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- ItemGlobal cotton production under climate change – Implications for yield and water consumption(Munich : EGU, 2021) Jans, Yvonne; von Bloh, Werner; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Müller, ChristophBeing an extensively produced natural fiber on earth, cotton is of importance for economies. Although the plant is broadly adapted to varying environments, the growth of and irrigation water demand on cotton may be challenged by future climate change. To study the impacts of climate change on cotton productivity in different regions across the world and the irrigation water requirements related to it, we use the process-based, spatially detailed biosphere and hydrology model LPJmL (Lund Potsdam Jena managed land). We find our modeled cotton yield levels in good agreement with reported values and simulated water consumption of cotton production similar to published estimates. Following the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) protocol, we employ an ensemble of five general circulation models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the 2011 2099 period to simulate future cotton yields. We find that irrigated cotton production does not suffer from climate change if CO2 effects are considered, whereas rainfed production is more sensitive to varying climate conditions. Considering the overall effect of a changing climate and CO2 fertilization, cotton production on current cropland steadily increases for most of the RCPs. Starting from _ 65 million tonnes in 2010, cotton production for RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 equates to 83 and 92 million tonnes at the end of the century, respectively. Under RCP8.5, simulated global cotton production rises by more than 50% by 2099. Taking only climate change into account, projected cotton production considerably shrinks in most scenarios, by up to one-Third or 43 million tonnes under RCP8.5. The simulation of future virtual water content (VWC) of cotton grown under elevated CO2 results for all scenarios in less VWC compared to ambient CO2 conditions. Under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, VWC is notably decreased by more than 2000m3 t1 in areas where cotton is produced under purely rainfed conditions. By 2040, the average global VWC for cotton declines in all scenarios from currently 3300 to 3000m3 t1, and reduction continues by up to 30% in 2100 under RCP8.5. While the VWC decreases by the CO2 effect, elevated temperature acts in the opposite direction. Ignoring beneficial CO2 effects, global VWC of cotton would increase for all RCPs except RCP2.6, reaching more than 5000m3 t1 by the end of the simulation period under RCP8.5. Given the economic relevance of cotton production, climate change poses an additional stress and deserves special attention. Changes in VWC and water demands for cotton production are of special importance, as cotton production is known for its intense water consumption. The implications of climate impacts on cotton production on the one hand and the impact of cotton production on water resources on the other hand illustrate the need to assess how future climate change may affect cotton production and its resource requirements. Our results should be regarded as optimistic, because of high uncertainty with respect to CO2 fertilization and the lack of implementing processes of boll abscission under heat stress. Still, the inclusion of cotton in LPJmL allows for various large-scale studies to assess impacts of climate change on hydrological factors and the implications for agricultural production and carbon sequestration. © 2021 BMJ Publishing Group. All rights reserved.
- ItemPlanned relocation in Peru: advancing from well-meant legislation to good practice(New York : Springer, 2021) Bergmann, JonasAlong Peru’s rainforest rivers, rising flood extremes are increasingly exceeding coping capacities of vulnerable households. Peru has detailed legislation that embraces planned relocation as a strategic solution to such situations and various relocation projects are underway across the country. This research brief analyzes well-being consequences for two communities requesting relocation, using qualitative data collected from experts and 30 affected people. Initial results emphasize that weak governance, poverty, third-party involvement, and community action have influenced relocation outcomes. Delays and fragmented implementation have threatened people’s well-being. One community, waiting for land to relocate since 2015, has suffered from continued hazard exposure, deteriorated material conditions, and reduced subjective well-being. The second community achieved relocation only after a decade in detrimental limbo. Although livelihood challenges persist, its inhabitants now benefit from better market access and decreased exposure, leading to higher subjective well-being. With rising needs for relocation worldwide, the cases highlight that detailed legislation is not sufficient to safeguard people’s well-being. Advancing from well-meant legislation to good practice requires adequate institutional capacity, effective mechanisms for oversight and accountability, better engagement of third parties, and dedicated efforts to strengthen community agency.
- ItemThe social cost of carbon and inequality: When local redistribution shapes global carbon prices(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2021) Kornek, Ulrike; Klenert, David; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Fleurbaey, MarcThe social cost of carbon is a central metric for optimal carbon prices. Previous literature shows that inequality significantly influences the social cost of carbon, but mostly omits heterogeneity below the national level. We present an optimal taxation model of the social cost of carbon that accounts for inequality between and within countries. We find that climate and distributional policy can generally not be separated. If only one country does not compensate low-income households for disproportionate damages, the social cost of carbon tends to increase globally. Optimal carbon prices remain roughly unchanged if national redistribution leaves inequality between households unaffected by climate change and if the utility of households is approximately logarithmic in consumption.
