Search Results
Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland
2018, Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W., Piniewski, Mikołaj, Mezghani, Abdelkader, Okruszko, Tomasz, Pińskwar, Iwona, Kardel, Ignacy, Hov, Øystein, Szcześniak, Mateusz, Szwed, Małgorzata, Benestad, Rasmus E., Marcinkowski, Paweł, Graczyk, Dariusz, Dobler, Andreas, Førland, Eirik J., O’Keefe, Joanna, Choryński, Adam, Parding, Kajsa M., Haugen, Jan Erik
The present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish–Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971–2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well.
Increasing risks of apple tree frost damage under climate change
2019, Pfleiderer, Peter, Menke, Inga, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich
Anthropogenic climate change is affecting agriculture and crop production. The responses of horticultural and agricultural systems to changing climatic conditions can be non-linear and at times counter-intuitive. Depending on the characteristics of the system, the actual impact can arise as a result of a combination of climate hazards or compound events. Here, we show that compound events can lead to increased risk of frost damage for apple fruit trees in Germany in a 2 °C warmer world of up to 10% relative to present day. Although the absolute number of frost days is declining, warmer winters also lead to earlier blossom of fruit trees, which in turn can lead to regionally dependent increased risks of the occurrence of frost days after apple blossom. In southern Germany, warmer winters may also lead to an increase in years in which apple yield is negatively affected by a lack of sufficient amount of cold days to trigger the seasonal response of the trees. Our results show how cropping system responses to seasonal climate can lead to unexpected effects of increased risk of frost damage as a result of warmer winters. An improved understanding of ecosystem responses to changes in climate signals is important to fully assess the impacts of climate change. © 2019, The Author(s).
A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of shared socioeconomic pathways
2014, O'Neill, B.C., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Ebi, K.L., Hallegatte, S., Carter, T.R., Mathur, R., van Vuuren, D.P.
The new scenario framework for climate change research envisions combining pathways of future radiative forcing and their associated climate changes with alternative pathways of socioeconomic development in order to carry out research on climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. Here we propose a conceptual framework for how to define and develop a set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for use within the scenario framework. We define SSPs as reference pathways describing plausible alternative trends in the evolution of society and ecosystems over a century timescale, in the absence of climate change or climate policies. We introduce the concept of a space of challenges to adaptation and to mitigation that should be spanned by the SSPs, and discuss how particular trends in social, economic, and environmental development could be combined to produce such outcomes. A comparison to the narratives from the scenarios developed in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) illustrates how a starting point for developing SSPs can be defined. We suggest initial development of a set of basic SSPs that could then be extended to meet more specific purposes, and envision a process of application of basic and extended SSPs that would be iterative and potentially lead to modification of the original SSPs themselves.
Uncertainty of biomass contributions from agriculture and forestry to renewable energy resources under climate change
2015, Gutsch, M., Lasch-Born, P., Lüttger, A.B., Suckow, F., Murawski, A., Pilz, T.
Classifying multi-model wheat yield impact response surfaces showing sensitivity to temperature and precipitation change
2017, Fronzek, Stefan, Pirttioja, Nina, Carter, Timothy R., Bindi, Marco, Hoffmann, Holger, Palosuo, Taru, Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita, Tao, Fulu, Trnka, Miroslav, Acutis, Marco, Asseng, Senthold, Baranowski, Piotr, Basso, Bruno, Bodin, Per, Buis, Samuel, Cammarano, Davide, Deligios, Paola, Destain, Marie-France, Dumont, Benjamin, Ewert, Frank, Ferrise, Roberto, François, Louis, Gaiser, Thomas, Hlavinka, Petr, Jacquemin, Ingrid, Kersebaum, Kurt Christian, Kollas, Chris, Krzyszczak, Jaromir, Lorite, Ignacio J., Minet, Julien, Minguez, M. Ines, Montesino, Manuel, Moriondo, Marco, Müller, Christoph, Nendel, Claas, Öztürk, Isik, Perego, Alessia, Rodríguez, Alfredo, Ruane, Alex C., Ruget, Françoise, Sanna, Mattia, Semenov, Mikhail A., Slawinski, Cezary, Stratonovitch, Pierre, Supit, Iwan, Waha, Katharina, Wang, Enli, Wu, Lianhai, Zhao, Zhigan, Rötter, Reimund P.
