12 results
Search Results
Now showing 1 - 10 of 12
- ItemAssessment of Socio-Economic and Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Four European Lagoon Catchments(New York, NY : Springer, 2019) Stefanova, Anastassi; Hesse, Cornelia; Krysanova, Valentina; Volk, MartinThis study demonstrates the importance of considering potential land use and management changes in climate impact research. By taking into account possible trends of economic development and environmental awareness, we assess effects of global warming on water availability and quality in the catchments of four European lagoons: Ria de Aveiro (Portugal), Mar Menor (Spain), Vistula Lagoon (Poland and Russia), and Tyligulskyi Liman (Ukraine). Different setups of the process-based soil and water integrated model (SWIM), representing one reference and four socio-economic scenarios for each study area: the “business as usual”, “crisis”, “managed horizons”, and “set-aside” scenarios are driven by sets of 15 climate scenarios for a reference (1971–2000) and near future (2011–2040) scenario period. Modeling results suggest a large spatial variability of potential impacts across the study areas, due to differences in the projected precipitation trends and the current environmental and socio-economic conditions. While climate change may reduce water and nutrients input to the Ria de Aveiro and Tyligulsyi Liman and increase water inflow to the Vistula Lagoon the socio-economic scenarios and their implications may balance out or reverse these trends. In the intensely managed Mar Menor catchment, climate change has no notable direct impact on water resources, but changes in land use and water management may certainly aggravate the current environmental problems. The great heterogeneity among results does not allow formulating adaptation or mitigation measures at pan-European level, as initially intended by this study. It rather implies the need of a regional approach in coastal zone management. © 2019, The Author(s).
- ItemDesign and quality criteria for archetype analysis(Wolfville, Nova Scotia : Resilience Alliance, 2019) Eisenack, Klaus; Villamayor-Tomas, Sergio; Epstein, Graham; Kimmich, Christian; Magliocca, Nicholas; Manuel-Navarrete, David; Oberlack, Christoph; Roggero, Matteo; Sietz, DianaA key challenge in addressing the global degradation of natural resources and the environment is to effectively transfer successful strategies across heterogeneous contexts. Archetype analysis is a particularly salient approach in this regard that helps researchers to understand and compare patterns of (un)sustainability in heterogeneous cases. Archetype analysis avoids traps of overgeneralization and ideography by identifying reappearing but nonuniversal patterns that hold for well-defined subsets of cases. It can be applied by researchers working in inter-or transdisciplinary settings to study sustainability issues from a broad range of theoretical and methodological standpoints. However, there is still an urgent need for quality standards to guide the design of theoretically rigorous and practically useful archetype analyses. To this end, we propose four quality criteria and corresponding research strategies to address them: (1) specify the domain of validity for each archetype, (2) ensure that archetypes can be combined to characterize single cases, (3) explicitly navigate levels of abstraction, and (4) obtain a fit between attribute configurations, theories, and empirical domains of validity. These criteria are based on a stocktaking of current methodological challenges in archetypes research, including: to demonstrate the validity of the analysis, delineate boundaries of archetypes, and select appropriate attributes to define them. We thus contribute to a better common understanding of the approach and to the improvement of the research design of future archetype analyses. © 2019 by the author(s).
- ItemArchetype analysis in sustainability research: meanings, motivations, and evidence-based policy making(Wolfville, Nova Scotia : Resilience Alliance, 2019) Oberlack, Christoph; Sietz, Diana; Bürgi Bonanomi, Elisabeth; de Bremond, Ariane; Dell'Angelo, Jampel; Eisenack, Klaus; Ellis, Erle C.; Epstein, Graham; Giger, Markus; Heinimann, Andreas; Kimmich, Christian; Kok, Marcel TJ; Manuel-Navarrete, David; Messerli, Peter; Meyfroidt, Patrick; Václavík, Tomáš; Villamayor-Tomas, SergioArchetypes are increasingly used as a methodological approach to understand recurrent patterns in variables and processes that shape the sustainability of social-ecological systems. The rapid growth and diversification of archetype analyses has generated variations, inconsistencies, and confusion about the meanings, potential, and limitations of archetypes. Based on a systematic review, a survey, and a workshop series, we provide a consolidated perspective on the core features and diverse meanings of archetype analysis in sustainability research, the motivations behind it, and its policy relevance. We identify three core features of archetype analysis: Recurrent patterns, multiple models, and intermediate abstraction. Two gradients help to apprehend the variety of meanings of archetype analysis that sustainability researchers have developed: (1) understanding archetypes as building blocks or as case typologies and (2) using archetypes for pattern recognition, diagnosis, or scenario development. We demonstrate how archetype analysis has been used to synthesize results from case studies, bridge the gap between global narratives and local realities, foster methodological interplay, and transfer knowledge about sustainability strategies across cases. We also critically examine the potential and limitations of archetype analysis in supporting evidence-based policy making through context-sensitive generalizations with case-level empirical validity. Finally, we identify future priorities, with a view to leveraging the full potential of archetype analysis for supporting sustainable development. © 2019 by the author(s).
