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- ItemApplication of TXRF in monitoring trace metals in particulate matter and cloud water(Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2020) Fomba, Khanneh Wadinga; Deabji, Nabil; Barcha, Sayf El Islam; Ouchen, Ibrahim; Elbaramoussi, El Mehdi; El Moursli, Rajaa Cherkaoui; Harnafi, Mimoun; El Hajjaji, Souad; Mellouki, Abdelwahid; Herrmann, HartmutTrace metals in ambient particulate matter and cloud are considered key elements of atmospheric processes as they affect air quality, environmental ecosystems, and cloud formation. However, they are often available at trace concentrations in these media such that their analysis requires high-precision and sensitive techniques. In this study, different analytical methods were applied to quantify trace metals in particulate matter (PM) samples collected on quartz and polycarbonate filters as well as cloud water, using the Total reflection X-Ray Fluorescence (TXRF) technique. These methods considered the measurement of filter samples directly without and with chemical pretreatment. Direct measurements involved the analysis of PM samples collected on polycarbonate filters and cloud water samples after they are brought onto TXRF carrier substrates. The chemical treatment method involved the assessment of different acid digestion procedures on PM sampled on quartz filters. The solutions applied were reverse aqua regia, nitric acid, and a combination of nitric acid and hydrogen peroxide. The effect of cold-plasma treatment of samples on polycarbonate filters before TXRF measurements was also investigated. Digestion with the reverse aqua regia solution provided lower blanks and higher recovery in comparison to other tested procedures. The detection limits of the elements ranged from 0.3 to 44 ng cm−2. Ca, K, Zn, and Fe showed the highest detection limits of 44, 35, 6, and 1 ng cm−2, while As and Se had the lowest of 0.3 and 0.8 ng cm−2, respectively. The method showed higher recovery for most trace metals when applied to commercially available reference materials and field samples. TXRF measurements showed good agreement with results obtained from ion chromatography measurements for elements such as Ca and K. Cold-plasma treatment did not significantly lead to an increase in the detected concentration, and the results were element specific. Baking of the quartz filters prior to sampling showed a reduction of more than 20 % of the filter blanks for elements such as V, Sr, Mn, Zn, and Sb. The methods were applied successfully on ambient particulate matter and cloud water samples collected from the Atlas Mohammed V station in Morocco and the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory. The obtained concentrations were within the range reported using different techniques from similar remote and background regions elsewhere, especially for elements of anthropogenic origins such as V, Pb, and Zn with concentrations of up to 10, 19, and 28 ng m−3, respectively. Enrichment factor analysis indicated that crustal matter dominated the abundance of most of the elements, while anthropogenic activities also contributed to the abundance of elements such as Sb, Se, and Pb. The results confirm that TXRF is a useful complementary sensitive technique for trace metal analysis of particulate matter in the microgram range as well as in cloud water droplets.
- ItemChanges in black carbon emissions over Europe due to COVID-19 lockdowns(Katlenburg-Lindau : European Geosciences Union, 2021) Evangeliou, Nikolaos; Platt, Stephen M.; Eckhardt, Sabine; Lund Myhre, Cathrine; Laj, Paolo; Alados-Arboledas, Lucas; Backman, John; Brem, Benjamin T.; Fiebig, Markus; Flentje, Harald; Marinoni, Angela; Pandolfi, Marco; Yus-Dìez, Jesus; Prats, Natalia; Putaud, Jean P.; Sellegri, Karine; Sorribas, Mar; Eleftheriadis, Konstantinos; Vratolis, Stergios; Wiedensohler, Alfred; Stohl, AndreasFollowing the emergence of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) responsible for COVID-19 in December 2019 in Wuhan (China) and its spread to the rest of the world, the World Health Organization declared a global pandemic in March 2020. Without effective treatment in the initial pandemic phase, social distancing and mandatory quarantines were introduced as the only available preventative measure. In contrast to the detrimental societal impacts, air quality improved in all countries in which strict lockdowns were applied, due to lower pollutant emissions. Here we investigate the effects of the COVID-19 lockdowns in Europe on ambient black carbon (BC), which affects climate and damages health, using in situ observations from 17 European stations in a Bayesian inversion framework. BC emissions declined by 23 kt in Europe (20 % in Italy, 40 % in Germany, 34 % in Spain, 22 % in France) during lockdowns compared to the same period in the previous 5 years, which is partially attributed to COVID-19 measures. BC temporal variation in the countries enduring the most drastic restrictions showed the most distinct lockdown impacts. Increased particle light absorption in the beginning of the lockdown, confirmed by assimilated satellite and remote sensing data, suggests residential combustion was the dominant BC source. Accordingly, in central and Eastern Europe, which experienced lower than average temperatures, BC was elevated compared to the previous 5 years. Nevertheless, an average decrease of 11 % was seen for the whole of Europe compared to the start of the lockdown period, with the highest peaks in France (42 %), Germany (21 %), UK (13 %), Spain (11 %) and Italy (8 %). Such a decrease was not seen in the previous years, which also confirms the impact of COVID-19 on the European emissions of BC.
