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- ItemStatistical Properties and Predictability of Extreme Epileptic Events([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2019) Frolov, Nikita S.; Grubov, Vadim V.; Maksimenko, Vladimir A.; Lüttjohann, Annika; Makarov, Vladimir V.; Pavlov, Alexey N.; Sitnikova, Evgenia; Pisarchik, Alexander N.; Kurths, Jürgen; Hramov, Alexander E.The use of extreme events theory for the analysis of spontaneous epileptic brain activity is a relevant multidisciplinary problem. It allows deeper understanding of pathological brain functioning and unraveling mechanisms underlying the epileptic seizure emergence along with its predictability. The latter is a desired goal in epileptology which might open the way for new therapies to control and prevent epileptic attacks. With this goal in mind, we applied the extreme event theory for studying statistical properties of electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings of WAG/Rij rats with genetic predisposition to absence epilepsy. Our approach allowed us to reveal extreme events inherent in this pathological spiking activity, highly pronounced in a particular frequency range. The return interval analysis showed that the epileptic seizures exhibit a highly-structural behavior during the active phase of the spiking activity. Obtained results evidenced a possibility for early (up to 7 s) prediction of epileptic seizures based on consideration of EEG statistical properties.
- ItemNetwork-based identification and characterization of teleconnections on different scales([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2019) Agarwal, Ankit; Caesar, Levke; Marwan, Norbert; Maheswaran, Rathinasamy; Merz, Bruno; Kurths, JürgenSea surface temperature (SST) patterns can – as surface climate forcing – affect weather and climate at large distances. One example is El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that causes climate anomalies around the globe via teleconnections. Although several studies identified and characterized these teleconnections, our understanding of climate processes remains incomplete, since interactions and feedbacks are typically exhibited at unique or multiple temporal and spatial scales. This study characterizes the interactions between the cells of a global SST data set at different temporal and spatial scales using climate networks. These networks are constructed using wavelet multi-scale correlation that investigate the correlation between the SST time series at a range of scales allowing instantaneously deeper insights into the correlation patterns compared to traditional methods like empirical orthogonal functions or classical correlation analysis. This allows us to identify and visualise regions of – at a certain timescale – similarly evolving SSTs and distinguish them from those with long-range teleconnections to other ocean regions. Our findings re-confirm accepted knowledge about known highly linked SST patterns like ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, but also suggest new insights into the characteristics and origins of long-range teleconnections like the connection between ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole.
- ItemConstraining modelled global vegetation dynamics and carbon turnover using multiple satellite observations([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2019) Forkel, Matthias; Drüke, Markus; Thurner, Martin; Dorigo, Wouter; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Thonicke, Kirsten; von Bloh, Werner; Carvalhais, NunoThe response of land ecosystems to future climate change is among the largest unknowns in the global climate-carbon cycle feedback. This uncertainty originates from how dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) simulate climate impacts on changes in vegetation distribution, productivity, biomass allocation, and carbon turnover. The present-day availability of a multitude of satellite observations can potentially help to constrain DGVM simulations within model-data integration frameworks. Here, we use satellite-derived datasets of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetic active radiation (FAPAR), sun-induced fluorescence (SIF), above-ground biomass of trees (AGB), land cover, and burned area to constrain parameters for phenology, productivity, and vegetation dynamics in the LPJmL4 DGVM. Both the prior and the optimized model accurately reproduce present-day estimates of the land carbon cycle and of temporal dynamics in FAPAR, SIF and gross primary production. However, the optimized model reproduces better the observed spatial patterns of biomass, tree cover, and regional forest carbon turnover. Using a machine learning approach, we found that remaining errors in simulated forest carbon turnover can be explained with bioclimatic variables. This demonstrates the need to improve model formulations for climate effects on vegetation turnover and mortality despite the apparent successful constraint of simulated vegetation dynamics with multiple satellite observations.
