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- ItemAmbient carbon monoxide and daily mortality: a global time-series study in 337 cities(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2021) Chen, Kai; Breitner, Susanne; Wolf, Kathrin; Stafoggia, Massimo; Sera, Francesco; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M.; Guo, Yuming; Tong, Shilu; Lavigne, Eric; Matus, Patricia; Valdés, Nicolás; Kan, Haidong; Jaakkola, Jouni J. K.; Ryti, Niilo R. I.; Huber, Veronika; Scortichini, Matteo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Nunes, Baltazar; Madureira, Joana; Holobâcă, Iulian Horia; Fratianni, Simona; Kim, Ho; Lee, Whanhee; Tobias, Aurelio; Íñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Christofer; Ragettli, Martina S.; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Chen, Bing-Yu; Li, Shanshan; Milojevic, Ai; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Bell, Michelle L.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Schneider, AlexandraBackground Epidemiological evidence on short-term association between ambient carbon monoxide (CO) and mortality is inconclusive and limited to single cities, regions, or countries. Generalisation of results from previous studies is hindered by potential publication bias and different modelling approaches. We therefore assessed the association between short-term exposure to ambient CO and daily mortality in a multicity, multicountry setting. Methods We collected daily data on air pollution, meteorology, and total mortality from 337 cities in 18 countries or regions, covering various periods from 1979 to 2016. All included cities had at least 2 years of both CO and mortality data. We estimated city-specific associations using confounder-adjusted generalised additive models with a quasi-Poisson distribution, and then pooled the estimates, accounting for their statistical uncertainty, using a random-effects multilevel meta-analytical model. We also assessed the overall shape of the exposure–response curve and evaluated the possibility of a threshold below which health is not affected. Findings Overall, a 1 mg/m3 increase in the average CO concentration of the previous day was associated with a 0·91% (95% CI 0·32–1·50) increase in daily total mortality. The pooled exposure–response curve showed a continuously elevated mortality risk with increasing CO concentrations, suggesting no threshold. The exposure–response curve was steeper at daily CO levels lower than 1 mg/m3, indicating greater risk of mortality per increment in CO exposure, and persisted at daily concentrations as low as 0·6 mg/m3 or less. The association remained similar after adjustment for ozone but was attenuated after adjustment for particulate matter or sulphur dioxide, or even reduced to null after adjustment for nitrogen dioxide. Interpretation This international study is by far the largest epidemiological investigation on short-term CO-related mortality. We found significant associations between ambient CO and daily mortality, even at levels well below current air quality guidelines. Further studies are warranted to disentangle its independent effect from other traffic-related pollutants.
- ItemChanges in black carbon emissions over Europe due to COVID-19 lockdowns(Katlenburg-Lindau : European Geosciences Union, 2021) Evangeliou, Nikolaos; Platt, Stephen M.; Eckhardt, Sabine; Lund Myhre, Cathrine; Laj, Paolo; Alados-Arboledas, Lucas; Backman, John; Brem, Benjamin T.; Fiebig, Markus; Flentje, Harald; Marinoni, Angela; Pandolfi, Marco; Yus-Dìez, Jesus; Prats, Natalia; Putaud, Jean P.; Sellegri, Karine; Sorribas, Mar; Eleftheriadis, Konstantinos; Vratolis, Stergios; Wiedensohler, Alfred; Stohl, AndreasFollowing the emergence of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) responsible for COVID-19 in December 2019 in Wuhan (China) and its spread to the rest of the world, the World Health Organization declared a global pandemic in March 2020. Without effective treatment in the initial pandemic phase, social distancing and mandatory quarantines were introduced as the only available preventative measure. In contrast to the detrimental societal impacts, air quality improved in all countries in which strict lockdowns were applied, due to lower pollutant emissions. Here we investigate the effects of the COVID-19 lockdowns in Europe on ambient black carbon (BC), which affects climate and damages health, using in situ observations from 17 European stations in a Bayesian inversion framework. BC emissions declined by 23 kt in Europe (20 % in Italy, 40 % in Germany, 34 % in Spain, 22 % in France) during lockdowns compared to the same period in the previous 5 years, which is partially attributed to COVID-19 measures. BC temporal variation in the countries enduring the most drastic restrictions showed the most distinct lockdown impacts. Increased particle light absorption in the beginning of the lockdown, confirmed by assimilated satellite and remote sensing data, suggests residential combustion was the dominant BC source. Accordingly, in central and Eastern Europe, which experienced lower than average temperatures, BC was elevated compared to the previous 5 years. Nevertheless, an average decrease of 11 % was seen for the whole of Europe compared to the start of the lockdown period, with the highest peaks in France (42 %), Germany (21 %), UK (13 %), Spain (11 %) and Italy (8 %). Such a decrease was not seen in the previous years, which also confirms the impact of COVID-19 on the European emissions of BC.