- ItemPotential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities(London : Nature Publishing Group, 2022) Cinner, Joshua E; Caldwell, Iain R; Thiault, Lauric; Ben, John; Blanchard, Julia L; Coll, Marta; Diedrich, Amy; Eddy, Tyler D; Everett, Jason D; Folberth, Christian; Gascuel, Didier; Guiet, Jerome; Gurney, Georgina G; Heneghan, Ryan F; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Jiddawi, Narriman; Lahari, Rachael; Kuange, John; Liu, Wenfeng; Maury, Olivier; Müller, Christoph; Novaglio, Camilla; Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano; Petrik, Colleen M; Rabearisoa, Ando; Tittensor, Derek P; Wamukota, Andrew; Pollnac, RichardClimate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations (> 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status.
- ItemA review of the potential climate change impacts and adaptation options for European viticulture(Basel : MDPI, 2020) Santos, João A.; Fraga, Helder; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Moutinho-Pereira, José; Dinis, Lia-Tânia; Correia, Carlos; Moriondo, Marco; Leolini, Luisa; Dibari, Camilla; Costafreda-Aumedes, Sergi; Kartschall, Thomas; Menz, Christoph; Molitor, Daniel; Junk, Jürgen; Beyer, Marco; Schultz, Hans R.Viticulture and winemaking are important socioeconomic sectors in many European regions. Climate plays a vital role in the terroir of a given wine region, as it strongly controls canopy microclimate, vine growth, vine physiology, yield, and berry composition, which together determine wine attributes and typicity. New challenges are, however, predicted to arise from climate change, as grapevine cultivation is deeply dependent on weather and climate conditions. Changes in viticultural suitability over the last decades, for viticulture in general or the use of specific varieties, have already been reported for many wine regions. Despite spatially heterogeneous impacts, climate change is anticipated to exacerbate these recent trends on suitability for wine production. These shifts may reshape the geographical distribution of wine regions, while wine typicity may also be threatened in most cases. Changing climates will thereby urge for the implementation of timely, suitable, and cost-effective adaptation strategies, which should also be thoroughly planned and tuned to local conditions for an effective risk reduction. Although the potential of the different adaptation options is not yet fully investigated, deserving further research activities, their adoption will be of utmost relevance to maintain the socioeconomic and environmental sustainability of the highly valued viticulture and winemaking sector in Europe. © 2020 by the authors.
- ItemCold atoms in space: community workshop summary and proposed road-map(Berlin ; Heidelberg [u.a.] : Springer Open, 2022) Alonso, Iván; Alpigiani, Cristiano; Altschul, Brett; Araújo, Henrique; Arduini, Gianluigi; Arlt, Jan; Badurina, Leonardo; Balaž, Antun; Bandarupally, Satvika; Barish, Barry C.; Barone, Michele; Reguzzoni, Mirko; Richaud, Andrea; Riou, Isabelle; Rothacher, Markus; Roura, Albert; Ruschhaupt, Andreas; Sabulsky, Dylan O.; Safronova, Marianna; Saltas, Ippocratis D.; Bernabeu, Jose; Haehnelt, Martin; Salvi, Leonardo; Sameed, Muhammed; Saurabh, Pandey; Schäffer, Stefan; Schiller, Stephan; Schilling, Manuel; Schkolnik, Vladimir; Schlippert, Dennis; Schmidt, Piet O.; Schnatz, Harald; Hanımeli, Ekim T.; Bertoldi, Andrea; Schneider, Jean; Schneider, Ulrich; Schreck, Florian; Schubert, Christian; Shayeghi, Armin; Sherrill, Nathaniel; Shipsey, Ian; Signorini, Carla; Singh, Rajeev; Hawkins, Leonie; Singh, Yeshpal; Bingham, Robert; Skordis, Constantinos; Smerzi, Augusto; Sopuerta, Carlos F.; Sorrentino, Fiodor; Sphicas, Paraskevas; Stadnik, Yevgeny