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- ItemEvaluation of Expert Reports to Quantify the Exploration Risk for Geothermal Projects in Germany(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2015) Ganz, Britta; Ask, Maria; Hangx, Suzanne; Bruckman, Viktor; Kühn, MichaelThe development of deep geothermal energy sources in Germany still faces many uncertainties and high upfront investment costs. Methodical approaches to assess the exploration risk are thus of major importance for geothermal project development. Since 2002, expert reports to quantify the exploration risk for geothermal projects in Germany were carried out. These reports served as a basis for insurance contracts covering the exploration risk. Using data from wells drilled in the meantime, the reports were evaluated and the stated probabilities compared with values actually reached.
- ItemParticle hygroscopicity during atmospheric new particle formation events: Implications for the chemical species contributing to particle growth(Göttingen : Copernicus, 2013) Wu, Z.; Birmili, W.; Poulain, L.; Poulain, L.; Merkel, M.; Fahlbusch, B.; Van Pinxteren, D.; Herrmann, H.; Wiedensohler, A.This study examines the hygroscopicity of newly formed particles (diameters range 25-45 nm) during two atmospheric new particle formation (NPF) events in the German mid-level mountains during the Hill Cap Cloud Thuringia 2010 (HCCT-2010) field experiment. At the end of the NPF event involving clear particle growth, we measured an unusually high soluble particle fraction of 58.5% at 45 nm particle size. The particle growth rate contributed through sulfuric acid condensation only accounts for around 6.5% of the observed growth rate. Estimations showed that sulfuric acid condensation explained, however, only around 10% of that soluble particle fraction. Therefore, the formation of additional water-soluble matter appears imperative to explain the missing soluble fraction. Although direct evidence is missing, we consider water-soluble organics as candidates for this mechanism. For the case with clear growth process, the particle growth rate was determined by two alternative methods based on tracking the mode diameter of the nucleation mode. The mean particle growth rate obtained from the inter-site data comparison using Lagrangian consideration is 3.8 (± 2.6) nm h-1. During the same period, the growth rate calculated based on one site data is 5.0 nm h-1 using log-normal distribution function method. In light of the fact that considerable uncertainties could be involved in both methods, we consider both estimated growth rates consistent.
- ItemLITOS - A new balloon-borne instrument for fine-scale turbulence soundings in the stratosphere(Göttingen : Copernicus, 2011) Theuerkauf, A.; Gerding, M.; Lübken, F.-J.We have developed a new compact balloon payload called LITOS (Leibniz-Institute Turbulence Observations in the Stratosphere) for high resolution wind turbulence soundings in the stratosphere up to 35 km altitude. The wind measurements are performed using a constant temperature anemometer (CTA) with a vertical resolution of ∼2.5 mm, i.e. 2 kHz sampling rate at 5 m/s ascent speed. Thereby, for the first time, it is possible to study the entire turbulence spectrum down to the viscous subrange in the stratosphere. Including telemetry, housekeeping, batteries and recovery unit, the payload weighs less than 5 kg and can be launched from any radiosonde station. Since autumn 2007, LITOS has been successfully launched several times from the Leibniz-Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) in Kühlungsborn, Germany (54° N, 12° E). Two additional soundings were carried out in 2008 and 2009 in Kiruna, Sweden (67° N, 21° E) as part of the BEXUS program (Balloon-borne EXperiments for University Students). We describe here the basic principle of CTA measurements and prove the validity of this method in the stratosphere. A first case study allows a clear distinction between non-turbulent regions and a turbulent layer with a thickness of some tens of meters. Since our measurements cover the transition between the inertial and viscous subrange, energy dissipation rates can be calculated with high reliability.
- ItemStatistical climatology of mid-latitude mesospheric summer echoes characterised by OSWIN (Ostsee-Wind) radar observations(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2019) Pokhotelov, D.; Stober, G.; Chau, J.L.Mid-latitude mesospheric summer echoes (MSEs) appear in radar observations during summer months. The geophysical factors controlling the formation of MSEs include solar and energetic particle ionisation, neutral temperature, turbulence, and meridional transport. A total of 12 years of summer months observations with the OSWIN (Ostsee-Wind) radar in Kühlungsborn, Germany, have been analysed to detect MSE events and to analyse statistical connections to these controlling factors. A more sensitive and consistent method for deriving signal-to-noise ratio has been utilised. Daily and monthly composite analysis demonstrates strong daytime preference and early summer seasonal preference for MSEs. The statistical results are not entirely conclusive due to the low-occurrence rates of MSEs. Nevertheless, it is demonstrated that the meridional transport from colder high-latitude summer mesosphere is the important controlling factor, while no clear connection to geomagnetic and solar activity is found. © 2019 Author(s).
