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End date: 2022 × Start date: 2020 × DDC: 550 × Subject: numerical model ×

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 27
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    Characterization of organic aerosol across the global remote troposphere: A comparison of ATom measurements and global chemistry models
    (Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2020) Hodzic, Alma; Campuzano-Jost, Pedro; Bian, Huisheng; Chin, Mian; Colarco, Peter R.; Day, Douglas A.; Froyd, Karl D.; Heinold, Bernd; Katich, Joseph M.; Jo, Duseong S.; Kodros, John K.; Nault, Benjamin A.; Pierce, Jeffrey R.; Ray, Eric; Schacht, Jacob; Schill, Gregory P.; Schroder, Jason C.; Schwarz, Joshua P.; Sueper, Donna T.; Tegen, Ina; Tilmes, Simone; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Yu, Pengfei; Jimenez, Jose L.
    The spatial distribution and properties of submicron organic aerosol (OA) are among the key sources of uncertainty in our understanding of aerosol effects on climate. Uncertainties are particularly large over remote regions of the free troposphere and Southern Ocean, where very few data have been available and where OA predictions from AeroCom Phase II global models span 2 to 3 orders of magnitude, greatly exceeding the model spread over source regions. The (nearly) pole-to-pole vertical distribution of nonrefractory aerosols was measured with an aerosol mass spectrometer onboard the NASA DC-8 aircraft as part of the Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission during the Northern Hemisphere summer (August 2016) and winter (February 2017). This study presents the first extensive characterization of OA mass concentrations and their level of oxidation in the remote atmosphere. OA and sulfate are the major contributors by mass to submicron aerosols in the remote troposphere, together with sea salt in the marine boundary layer. Sulfate was dominant in the lower stratosphere. OA concentrations have a strong seasonal and zonal variability, with the highest levels measured in the lower troposphere in the summer and over the regions influenced by biomass burning from Africa (up to 10 μgsm-3). Lower concentrations (~ 0:1 0.3 μgsm-3) are observed in the northern middle and high latitudes and very low concentrations (< 0:1 μgsm-3) in the southern middle and high latitudes. The ATom dataset is used to evaluate predictions of eight current global chemistry models that implement a variety of commonly used representations of OA sources and chemistry, as well as of the AeroCom-II ensemble. The current model ensemble captures the average vertical and spatial distribution of measured OA concentrations, and the spread of the individual models remains within a factor of 5. These results are significantly improved over the AeroCom-II model ensemble, which shows large overestimations over these regions. However, some of the improved agreement with observations occurs for the wrong reasons, as models have the tendency to greatly overestimate the primary OA fraction and underestimate the sec-ondary fraction. Measured OA in the remote free troposphere is highly oxygenated, with organic aerosol to organic carbon (OA= OC) ratios of ~ 2.2 2.8, and is 30 % 60% more oxygenated than in current models, which can lead to significant errors in OA concentrations. The model measurement comparisons presented here support the concept of a more dynamic OA system as proposed by Hodzic et al. (2016), with enhanced removal of primary OA and a stronger production of secondary OA in global models needed to provide better agreement with observations. © 2020 IEEE Computer Society. All rights reserved.
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    Sensitivity of polar stratospheric ozone loss to uncertainties in chemical reaction kinetics
    (Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2009) Kawa, S.R.; Stolarski, R.S.; Newman, P.A.; Douglass, A.R.; Rex, M.; Hofmann, D.J.; Santee, M.L.; Frieler, K.