V.; Stefanescu, Petruta; Tarallo, Marco G.; Hees, Aurélien; Tentindo, Silvia; Tino, Guglielmo M.; Bize, Sébastien; Tinsley, Jonathan N.; Tornatore, Vincenza; Treutlein, Philipp; Trombettoni, Andrea; Tsai, Yu-Dai; Tuckey, Philip; Uchida, Melissa A.; Henderson, Victoria A.; Valenzuela, Tristan; Van Den Bossche, Mathias; Vaskonen, Ville; Blas, Diego; Verma, Gunjan; Vetrano, Flavio; Vogt, Christian; von Klitzing, Wolf; Waller, Pierre; Walser, Reinhold; Herr, Waldemar; Wille, Eric; Williams, Jason; Windpassinger, Patrick; Wittrock, Ulrich; Bongs, Kai; Wolf, Peter; Woltmann, Marian; Wörner, Lisa; Xuereb, André; Yahia, Mohamed; Herrmann, Sven; Yazgan, Efe; Yu, Nan; Zahzam, Nassim; Zambrini Cruzeiro, Emmanuel; Zhan, Mingsheng; Bouyer, Philippe; Zou, Xinhao; Zupan, Jure; Zupanič, Erik; Braitenberg, Carla; Hird, Thomas; Brand, Christian; Braxmaier, Claus; Bresson, Alexandre; Buchmueller, Oliver; Budker, Dmitry; Bugalho, Luís; Burdin, Sergey; Cacciapuoti, Luigi; Callegari, Simone; Calmet, Xavier; Hobson, Richard; Calonico, Davide; Canuel, Benjamin; Caramete, Laurentiu-Ioan; Carraz, Olivier; Cassettari, Donatella; Chakraborty, Pratik; Chattopadhyay, Swapan; Chauhan, Upasna; Chen, Xuzong; Chen, Yu-Ao; Hock, Vincent; Chiofalo, Maria Luisa; Coleman, Jonathon; Corgier, Robin; Cotter, J. P.; Michael Cruise, A.; Cui, Yanou; Davies, Gavin; De Roeck, Albert; Demarteau, Marcel; Derevianko, Andrei; Barsanti, Michele; Di Clemente, Marco; Djordjevic, Goran S.; Donadi, Sandro; Doré, Olivier; Dornan, Peter; Doser, Michael; Drougakis, Giannis; Dunningham, Jacob; Easo, Sajan; Eby, Joshua; Hogan, Jason M.; Elertas, Gedminas; Ellis, John; Evans, David; Examilioti, Pandora; Fadeev, Pavel; Fanì, Mattia; Fassi, Farida; Fattori, Marco; Fedderke, Michael A.; Felea, Daniel; Holst, Bodil; Feng, Chen-Hao; Ferreras, Jorge; Flack, Robert; Flambaum, Victor V.; Forsberg, René; Fromhold, Mark; Gaaloul, Naceur; Garraway, Barry M.; Georgousi, Maria; Geraci, Andrew; Holynski, Michael; Gibble, Kurt; Gibson, Valerie; Gill, Patrick; Giudice, Gian F.; Goldwin, Jon; Gould, Oliver; Grachov, Oleg; Graham, Peter W.; Grasso, Dario; Griffin, Paul F.; Israelsson, Ulf; Guerlin, Christine; Gündoğan, Mustafa; Gupta, Ratnesh K.; Jeglič, Peter; Jetzer, Philippe; Juzeliūnas, Gediminas; Kaltenbaek, Rainer; Kamenik, Jernej F.; Kehagias, Alex; Bass, Steven; Kirova, Teodora; Kiss-Toth, Marton; Koke, Sebastian; Kolkowitz, Shimon; Kornakov, Georgy; Kovachy, Tim; Krutzik, Markus; Kumar, Mukesh; Kumar, Pradeep; Lämmerzahl, Claus; Bassi, Angelo; Landsberg, Greg; Le Poncin-Lafitte, Christophe; Leibrandt, David R.; Lévèque, Thomas; Lewicki, Marek; Li, Rui; Lipniacka, Anna; Lisdat, Christian; Liu, Mia; Lopez-Gonzalez, J. L.; Battelier, Baptiste; Loriani, Sina; Louko, Jorma; Luciano, Giuseppe Gaetano; Lundblad, Nathan; Maddox, Steve; Mahmoud, M. A.; Maleknejad, Azadeh; March-Russell, John; Massonnet, Didier; McCabe, Christopher; Baynham, Charles F. A.; Meister, Matthias; Mežnaršič, Tadej; Micalizio, Salvatore; Migliaccio, Federica; Millington, Peter; Milosevic, Milan; Mitchell, Jeremiah; Morley, Gavin W.; Müller, Jürgen; Murphy, Eamonn; Beaufils, Quentin; Müstecaplıoğlu, Özgür E.; O’Shea, Val; Oi, Daniel K. L.; Olson, Judith; Pal, Debapriya; Papazoglou, Dimitris G.; Pasatembou, Elizabeth; Paternostro, Mauro; Pawlowski, Krzysztof; Pelucchi, Emanuele; Belić, Aleksandar; Pereira dos Santos, Franck; Peters, Achim; Pikovski, Igor; Pilaftsis, Apostolos; Pinto, Alexandra; Prevedelli, Marco; Puthiya-Veettil, Vishnupriya; Quenby, John; Rafelski, Johann; Rasel, Ernst M.; Bergé, Joel; Ravensbergen, CornelisWe summarise the discussions at a virtual Community Workshop on Cold Atoms in Space concerning the status of cold atom technologies, the prospective scientific and societal