- ItemSocial innovation in community energy in Europe: A review of the evidence(Lausanne : Frontiers Media, 2019) Hewitt, Richard J.; Bradley, Nicholas; Compagnucci, Andrea Baggio; Barlagne, Carla; Ceglarz, Andrzej; Cremades, Roger; McKeen, Margaret; Otto, Ilona M.; Slee, BillCitizen-driven Renewable Energy (RE) projects of various kinds, known collectively as community energy (CE), have an important part to play in the worldwide transition to cleaner energy systems. On the basis of evidence from 8 European countries, we investigate CE, over approximately the last 50 years (c.1970-2018), through the lens of Social Innovation (SI). We carry out a detailed review of literature around the social dimension of renewable energy; we collect, describe and map CE initiatives from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden, and the UK; and we unpack the SI concept into 4 operational criteria which we suggest are essential to recognizing SI in CE. These are: (1) Crises and opportunities; (2) the agency of civil society; (3) reconfiguration of social practices, institutions and networks; (4) new ways of working. We identify three main phases of SI in CE. The environmental movements of the 1960s and the "oil shocks" of the 1970s provided the catalyst for a series of innovative societal responses around energy and self-sufficiency. A second wave of SI relates to the mainstreaming of RE and associated government support mechanisms. In this phase, with some important exceptions, successful CE initiatives were mainly confined to those countries where they were already embedded as innovators in the previous phase. The third phase of CE innovation relates to the societal response to the Great Recession that began in 2008 and lasted most of the subsequent decade. CE initiatives formed around this time were also strongly focused around democratization of energy and citizen empowerment in the context of rising energy prices, a weak economy, and a production and supply system dominated by excessively powerful multinational energy firms. CE initiatives today are more diverse than at any time previously, and are likely to continue to act as incubators for pioneering initiatives addressing virtually all aspects of energy. However, large multinational energy firms remain the dominant vehicle for delivery of the energy transition, and the apparent excitement in European policy circles for "community energy" does not extend to democratization of energy or genuine empowerment of citizens. © 2019 Hewitt, Bradley, Baggio Compagnucci, Barlagne, Ceglarz, Cremades, McKeen, Otto and Slee.
- ItemA Rigorous Statistical Assessment of Recent Trends in Intensity of Heavy Precipitation Over Germany(Lausanne : Frontiers Media, 2019) Passow, Christian; Donner, Reik V.Comprehensive and robust statistical estimates of trends during heavy precipitation events are essential in understanding the impact of past and future climate changes in the hydrological cycle. However, methods commonly used in extreme value statistics (EVS) are often unable to detect significant trends, because of their methodologically motivated reduction of the sample size and strong assumptions regarding the underlying distribution. Here, we propose linear quantile regression (QR) as a complementary and robust alternative to estimating trends in heavy precipitation events. QR does not require any assumptions on the underlying distribution and is also able to estimate trends for the full span of the distribution without any reduction of the available data. As an example, we study here a very dense and homogenized data set of daily precipitation amounts over Germany for the period between 1951 and 2006 to compare the results of QR and the so-called block maxima approach, a classical method in EVS. Both methods indicate an overall increase in the intensity of heavy precipitation events. The strongest trends can be found in regions with an elevation of about 500 m above sea level. In turn, larger spatial clusters of moderate or even decreasing trends can only be found in Northeastern Germany. In conclusion, both methods show comparable results. QR, however, allows for a more flexible and comprehensive study of precipitation events. © Copyright © 2019 Passow and Donner.
