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- ItemFuture tree survival in European forests depends on understorey tree diversity(London : Nature Publishing Group, 2022) Billing, Maik; Thonicke, Kirsten; Sakschewski, Boris; Bloh, Werner von; Walz, ArianeClimate change heavily threatens forest ecosystems worldwide and there is urgent need to understand what controls tree survival and forests stability. There is evidence that biodiversity can enhance ecosystem stability (Loreau and de Mazancourt in Ecol Lett 16:106–115, 2013; McCann in Nature 405:228–233, 2000), however it remains largely unclear whether this also holds for climate change and what aspects of biodiversity might be most important. Here we apply machine learning to outputs of a flexible-trait Dynamic Global Vegetation Model to unravel the effects of enhanced functional tree trait diversity and its sub-components on climate-change resistance of temperate forests (http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~billing/video/Forest_Resistance_LPJmLFIT.mp4). We find that functional tree trait diversity enhances forest resistance. We explain this with 1. stronger complementarity effects (~ 25% importance) especially improving the survival of trees in the understorey of up to + 16.8% (± 1.6%) and 2. environmental and competitive filtering of trees better adapted to future climate (40–87% importance). We conclude that forests containing functionally diverse trees better resist and adapt to future conditions. In this context, we especially highlight the role of functionally diverse understorey trees as they provide the fundament for better survival of young trees and filtering of resistant tree individuals in the future.
- ItemCommon solar wind drivers behind magnetic storm–magnetospheric substorm dependency([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2018) Runge, Jakob; Balasis, Georgios; Daglis, Ioannis A.; Papadimitriou, Constantinos; Donner, Reik V.The dynamical relationship between magnetic storms and magnetospheric substorms is one of the most controversial issues of contemporary space research. Here, we address this issue through a causal inference approach to two corresponding indices in conjunction with several relevant solar wind variables. We find that the vertical component of the interplanetary magnetic field is the strongest and common driver of both storms and substorms. Further, our results suggest, at least based on the analyzed indices, that there is no statistical evidence for a direct or indirect dependency between substorms and storms and their statistical association can be explained by the common solar drivers. Given the powerful statistical tests we performed (by simultaneously taking into account time series of indices and solar wind variables), a physical mechanism through which substorms directly or indirectly drive storms or vice versa is, therefore, unlikely.
- ItemYield trends, variability and stagnation analysis of major crops in France over more than a century([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2018) Schauberger, Bernhard; Ben-Ari, Tamara; Makowski, David; Kato, Tomomichi; Kato, Hiromi; Ciais, PhilippeFrance is a major crop producer, with a production share of approx. 20% within the European Union. Yet, a discussion has recently started whether French yields are stagnating. While for wheat previous results are unanimously pointing to recent stagnation, there is contradictory evidence for maize and few to no results for other crops. Here we analyse a data set with more than 120,000 yield observations from 1900 to 2016 for ten crops (barley, durum and soft wheat, maize, oats, potatoes, rapeseed, sugar beet, sunflower and wine) in the 96 mainland French départements (NUTS3 administrative division). We dissect the evolution of yield trends over time and space, analyse yield variation and evaluate whether growth of yields has stalled in recent years. Yields have, on average across crops, multiplied four-fold over the course of the 20th century. While absolute yield variability has increased, the variation relative to the mean has halved – mean yields have increased faster than their variability. But growth of yields has stagnated since the 1990’s for winter wheat, barley, oats, durum wheat, sunflower and wine on at least 25% of their areas. Reaching yield potentials is unlikely as a cause for stagnation. Maize, in contrast, shows no evidence for stagnation.
- ItemPredictability of properties of a fractured geothermal reservoir: the opportunities and limitations of an outcrop analogue study(Berlin ; Heidelberg [u.a.] : SpringerOpen, 2017) Bauer, Johanna F.; Krumbholz, Michael; Meier, Silke; Tanner, David C.Minimizing exploration risk in deep geothermics is of great economic importance. Especially, knowledge about temperature and permeability of the reservoir is essential. We test the potential of an outcrop analogue study to minimize uncertainties in prediction of the rock properties of a fractured reservoir in the Upper Rhine Graben. Our results show that although mineralogical composition, clay content, grain size, and fabric type are basically comparable, porosity and quartz cementation are not. Young’s modulus, as observed in the outcrop closest to the reservoir is about twice as high (~ 64 GPa) as observed in the reservoir (~ 34 GPa). Most importantly, however, the parameters that describe the fracture system, which are essential to predict reservoir permeability, differ significantly. While the outcrops are dominated by perpendicular fracture sets (striking NE–SW and NW–SE), two different conjugate fracture sets (striking NW–SE and N–S) occur in the reservoir. Fracture apertures, as reported from the FMI, are one order of magnitude wider than in the outcrop. We conclude that our outcrop analogue study fails to predict important properties of the reservoir (such as permeability and porosity). This must be in part because of the tectonically complex setting of the reservoir. We propose that analogue studies are important, but they must be treated with care when attempting to predict the controlling parameters of a fractured reservoir.