- ItemClimate and air quality impacts due to mitigation of non-methane near-term climate forcers(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2020) Allen, Robert J.; Turnock, Steven; Nabat, Pierre; Neubauer, David; Lohmann, Ulrike; Olivié, Dirk; Oshima, Naga; Michou, Martine; Wu, Tongwen; Zhang, Jie; Takemura, Toshihiko; Schulz, Michael; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Bauer, Susanne E.; Emmons, Louisa; Horowitz, Larry; Naik, Vaishali; van Noije, Twan; Bergman, Tommi; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Zanis, Prodromos; Tegen, Ina; Westervelt, Daniel M.; Le Sager, Philippe; Good, Peter; Shim, Sungbo; O’Connor, Fiona; Akritidis, Dimitris; Georgoulias, Aristeidis K.; Deushi, Makoto; Sentman, Lori T.; John, Jasmin G.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Collins, William J.It is important to understand how future environmental policies will impact both climate change and air pollution. Although targeting near-term climate forcers (NTCFs), defined here as aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and precursor gases, should improve air quality, NTCF reductions will also impact climate. Prior assessments of the impact of NTCF mitigation on air quality and climate have been limited. This is related to the idealized nature of some prior studies, simplified treatment of aerosols and chemically reactive gases, as well as a lack of a sufficiently large number of models to quantify model diversity and robust responses. Here, we quantify the 2015-2055 climate and air quality effects of non-methane NTCFs using nine state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model simulations conducted for the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). Simulations are driven by two future scenarios featuring similar increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs) but with weak (SSP3-7.0) versus strong (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) levels of air quality control measures. As SSP3-7.0 lacks climate policy and has the highest levels of NTCFs, our results (e.g., surface warming) represent an upper bound. Unsurprisingly, we find significant improvements in air quality under NTCF mitigation (strong versus weak air quality controls). Surface fine particulate matter (PM2:5) and ozone (O3) decrease by 2:20:32 ugm3 and 4:60:88 ppb, respectively (changes quoted here are for the entire 2015-2055 time period; uncertainty represents the 95% confidence interval), over global land surfaces, with larger reductions in some regions including south and southeast Asia. Non-methane NTCF mitigation, however, leads to additional climate change due to the removal of aerosol which causes a net warming effect, including global mean surface temperature and precipitation increases of 0:250:12K and 0:030:012mmd1, respectively. Similarly, increases in extreme weather indices, including the hottest and wettest days, also occur. Regionally, the largest warming and wetting occurs over Asia, including central and north Asia (0:660:20K and 0:030:02mmd1), south Asia (0:470:16K and 0:170:09mmd1), and east Asia (0:460:20K and 0:150:06mmd1). Relatively large warming and wetting of the Arctic also occur at 0:590:36K and 0:040:02mmd1, respectively. Similar surface warming occurs in model simulations with aerosol-only mitigation, implying weak cooling due to ozone reductions. Our findings suggest that future policies that aggressively target non-methane NTCF reductions will improve air quality but will lead to additional surface warming, particularly in Asia and the Arctic. Policies that address other NTCFs including methane, as well as carbon dioxide emissions, must also be adopted to meet climate mitigation goals. © Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
- ItemAir pollution trapping in the Dresden Basin from gray-zone scale urban modeling(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2023) Weger, Michael; Heinold, BerndThe microscale variability of urban air pollution is essentially driven by the interaction between meteorology and urban topography, which remains challenging to represent spatially accurately and computationally efficiently in urban dispersion models. Natural topography can additionally exert a considerable amplifying effect on urban background pollution, depending on atmospheric stability. This requires an equally important representation in models, as even subtle terrain-height variations can enforce characteristic local flow regimes. In this model study, the effects of urban and natural topography on the local winds and air pollution dispersion in the Dresden Basin in the Eastern German Elbe valley are investigated. A new, efficient urban microscale model is used within a multiscale air quality modeling framework. The simulations that consider real meteorological and emission conditions focus on two periods in late winter and early summer, respectively, as well as on black carbon (BC), a key air pollutant mainly emitted from motorized traffic. As a complement to the commonly used mass concentrations, the particle age content (age concentration) is simulated. This concept, which was originally developed to study hydrological reservoir flows in a Eulerian framework, is adapted here for the first time for atmospheric boundary-layer modeling. The approach is used to identify stagnant or recirculating orographic air flows and resulting air pollution trapping. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is applied to the simulation results to attribute the air pollution modes to specific weather patterns and quantify their significance. Air quality monitoring data for the region are used for model evaluation. The model results show a strong sensitivity to atmospheric conditions, but generally confirm increased BC levels in Dresden due to the valley location. The horizontal variability of mass concentrations is dominated by the patterns of traffic emissions, which overlay potential orography-driven pollutant accumulations. Therefore, an assessment of the orographic impact on air pollution is usually inconclusive. However, using the age-concentration metric, which filters out direct emission effects, previously undetected spatial patterns are discovered that are largely modulated by the surface orography. The comparison with a dispersion simulation assuming spatially homogeneous emissions also proves the robustness of the orographic flow information contained in the age-concentration distribution and shows it to be a suitable metric for assessing orographic air pollution trapping. The simulation analysis indicates several air quality hotspots on the southwestern slopes of the Dresden Basin and in the southern side valley, the Döhlen Basin, depending on the prevailing wind direction.
- ItemThe impact of biomass burning and aqueous-phase processing on air quality: A multi-year source apportionment study in the Po Valley, Italy(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2020) Paglione, Marco; Gilardoni, Stefania; Rinaldi, Matteo; Decesari, Stefano; Zanca, Nicola; Sandrini, Silvia; Giulianelli, Lara; Bacco, Dimitri; Ferrari, Silvia; Poluzzi, Vanes; Scotto, Fabiana; Trentini, Arianna; Poulain, Laurent; Herrmann, Hartmut; Wiedensohler, Alfred; Canonaco, Francesco; Prévôt, André S.H.; Massoli, Paola; Carbone, Claudio; Facchini, Maria Cristina; Fuzzi, SandroThe Po Valley (Italy) is a well-known air quality hotspot characterized by particulate matter (PM) levels well above the limit set by the European Air Quality Directive and by the World Health Organization, especially during the colder season. In the framework of Emilia-Romagna regional project "Supersito", the southern Po Valley submicron aerosol chemical composition was characterized by means of high-resolution aerosol mass spectroscopy (HR-AMS) with the specific aim of organic aerosol (OA) characterization and source apportionment. Eight intensive observation periods (IOPs) were carried out over 4 years (from 2011 to 2014) at two different sites (Bologna, BO, urban background, and San Pietro Capofiume, SPC, rural background), to characterize the spatial variability and seasonality of the OA sources, with a special focus on the cold season. On the multi-year basis of the study, the AMS observations show that OA accounts for averages of 45 ± 8 % (ranging from 33 % to 58 %) and 46 ± 7 % (ranging from 36 % to 50 %) of the total non-refractory submicron particle mass (PM1-NR) at the urban and rural sites, respectively. Primary organic aerosol (POA) comprises biomass burning (23±13 % of OA) and fossil fuel (12±7 %) contributions with a marked seasonality in concentration. As expected, the biomass burning contribution to POA is more significant at the rural site (urban / rural concentration ratio of 0.67), but it is also an important source of POA at the urban site during the cold season, with contributions ranging from 14 % to 38 % of the total OA mass. Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) contributes to OA mass to a much larger extent than POA at both sites throughout the year (69 ± 16 % and 83 ± 16 % at the urban and rural sites, respectively), with important implications for public health. Within the secondary fraction of OA, the measurements highlight the importance of biomass burning aging products during the cold season, even at the urban background site. This biomass burning SOA fraction represents 14 %-44 % of the total OA mass in the cold season, indicating that in this region a major contribution of combustion sources to PM mass is mediated by environmental conditions and atmospheric reactivity. © 2020 Author(s).