- ItemA nexus approach for the MENA region-from concept to knowledge to action(Lausanne : Frontiers Media, 2019) Hoff, Holger; Alrahaife, Sajed Aqel; El Hajj, Rana; Lohr, Kerstin; Mengoub, Fatima Ezzahra; Farajalla, Nadim; Fritzsche, Kerstin; Jobbins, Guy; Özerol, Gül; Schultz, Robert; Ulrich, AnneThere is wide agreement that a nexus or integrated approach to managing and governing natural resources such as land, water, and energy can improve environmental, climate, human, and political security. However, few if any countries in the MENA region have made progress in implementing such an approach. There appear to be several constraints inhibiting the development and adoption of nexus approaches. These constraints include strong sectoral silos, insufficient incentives for integrated planning and policy making at all levels, and limited vision, knowledge, and practical experience to guide successful implementation. In turn, the limited implementation and hence lack of empirical evidence of a nexus approach, which could demonstrate its benefits, does little to strengthen political will for the development of adequate incentives, structures, and procedures. Against this backdrop, this paper presents five case studies which take an integrated approach, in three MENA countries, namely Jordan, Lebanon, and Morocco. Based on an analytical framework developed here, the paper analyses and compares the success factors for nexus implementation, and also for transfer and upscaling. The analysis emphasizes the need for appropriate framework conditions, targeted investments and pioneering actors, to make integrated approaches across sectors and levels work. With the evidence presented, the paper aims to set in motion a positive or virtuous cycle of generating more nexus evidence, improved framework conditions, further nexus implementation on the ground, and from that even more nexus evidence. Finally, the paper contributes to overcoming the repeated requests for better definition and conceptualization of the nexus, which often has slowed down adoption of the concept. © 2019 Hoff, Alrahaife, El Hajj, Lohr, Mengoub, Farajalla, Fritzsche, Jobbins, özerol, Schultz and Ulrich.
- ItemAssessing human and environmental pressures of global land-use change 2000-2010(Cambridge : Cambridge Univ. Press, 2019) Creutzig, Felix; Bren d'Amour, Christopher; Weddige, Ulf; Fuss, Sabine; Beringer, Tim; Gläser, Anne; Kalkuhl, Matthias; Steckel, Jan Christoph; Radebach, Alexander; Edenhofer, OttmarGlobal land is turning into an increasingly scarce resource. We here present a comprehensive assessment of co-occuring land-use change from 2000 until 2010, compiling existing spatially explicit data sources for different land uses, and building on a rich literature addressing specific land-use changes in all world regions. This review systematically categorizes patterns of land use, including regional urbanization and agricultural expansion but also globally telecoupled land-use change for all world regions. Managing land-use change patterns across the globe requires global governance. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of the extent and density of multiple drivers and impacts of land-use change. We combine and reanalyze spatially explicit data of global land-use change between 2000 and 2010 for population, livestock, cropland, terrestrial carbon and biodiversity. We find pervasive pressure on biodiversity but varying patterns of gross land-use changes across world regions. Our findings enable a classification of land-use patterns into three types. The 'consumers' type, displayed in Europe and North America, features high land footprints, reduced direct human pressures due to intensification of agriculture, and increased reliance on imports, enabling a partial recovery of terrestrial carbon and reducing pressure on biodiversity. In the 'producer' type, most clearly epitomized by Latin America, telecoupled land-use links drive biodiversity and carbon loss. In the 'mover' type, we find strong direct domestic pressures, but with a wide variety of outcomes, ranging from a concurrent expansion of population, livestock and croplands in Sub-Saharan Africa at the cost of natural habitats to strong pressure on cropland by urbanization in Eastern Asia. In addition, anthropogenic climate change has already left a distinct footprint on global land-use change. Our data- and literature-based assessment reveals region-specific opportunities for managing global land-use change. © 2019 The Author(s).
