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- ItemCharging of mesospheric aerosol particles: The role of photodetachment and photoionization from meteoric smoke and ice particles(Göttingen : Copernicus, 2009) Rapp, M.Time constants for photodetachment, photoemission, and electron capture are considered for two classes of mesospheric aerosol particles, i.e., meteor smoke particles (MSPs) and pure water ice particles. Assuming that MSPs consist of metal oxides like Fe2O3 or SiO, we find that during daytime conditions photodetachment by solar photons is up to 4 orders of magnitude faster than electron attachment such that MSPs cannot be negatively charged in the presence of sunlight. Rather, even photoemission can compete with electron capture unless the electron density becomes very large (≫1000 cm-3) such that MSPs should either be positively charged or neutral in the case of large electron densities. For pure water ice particles, however, both photodetachment and photoemission are negligible due to the wavelength characteristics of its absorption cross section and because the flux of solar photons has already dropped significantly at such short wavelengths. This means that water ice particles should normally be negatively charged. Hence, our results can readily explain the repeated observation of the coexistence of positive and negative aerosol particles in the polar summer mesopause, i.e., small MSPs should be positively charged and ice particles should be negatively charged. These results have further important implications for our understanding of the nucleation of mesospheric ice particles as well as for the interpretation of incoherent scatter radar observations of MSPs. © 2009 Author(s).
- ItemHuman alterations of the terrestrial water cycle through land management(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2008) Rost, S.; Gerten, D.; Heyder, U.This study quantifies current and potential future changes in transpiration, evaporation, interception loss and river discharge in response to land use change, irrigation and climate change, by performing several distinct simulations within the consistent hydrology and biosphere modeling framework LPJmL (Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land). We distinguished two irrigation simulations: a water limited one in which irrigation was restricted by local renewable water resources (ILIM), and a potential one in which no such limitation was assumed but withdrawals from deep groundwater or remote rivers allowed (IPOT). We found that the effect of historical land use change as compared to potential natural vegetation was pronounced, including a reduction in interception loss and transpiration by 25.9% and 10.6%, respectively, whereas river discharge increased by 6.6% (climate conditions of 1991-2000). Furthermore, we estimated that about 1170km3yr-1 of irrigation water could be withdrawn from local renewable water resources (in ILIM), which resulted in a reduction of river discharge by 1.5%. However, up to 1660km3yr-1 of water withdrawals were required in addition under the assumption that optimal growth of irrigated crops was sustained (IPOT), which resulted in a slight net increase in global river discharge by 2.0% due to return flows. Under the HadCM3 A2 climate and emission scenario, climate change alone will decrease total evapotranspiration by 1.5% and river discharge by 0.9% in 2046-2055 compared to 1991-2000 average due to changes in precipitation patterns, a decrease in global precipitation amount, and the net effect of CO2 fertilization. A doubling of agricultural land in 2046-2055 compared to 1991-2000 average as proposed by the IMAGE land use change scenario will result in a decrease in total evapotranspiration by 2.5% and in an increase in river discharge by 3.9%. That is, the effects of land use change in the future will be comparable in magnitude to the effects of climate change in this particular scenario. On present irrigated areas future water withdrawal will increase especially in regions where climate changes towards warmer and dryer conditions will be pronounced.
- ItemShallow shear-wave reflection seismics in the tsunami struck Krueng Aceh River Basin, Sumatra(Katlenburg-Lindau : European Geosciences Union, 2008) Polom, U.; Arsyad, I.; Kümpel, H.-J.As part of the project "Management of Georisk" (MANGEONAD) of the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), Hanover, high resolution shallow shear-wave reflection seismics was applied in the Indonesian province Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam, North Sumatra in cooperation with the Government of Indonesia, local counterparts, and the Leibniz Institute for Applied Geosciences, Hanover. The investigations were expected to support classification of earthquake site effects for the reconstruction of buildings and infrastructure as well as for groundwater exploration. The study focus sed on the city of Banda Aceh and the surroundings of Aceh Besar. The shear-wave seismic surveys were done parallel to standard geoengineering investigations like cone penetrometer tests to support subsequent site specific statistical calibration. They were also partly supplemented by shallow p-wave seismics for the identification of (a) elastic subsurface parameters and (b) zones with abundance of groundwater. Evaluation of seismic site effects based on shallow reflection seismics has in fact been found to be a highly useful method in Aceh province. In particular, use of a vibratory seismic source was essential for successful application of shear-wave seismics in the city of Banda Aceh and in areas with compacted ground like on farm tracks in the surroundings, presenting mostly agricultural land use areas. We thus were able to explore the mechanical stiffness of the subsurface down to 100 m depth, occasionally even deeper, with remarkably high resolution. The results were transferred into geotechnical site classification in terms of the International Building Code (IBC, 2003). The seismic images give also insights into the history of the basin sedimentation processes of the Krueng Aceh River delta, which is relevant for the exploration of new areas for construction of safe foundations of buildings and for identification of fresh water aquifers in the tsunami flooded region.