- ItemS-wave experiments for the exploration of a deep geothermal carbonate reservoir in the German Molasse Basin(Berlin ; Heidelberg [u.a.] : SpringerOpen, 2021) Wawerzinek, Britta; Buness, Hermann; von Hartmann, Hartwig; Tanner, David C.There are many successful geothermal projects that exploit the Upper Jurassic aquifer at 2–3 km depth in the German Molasse Basin. However, up to now, only P-wave seismic exploration has been carried out. In an experiment in the Greater Munich area, we recorded S-waves that were generated by the conventional P-wave seismic survey, using 3C receivers. From this, we built a 3D volume of P- to S-converted (PS) waves using the asymptotic conversion point approach. By combining the P-volume and the resulting PS-seismic volume, we were able to derive the spatial distribution of the vp/vs ratio of both the Molasse overburden and the Upper Jurassic reservoir. We found that the vp/vs ratios for the Molasse units range from 2.0 to 2.3 with a median of 2.15, which is much higher than previously assumed. This raises the depth of hypocenters of induced earthquakes in surrounding geothermal wells. The vp/vs ratios found in the Upper Jurassic vary laterally between 1.5 and 2.2. Since no boreholes are available for verification, we test our results against an independently derived facies classification of the conventional 3D seismic volume and found it correlates well. Furthermore, we see that low vp/vs ratios correlate with high vp and vs velocities. We interpret the latter as dolomitized rocks, which are connected with enhanced permeability in the reservoir. We conclude that 3C registration of conventional P-wave surveys is worthwhile.
- ItemPorosity estimation of a geothermal carbonate reservoir in the German Molasse Basin based on seismic amplitude inversion(Berlin ; Heidelberg [u.a.] : SpringerOpen, 2022) Wadas, Sonja Halina; von Hartmann, HartwigThe Molasse Basin is one of the most promising areas for deep geothermal exploitation in Germany and the target horizon is the aquifer in the Upper Jurassic carbonates. Carbonate deposits can be very heterogeneous even over a small area due to diagenetic processes and varying depositional environments. The preferential targets for geothermal exploitation in carbonate deposits are fault zones, reef facies and karstified areas, since they are expected to act as hydraulically permeable zones due to high porosity and high permeability. Therefore, identifying these structures and characterizing, e.g., their internal porosity distribution are of high importance. This can be accomplished using 3D reflection seismic data. Besides structural information, 3D seismic surveys provide important reservoir properties, such as acoustic impedance, from which a porosity model can be derived. In our study area in Munich we carried out a seismic amplitude inversion to get an acoustic impedance model of the Upper Jurassic carbonate reservoir using a 3D seismic data set, a corresponding structural geological model, and logging data from six wells at the ‘Schäftlarnstraße’ geothermal site. The impedance model and porosity logs were than used to calculate a porosity model. The model shows a wide porosity range from 0 to 20% for the entire reservoir zone and the lithology along the wells reveals that dolomitic limestone has the highest porosities and calcareous dolomite has the lowest porosities. The study area is cut by a large W–E striking fault, the Munich Fault, and the footwall north of it shows higher porosities and more intense karstification than the hanging wall to the south. Considering the entire study area, an increase in porosity from east to west is observed. Furthermore, we identified a complex porosity distribution in reef buildups and pinnacle reefs. The reef cores have mostly low porosities of, e.g., < 3% and the highest porosities of up to 7 to 14% are observed at the reef caps and on the reef slopes. The reef slopes show a characteristic interfingering of the reef facies with the surrounding bedded facies, which indicates a syn-sedimentary reef development with slightly varying build up growth rates. We also assessed the reservoir quality with regard to porosity distribution and determined areas with moderate to good quality for geothermal exploitation by defining porosity evaluation levels. The porosity evaluation maps show that the carbonate rocks of Berriasian to Malm ζ1 are preferential targets for exploitation, especially in the footwall of the Munich Fault and to the west of the hanging wall, because these areas are characterized by high porosities due to intense karstification of bedded and massive facies, although the latter is mainly restricted to reef caps and reef slopes.