Crop growth simulation models can differ greatly in their treatment of key processes and hence in their response to environmental conditions. Here, we used an ensemble of 26 process-based wheat models applied at sites across a European transect to compare their sensitivity to changes in temperature (−2 to +9°C) and precipitation (−50 to +50%). Model results were analysed by plotting them as impact response surfaces (IRSs), classifying the IRS patterns of individual model simulations, describing these classes and analysing factors that may explain the major differences in model responses. The model ensemble was used to simulate yields of winter and spring wheat at four sites in Finland, Germany and Spain. Results were plotted as IRSs that show changes in yields relative to the baseline with respect to temperature and precipitation. IRSs of 30-year means and selected extreme years were classified using two approaches describing their pattern. The expert diagnostic approach (EDA) combines two aspects of IRS patterns: location of the maximum yield (nine classes) and strength of the yield response with respect to climate (four classes), resulting in a total of 36 combined classes defined using criteria pre-specified by experts. The statistical diagnostic approach (SDA) groups IRSs by comparing their pattern and magnitude, without attempting to interpret these features. It applies a hierarchical clustering method, grouping response patterns using a distance metric that combines the spatial correlation and Euclidian distance between IRS pairs. The two approaches were used to investigate whether different patterns of yield response could be related to different properties of the crop models, specifically their genealogy, calibration and process description. Although no single model property across a large model ensemble was found to explain the integrated yield response to temperature and precipitation perturbations, the application of the EDA and SDA approaches revealed their capability to distinguish: (i) stronger yield responses to precipitation for winter wheat than spring wheat; (ii) differing strengths of response to climate changes for years with anomalous weather conditions compared to period-average conditions; (iii) the influence of site conditions on yield patterns; (iv) similarities in IRS patterns among models with related genealogy; (v) similarities in IRS patterns for models with simpler process descriptions of root growth and water uptake compared to those with more complex descriptions; and (vi) a closer correspondence of IRS patterns in models using partitioning schemes to represent yield formation than in those using a harvest index. Such results can inform future crop modelling studies that seek to exploit the diversity of multi-model ensembles, by distinguishing ensemble members that span a wide range of responses as well as those that display implausible behaviour or strong mutual similarities.
The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems
2013, Stone, D., Auffhammer, M., Carey, M., Hansen, G., Huggel, C., Cramer, W., Lobell, D., Molau, U., Solow, A., Tibig, L., Yohe, G.
Anthropogenic climate change has triggered impacts on natural and human systems world-wide, yet the formal scientific method of detection and attribution has been only insufficiently described. Detection and attribution of impacts of climate change is a fundamentally cross-disciplinary issue, involving concepts, terms, and standards spanning the varied requirements of the various disciplines. Key problems for current assessments include the limited availability of long-term observations, the limited knowledge on processes and mechanisms involved in changing environmental systems, and the widely different concepts applied in the scientific literature. In order to facilitate current and future assessments, this paper describes the current conceptual framework of the field and outlines a number of conceptual challenges. Based on this, it proposes workable cross-disciplinary definitions, concepts, and standards. The paper is specifically intended to serve as a baseline for continued development of a consistent cross-disciplinary framework that will facilitate integrated assessment of the detection and attribution of climate change impacts.