- ItemEARLINET evaluation of the CATS Level 2 aerosol backscatter coefficient product(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2019) Proestakis, Emmanouil; Amiridis, Vassilis; Marinou, Eleni; Binietoglou, Ioannis; Ansmann, Albert; Wandinger, Ulla; Hofer, Julian; Yorks, John; Nowottnick, Edward; Makhmudov, Abduvosit; Papayannis, Alexandros; Pietruczuk, Aleksander; Gialitaki, Anna; Apituley, Arnoud; Szkop, Artur; Muñoz Porcar, Constantino; Bortoli, Daniele; Dionisi, Davide; Althausen, Dietrich; Mamali, Dimitra; Balis, Dimitris; Nicolae, Doina; Tetoni, Eleni; Liberti, Gian Luigi; Baars, Holger; Mattis, Ina; Stachlewska, Iwona Sylwia; Voudouri, Kalliopi Artemis; Mona, Lucia; Mylonaki, Maria; Perrone, Maria Rita; Costa, Maria João; Sicard, Michael; Papagiannopoulos, Nikolaos; Siomos, Nikolaos; Burlizzi, Pasquale; Pauly, Rebecca; Engelmann, Ronny; Abdullaev, Sabur; Pappalardo, GelsominaWe present the evaluation activity of the European Aerosol Research Lidar Network (EARLINET) for the quantitative assessment of the Level 2 aerosol backscatter coefficient product derived by the Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS) aboard the International Space Station (ISS; Rodier et al., 2015). The study employs correlative CATS and EARLINET backscatter measurements within a 50km distance between the ground station and the ISS overpass and as close in time as possible, typically with the starting time or stopping time of the EARLINET performed measurement time window within 90min of the ISS overpass, for the period from February 2015 to September 2016. The results demonstrate the good agreement of the CATS Level 2 backscatter coefficient and EARLINET. Three ISS overpasses close to the EARLINET stations of Leipzig, Germany; Évora, Portugal; and Dushanbe, Tajikistan, are analyzed here to demonstrate the performance of the CATS lidar system under different conditions. The results show that under cloud-free, relative homogeneous aerosol conditions, CATS is in good agreement with EARLINET, independent of daytime and nighttime conditions. CATS low negative biases are observed, partially attributed to the deficiency of lidar systems to detect tenuous aerosol layers of backscatter signal below the minimum detection thresholds; these are biases which may lead to systematic deviations and slight underestimations of the total aerosol optical depth (AOD) in climate studies. In addition, CATS misclassification of aerosol layers as clouds, and vice versa, in cases of coexistent and/or adjacent aerosol and cloud features, occasionally leads to non-representative, unrealistic, and cloud-contaminated aerosol profiles. Regarding solar illumination conditions, low negative biases in CATS backscatter coefficient profiles, of the order of 6.1%, indicate the good nighttime performance of CATS. During daytime, a reduced signal-to-noise ratio by solar background illumination prevents retrievals of weakly scattering atmospheric layers that would otherwise be detectable during nighttime, leading to higher negative biases, of the order of 22.3%. © Author(s) 2019.
