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- ItemTrajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene(Washington, DC : NAS, 2018) Steffen, Will; Rockström, Johan; Richardson, Katherine; Lenton, Timothy M.; Folke, Carl; Liverman, Diana; Summerhayes, Colin P.; Barnosky, Anthony D.; Cornell, Sarah E.; Crucifix, Michel; Donges, Jonathan F.; Fetzer, Ingo; Lade, Steven J.; Scheffer, Marten; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Schellnhuber, Hans JoachimWe explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a “Hothouse Earth” pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System—biosphere, climate, and societies—and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values.
- ItemCellular responses to beating hydrogels to investigate mechanotransduction([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2019) Chandorkar, Yashoda; Castro Nava, Arturo; Schweizerhof, Sjören; Van Dongen, Marcel; Haraszti, Tamás; Köhler, Jens; Zhang, Hang; Windoffer, Reinhard; Mourran, Ahmed; Möller, Martin; De Laporte, LauraCells feel the forces exerted on them by the surrounding extracellular matrix (ECM) environment and respond to them. While many cell fate processes are dictated by these forces, which are highly synchronized in space and time, abnormal force transduction is implicated in the progression of many diseases (muscular dystrophy, cancer). However, material platforms that enable transient, cyclic forces in vitro to recreate an in vivo-like scenario remain a challenge. Here, we report a hydrogel system that rapidly beats (actuates) with spatio-temporal control using a near infra-red light trigger. Small, user-defined mechanical forces (~nN) are exerted on cells growing on the hydrogel surface at frequencies up to 10 Hz, revealing insights into the effect of actuation on cell migration and the kinetics of reversible nuclear translocation of the mechanosensor protein myocardin related transcription factor A, depending on the actuation amplitude, duration and frequency.
- ItemDiverging importance of drought stress for maize and winter wheat in Europe([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2018) Webber, Heidi; Ewert, Frank; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Müller, Christoph; Fronzek, Stefan; Ruane, Alex C.; Bourgault, Maryse; Martre, Pierre; Ababaei, Behnam; Bindi, Marco; Ferrise, Roberto; Finger, Robert; Fodor, Nándor; Gabaldón-Leal, Clara; Gaiser, Thomas; Jabloun, Mohamed; Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian; Lizaso, Jon I.; Lorite, Ignacio J.; Manceau, Loic; Moriondo, Marco; Nendel, Claas; Rodríguez, Alfredo; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Siebert, Stefan; Stella, Tommaso; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Trombi, Giacomo; Wallach, DanielUnderstanding the drivers of yield levels under climate change is required to support adaptation planning and respond to changing production risks. This study uses an ensemble of crop models applied on a spatial grid to quantify the contributions of various climatic drivers to past yield variability in grain maize and winter wheat of European cropping systems (1984–2009) and drivers of climate change impacts to 2050. Results reveal that for the current genotypes and mix of irrigated and rainfed production, climate change would lead to yield losses for grain maize and gains for winter wheat. Across Europe, on average heat stress does not increase for either crop in rainfed systems, while drought stress intensifies for maize only. In low-yielding years, drought stress persists as the main driver of losses for both crops, with elevated CO2 offering no yield benefit in these years.
- ItemProjected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events: The role of quasi-resonant amplification(Washington, DC [u.a.] : Assoc., 2018) Mann, Michael E.; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Kornhuber, Kai; Steinman, Byron A.; Miller, Sonya K.; Petri, Stefan; Coumou, DimPersistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been associated with highamplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves, with zonal wave numbers 6 to 8 resulting from the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA). A fingerprint for the occurrence of QRA can be defined in terms of the zonally averaged surface temperature field. Examining state-of-the-art [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)] climate model projections, we find that QRA events are likely to increase by ∼50% this century under business-as-usual carbon emissions, but there is considerable variation among climate models. Some predict a near tripling of QRA events by the end of the century, while others predict a potential decrease. Models with amplified Arctic warming yield the most pronounced increase in QRA events. The projections are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the nature of changes in radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosols over the next century. One implication of our findings is that a reduction in midlatitude aerosol loading could actually lead to Arctic de-amplification this century, ameliorating potential increases in persistent extreme weather events.