- ItemAdjusting climate model bias for agricultural impact assessment: How to cut the mustard(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2019) Galmarini, S.; Cannon, A.J.; Ceglar, A.; Christensen, O.B.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, N.; Dentener, F.; Doblas-Reyes, F.J.; Dosio, A.; Gutierrez, J.M.; Iturbide, M.; Jury, M.; Lange, S.; Loukos, H.; Maiorano, A.; Maraun, D.; McGinnis, S.; Nikulin, G.; Riccio, A.; Sanchez, E.; Solazzo, E.; Toreti, A.; Vrac, M.; Zampieri, M.[No abstract available]
- ItemTypology of vulnerability of wheat farmers in Northeast Iran and implications for their adaptive capacity(Philadelphia, Pa : Taylor & Francis, 2019) Nooghabi, Saeedeh Nazari; Fleskens, Luuk; Sietz, Diana; Azadi, HosseinThis study is focused on understanding sources and patterns of vulnerability of wheat smallholder farmers in Northeast Iran. We conducted a farm household survey and recorded multiple environmental and socio-economic attributes of 391 wheat smallholder farmers. A Vulnerability Scoping Diagram and Principal Component Analysis served to identify key factors determining wheat farmer's vulnerability. Also, we performed a cluster analysis to classify wheat farmers into three vulnerability types. Although drought affects all types as main environmental stressor, only for Cluster 2 was it the key vulnerability factor. For Clusters 1 and 3 socio-economic vulnerability components prevailed: for farmers categorized in Cluster 1 land consolidation was the main problem, while the current wheat import policy was the key problem for Cluster 3 farmers. Multiple tailored policies are needed that reduce the vulnerability of wheat farmers in all clusters. Supportive government policies should for example focus on avoiding price distortions from wheat imports for Cluster 3, land consolidation for Cluster 1 and collective tackling of pests and weeds for Cluster 2. Simultaneous provision of farm advisory services will benefit farmers of Clusters 1 and 3, while availability of improved seeds (drought-tolerant varieties) and other inputs will lower the environmental vulnerability of all farmers. © 2019, © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
- ItemSynthesizing plausible futures for biodiversity and ecosystem services in europe and central asia using scenario archetypes(Wolfville, Nova Scotia : Resilience Alliance, 2019) Harrison, Paula A.; Harmáčková, Zuzana V.; Karabulut, Armağan Aloe; Brotons, Lluis; Cantele, Matthew; Claudet, Joachim; Dunford, Robert W.; Guisan, Antoine; Holman, Ian P.; Jacobs, Sander; Kok, Kasper; Lobanova, Anastasia; Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra; Pedde, Simona; Rixen, Christian; Santos-Martín, Fernando; Schlaepfer, Martin A.; Solidoro, Cosimo; Sonrel, Anthony; Hauck, JenniferScenarios are a useful tool to explore possible futures of social-ecological systems. The number of scenarios has increased dramatically over recent decades, with a large diversity in temporal and spatial scales, purposes, themes, development methods, and content. Scenario archetypes generically describe future developments and can be useful in meaningfully classifying scenarios, structuring and summarizing the overwhelming amount of information, and enabling scientific outputs to more effectively interface with decision-making frameworks. The Intergovernmental Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) faced this challenge and used scenario archetypes in its assessment of future interactions between nature and society. We describe the use of scenario archetypes in the IPBES Regional Assessment of Europe and Central Asia. Six scenario archetypes for the region are described in terms of their driver assumptions and impacts on nature (including biodiversity) and its contributions to people (including ecosystem services): Business-as-usual, economic optimism, regional competition, regional sustainability, global sustainable development, and inequality. The analysis shows that trade-offs between nature’s contributions to people are projected under different scenario archetypes. However, the means of resolving these trade-offs depend on differing political and societal value judgements within each scenario archetype. Scenarios that include proactive decision making on environmental issues, environmental management approaches that support multifunctionality, and mainstreaming environmental issues across sectors, are generally more successful in mitigating tradeoffs than isolated environmental policies. Furthermore, those scenario archetypes that focus on achieving a balanced supply of nature’s contributions to people and that incorporate a diversity of values are estimated to achieve more policy goals and targets, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Convention on Biological Diversity Aichi targets. The scenario archetypes approach is shown to be helpful in supporting science-policy dialogue for proactive decision making that anticipates change, mitigates undesirable trade-offs, and fosters societal transformation in pursuit of sustainable development. © 2019 by the author(s).