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- ItemSemitractability of optimal stopping problems via a weighted stochastic mesh algorithm(Oxford [u.a.] : Wiley-Blackwell, 2020) Belomestny, Denis; Kaledin, Maxim; Schoenmakers, JohnIn this paper, we propose a Weighted Stochastic Mesh (WSM) algorithm for approximating the value of discrete- and continuous-time optimal stopping problems. In this context, we consider tractability of such problems via a useful notion of semitractability and the introduction of a tractability index for a particular numerical solution algorithm. It is shown that in the discrete-time case the WSM algorithm leads to semitractability of the corresponding optimal stopping problem in the sense that its complexity is bounded in order by (Formula presented.) with (Formula presented.) being the dimension of the underlying Markov chain. Furthermore, we study the WSM approach in the context of continuous-time optimal stopping problems and derive the corresponding complexity bounds. Although we cannot prove semitractability in this case, our bounds turn out to be the tightest ones among the complexity bounds known in the literature. We illustrate our theoretical findings by a numerical example. © 2020 Wiley Periodicals LLC
- ItemThe invariant distribution of wealth and employment status in a small open economy with precautionary savings(Amsterdam : North-Holland, 2019) Bayer, Christian; Rendall, Alan D.; Wälde, KlausWe study optimal savings in continuous time with exogenous transitions between employment and unemployment as the only source of uncertainty in a small open economy. We prove the existence of an optimal consumption path. We exploit that the dynamics of consumption and wealth between jumps can be expressed as a Fuchsian system. We derive conditions under which an invariant joint distribution for the state variables, i.e., wealth and labour market status, exists and is unique. We also provide conditions under which the distribution of these variables converges to the invariant distribution. Our analysis relies on the notion of T-processes and applies results on the stability of Markovian processes from Meyn and Tweedie (1993a, b,c). © 2019 The Author(s)
- ItemOn the algorithmic solution of optimization problems subject to probabilistic/robust (probust) constraints(Berlin ; Heidelberg : Springer, 2021) Berthold, Holger; Heitsch, Holger; Henrion, René; Schwientek, JanWe present an adaptive grid refinement algorithm to solve probabilistic optimization problems with infinitely many random constraints. Using a bilevel approach, we iteratively aggregate inequalities that provide most information not in a geometric but in a probabilistic sense. This conceptual idea, for which a convergence proof is provided, is then adapted to an implementable algorithm. The efficiency of our approach when compared to naive methods based on uniform grid refinement is illustrated for a numerical test example as well as for a water reservoir problem with joint probabilistic filling level constraints.
- ItemShort-time near-the-money skew in rough fractional volatility models(London : Taylor & Francis, 2018) Bayer, C.; Friz, P.K.; Gulisashvili, A.; Horvath, B.; Stemper, B.We consider rough stochastic volatility models where the driving noise of volatility has fractional scaling, in the ‘rough’ regime of Hurst parameter H<1/2. This regime recently attracted a lot of attention both from the statistical and option pricing point of view. With focus on the latter, we sharpen the large deviation results of Forde-Zhang [Asymptotics for rough stochastic volatility models. SIAM J. Financ. Math., 2017, 8(1), 114–145] in a way that allows us to zoom-in around the money while maintaining full analytical tractability. More precisely, this amounts to proving higher order moderate deviation estimates, only recently introduced in the option pricing context. This in turn allows us to push the applicability range of known at-the-money skew approximation formulae from CLT type log-moneyness deviations of order t1/2 (works of Alòs, León & Vives and Fukasawa) to the wider moderate deviations regime.
- ItemOptimal Control Problems with Sparsity for Tumor Growth Models Involving Variational Inequalities(Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media, 2022) Colli, Pierluigi; Signori, Andrea; Sprekels, JürgenThis paper treats a distributed optimal control problem for a tumor growth model of Cahn–Hilliard type. The evolution of the tumor fraction is governed by a variational inequality corresponding to a double obstacle nonlinearity occurring in the associated potential. In addition, the control and state variables are nonlinearly coupled and, furthermore, the cost functional contains a nondifferentiable term like the L1-norm in order to include sparsity effects which is of utmost relevance, especially time sparsity, in the context of cancer therapies as applying a control to the system reflects in exposing the patient to an intensive medical treatment. To cope with the difficulties originating from the variational inequality in the state system, we employ the so-called deep quench approximation in which the convex part of the double obstacle potential is approximated by logarithmic functions. For such functions, first-order necessary conditions of optimality can be established by invoking recent results. We use these results to derive corresponding optimality conditions also for the double obstacle case, by deducing a variational inequality in terms of the associated adjoint state variables. The resulting variational inequality can be exploited to also obtain sparsity results for the optimal controls.
- ItemShort-dated smile under rough volatility: asymptotics and numerics(London : Taylor & Francis, 2021) Friz, Peter K.; Gassiat, Paul; Pigato, PaoloIn Friz et al. [Precise asymptotics for robust stochastic volatility models. Ann. Appl. Probab, 2021, 31(2), 896–940], we introduce a new methodology to analyze large classes of (classical and rough) stochastic volatility models, with special regard to short-time and small-noise formulae for option prices, using the framework [Bayer et al., A regularity structure for rough volatility. Math. Finance, 2020, 30(3), 782–832]. We investigate here the fine structure of this expansion in large deviations and moderate deviations regimes, together with consequences for implied volatility. We discuss computational aspects relevant for the practical application of these formulas. We specialize such expansions to prototypical rough volatility examples and discuss numerical evidence.
- ItemA regularity structure for rough volatility(Oxford [u.a.] : Wiley-Blackwell, 2019) Bayer, Christian; Friz, Peter K.; Gassiat, Paul; Martin, Jorg; Stemper, BenjaminA new paradigm has emerged recently in financial modeling: rough (stochastic) volatility. First observed by Gatheral et al. in high-frequency data, subsequently derived within market microstructure models, rough volatility captures parsimoniously key-stylized facts of the entire implied volatility surface, including extreme skews (as observed earlier by Alòs et al.) that were thought to be outside the scope of stochastic volatility models. On the mathematical side, Markovianity and, partially, semimartingality are lost. In this paper, we show that Hairer's regularity structures, a major extension of rough path theory, which caused a revolution in the field of stochastic partial differential equations, also provide a new and powerful tool to analyze rough volatility models.
- ItemOption pricing in the moderate deviations regime(Oxford [u.a.] : Wiley-Blackwell, 2017) Friz, Peter; Gerhold, Stefan; Pinter, ArpadWe consider call option prices close to expiry in diffusion models, in an asymptotic regime (“moderately out of the money”) that interpolates between the well-studied cases of at-the-money and out-of-the-money regimes. First and higher order small-time moderate deviation estimates of call prices and implied volatilities are obtained. The expansions involve only simple expressions of the model parameters, and we show how to calculate them for generic local and stochastic volatility models. Some numerical computations for the Heston model illustrate the accuracy of our results.