- ItemShip-borne aerosol profiling with lidar over the Atlantic Ocean: From pure marine conditions to complex dust-smoke mixtures(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2018) Bohlmann, S.; Baars, H.; Radenz, M.; Engelmann, R.; Macke, A.The multi-wavelength Raman lidar PollyXT has been regularly operated aboard the research vessel Polarstern on expeditions across the Atlantic Ocean from north to south and vice versa. The lidar measurements of the RV Polarstern cruises PS95 from Bremerhaven, Germany, to Cape Town, Republic of South Africa (November 2015), and PS98 from Punta Arenas, Chile, to Bremerhaven, Germany (April/May 2016), are presented and analysed in detail. The latest set-up of PollyXT allows improved coverage of the marine boundary layer (MBL) due to an additional near-range receiver. Three case studies provide an overview of the aerosol detected over the Atlantic Ocean. In the first case, marine conditions were observed near South Africa on the autumn cruise PS95. Values of optical properties (depolarisation ratios close to zero, lidar ratios of 23 sr at 355 and 532 nm) within the MBL indicate pure marine aerosol. A layer of dried marine aerosol, indicated by an increase of the particle depolarisation ratio to about 10% at 355 nm (9% at 532 nm) and thus confirming the non-sphericity of these particles, could be detected on top of the MBL. On the same cruise, an almost pure Saharan dust plume was observed near the Canary Islands, presented in the second case. The third case deals with several layers of Saharan dust partly mixed with biomass-burning smoke measured on PS98 near the Cabo Verde islands. While the MBL was partly mixed with dust in the pure Saharan dust case, an almost marine MBL was observed in the third case. A statistical analysis showed latitudinal differences in the optical properties within the MBL, caused by the downmixing of dust in the tropics and anthropogenic influences in the northern latitudes, whereas the optical properties of the MBL in the Southern Hemisphere correlate with typical marine values. The particle depolarisation ratio of dried marine layers ranged between 4 and 9% at 532 nm. Night measurements from PS95 and PS98 were used to illustrate the potential of aerosol classification using lidar ratio, particle depolarisation ratio at 355 and 532 nm, and Angström exponent. Lidar ratio and particle depolarisation ratio have been found to be the main indicator for particle type, whereas the Ångström exponent is rather variable.
- ItemProjections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector(Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer, 2013) Held, H.; Gerstengarbe, F.-W.; Pardowitz, T.; Pinto, J.G.; Ulbrich, U.; Born, K.; Donat, M.G.; Karremann, M.K.; Leckebusch, G.C.; Ludwig, P.; Nissen, K.M.; Österle, H.; Prahl, B.F.; Werner, P.C.; Befort, D.J.; Burghoff, O.We present projections of winter storm-induced insured losses in the German residential building sector for the 21st century. With this aim, two structurally most independent downscaling methods and one hybrid downscaling method are applied to a 3-member ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 A1B scenario simulations. One method uses dynamical downscaling of intense winter storm events in the global model, and a transfer function to relate regional wind speeds to losses. The second method is based on a reshuffling of present day weather situations and sequences taking into account the change of their frequencies according to the linear temperature trends of the global runs. The third method uses statistical-dynamical downscaling, considering frequency changes of the occurrence of storm-prone weather patterns, and translation into loss by using empirical statistical distributions. The A1B scenario ensemble was downscaled by all three methods until 2070, and by the (statistical-) dynamical methods until 2100. Furthermore, all methods assume a constant statistical relationship between meteorology and insured losses and no developments other than climate change, such as in constructions or claims management. The study utilizes data provided by the German Insurance Association encompassing 24 years and with district-scale resolution. Compared to 1971-2000, the downscaling methods indicate an increase of 10-year return values (i.e. loss ratios per return period) of 6-35 % for 2011-2040, of 20-30 % for 2041-2070, and of 40-55 % for 2071-2100, respectively. Convolving various sources of uncertainty in one confidence statement (data-, loss model-, storm realization-, and Pareto fit-uncertainty), the return-level confidence interval for a return period of 15 years expands by more than a factor of two. Finally, we suggest how practitioners can deal with alternative scenarios or possible natural excursions of observed losses.
- ItemThe impact of climate change and variability on the generation of electrical power(Stuttgart : Gebrueder Borntraeger Verlagsbuchhandlung, 2015) Koch, H.; Vögele, S.; Hattermann, F.F.; Huang, S.
- ItemForests under climate change: Potential risks and opportunities(Stuttgart : Gebrueder Borntraeger Verlagsbuchhandlung, 2015) Lasch-Born, P.; Suckow, F.; Gutsch, M.; Reyer, C.; Hauf, Y.; Murawski, A.; Pilz, T.
- ItemUncertainty of biomass contributions from agriculture and forestry to renewable energy resources under climate change(Stuttgart : Gebrueder Borntraeger Verlagsbuchhandlung, 2015) Gutsch, M.; Lasch-Born, P.; Lüttger, A.B.; Suckow, F.; Murawski, A.; Pilz, T.