    The impact and significance of uncertainties in model calculations of stratospheric ozone loss resulting from known uncertainty in chemical kinetics parameters is evaluated in trajectory chemistry simulations for the Antarctic and Arctic polar vortices. The uncertainty in modeled ozone loss is derived from Monte Carlo scenario simulations varying the kinetic (reaction and photolysis rate) parameters within their estimated uncertainty bounds. Simulations of a typical winter/spring Antarctic vortex scenario and Match scenarios in the Arctic produce large uncertainty in ozone loss rates and integrated seasonal loss. The simulations clearly indicate that the dominant source of model uncertainty in polar ozone loss is uncertainty in the Cl2O 2 photolysis reaction, which arises from uncertainty in laboratory-measured molecular cross sections at atmospherically important wavelengths. This estimated uncertainty in JCl 2O2 from laboratory measurements seriously hinders our ability to model polar ozone loss within useful quantitative error limits. Atmospheric observations, however, suggest that the Cl2O2 photolysis uncertainty may be less than that derived from the lab data. Comparisons to Match, South Pole ozonesonde, and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) data all show that the nominal recommended rate simulations agree with data within uncertainties when the Cl2O2 photolysis error is reduced by a factor of two, in line with previous in situ ClOx measurements. Comparisons to simulations using recent cross sections from Pope et al. (2007) are outside the constrained error bounds in each case. Other reactions producing significant sensitivity in polar ozone loss include BrO + ClO and its branching ratios. These uncertainties challenge our confidence in modeling polar ozone depletion and projecting future changes in response to changing halogen emissions and climate. Further laboratory, theoretical, and possibly atmospheric studies are needed.
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    On microphysical processes of noctilucent clouds (NLC): Observations and modeling of mean and width of the particle size-distribution
    (Göttingen : Copernicus, 2010) Baumgarten, G.; Fiedler, J.; Rapp, M.
    Noctilucent clouds (NLC) in the polar summer mesopause region have been observed in Norway (69° N, 16° E) between 1998 and 2009 by 3-color lidar technique. Assuming a mono-modal Gaussian size distribution we deduce mean and width of the particle sizes throughout the clouds. We observe a quasi linear relationship between distribution width and mean of the particle size at the top of the clouds and a deviation from this behavior for particle sizes larger than 40 nm, most often in the lower part of the layer. The vertically integrated particle properties show that 65% of the data follows the linear relationship with a slope of 0.42±0.02 for mean particle sizes up to 40 nm. For the vertically resolved particle properties (Δz = Combining double low line 0.15 km) the slope is comparable and about 0.39±0.03. For particles larger than 40 nm the distribution width becomes nearly independent of particle size and even decreases in the lower part of the layer. We compare our observations to microphysical modeling of noctilucent clouds and find that the distribution width depends on turbulence, the time that turbulence can act (cloud age), and the sampling volume/time (atmospheric variability). The model results nicely reproduce the measurements and show that the observed slope can be explained by eddy diffusion profiles as observed from rocket measurements. © 2010 Author(s).
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    Saharan dust transport and deposition towards the tropicalnorthern Atlantic
    (Göttingen : Copernicus, 2009) Schepanski, K.; Tegen, I.; MacKe, A.
    We present a study of Saharan dust export towards the tropical North Atlantic using the regional dust emission, transport and deposition model LM-MUSCAT. Horizontal and vertical distribution of dust optical thickness, concentration, and dry and wet deposition rates are used to describe seasonality of dust export and deposition towards the eastern Atlantic for three typical months in different seasons. Deposition rates strongly depend on the vertical dust distribution, which differs with seasons. Furthermore the contribution of dust originating from the Bod́eĺe Depression to Saharan dust over the Atlantic is investigated. A maximum contribution of Bod́eĺe dust transported towards the Cape Verde Islands is evident in winter when the Bod́eĺe source area is most active and dominant with regard to activation frequency and dust emission. Limitations of using satellite retrievals to estimate dust deposition are highlighted.