- ItemGold-DNA nanosunflowers for efficient gene silencing with controllable transformation(Washington, DC [u.a.] : Assoc., 2019) Huo, Shuaidong; Gong, Ningqiang; Jiang, Ying; Chen, Fei; Guo, Hongbo; Gan, Yaling; Wang, Zhisen; Herrmann, Andreas; Liang, Xing-JieThe development of an efficient delivery system for enhanced and controlled gene interference–based therapeutics is still facing great challenges. Fortunately, the flourishing field of nanotechnology provides more effective strategies for nucleic acid delivery. Here, the triplex-forming oligonucleotide sequence and its complementary strand were used to mediate self-assembly of ultrasmall gold nanoparticles. The obtained sunflower-like nanostructures exhibited strong near-infrared (NIR) absorption and photothermal conversion ability. Upon NIR irradiation, the large-sized nanostructure could disassemble and generate ultrasmall nanoparticles modified with c-myc oncogene silencing sequence, which could directly target the cell nucleus. Moreover, the controlled gene silencing effect could be realized by synergistically controlling the preincubation time with the self-assembled nanostructure (in vitro and in vivo) and NIR irradiation time point. This study provides a new approach for constructing more efficient and tailorable nanocarriers for gene interference applications
- ItemDrought losses in China might double between the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming(Washington, DC : NAS, 2018) Su, Buda; Huang, Jinlong; Fischer, Thomas; Wang, Yanjun; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Zhai, Jianqing; Sun, Hemin; Wang, Anqian; Zeng, Xiaofan; Wang, Guojie; Tao, Hui; Gemmer, Marco; Li, Xiucang; Jiang, TongWe project drought losses in China under global temperature increase of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C, based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), a cluster analysis method, and “intensity-loss rate” function. In contrast to earlier studies, to project the drought losses, we predict the regional gross domestic product under shared socioeconomic pathways instead of using a static socioeconomic scenario. We identify increasing precipitation and evapotranspiration pattern for the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming above the preindustrial at 2020–2039 and 2040–2059, respectively. With increasing drought intensity and areal coverage across China, drought losses will soar. The estimated loss in a sustainable development pathway at the 1.5 °C warming level increases 10-fold in comparison with the reference period 1986–2005 and nearly threefold relative to the interval 2006–2015. However, limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 °C can reduce the annual drought losses in China by several tens of billions of US dollars, compared with the 2.0 °C warming.
- ItemThe Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison phase 1 simulation dataset(London : Nature Publ. Group, 2019) Müller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Kelly, David; Arneth, Almut; Balkovic, Juraj; Ciais, Philippe; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Hoek, Steven; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Jones, Curtis D.; Khabarov, Nikolay; Lawrence, Peter; Liu, Wenfeng; Olin, Stefan; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Reddy, Ashwan; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C.; Sakurai, Gen; Schmid, Erwin; Skalsky, Rastislav; Wang, Xuhui; de Wit, Allard; Yang, HongThe Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) phase 1 dataset of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) provides an unprecedentedly large dataset of crop model simulations covering the global ice-free land surface. The dataset consists of annual data fields at a spatial resolution of 0.5 arc-degree longitude and latitude. Fourteen crop modeling groups provided output for up to 11 historical input datasets spanning 1901 to 2012, and for up to three different management harmonization levels. Each group submitted data for up to 15 different crops and for up to 14 output variables. All simulations were conducted for purely rainfed and near-perfectly irrigated conditions on all land areas irrespective of whether the crop or irrigation system is currently used there. With the publication of the GGCMI phase 1 dataset we aim to promote further analyses and understanding of crop model performance, potential relationships between productivity and environmental impacts, and insights on how to further improve global gridded crop model frameworks. We describe dataset characteristics and individual model setup narratives. © 2019, The Author(s).