- ItemSmall-scale mixing processes enhancing troposphere-to-stratosphere transport by pyro-cumulonimbus storms(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2007) Luderer, G.; Trentmann, J.; Hungershöfer, K.; Herzog, M.; Fromm, M.; Andreae, M.O.Deep convection induced by large forest fires is an efficient mechanism for transport of aerosol particles and trace gases into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS). For many pyro-cumulonimbus clouds (pyroCbs) as well as other cases of severe convection without fire forcing, radiometric observations of cloud tops in the thermal infrared (IR) reveal characteristic structures, featuring a region of relatively high brightness temperatures (warm center) surrounded by a U-shaped region of low brightness temperatures. We performed a numerical simulation of a specific case study of pyroCb using a non-hydrostatic cloud resolving model with a two-moment cloud microphysics parameterization and a prognostic turbulence scheme. The model is able to reproduce the thermal IR structure as observed from satellite radiometry. Our findings establish a close link between the observed temperature pattern and small-scale mixing processes atop and downwind of the overshooting dome of the pyroCb. Such small-scale mixing processes are strongly enhanced by the formation and breaking of a stationary gravity wave induced by the overshoot. They are found to increase the stratospheric penetration of the smoke by up to almost 30 K and thus are of major significance for irreversible transport of forest fire smoke into the lower stratosphere.
- ItemLong-term behavior of the concentration of the minor constituents in the mesosphere-a model study(Göttingen : Copernicus, 2009) Grygalashvyly, M.; Sonnemann, G.R.; Hartogh, P.We investigate the influence the rising concentrations of methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide which have occurred since the pre-industrial era, have had on the chemistry of the mesosphere. For this investigation we use our global 3-D-model COMMA-IAP which was designed for the exploration of the MLT-region and in particular the extended mesopause region. Assumptions and approximations for the trends in the Lyman-flux (needed for the water vapor dissociation rate), methane and the water vapor mixing ratio at the hygropause are necessary to accomplish this study. To approximate the solar Lyman-α flux back to the pre-industrial time, we derived a quadratic fit using the sunspot number record which extends back to 1749 and is the only solar proxy available for the Lyman-α flux prior to 1947. We assume that methane increases with a constant growth rate from the pre-industrial era to the present. An unsolved problem for the model calculations consists of how the water vapor mixing ratio at the hygropause should be specified during this period. We assume that the hygropause was dryer during pre-industrial times than the present. As a consequence of methane oxidation, the model simulation indicates that the middle atmosphere has become more humid as a result of the rising methane concentration, but with some dependence on height and with a small time delay of few years. The solar influence on the water vapor mixing ratio is insignificant below about 80 km in summer high latitudes, but becomes increasingly more important above this altitude. The enhanced water vapor concentration increasesthe hydrogen radical concentration and reduces the mesospheric ozone. A second region of stronger ozone decrease is located in the vicinity of the stratopause. Increases in CO2 concentration enhance slightly the concentration of CO in the mesosphere. However, its influence upon the chemistry is small and its main effect is connected with a cooling of the upper atmosphere. The long-term behavior of water vapor is discussed in particular with respect to its impact on the NLC region.
- ItemSensitivity of polar stratospheric ozone loss to uncertainties in chemical reaction kinetics(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2009) Kawa, S.R.; Stolarski, R.S.; Newman, P.A.; Douglass, A.R.; Rex, M.; Hofmann, D.J.; Santee, M.L.; Frieler, K.The impact and significance of uncertainties in model calculations of stratospheric ozone loss resulting from known uncertainty in chemical kinetics parameters is evaluated in trajectory chemistry simulations for the Antarctic and Arctic polar vortices. The uncertainty in modeled ozone loss is derived from Monte Carlo scenario simulations varying the kinetic (reaction and photolysis rate) parameters within their estimated uncertainty bounds. Simulations of a typical winter/spring Antarctic vortex scenario and Match scenarios in the Arctic produce large uncertainty in ozone loss rates and integrated seasonal loss. The simulations clearly indicate that the dominant source of model uncertainty in polar ozone loss is uncertainty in the Cl2O 2 photolysis reaction, which arises from uncertainty in laboratory-measured molecular cross sections at atmospherically important wavelengths. This estimated uncertainty in JCl 2O2 from laboratory measurements seriously hinders our ability to model polar ozone loss within useful quantitative error limits. Atmospheric observations, however, suggest that the Cl2O2 photolysis uncertainty may be less than that derived from the lab data. Comparisons to Match, South Pole ozonesonde, and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) data all show that the nominal recommended rate simulations agree with data within uncertainties when the Cl2O2 photolysis error is reduced by a factor of two, in line with previous in situ ClOx measurements. Comparisons to simulations using recent cross sections from Pope et al. (2007) are outside the constrained error bounds in each case. Other reactions producing significant sensitivity in polar ozone loss include BrO + ClO and its branching ratios. These uncertainties challenge our confidence in modeling polar ozone depletion and projecting future changes in response to changing halogen emissions and climate. Further laboratory, theoretical, and possibly atmospheric studies are needed.
