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- ItemRegional effects of atmospheric aerosols on temperature: An evaluation of an ensemble of online coupled models(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2017) Baró, Rocío; Palacios-Peña, Laura; Baklanov, Alexander; Balzarini, Alessandra; Brunner, Dominik; Forkel, Renate; Hirtl, Marcus; Honzak, Luka; Pérez, Juan Luis; Pirovano, Guido; San José, Roberto; Schröder, Wolfram; Werhahn, Johannes; Wolke, Ralf; Žabkar, Rahela; Jiménez-Guerrero, PedroThe climate effect of atmospheric aerosols is associated with their influence on the radiative budget of the Earth due to the direct aerosol-radiation interactions (ARIs) and indirect effects, resulting from aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions (ACIs). Online coupled meteorology-chemistry models permit the description of these effects on the basis of simulated atmospheric aerosol concentrations, although there is still some uncertainty associated with the use of these models. Thus, the objective of this work is to assess whether the inclusion of atmospheric aerosol radiative feedbacks of an ensemble of online coupled models improves the simulation results for maximum, mean and minimum temperature at 2m over Europe. The evaluated models outputs originate from EuMetChem COST Action ES1004 simulations for Europe, differing in the inclusion (or omission) of ARI and ACI in the various models. The cases studies cover two important atmospheric aerosol episodes over Europe in the year 2010: (i) a heat wave event and a forest fire episode (July-August 2010) and (ii) a more humid episode including a Saharan desert dust outbreak in October 2010. The simulation results are evaluated against observational data from the E-OBS gridded database. The results indicate that, although there is only a slight improvement in the bias of the simulation results when including the radiative feedbacks, the spatiotemporal variability and correlation coefficients are improved for the cases under study when atmospheric aerosol radiative effects are included.
- ItemModeling forest plantations for carbon uptake with the LPJmL dynamic global vegetation model(Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2019) Braakhekke, Maarten C.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Baas, Peter; Müller, Christoph; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.We present an extension of the dynamic global vegetation model, Lund-Potsdam-Jena Managed Land (LPJmL), to simulate planted forests intended for carbon (C) sequestration. We implemented three functional types to simulate plantation trees in temperate, tropical, and boreal climates. The parameters of these functional types were optimized to fit target growth curves (TGCs). These curves represent the evolution of stemwood C over time in typical productive plantations and were derived by combining field observations and LPJmL estimates for equivalent natural forests. While the calibrated model underestimates stemwood C growth rates compared to the TGCs, it represents substantial improvement over using natural forests to represent afforestation. Based on a simulation experiment in which we compared global natural forest versus global forest plantation, we found that forest plantations allow for much larger C uptake rates on the timescale of 100 years, with a maximum difference of a factor of 1.9, around 54 years. In subsequent simulations for an ambitious but realistic scenario in which 650Mha (14% of global managed land, 4.5% of global land surface) are converted to forest over 85 years, we found that natural forests take up 37PgC versus 48PgC for forest plantations. Comparing these results to estimations of C sequestration required to achieve the 2°C climate target, we conclude that afforestation can offer a substantial contribution to climate mitigation. Full evaluation of afforestation as a climate change mitigation strategy requires an integrated assessment which considers all relevant aspects, including costs, biodiversity, and trade-offs with other land-use types. Our extended version of LPJmL can contribute to such an assessment by providing improved estimates of C uptake rates by forest plantations. © 2019 American Institute of Physics Inc.. All rights reserved.
- ItemThe effect of univariate bias adjustment on multivariate hazard estimates(Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2019) Zscheischler, Jakob; Fischer, Erich M.; Lange, StefanBias adjustment is often a necessity in estimating climate impacts because impact models usually rely on unbiased climate information, a requirement that climate model outputs rarely fulfil. Most currently used statistical bias-adjustment methods adjust each climate variable separately, even though impacts usually depend on multiple potentially dependent variables. Human heat stress, for instance, depends on temperature and relative humidity, two variables that are often strongly correlated. Whether univariate bias-adjustment methods effectively improve estimates of impacts that depend on multiple drivers is largely unknown, and the lack of long-term impact data prevents a direct comparison between model outputs and observations for many climate-related impacts. Here we use two hazard indicators, heat stress and a simple fire risk indicator, as proxies for more sophisticated impact models. We show that univariate bias-adjustment methods such as univariate quantile mapping often cannot effectively reduce biases in multivariate hazard estimates. In some cases, it even increases biases. These cases typically occur (i) when hazards depend equally strongly on more than one climatic driver, (ii) when models exhibit biases in the dependence structure of drivers and (iii) when univariate biases are relatively small. Using a perfect model approach, we further quantify the uncertainty in bias-adjusted hazard indicators due to internal variability and show how imperfect bias adjustment can amplify this uncertainty. Both issues can be addressed successfully with a statistical bias adjustment that corrects the multivariate dependence structure in addition to the marginal distributions of the climate drivers. Our results suggest that currently many modeled climate impacts are associated with uncertainties related to the choice of bias adjustment. We conclude that in cases where impacts depend on multiple dependent climate variables these uncertainties can be reduced using statistical bias-adjustment approaches that correct the variables' multivariate dependence structure. © 2019 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved.