- ItemThe influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude summer circulation([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2018) Coumou, D.; Di Capua, G.; Vavrus, S.; Wang, L.; Wang, S.Accelerated warming in the Arctic, as compared to the rest of the globe, might have profound impacts on mid-latitude weather. Most studies analyzing Arctic links to mid-latitude weather focused on winter, yet recent summers have seen strong reductions in sea-ice extent and snow cover, a weakened equator-to-pole thermal gradient and associated weakening of the mid-latitude circulation. We review the scientific evidence behind three leading hypotheses on the influence of Arctic changes on mid-latitude summer weather: Weakened storm tracks, shifted jet streams, and amplified quasi-stationary waves. We show that interactions between Arctic teleconnections and other remote and regional feedback processes could lead to more persistent hot-dry extremes in the mid-latitudes. The exact nature of these non-linear interactions is not well quantified but they provide potential high-impact risks for society.
- ItemIntercomparison of regional loss estimates from global synthetic tropical cyclone models([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2022) Meiler, Simona; Vogt, Thomas; Bloemendaal, Nadia; Ciullo, Alessio; Lee, Chia-Ying; Camargo, Suzana J.; Emanuel, Kerry; Bresch, David N.Tropical cyclones (TCs) cause devastating damage to life and property. Historical TC data is scarce, complicating adequate TC risk assessments. Synthetic TC models are specifically designed to overcome this scarcity. While these models have been evaluated on their ability to simulate TC activity, no study to date has focused on model performance and applicability in TC risk assessments. This study performs the intercomparison of four different global-scale synthetic TC datasets in the impact space, comparing impact return period curves, probability of rare events, and hazard intensity distribution over land. We find that the model choice influences the costliest events, particularly in basins with limited TC activity. Modelled direct economic damages in the North Indian Ocean, for instance, range from 40 to 246 billion USD for the 100-yr event over the four hazard sets. We furthermore provide guidelines for the suitability of the different synthetic models for various research purposes.
- ItemOvercoming global inequality is critical for land-based mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2022) Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Orlov, Anton; Windisch, Michael Gregory; Menke, Inga; Pongratz, Julia; Havermann, Felix; Thiery, Wim; Luo, Fei; v. Jeetze, Patrick; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Weindl, Isabelle; Lejeune, QuentinTransformation pathways for the land sector in line with the Paris Agreement depend on the assumption of globally implemented greenhouse gas (GHG) emission pricing, and in some cases also on inclusive socio-economic development and sustainable land-use practices. In such pathways, the majority of GHG emission reductions in the land system is expected to come from low- and middle-income countries, which currently account for a large share of emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU). However, in low- and middle-income countries the economic, financial and institutional barriers for such transformative changes are high. Here, we show that if sustainable development in the land sector remained highly unequal and limited to high-income countries only, global AFOLU emissions would remain substantial throughout the 21st century. Our model-based projections highlight that overcoming global inequality is critical for land-based mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement. While also a scenario purely based on either global GHG emission pricing or on inclusive socio-economic development would achieve the stringent emissions reductions required, only the latter ensures major co-benefits for other Sustainable Development Goals, especially in low- and middle-income regions.
- ItemLow atmospheric CO2 levels before the rise of forested ecosystems([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2022) Dahl, Tais W.; Harding, Magnus A. R.; Brugger, Julia; Feulner, Georg; Norrman, Kion; Lomax, Barry H.; Junium, Christopher K.The emergence of forests on Earth (~385 million years ago, Ma)1 has been linked to an order-of-magnitude decline in atmospheric CO2 levels and global climatic cooling by altering continental weathering processes, but observational constraints on atmospheric CO2 before the rise of forests carry large, often unbound, uncertainties. Here, we calibrate a mechanistic model for gas exchange in modern lycophytes and constrain atmospheric CO2 levels 410–380 Ma from related fossilized plants with bound uncertainties of approximately ±100 ppm (1 sd). We find that the atmosphere contained ~525–715 ppm CO2 before continents were afforested, and that Earth was partially glaciated according to a palaeoclimate model. A process-driven biogeochemical model (COPSE) shows the appearance of trees with deep roots did not dramatically enhance atmospheric CO2 removal. Rather, shallow-rooted vascular ecosystems could have simultaneously caused abrupt atmospheric oxygenation and climatic cooling long before the rise of forests, although earlier CO2 levels are still unknown.