- ItemSaharan dust transport and deposition towards the tropicalnorthern Atlantic(Göttingen : Copernicus, 2009) Schepanski, K.; Tegen, I.; MacKe, A.We present a study of Saharan dust export towards the tropical North Atlantic using the regional dust emission, transport and deposition model LM-MUSCAT. Horizontal and vertical distribution of dust optical thickness, concentration, and dry and wet deposition rates are used to describe seasonality of dust export and deposition towards the eastern Atlantic for three typical months in different seasons. Deposition rates strongly depend on the vertical dust distribution, which differs with seasons. Furthermore the contribution of dust originating from the Bod́eĺe Depression to Saharan dust over the Atlantic is investigated. A maximum contribution of Bod́eĺe dust transported towards the Cape Verde Islands is evident in winter when the Bod́eĺe source area is most active and dominant with regard to activation frequency and dust emission. Limitations of using satellite retrievals to estimate dust deposition are highlighted.
- ItemPlanetary geostrophic equations for the atmosphere with evolution of the barotropic flow(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2009) Dolaptchiev, S.I.; Klein, R.Atmospheric phenomena such as the quasi-stationary Rossby waves, teleconnection patterns, ultralong persistent blockings and the polar/subtropical jet are characterized by planetary spatial scales, i.e. scales of the order of the earth's radius. This motivates our interest in the relevant physical processes acting on the planetary scales. Using an asymptotic approach, we systematically derive reduced model equations valid for atmospheric motions with planetary spatial scales and a temporal scale of the order of about 1 week. We assume variations of the background potential temperature comparable in magnitude with those adopted in the classical quasi-geostrophic theory. At leading order, the resulting equations include the planetary geostrophic balance. In order to apply these equations to the atmosphere, one has to prescribe a closure for the vertically averaged pressure. We present an evolution equation for this component of the pressure which was derived in a systematic way from the asymptotic analysis. Relative to the prognostic closures adopted in existing reduced-complexity planetary models, this new dynamical closure may provide for more realistic increased large-scale, long-time variability in future implementations. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
- ItemThe millennial atmospheric lifetime of anthropogenic CO2(Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer, 2008) Archer, D.; Brovkin, V.The notion is pervasive in the climate science community and in the public at large that the climate impacts of fossil fuel CO2 release will only persist for a few centuries. This conclusion has no basis in theory or models of the atmosphere/ocean carbon cycle, which we review here. The largest fraction of the CO2 recovery will take place on time scales of centuries, as CO2 invades the ocean, but a significant fraction of the fossil fuel CO2, ranging in published models in the literature from 20-60%, remains airborne for a thousand years or longer. Ultimate recovery takes place on time scales of hundreds of thousands of years, a geologic longevity typically associated in public perceptions with nuclear waste. The glacial/interglacial climate cycles demonstrate that ice sheets and sea level respond dramatically to millennial-timescale changes in climate forcing. There are also potential positive feedbacks in the carbon cycle, including methane hydrates in the ocean, and peat frozen in permafrost, that are most sensitive to the long tail of the fossil fuel CO2 in the atmosphere. © 2008 The Author(s).
- ItemGeoengineering climate by stratospheric sulfur injections: Earth system vulnerability to technological failure(Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer, 2009) Brovkin, V.; Petoukhov, V.; Claussen, M.; Bauer, E.; Archer, D.; Jaeger, C.We use a coupled climate-carbon cycle model of intermediate complexity to investigate scenarios of stratospheric sulfur injections as a measure to compensate for CO2-induced global warming. The baseline scenario includes the burning of 5,000 GtC of fossil fuels. A full compensation of CO2-induced warming requires a load of about 13 MtS in the stratosphere at the peak of atmospheric CO2 concentration. Keeping global warming below 2°C reduces this load to 9 MtS. Compensation of CO 2 forcing by stratospheric aerosols leads to a global reduction in precipitation, warmer winters in the high northern latitudes and cooler summers over northern hemisphere landmasses. The average surface ocean pH decreases by 0.7, reducing the calcifying ability of marine organisms. Because of the millennial persistence of the fossil fuel CO2 in the atmosphere, high levels of stratospheric aerosol loading would have to continue for thousands of years until CO2 was removed from the atmosphere. A termination of stratospheric aerosol loading results in abrupt global warming of up to 5°C within several decades, a vulnerability of the Earth system to technological failure. © 2008 The Author(s).