- ItemAmbient carbon monoxide and daily mortality: a global time-series study in 337 cities(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2021) Chen, Kai; Breitner, Susanne; Wolf, Kathrin; Stafoggia, Massimo; Sera, Francesco; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M.; Guo, Yuming; Tong, Shilu; Lavigne, Eric; Matus, Patricia; Valdés, Nicolás; Kan, Haidong; Jaakkola, Jouni J. K.; Ryti, Niilo R. I.; Huber, Veronika; Scortichini, Matteo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Nunes, Baltazar; Madureira, Joana; Holobâcă, Iulian Horia; Fratianni, Simona; Kim, Ho; Lee, Whanhee; Tobias, Aurelio; Íñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Christofer; Ragettli, Martina S.; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Chen, Bing-Yu; Li, Shanshan; Milojevic, Ai; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Bell, Michelle L.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Schneider, AlexandraBackground Epidemiological evidence on short-term association between ambient carbon monoxide (CO) and mortality is inconclusive and limited to single cities, regions, or countries. Generalisation of results from previous studies is hindered by potential publication bias and different modelling approaches. We therefore assessed the association between short-term exposure to ambient CO and daily mortality in a multicity, multicountry setting. Methods We collected daily data on air pollution, meteorology, and total mortality from 337 cities in 18 countries or regions, covering various periods from 1979 to 2016. All included cities had at least 2 years of both CO and mortality data. We estimated city-specific associations using confounder-adjusted generalised additive models with a quasi-Poisson distribution, and then pooled the estimates, accounting for their statistical uncertainty, using a random-effects multilevel meta-analytical model. We also assessed the overall shape of the exposure–response curve and evaluated the possibility of a threshold below which health is not affected. Findings Overall, a 1 mg/m3 increase in the average CO concentration of the previous day was associated with a 0·91% (95% CI 0·32–1·50) increase in daily total mortality. The pooled exposure–response curve showed a continuously elevated mortality risk with increasing CO concentrations, suggesting no threshold. The exposure–response curve was steeper at daily CO levels lower than 1 mg/m3, indicating greater risk of mortality per increment in CO exposure, and persisted at daily concentrations as low as 0·6 mg/m3 or less. The association remained similar after adjustment for ozone but was attenuated after adjustment for particulate matter or sulphur dioxide, or even reduced to null after adjustment for nitrogen dioxide. Interpretation This international study is by far the largest epidemiological investigation on short-term CO-related mortality. We found significant associations between ambient CO and daily mortality, even at levels well below current air quality guidelines. Further studies are warranted to disentangle its independent effect from other traffic-related pollutants.
- ItemShort term associations of ambient nitrogen dioxide with daily total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality: multilocation analysis in 398 cities(London : BMJ Publ. Group, 2021) Meng, Xia; Liu, Cong; Chen, Renjie; Sera, Francesco; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Milojevic, Ai; Guo, Yuming; Tong, Shilu; Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Lavigne, Eric; Correa, Patricia Matus; Ortega, Nicolas Valdes; Osorio, Samuel; Garcia, null; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Orru, Hans; Maasikmets, Marek; Jaakkola, Jouni J. K.; Ryti, Niilo; Huber, Veronika; Schneider, Alexandra; Katsouyanni, Klea; Analitis, Antonis; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Ng, Chris Fook Sheng; Nunes, Baltazar; Teixeira, João Paulo; Holobaca, Iulian Horia; Fratianni, Simona; Kim, Ho; Tobias, Aurelio; Íñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Christofer; Ragettli, Martina S.; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Pan, Shih-Chun; Li, Shanshan; Bell, Michelle L.; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Wu, Tangchun; Gasparrini, Antonio; Kan, HaidongObjective To evaluate the short term associations between nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries/regions worldwide, using a uniform analytical protocol. Design Two stage, time series approach, with overdispersed generalised linear models and multilevel meta-analysis. Setting 398 cities in 22 low to high income countries/regions. Main outcome measures Daily deaths from total (62.8 million), cardiovascular (19.7 million), and respiratory (5.5 million) causes between 1973 and 2018. Results On average, a 10 μg/m3 increase in NO2 concentration on lag 1 day (previous day) was associated with 0.46% (95% confidence interval 0.36% to 0.57%), 0.37% (0.22% to 0.51%), and 0.47% (0.21% to 0.72%) increases in total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. These associations remained robust after adjusting for co-pollutants (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 μm or ≤2.5 μm (PM10 and PM2.5, respectively), ozone, sulfur dioxide, and carbon monoxide). The pooled concentration-response curves for all three causes were almost linear without discernible thresholds. The proportion of deaths attributable to NO2 concentration above the counterfactual zero level was 1.23% (95% confidence interval 0.96% to 1.51%) across the 398 cities. Conclusions This multilocation study provides key evidence on the independent and linear associations between short term exposure to NO2 and increased risk of total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, suggesting that health benefits would be achieved by tightening the guidelines and regulatory limits of NO2.