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    Model simulations of chemical effects of sprites in relation with observed HO2 enhancements over sprite-producing thunderstorms
    (Katlenburg-Lindau : European Geosciences Union, 2021) Winkler, Holger; Yamada, Takayoshi; Kasai, Yasuko; Berger, Uwe; Notholt, Justus
    Recently, measurements by the Superconducting Submillimeter-Wave Limb Emission Sounder (SMILES) satellite instrument have been presented which indicate an increase in mesospheric HO2 above sprite-producing thunderstorms. The aim of this paper is to compare these observations to model simulations of chemical sprite effects. A plasma chemistry model in combination with a vertical transport module was used to simulate the impact of a streamer discharge in the altitude range 70–80 km, corresponding to one of the observed sprite events. Additionally, a horizontal transport and dispersion model was used to simulate advection and expansion of the sprite air masses. The model simulations predict a production of hydrogen radicals mainly due to reactions of proton hydrates formed after the electrical discharge. The net effect is a conversion of water molecules into H+OH. This leads to increasing HO2 concentrations a few hours after the electric breakdown. Due to the modelled long-lasting increase in HO2 after a sprite discharge, an accumulation of HO2 produced by several sprites appears possible. However, the number of sprites needed to explain the observed HO2 enhancements is unrealistically large. At least for the lower measurement tangent heights, the production mechanism of HO2 predicted by the model might contribute to the observed enhancements.
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    Evaluated kinetic and photochemical data for atmospheric chemistry: Volume VII-Criegee intermediates
    (Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2020) Cox, R. Anthony; Ammann, Markus; Crowley, John N.; Herrmann, Hartmut; Jenkin, Michael E.; Faye McNeill, V.; Mellouki, Abdelwahid; Troe, Jürgen; Wallington, Timothy J.
    This article, the seventh in the series, presents kinetic and photochemical data sheets evaluated by the IUPAC Task Group on Atmospheric Chemical Kinetic Data Evaluation. It covers an extension of the gas-phase and photochemical reactions related to Criegee intermediates previously published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP) in 2006 and implemented on the IUPAC website up to 2020. The article consists of an introduction, description of laboratory measurements, a discussion of rate coefficients for reactions of O3 with alkenes producing Criegee intermediates, rate coefficients of unimolecular and bimolecular reactions and photochemical data for reactions of Criegee intermediates, and an overview of the atmospheric chemistry of Criegee intermediates. Summary tables of the recommended kinetic and mechanistic parameters for the evaluated reactions are provided. Data sheets summarizing information upon which the recommendations are based are given in two files, provided as a Supplement to this article. © Author(s) 2020.
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    The effect of univariate bias adjustment on multivariate hazard estimates
    (Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2019) Zscheischler, Jakob; Fischer, Erich M.; Lange, Stefan
    Bias adjustment is often a necessity in estimating climate impacts because impact models usually rely on unbiased climate information, a requirement that climate model outputs rarely fulfil. Most currently used statistical bias-adjustment methods adjust each climate variable separately, even though impacts usually depend on multiple potentially dependent variables. Human heat stress, for instance, depends on temperature and relative humidity, two variables that are often strongly correlated. Whether univariate bias-adjustment methods effectively improve estimates of impacts that depend on multiple drivers is largely unknown, and the lack of long-term impact data prevents a direct comparison between model outputs and observations for many climate-related impacts. Here we use two hazard indicators, heat stress and a simple fire risk indicator, as proxies for more sophisticated impact models. We show that univariate bias-adjustment methods such as univariate quantile mapping often cannot effectively reduce biases in multivariate hazard estimates. In some cases, it even increases biases. These cases typically occur (i) when hazards depend equally strongly on more than one climatic driver, (ii) when models exhibit biases in the dependence structure of drivers and (iii) when univariate biases are relatively small. Using a perfect model approach, we further quantify the uncertainty in bias-adjusted hazard indicators due to internal variability and show how imperfect bias adjustment can amplify this uncertainty. Both issues can be addressed successfully with a statistical bias adjustment that corrects the multivariate dependence structure in addition to the marginal distributions of the climate drivers. Our results suggest that currently many modeled climate impacts are associated with uncertainties related to the choice of bias adjustment. We conclude that in cases where impacts depend on multiple dependent climate variables these uncertainties can be reduced using statistical bias-adjustment approaches that correct the variables' multivariate dependence structure. © 2019 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved.