opportunities offered by their deployment in space, and the developments needed before cold atoms could be operated in space. The cold atom technologies discussed include atomic clocks, quantum gravimeters and accelerometers, and atom interferometers. Prospective applications include metrology, geodesy and measurement of terrestrial mass change due to, e.g., climate change, and fundamental science experiments such as tests of the equivalence principle, searches for dark matter, measurements of gravitational waves and tests of quantum mechanics. We review the current status of cold atom technologies and outline the requirements for their space qualification, including the development paths and the corresponding technical milestones, and identifying possible pathfinder missions to pave the way for missions to exploit the full potential of cold atoms in space. Finally, we present a first draft of a possible road-map for achieving these goals, that we propose for discussion by the interested cold atom, Earth Observation, fundamental physics and other prospective scientific user communities, together with the European Space Agency (ESA) and national space and research funding agencies.
- ItemAll options, not silver bullets, needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C: a scenario appraisal(Bristol : IOP Publ., 2021-5-25) Warszawski, Lila; Kriegler, Elmar; Lenton, Timothy M.; Gaffney, Owen; Jacob, Daniela; Klingenfeld, Daniel; Koide, Ryu; Máñez Costa, María; Messner, Dirk; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Schlosser, Peter; Takeuchi, Kazuhiko; Van Der Leeuw, Sander; Whiteman, Gail; Rockström, JohanClimate science provides strong evidence of the necessity of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. The IPCC 1.5 °C special report (SR1.5) presents 414 emissions scenarios modelled for the report, of which around 50 are classified as '1.5 °C scenarios', with no or low temperature overshoot. These emission scenarios differ in their reliance on individual mitigation levers, including reduction of global energy demand, decarbonisation of energy production, development of land-management systems, and the pace and scale of deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. The reliance of 1.5 °C scenarios on these levers needs to be critically assessed in light of the potentials of the relevant technologies and roll-out plans. We use a set of five parameters to bundle and characterise the mitigation levers employed in the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios. For each of these levers, we draw on the literature to define 'medium' and 'high' upper bounds that delineate between their 'reasonable', 'challenging' and 'speculative' use by mid century. We do not find any 1.5 °C scenarios that stay within all medium upper bounds on the five mitigation levers. Scenarios most frequently 'over use' CDR with geological storage as a mitigation lever, whilst reductions of energy demand and carbon intensity of energy production are 'over used' less frequently. If we allow mitigation levers to be employed up to our high upper bounds, we are left with 22 of the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios with no or low overshoot. The scenarios that fulfil these criteria are characterised by greater coverage of the available mitigation levers than those scenarios that exceed at least one of the high upper bounds. When excluding the two scenarios that exceed the SR1.5 carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, this subset of 1.5 °C scenarios shows a range of 15–22 Gt CO2 (16–22 Gt CO2 interquartile range) for emissions in 2030. For the year of reaching net zero CO2 emissions the range is 2039–2061 (2049–2057 interquartile range).