- ItemDiverging importance of drought stress for maize and winter wheat in Europe([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2018) Webber, Heidi; Ewert, Frank; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Müller, Christoph; Fronzek, Stefan; Ruane, Alex C.; Bourgault, Maryse; Martre, Pierre; Ababaei, Behnam; Bindi, Marco; Ferrise, Roberto; Finger, Robert; Fodor, Nándor; Gabaldón-Leal, Clara; Gaiser, Thomas; Jabloun, Mohamed; Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian; Lizaso, Jon I.; Lorite, Ignacio J.; Manceau, Loic; Moriondo, Marco; Nendel, Claas; Rodríguez, Alfredo; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Siebert, Stefan; Stella, Tommaso; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Trombi, Giacomo; Wallach, DanielUnderstanding the drivers of yield levels under climate change is required to support adaptation planning and respond to changing production risks. This study uses an ensemble of crop models applied on a spatial grid to quantify the contributions of various climatic drivers to past yield variability in grain maize and winter wheat of European cropping systems (1984–2009) and drivers of climate change impacts to 2050. Results reveal that for the current genotypes and mix of irrigated and rainfed production, climate change would lead to yield losses for grain maize and gains for winter wheat. Across Europe, on average heat stress does not increase for either crop in rainfed systems, while drought stress intensifies for maize only. In low-yielding years, drought stress persists as the main driver of losses for both crops, with elevated CO2 offering no yield benefit in these years.
- ItemNumerical modelling of climate change impacts on freshwater lenses on the North Sea Island of Borkum using hydrological and geophysical methods(Munich : EGU, 2012) Sulzbacher, H.; Wiederhold, H.; Siemon, B.; Grinat, M.; Igel, J.; Burschil, T.; Günther, T.; Hinsby, K.A numerical, density dependent groundwater model is set up for the North Sea Island of Borkum to estimate climate change impacts on coastal aquifers and especially the situation of barrier islands in the Wadden Sea. The database includes information from boreholes, a seismic survey, a helicopter-borne electromagnetic (HEM) survey, monitoring of the freshwater-saltwater boundary by vertical electrode chains in two boreholes, measurements of groundwater table, pumping and slug tests, as well as water samples. Based on a statistical analysis of borehole columns, seismic sections and HEM, a hydrogeological model is set up. The groundwater model is developed using the finite-element programme FEFLOW. The density dependent groundwater model is calibrated on the basis of hydraulic, hydrological and geophysical data, in particular spatial HEM and local monitoring data. Verification runs with the calibrated model show good agreement between measured and computed hydraulic heads. A good agreement is also obtained between measured and computed density or total dissolved solids data for both the entire freshwater lens on a large scale and in the area of the well fields on a small scale. For simulating future changes in this coastal groundwater system until the end of the current century, we use the climate scenario A2, specified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and, in particular, the data for the German North Sea coast. Simulation runs show proceeding salinisation with time beneath the well fields of the two waterworks Waterdelle and Ostland. The modelling study shows that the spreading of well fields is an appropriate protection measure against excessive salinisation of the water supply until the end of the current century.
- ItemCompiling geophysical and geological information into a 3-D model of the glacially-affected island of Föhr(Munich : EGU, 2012) Burschil, T.; Scheer, W.; Kirsch, R.; Wiederhold, H.Within the scope of climatic change and associated sea level rise, coastal aquifers are endangered and are becoming more a focus of research to ensure the future water supply in coastal areas. For groundwater modelling a good understanding of the geological/hydrogeological situation and the aquifer behavior is necessary. In preparation of groundwater modelling and assessment of climate change impacts on coastal water resources, we setup a geological/hydrogeological model for the North Sea Island of Föhr. Data from different geophysical methods applied from the air, the surface and in boreholes contribute to the 3-D model, e.g. airborne electromagnetics (SkyTEM) for spatial mapping the resistivity of the entire island, seismic reflections for detailed cross-sections in the groundwater catchment area, and geophysical borehole logging for calibration of these measurements. An iterative and integrated evaluation of the results from the different geophysical methods contributes to reliable data as input for the 3-D model covering the whole island and not just the well fields. The complex subsurface structure of the island is revealed. The local waterworks use a freshwater body embedded in saline groundwater. Several glaciations reordered the youngest Tertiary and Quaternary sediments by glaciotectonic thrust faulting, as well as incision and refill of glacial valleys. Both subsurface structures have a strong impact on the distribution of freshwater-bearing aquifers. A digital geological 3-D model reproduces the hydrogeological structure of the island as a base for a groundwater model. In the course of the data interpretation, we deliver a basis for rock identification. We demonstrate that geophysical investigation provide petrophysical parameters and improve the understanding of the subsurface and the groundwater system. The main benefit of our work is that the successful combination of electromagnetic, seismic and borehole data reveals the complex geology of a glacially-affected island. A sound understanding of the subsurface structure and the compilation of a 3-D model is imperative and the basis for a groundwater flow model to predict climate change effects on future water resources.