- ItemAir pollution trapping in the Dresden Basin from gray-zone scale urban modeling(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2023) Weger, Michael; Heinold, BerndThe microscale variability of urban air pollution is essentially driven by the interaction between meteorology and urban topography, which remains challenging to represent spatially accurately and computationally efficiently in urban dispersion models. Natural topography can additionally exert a considerable amplifying effect on urban background pollution, depending on atmospheric stability. This requires an equally important representation in models, as even subtle terrain-height variations can enforce characteristic local flow regimes. In this model study, the effects of urban and natural topography on the local winds and air pollution dispersion in the Dresden Basin in the Eastern German Elbe valley are investigated. A new, efficient urban microscale model is used within a multiscale air quality modeling framework. The simulations that consider real meteorological and emission conditions focus on two periods in late winter and early summer, respectively, as well as on black carbon (BC), a key air pollutant mainly emitted from motorized traffic. As a complement to the commonly used mass concentrations, the particle age content (age concentration) is simulated. This concept, which was originally developed to study hydrological reservoir flows in a Eulerian framework, is adapted here for the first time for atmospheric boundary-layer modeling. The approach is used to identify stagnant or recirculating orographic air flows and resulting air pollution trapping. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is applied to the simulation results to attribute the air pollution modes to specific weather patterns and quantify their significance. Air quality monitoring data for the region are used for model evaluation. The model results show a strong sensitivity to atmospheric conditions, but generally confirm increased BC levels in Dresden due to the valley location. The horizontal variability of mass concentrations is dominated by the patterns of traffic emissions, which overlay potential orography-driven pollutant accumulations. Therefore, an assessment of the orographic impact on air pollution is usually inconclusive. However, using the age-concentration metric, which filters out direct emission effects, previously undetected spatial patterns are discovered that are largely modulated by the surface orography. The comparison with a dispersion simulation assuming spatially homogeneous emissions also proves the robustness of the orographic flow information contained in the age-concentration distribution and shows it to be a suitable metric for assessing orographic air pollution trapping. The simulation analysis indicates several air quality hotspots on the southwestern slopes of the Dresden Basin and in the southern side valley, the Döhlen Basin, depending on the prevailing wind direction.
- ItemDecreasing trends of particle number and black carbon mass concentrations at 16 observational sites in Germany from 2009 to 2018(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2020) Sun, Jia; Birmili, Wolfram; Hermann, Markus; Tuch, Thomas; Weinhold, Kay; Merkel, Maik; Rasch, Fabian; Müller, Thomas; Schladitz, Alexander; Bastian, Susanne; Löschau, Gunter; Cyrys, Josef; Gu, Jianwei; Flentje, Harald; Briel, Björn; Asbach, Christoph; Kaminski, Heinz; Ries, Ludwig; Sohmer, Ralf; Gerwig, Holger; Wirtz, Klaus; Meinhardt, Frank; Schwerin, Andreas; Bath, Olaf; Ma, Nan; Wiedensohler, AlfredAnthropogenic emissions are dominant contributors to air pollution. Consequently, mitigation policies have been attempted since the 1990s in Europe to reduce pollution by anthropogenic emissions. To evaluate the effectiveness of these mitigation policies, the German Ultrafine Aerosol Network (GUAN) was established in 2008, focusing on black carbon (BC) and sub-micrometre aerosol particles. In this study, long-term trends of atmospheric particle number concentrations (PNCs) and equivalent BC (eBC) mass concentration over a 10-year period (2009-2018) were determined for 16 GUAN sites ranging from roadside to high Alpine environments. Overall, statistically significant decreasing trends are found for most of these parameters and environments in Germany. The annual relative slope of eBC mass concentration varies between-13.1% and-1.7% per year. The slopes of the PNCs vary from-17.2% to-1.7 %,-7.8% to-1.1 %, and-11.1% to-1.2% per year for 10-30, 30-200, and 200-800 nm size ranges, respectively. The reductions in various anthropogenic emissions are found to be the dominant factors responsible for the decreasing trends of eBC mass concentration and PNCs. The diurnal and seasonal variations in the trends clearly show the effects of the mitigation policies for road transport and residential emissions. The influences of other factors such as air masses, precipitation, and temperature were also examined and found to be less important or negligible. This study proves that a combination of emission mitigation policies can effectively improve the air quality on large spatial scales. It also suggests that a long-term aerosol measurement network at multi-type sites is an efficient and necessary tool for evaluating emission mitigation policies. © 2020 Author(s).
- ItemNucleation of jet engine oil vapours is a large source of aviation-related ultrafine particles(London : Springer Nature, 2022) Ungeheuer, Florian; Caudillo, Lucía; Ditas, Florian; Simon, Mario; van Pinxteren, Dominik; Kılıç, Doğuşhan; Rose, Diana; Jacobi, Stefan; Kürten, Andreas; Curtius, Joachim; Vogel, Alexander L.Large airports are a major source of ultrafine particles, which spread across densely populated residential areas, affecting air quality and human health. Jet engine lubrication oils are detectable in aviation-related ultrafine particles, however, their role in particle formation and growth remains unclear. Here we show the volatility and new-particle-formation ability of a common synthetic jet oil, and the quantified oil fraction in ambient ultrafine particles downwind of Frankfurt International Airport, Germany. We find that the oil mass fraction is largest in the smallest particles (10-18 nm) with 21% on average. Combining ambient particle-phase concentration and volatility of the jet oil compounds, we determine a lower-limit saturation ratio larger than 1 × 105 for ultra-low volatility organic compounds. This indicates that the oil is an efficient nucleation agent. Our results demonstrate that jet oil nucleation is an important mechanism that can explain the abundant observations of high number concentrations of non-refractory ultrafine particles near airports.