- ItemFarmer typology to understand differentiated climate change adaptation in Himalaya([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2019) Shukla, Roopam; Agarwal, Ankit; Gornott, Christoph; Sachdeva, Kamna; Joshi, P.K.Smallholder farmers’ responses to the climate-induced agricultural changes are not uniform but rather diverse, as response adaptation strategies are embedded in the heterogonous agronomic, social, economic, and institutional conditions. There is an urgent need to understand the diversity within the farming households, identify the main drivers and understand its relationship with household adaptation strategies. Typology construction provides an efficient method to understand farmer diversity by delineating groups with common characteristics. In the present study, based in the Uttarakhand state of Indian Western Himalayas, five farmer types were identified on the basis of resource endowment and agriculture orientation characteristics. Factor analysis followed by sequential agglomerative hierarchial and K-means clustering was use to delineate farmer types. Examination of adaptation strategies across the identified farmer types revealed that mostly contrasting and type-specific bundle of strategies are adopted by farmers to ensure livelihood security. Our findings show that strategies that incurred high investment, such as infrastructural development, are limited to high resource-endowed farmers. In contrast, the low resourced farmers reported being progressively disengaging with farming as a livelihood option. Our results suggest that the proponents of effective adaptation policies in the Himalayan region need to be cognizant of the nuances within the farming communities to capture the diverse and multiple adaptation needs and constraints of the farming households. © 2019, The Author(s).
- ItemComparing socioeconomic inequalities between early neonatal mortality and facility delivery: Cross-sectional data from 72 low- and middle-income countries([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2019) Lohela, Terhi J.; Nesbitt, Robin C.; Pekkanen, Juha; Gabrysch, SabineFacility delivery should reduce early neonatal mortality. We used the Slope Index of Inequality and logistic regression to quantify absolute and relative socioeconomic inequalities in early neonatal mortality (0 to 6 days) and facility delivery among 679,818 live births from 72 countries with Demographic and Health Surveys. The inequalities in early neonatal mortality were compared with inequalities in postneonatal infant mortality (28 days to 1 year), which is not related to childbirth. Newborns of the richest mothers had a small survival advantage over the poorest in unadjusted analyses (−2.9 deaths/1,000; OR 0.86) and the most educated had a small survival advantage over the least educated (−3.9 deaths/1,000; OR 0.77), while inequalities in postneonatal infant mortality were more than double that in absolute terms. The proportion of births in health facilities was an absolute 43% higher among the richest and 37% higher among the most educated compared to the poorest and least educated mothers. A higher proportion of facility delivery in the sampling cluster (e.g. village) was only associated with a small decrease in early neonatal mortality. In conclusion, while socioeconomically advantaged mothers had much higher use of a health facility at birth, this did not appear to convey a comparable survival advantage.
- ItemBayesian Data Analysis for Revealing Causes of the Middle Pleistocene Transition([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2019) Mukhin, Dmitry; Gavrilov, Andrey; Loskutov, Evgeny; Kurths, Juergen; Feigin, AlexanderCurrently, causes of the middle Pleistocene transition (MPT) – the onset of large-amplitude glacial variability with 100 kyr time scale instead of regular 41 kyr cycles before – are a challenging puzzle in Paleoclimatology. Here we show how a Bayesian data analysis based on machine learning approaches can help to reveal the main mechanisms underlying the Pleistocene variability, which most likely explain proxy records and can be used for testing existing theories. We construct a Bayesian data-driven model from benthic δ18O records (LR04 stack) accounting for the main factors which may potentially impact climate of the Pleistocene: internal climate dynamics, gradual trends, variations of insolation, and millennial variability. In contrast to some theories, we uncover that under long-term trends in climate, the strong glacial cycles have appeared due to internal nonlinear oscillations induced by millennial noise. We find that while the orbital Milankovitch forcing does not matter for the MPT onset, the obliquity oscillation phase-locks the climate cycles through the meridional gradient of insolation.