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    About the influence of elevation model quality and small-scale damage functions on flood damage estimation
    (Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2011) Boettle, M.; Kropp, J.P.; Reiber, L.; Roithmeier, O.; Rybski, D.; Walther, C.
    The assessment of coastal flood risks in a particular region requires the estimation of typical damages caused by storm surges of certain characteristics and annualities. Although the damage depends on a multitude of factors, including flow velocity, duration of flood, precaution, etc., the relationship between flood events and the corresponding average damages is usually described by a stage-damage function, which considers the maximum water level as the only damage influencing factor. Starting with different (microscale) building damage functions we elaborate a macroscopic damage function for the entire case study area Kalundborg (Denmark) on the basis of multiple coarse-graining methods and assumptions of the hydrological connectivity. We find that for small events, the macroscopic damage function mostly depends on the properties of the elevation model, while for large events it strongly depends on the assumed building damage function. In general, the damage in the case study increases exponentially up to a certain level and then less steep.
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    Application of a model-based rainfall-runoff database as efficient tool for flood risk management
    (Chichester : John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2013) Brocca, L.; Liersch, S.; Melone, F.; Moramarco, T.; Volk, M.
    A framework for a comprehensive synthetic rainfall-runoff database was developed to study catchment response to a variety of rainfall events. The framework supports effective flood risk assessment and management and implements simple approaches. It consists of three flexible components, a rainfall generator, a continuous rainfallrunoff model, and a database management system. The system was developed and tested at two gauged river sections along the upper Tiber River (central Italy). One of the main questions was to investigate how simple such approaches can be applied without impairing the quality of the results. The rainfall-runoff model was used to simulate runoff on the basis of a large number of rainfall events. The resulting rainfallrunoff database stores pre-simulated events classified on the basis of the rainfall amount, initial wetness conditions and initial discharge. The real-time operational forecasts follow an analogue method that does not need new model simulations. However, the forecasts are based on the simulation results available in the rainfall-runoff database (for the specific class to which the forecast belongs). Therefore, the database can be used as an effective tool to assess possible streamflow scenarios assuming different rainfall volumes for the following days. The application to the study site shows that magnitudes of real flood events were appropriately captured by the database. Further work should be dedicated to introduce a component for taking account of the actual temporal distribution of rainfall events into the stochastic rainfall generator and to the use of different rainfall-runoff models to enhance the usability of the proposed procedure.
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    Tobac 1.2: Towards a flexible framework for tracking and analysis of clouds in diverse datasets
    (Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2019) Heikenfeld, Max; Marinescu, Peter J.; Christensen, Matthew; Watson-Parris, Duncan; Senf, Fabian; van den Heever, Susan C.; Stier, Philip
    We introduce tobac (Tracking and Object-Based Analysis of Clouds), a newly developed framework for tracking and analysing individual clouds in different types of datasets, such as cloud-resolving model simulations and geostationary satellite retrievals. The software has been designed to be used flexibly with any two-or three-dimensional timevarying input. The application of high-level data formats, such as Iris cubes or xarray arrays, for input and output allows for convenient use of metadata in the tracking analysis and visualisation. Comprehensive analysis routines are provided to derive properties like cloud lifetimes or statistics of cloud properties along with tools to visualise the results in a convenient way. The application of tobac is presented in two examples. We first track and analyse scattered deep convective cells based on maximum vertical velocity and the threedimensional condensate mixing ratio field in cloud-resolving model simulations. We also investigate the performance of the tracking algorithm for different choices of time resolution of the model output. In the second application, we show how the framework can be used to effectively combine information from two different types of datasets by simultaneously tracking convective clouds in model simulations and in geostationary satellite images based on outgoing longwave radiation. The tobac framework provides a flexible new way to include the evolution of the characteristics of individual clouds in a range of important analyses like model intercomparison studies or model assessment based on observational data. © 2019 Author(s).