social phenotypes. Using machine-learning tools, we detected individuals with ASD with an accuracy of 73%, sensitivity of 67%, and specificity of 79%, based on their facial expressions and vocal characteristics alone. Especially reduced social smiling and facial mimicry as well as a higher voice fundamental frequency and harmony-to-noise-ratio were characteristic for individuals with ASD. The time-effective and cost-effective computer-based analysis outperformed a majority vote and performed equal to clinical expert ratings. © 2020, The Author(s).
- ItemLearning from urban form to predict building heights(San Francisco, California, US : PLOS, 2020) Milojevic-DupontI, Nikola; Hans, Nicolai; Kaack, Lynn H.; Zumwald, Marius; Andrieux, François; de Barros Soares, Daniel; Lohrey, Steffen; PichlerI, Peter-Paul; Creutzig, FelixUnderstanding cities as complex systems, sustainable urban planning depends on reliable high-resolution data, for example of the building stock to upscale region-wide retrofit policies. For some cities and regions, these data exist in detailed 3D models based on real-world measurements. However, they are still expensive to build and maintain, a significant challenge, especially for small and medium-sized cities that are home to the majority of the European population. New methods are needed to estimate relevant building stock characteristics reliably and cost-effectively. Here, we present a machine learning based method for predicting building heights, which is based only on open-access geospatial data on urban form, such as building footprints and street networks. The method allows to predict building heights for regions where no dedicated 3D models exist currently. We train our model using building data from four European countries (France, Italy, the Netherlands, and Germany) and find that the morphology of the urban fabric surrounding a given building is highly predictive of the height of the building. A test on the German state of Brandenburg shows that our model predicts building heights with an average error well below the typical floor height (about 2.5 m), without having access to training data from Germany. Furthermore, we show that even a small amount of local height data obtained by citizens substantially improves the prediction accuracy. Our results illustrate the possibility of predicting missing data on urban infrastructure; they also underline the value of open government data and volunteered geographic information for scientific applications, such as contextual but scalable strategies to mitigate climate change.
- ItemOER Recommendations to Support Career Development(Piscataway, NJ : IEEE, 2020) Tavakoli, Mohammadreza; Faraji, Ali; Mol, Stefan T.; Kismihók, GáborThis Work in Progress Research paper departs from the recent, turbulent changes in global societies, forcing many citizens to re-skill themselves to (re)gain employment. Learners therefore need to be equipped with skills to be autonomous and strategic about their own skill development. Subsequently, high-quality, on-line, personalized educational content and services are also essential to serve this high demand for learning content. Open Educational Resources (OERs) have high potential to contribute to the mitigation of these problems, as they are available in a wide range of learning and occupational contexts globally. However, their applicability has been limited, due to low metadata quality and complex quality control. These issues resulted in a lack of personalised OER functions, like recommendation and search. Therefore, we suggest a novel, personalised OER recommendation method to match skill development targets with open learning content. This is done by: 1) using an OER quality prediction model based on metadata, OER properties, and content; 2) supporting learners to set individual skill targets based on actual labour market information, and 3) building a personalized OER recommender to help learners to master their skill targets. Accordingly, we built a prototype focusing on Data Science related jobs, and evaluated this prototype with 23 data scientists in different expertise levels. Pilot participants used our prototype for at least 30 minutes and commented on each of the recommended OERs. As a result, more than 400 recommendations were generated and 80.9% of the recommendations were reported as useful.
- ItemEarth system data cubes unravel global multivariate dynamics(Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2020) Mahecha, Miguel D.; Gans, Fabian; Brandt, Gunnar; Christiansen, Rune; Cornell, Sarah E.; Fomferra, Normann; Kraemer, Guido; Peters, Jonas; Bodesheim, Paul; Camps-Valls, Gustau; Donges, Jonathan F.; Dorigo, Wouter; Estupinan-Suarez, Lina M.; Gutierrez-Velez, Victor H.; Gutwin, Martin; Jung, Martin; Londoño, Maria C.; Miralles, Diego G.; Papastefanou, Phillip; Reichstein, MarkusUnderstanding Earth system dynamics in light of ongoing human intervention and dependency remains a major scientific challenge. The unprecedented availability of data streams describing different facets of the Earth now offers fundamentally new avenues to address this quest. However, several practical hurdles, especially the lack of data interoperability, limit the joint potential of these data streams. Today, many initiatives within and beyond the Earth system sciences are exploring new approaches to overcome these hurdles and meet the growing interdisciplinary need for data-intensive research; using data cubes is one promising avenue. Here, we introduce the concept of Earth system data cubes and how to operate on them in a formal way. The idea is that treating multiple data dimensions, such as spatial, temporal, variable, frequency, and other grids alike, allows effective application of user-defined functions to co-interpret Earth observations and/or model-data integration. An implementation of this concept combines analysis-ready data cubes with a suitable analytic interface. In three case studies, we demonstrate how the concept and its implementation facilitate the execution of complex workflows for research across multiple variables, and spatial and temporal scales: (1) summary statistics for ecosystem and climate dynamics; (2) intrinsic dimensionality analysis on multiple timescales; and (3) model-data integration. We discuss the emerging perspectives for investigating global interacting and coupled phenomena in observed or simulated data. In particular, we see many emerging perspectives of this approach for interpreting large-scale model ensembles. The latest developments in machine learning, causal inference, and model-data integration can be seamlessly implemented in the proposed framework, supporting rapid progress in data-intensive research across disciplinary boundaries. © 2020 Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.. All rights reserved.
- ItemA Recommender System For Open Educational Videos Based On Skill Requirements(Ithaca, NY : Cornell University, 2020) Tavakoli, Mohammadreza; Hakimov, Sherzod; Ewerth, Ralph; Kismihók, GáborIn this paper, we suggest a novel method to help learners find relevant open educational videos to master skills demanded on the labour market. We have built a prototype, which 1) applies text classification and text mining methods on job vacancy announcements to match jobs and their required skills; 2) predicts the quality of videos; and 3) creates an open educational video recommender system to suggest personalized learning content to learners. For the first evaluation of this prototype we focused on the area of data science related jobs. Our prototype was evaluated by in-depth, semi-structured interviews. 15 subject matter experts provided feedback to assess how our recommender prototype performs in terms of its objectives, logic, and contribution to learning. More than 250 videos were recommended, and 82.8% of these recommendations were treated as useful by the interviewees. Moreover, interviews revealed that our personalized video recommender system, has the potential to improve the learning experience.