- ItemCollocated observations of cloud condensation nuclei, particle size distributions, and chemical composition(London : Nature Publ. Group, 2017) Schmale, Julia; Henning, Silvia; Henzing, Bas; Keskinen, Helmi; Sellegri, Karine; Ovadnevaite, Jurgita; Bougiatioti, Aikaterini; Kalivitis, Nikos; Stavroulas, Iasonas; Jefferson, Anne; Park, Minsu; Schlag, Patrick; Kristensson, Adam; Iwamoto, Yoko; Pringle, Kirsty; Reddington, Carly; Aalto, Pasi; Äijälä, Mikko; Baltensperger, Urs; Bialek, Jakub; Birmili, Wolfram; Bukowiecki, Nicolas; Ehn, Mikael; Fjæraa, Ann Mari; Fiebig, Markus; Frank, Göran; Fröhlich, Roman; Frumau, Arnoud; Furuya, Masaki; Hammer, Emanuel; Heikkinen, Liine; Herrmann, Erik; Holzinger, Rupert; Hyono, Hiroyuki; Kanakidou, Maria; Kiendler-Scharr, Astrid; Kinouchi, Kento; Kos, Gerard; Kulmala, Markku; Mihalopoulos, Nikolaos; Motos, Ghislain; Nenes, Athanasios; O’Dowd, Colin; Paramonov, Mikhail; Petäjä, Tuukka; Picard, David; Poulain, Laurent; Prévôt, André Stephan Henry; Slowik, Jay; Sonntag, Andre; Swietlicki, Erik; Svenningsson, Birgitta; Tsurumaru, Hiroshi; Wiedensohler, Alfred; Wittbom, Cerina; Ogren, John A.; Matsuki, Atsushi; Yum, Seong Soo; Myhre, Cathrine Lund; Carslaw, Ken; Stratmann, Frank; Gysel, MartinCloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentrations alongside with submicrometer particle number size distributions and particle chemical composition have been measured at atmospheric observatories of the Aerosols, Clouds, and Trace gases Research InfraStructure (ACTRIS) as well as other international sites over multiple years. Here, harmonized data records from 11 observatories are summarized, spanning 98,677 instrument hours for CCN data, 157,880 for particle number size distributions, and 70,817 for chemical composition data. The observatories represent nine different environments, e.g., Arctic, Atlantic, Pacific and Mediterranean maritime, boreal forest, or high alpine atmospheric conditions. This is a unique collection of aerosol particle properties most relevant for studying aerosol-cloud interactions which constitute the largest uncertainty in anthropogenic radiative forcing of the climate. The dataset is appropriate for comprehensive aerosol characterization (e.g., closure studies of CCN), model-measurement intercomparison and satellite retrieval method evaluation, among others. Data have been acquired and processed following international recommendations for quality assurance and have undergone multiple stages of quality assessment.
- ItemSpatial variations in crop growing seasons pivotal to reproduce global fluctuations in maize and wheat yields(Washington, DC [u.a.] : Assoc., 2018) Jägermeyr, Jonas; Frieler, KatjaTesting our understanding of crop yield responses to weather fluctuations at global scale is notoriously hampered by limited information about underlying management conditions, such as cultivar selection or fertilizer application. Here, we demonstrate that accounting for observed spatial variations in growing seasons increases the variance in reported national maize and wheat yield anomalies that can be explained by process-based model simulations from 34 to 58% and 47 to 54% across the 10 most weather-sensitive main producers, respectively. For maize, the increase in explanatory power is similar to the increase achieved by accounting for water stress, as compared to simulations assuming perfect water supply in both rainfed and irrigated agriculture. Representing water availability constraints in irrigation is of second-order importance. We improve the model’s explanatory power by better representing crops’ exposure to observed weather conditions, without modifying the weather response itself. This growing season adjustment now allows for a close reproduction of heat wave and drought impacts on crop yields.