- ItemPopulation ageing and deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 pollution: a global analysis of economic cost(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2021) Yin, Hao; Brauer, Michael; Zhang, Junfeng (Jim); Cai, Wenjia; Navrud, Ståle; Burnett, Richard; Howard, Courtney; Deng, Zhu; Kammen, Daniel M.; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Chen, Kai; Kan, Haidong; Chen, Zhan-Ming; Chen, Bin; Zhang, Ning; Mi, Zhifu; Coffman, D'Maris; Cohen, Aaron J.; Guan, Dabo; Zhang, Qiang; Gong, Peng; Liu, ZhuBackground: The health impacts of ambient air pollution impose large costs on society. Although all people are exposed to air pollution, the older population (ie, those aged ≥60 years) tends to be disproportionally affected. As a result, there is growing concern about the health impacts of air pollution as many countries undergo rapid population ageing. We investigated the spatial and temporal variation in the economic cost of deaths attributable to ambient air pollution and its interaction with population ageing from 2000 to 2016 at global and regional levels. Methods: In this global analysis, we developed an age-adjusted measure of the value of a statistical life-year (VSLY) to estimate the economic cost of deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 pollution using Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 data and country-level socioeconomic information. First, we estimated the global age-specific and cause-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) attributable to PM2·5 pollution using the global exposure mortality model and global estimates of exposure at 0·1° × 0·1° (about 11 km × 11 km at the equator) resolution. Second, for each year between 2000 and 2016, we translated the YLLs within each age group into a health-related cost using a country-specific, age-adjusted measure of VSLY. Third, we decomposed the major driving factors that contributed to the temporal change in health costs related to PM2·5. Finally, we did a sensitivity test to analyse the variability of the estimated health costs to four alternative valuation measures. We identified the uncertainty intervals (UIs) from 1000 draws of the parameters and concentration–response functions by age, cause, country, and year. All economic values are reported in 2011 purchasing power parity-adjusted US dollars. All simulations were done with R, version 3.6.0. Findings: Globally, in 2016, PM2·5 was estimated to have caused 8·42 million (95% UI 6·50–10·52) attributable deaths, which was associated with 163·68 million (116·03–219·44) YLLs. In 2016, the global economic cost of deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 pollution for the older population was US$2·40 trillion (1·89–2·93) accounting for 59% (59–60) of the cost for the total population ($4·09 trillion [3·19–5·05]). The economic cost per capita for the older population was $2739 (2160–3345) in 2016, which was 10 times that of the younger population (ie, those aged <60 years). By assessing the factors that contributed to economic costs, we found that increases in these factors changed the total economic cost by 77% for gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, 21% for population ageing, 16% for population growth, −41% for age-specific mortality, and −0·4% for PM2·5 exposure. Interpretation: The economic cost of ambient PM2·5 borne by the older population almost doubled between 2000 and 2016, driven primarily by GDP growth, population ageing, and population growth. Compared with younger people, air pollution leads to disproportionately higher health costs among older people, even after accounting for their relatively shorter life expectancy and increased disability. As the world's population is ageing, the disproportionate health cost attributable to ambient PM2·5 pollution potentially widens the health inequities for older people. Countries with severe air pollution and rapid ageing rates need to take immediate actions to improve air quality. In addition, strategies aimed at enhancing health-care services, especially targeting the older population, could be beneficial for reducing the health costs of ambient air pollution. Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China, China Postdoctoral Science Foundation, and Qiushi Foundation.