- ItemHydraulic properties at the North Sea island of Borkum derived from joint inversion of magnetic resonance and electrical resistivity soundings(Munich : EGU, 2012) Günther, T.; Müller-Petke, M.For reliably predicting the impact of climate changes on salt/freshwater systems below barrier islands, a long-term hydraulic modelling is inevitable. As input we need the parameters porosity, salinity and hydraulic conductivity at the catchment scale, preferably non-invasively acquired with geophysical methods. We present a methodology to retrieve the searched parameters and a lithological interpretation by the joint analysis of magnetic resonance soundings (MRS) and vertical electric soundings (VES). Both data sets are jointly inverted for resistivity, water content and decay time using a joint inversion scheme. Coupling is accomplished by common layer thicknesses. We show the results of three soundings measured on the eastern part of the North Sea island of Borkum. Pumping test data is used to calibrate the petrophysical relationship for the local conditions in order to estimate permeability from nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) data. Salinity is retrieved from water content and resistivity using a modified Archie equation calibrated by local samples. As a result we are able to predict porosity, salinity and hydraulic conductivities of the aquifers, including their uncertainties. The joint inversion significantly improves the reliability of the results. Verification is given by comparison with a borehole. A sounding in the flooding area demonstrates that only the combined inversion provides a correct subsurface model. Thanks to the joint application, we are able to distinguish fluid conductivity from lithology and provide reliable hydraulic parameters as shown by uncertainty analysis. These findings can finally be used to build groundwater flow models for simulating climate changes. This includes the improved geometry and lithological attribution, and also the parameters and their uncertainties. © Author(s) 2012.
- ItemSource apportionment of the organic aerosol over the Atlantic Ocean from 53° N to 53° S: Significant contributions from marine emissions and long-range transport(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2018) Huang, Shan; Wu, Zhijun; Poulain, Laurent; van Pinxteren, Manuela; Merkel, Maik; Assmann, Denise; Herrmann, Hartmut; Wiedensohler, AlfredMarine aerosol particles are an important part of the natural aerosol systems and might have a significant impact on the global climate and biological cycle. It is widely accepted that truly pristine marine conditions are difficult to find over the ocean. However, the influence of continental and anthropogenic emissions on the marine boundary layer (MBL) aerosol is still less understood and non-quantitative, causing uncertainties in the estimation of the climate effect of marine aerosols. This study presents a detailed chemical characterization of the MBL aerosol as well as the source apportionment of the organic aerosol (OA) composition. The data set covers the Atlantic Ocean from 53∘ N to 53∘ S, based on four open-ocean cruises in 2011 and 2012. The aerosol particle composition was measured with a high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS), which indicated that sub-micrometer aerosol particles over the Atlantic Ocean are mainly composed of sulfates (50 % of the particle mass concentration), organics (21 %) and sea salt (12 %). OA has been apportioned into five factors, including three factors linked to marine sources and two with continental and/or anthropogenic origins. The marine oxygenated OA (MOOA, 16 % of the total OA mass) and marine nitrogen-containing OA (MNOA, 16 %) are identified as marine secondary products with gaseous biogenic precursors dimethyl sulfide (DMS) or amines. Marine hydrocarbon-like OA (MHOA, 19 %) was attributed to the primary emissions from the Atlantic Ocean. The factor for the anthropogenic oxygenated OA (Anth-OOA, 19 %) is related to continental long-range transport. Represented by the combustion oxygenated OA (Comb-OOA), aged combustion emissions from maritime traffic and wild fires in Africa contributed, on average, a large fraction to the total OA mass (30 %). This study provides the important finding that long-range transport was found to contribute averagely 49 % of the submicron OA mass over the Atlantic Ocean. This is almost equal to that from marine sources (51 %). Furthermore, a detailed latitudinal distribution of OA source contributions showed that DMS oxidation contributed markedly to the OA over the South Atlantic during spring, while continental-related long-range transport largely influenced the marine atmosphere near Europe and western and central Africa (15∘ N to 15∘ S). In addition, supported by a solid correlation between marine tracer methanesulfonic acid (MSA) and the DMS-oxidation OA (MOOA, R2>0.85), this study suggests that the DMS-related secondary organic aerosol (SOA) over the Atlantic Ocean could be estimated by MSA and a scaling factor of 1.79, especially in spring.