CHASE-PL—Future Hydrology Data Set: Projections of Water Balance and Streamflow for the Vistula and Odra Basins, Poland
2017, Piniewski, Mikołaj, Szcześniak, Mateusz, Kardel, Ignacy
There is considerable concern that the water resources of Central and Eastern Europe region can be adversely affected by climate change. Projections of future water balance and streamflow conditions can be obtained by forcing hydrological models with the output from climate models. In this study, we employed the SWAT hydrological model driven with an ensemble of nine bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX climate simulations to generate future hydrological projections for the Vistula and Odra basins in two future horizons (2024–2050 and 2074–2100) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The data set consists of three parts: (1) model inputs; (2) raw model outputs; (3) aggregated model outputs. The first one allows the users to reproduce the outputs or to create the new ones. The second one contains the simulated time series of 10 variables simulated by SWAT: precipitation, snow melt, potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, soil water content, percolation, surface runoff, baseflow, water yield and streamflow. The third one consists of the multi-model ensemble statistics of the relative changes in mean seasonal and annual variables developed in a GIS format. The data set should be of interest of climate impact scientists, water managers and water-sector policy makers. In any case, it should be noted that projections included in this data set are associated with high uncertainties explained in this data descriptor paper.
Modeling forest plantations for carbon uptake with the LPJmL dynamic global vegetation model
2019, Braakhekke, Maarten C., Doelman, Jonathan C., Baas, Peter, Müller, Christoph, Schaphoff, Sibyll, Stehfest, Elke, van Vuuren, Detlef P.
We present an extension of the dynamic global vegetation model, Lund-Potsdam-Jena Managed Land (LPJmL), to simulate planted forests intended for carbon (C) sequestration. We implemented three functional types to simulate plantation trees in temperate, tropical, and boreal climates. The parameters of these functional types were optimized to fit target growth curves (TGCs). These curves represent the evolution of stemwood C over time in typical productive plantations and were derived by combining field observations and LPJmL estimates for equivalent natural forests. While the calibrated model underestimates stemwood C growth rates compared to the TGCs, it represents substantial improvement over using natural forests to represent afforestation. Based on a simulation experiment in which we compared global natural forest versus global forest plantation, we found that forest plantations allow for much larger C uptake rates on the timescale of 100 years, with a maximum difference of a factor of 1.9, around 54 years. In subsequent simulations for an ambitious but realistic scenario in which 650Mha (14% of global managed land, 4.5% of global land surface) are converted to forest over 85 years, we found that natural forests take up 37PgC versus 48PgC for forest plantations. Comparing these results to estimations of C sequestration required to achieve the 2°C climate target, we conclude that afforestation can offer a substantial contribution to climate mitigation. Full evaluation of afforestation as a climate change mitigation strategy requires an integrated assessment which considers all relevant aspects, including costs, biodiversity, and trade-offs with other land-use types. Our extended version of LPJmL can contribute to such an assessment by providing improved estimates of C uptake rates by forest plantations. © 2019 American Institute of Physics Inc.. All rights reserved.
Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios
2018, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria, Guo, Yuming, Sera, Francesco, Huber, Veronika, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Mitchell, Dann, Tong, Shilu, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline, Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento, Lavigne, Eric, Matus Correa, Patricia, Valdes Ortega, Nicolas, Kan, Haidong, Osorio, Samuel, Kyselý, Jan, Urban, Aleš, Jaakkola, Jouni J. K., Ryti, Niilo R. I., Pascal, Mathilde, Goodman, Patrick G., Zeka, Ariana, Michelozzi, Paola, Scortichini, Matteo, Hashizume, Masahiro, Honda, Yasushi, Hurtado-Diaz, Magali, Cruz, Julio, Seposo, Xerxes, Kim, Ho, Tobias, Aurelio, Íñiguez, Carmen, Forsberg, Bertil, Åström, Daniel Oudin, Ragettli, Martina S., Röösli, Martin, Guo, Yue Leon, Wu, Chang-fu, Zanobetti, Antonella, Schwartz, Joel, Bell, Michelle L., Dang, Tran Ngoc, Do Van, Dung, Heaviside, Clare, Vardoulakis, Sotiris, Hajat, Shakoor, Haines, Andy, Armstrong, Ben, Ebi, Kristie L., Gasparrini, Antonio
The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to “hold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C”. The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.
The impact of climate change and variability on the generation of electrical power
2015, Koch, H., Vögele, S., Hattermann, F.F., Huang, S.