- ItemThe shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500(Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2020) Meinshausen, Malte; Nicholls, Zebedee R. J.; Lewis, Jared; Gidden, Matthew J.; Vogel, Elisabeth; Freund, Mandy; Beyerle, Urs; Gessner, Claudia; Nauels, Alexander; Bauer, Nico; Canadell, Josep G.; Daniel, John S.; John, Andrew; Krummel, Paul B.; Luderer, Gunnar; Meinshausen, Nicolai; Montzka, Stephen A.; Rayner, Peter J.; Reimann, Stefan; Smith, Steven J.; van den Berg, Marten; Velders, Guus J. M.; Vollmer, Martin K.; Wang, Ray H. J.Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic emissions for the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents a different future socio-economic projection and political environment. Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios – using the reduced-complexity climate–carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO2 concentrations by 2100 range from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the fraction of non-CO2 emissions. By 2150, CO2 concentrations in the lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario projects CO2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO2 in the total radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse gases increases from 66 % for the present day to roughly 68 % to 85 % by the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation, we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the March–April–May (MAM) season provide a regional warming in higher northern latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound (∼5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies' projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a “hockey-stick” upwards shape. The SSP concentration time series derived in this study provide a harmonized set of input assumptions for long-term climate science analysis; they also provide an indication of the wide set of futures that societal developments and policy implementations can lead to – ranging from multiple degrees of future warming on the one side to approximately 1.5 ∘C warming on the other.
- ItemOn the application and grid-size sensitivity of the urban dispersion model CAIRDIO v2.0 under real city weather conditions(Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2022) Weger, Michael; Baars, Holger; Gebauer, Henriette; Merkel, Maik; Wiedensohler, Alfred; Heinold, BerndThere is a gap between the need for city-wide air-quality simulations considering the intra-urban variability and mircoscale dispersion features and the computational capacities that conventional urban microscale models require. This gap can be bridged by targeting model applications on the gray zone situated between the mesoscale and large-eddy scale. The urban dispersion model CAIRDIO is a new contribution to the class of computational-fluid dynamics models operating in this scale range. It uses a diffuse-obstacle boundary method to represent buildings as physical obstacles at gray-zone resolutions in the order of tens of meters. The main objective of this approach is to find an acceptable compromise between computationally inexpensive grid sizes for spatially comprehensive applications and the required accuracy in the description of building and boundary-layer effects. In this paper, CAIRDIO is applied on the simulation of black carbon and particulate matter dispersion for an entire mid-size city using a uniform horizontal grid spacing of 40gm. For model evaluation, measurements from five operational air monitoring stations representative for the urban background and high-traffic roads are used. The comparison also includes the mesoscale host simulation, which provides the boundary conditions. The measurements show a dominant influence of the mixing layer evolution at background sites, and therefore both the mesoscale and large-eddy simulation (LES) results are in good agreement with the observed air pollution levels. In contrast, at the high-traffic sites the proximity to emissions and the interactions with the building environment lead to a significantly amplified diurnal variability in pollutant concentrations. These urban road conditions can only be reasonably well represented by CAIRDIO while the meosocale simulation indiscriminately reproduces a typical urban-background profile, resulting in a large positive model bias. Remaining model discrepancies are further addressed by a grid-spacing sensitivity study using offline-nested refined domains. The results show that modeled peak concentrations within street canyons can be further improved by decreasing the horizontal grid spacing down to 10gm, but not beyond. Obviously, the default grid spacing of 40gm is too coarse to represent the specific environment within narrow street canyons. The accuracy gains from the grid refinements are still only modest compared to the remaining model error, which to a large extent can be attributed to uncertainties in the emissions. Finally, the study shows that the proposed gray-scale modeling is a promising downscaling approach for urban air-quality applications. The results, however, also show that aspects other than the actual resolution of flow patterns and numerical effects can determine the simulations at the urban microscale.