- ItemClimate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios(Bristol : IOP Publ., 2021-2-10) Gädeke, Anne; Langer, Moritz; Boike, Julia; Burke, Eleanor J.; Chang, Jinfeng; Head, Melissa; Reyer, Christopher P.O.; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Thiery, Wim; Thonicke, KirstenAmplified climate warming has led to permafrost degradation and a shortening of the winter season, both impacting cost-effective overland travel across the Arctic. Here we use, for the first time, four state-of-the-art Land Surface Models that explicitly consider ground freezing states, forced by a subset of bias-adjusted CMIP5 General Circulation Models to estimate the impact of different global warming scenarios (RCP2.6, 6.0, 8.5) on two modes of winter travel: overland travel days (OTDs) and ice road construction days (IRCDs). We show that OTDs decrease by on average −13% in the near future (2021–2050) and between −15% (RCP2.6) and −40% (RCP8.5) in the far future (2070–2099) compared to the reference period (1971–2000) when 173 d yr−1 are simulated across the Pan-Arctic. Regionally, we identified Eastern Siberia (Sakha (Yakutia), Khabarovsk Krai, Magadan Oblast) to be most resilient to climate change, while Alaska (USA), the Northwestern Russian regions (Yamalo, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Nenets, Komi, Khanty-Mansiy), Northern Europe and Chukotka are highly vulnerable. The change in OTDs is most pronounced during the shoulder season, particularly in autumn. The IRCDs reduce on average twice as much as the OTDs under all climate scenarios resulting in shorter operational duration. The results of the low-end global warming scenario (RCP2.6) emphasize that stringent climate mitigation policies have the potential to reduce the impact of climate change on winter mobility in the second half of the 21st century. Nevertheless, even under RCP2.6, our results suggest substantially reduced winter overland travel implying a severe threat to livelihoods of remote communities and increasing costs for resource exploration and transport across the Arctic.
- ItemFrom Paris to Makkah: heat stress risks for Muslim pilgrims at 1.5 °C and 2 °C(Bristol : IOP Publ., 2021-2-9) Saeed, Fahad; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Almazroui, MansourThe pilgrimages of Muslims to Makkah (Hajj and Umrah) is one of the largest religious gatherings in the world which draws millions of people from around 180 countries each year. Heat stress during summer has led to health impacts including morbidity and mortality in the past, which is likely to worsen due to global warming. Here we investigate the impacts of increasing heat stress during the peak summer months over Makkah at present levels of warming as well as under Paris Agreement's targets of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global mean temperature increase above pre-industrial levels. This is achieved by using multi member ensemble projections from the half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts project. We find a substantial increase in the exceedance probabilities of dangerous thresholds (wet-bulb temperature >24.6 °C) in 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer worlds over the summer months. For the 3 hottest months, August, September and October, even thresholds of extremely dangerous (wet-bulb temperature >29.1 °C) health risks may be surpassed. An increase in exceedance probability of dangerous threshold is projected by two and three times in 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer worlds respectively for May as compared to the reference climate. September shows the highest increase in the exceedance probability of extremely dangerous threshold which is increased to 4 and 13 times in 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer worlds respectively. Based on the indicators of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, we carried out probabilistic risk analysis of life-threatening heat stroke over Makkah. A ten time increase in the heat stroke risk at higher wet-bulb temperatures for each month is projected in 2 °C warmer world. If warming was limited to 1.5 °C world, the risk would only increase by about five times, or half the risk of 2 °C. Our results indicate that substantial heat related risks during Hajj and Umrah happening over peak summer months, as it is the case for Hajj during this decade, will require substantial adaptation measures and would negatively affect the performance of the rite. Stringent mitigation actions to keep the global temperature to 1.5 °C can reduce the risks of heat related illnesses and thereby reduce the non-economic loss and damage related to one of the central pillars of a world religion.
- ItemAvenues of archetype analysis: roots, achievements, and next steps in sustainability research(Wolfville, Nova Scotia : Resilience Alliance, 2021) Eisenack, Klaus; Oberlack, Christoph; Sietz, DianaRecent years have seen a proliferation of studies that use archetype analysis to better understand and to foster transitions toward sustainability. This growing literature reveals a common methodological ground, as well as a variety of perspectives and practices. In this paper, we provide an historical overview of the roots of archetype analysis from ancient philosophy to recent sustainability science. We thereby derive core features of the archetype approach, which we frame by eight propositions. We then introduce the Special Feature, “Archetype Analysis in Sustainability Research,” which offers a consolidated understanding of the approach, a portfolio of methods, and quality criteria, as well as cutting-edge applications. By reflecting on the Special Feature’s empirical and methodological contributions, we hope that the showcased advances, exemplary applications, and conceptual clarifications will help to design future research that contributes to collaborative learning on archetypical patterns leading toward sustainability. The paper concludes with an outlook highlighting central directions for the next wave of archetype analyses.