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- ItemClimate and air quality impacts due to mitigation of non-methane near-term climate forcers(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2020) Allen, Robert J.; Turnock, Steven; Nabat, Pierre; Neubauer, David; Lohmann, Ulrike; Olivié, Dirk; Oshima, Naga; Michou, Martine; Wu, Tongwen; Zhang, Jie; Takemura, Toshihiko; Schulz, Michael; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Bauer, Susanne E.; Emmons, Louisa; Horowitz, Larry; Naik, Vaishali; van Noije, Twan; Bergman, Tommi; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Zanis, Prodromos; Tegen, Ina; Westervelt, Daniel M.; Le Sager, Philippe; Good, Peter; Shim, Sungbo; O’Connor, Fiona; Akritidis, Dimitris; Georgoulias, Aristeidis K.; Deushi, Makoto; Sentman, Lori T.; John, Jasmin G.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Collins, William J.It is important to understand how future environmental policies will impact both climate change and air pollution. Although targeting near-term climate forcers (NTCFs), defined here as aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and precursor gases, should improve air quality, NTCF reductions will also impact climate. Prior assessments of the impact of NTCF mitigation on air quality and climate have been limited. This is related to the idealized nature of some prior studies, simplified treatment of aerosols and chemically reactive gases, as well as a lack of a sufficiently large number of models to quantify model diversity and robust responses. Here, we quantify the 2015-2055 climate and air quality effects of non-methane NTCFs using nine state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model simulations conducted for the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). Simulations are driven by two future scenarios featuring similar increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs) but with weak (SSP3-7.0) versus strong (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) levels of air quality control measures. As SSP3-7.0 lacks climate policy and has the highest levels of NTCFs, our results (e.g., surface warming) represent an upper bound. Unsurprisingly, we find significant improvements in air quality under NTCF mitigation (strong versus weak air quality controls). Surface fine particulate matter (PM2:5) and ozone (O3) decrease by 2:20:32 ugm3 and 4:60:88 ppb, respectively (changes quoted here are for the entire 2015-2055 time period; uncertainty represents the 95% confidence interval), over global land surfaces, with larger reductions in some regions including south and southeast Asia. Non-methane NTCF mitigation, however, leads to additional climate change due to the removal of aerosol which causes a net warming effect, including global mean surface temperature and precipitation increases of 0:250:12K and 0:030:012mmd1, respectively. Similarly, increases in extreme weather indices, including the hottest and wettest days, also occur. Regionally, the largest warming and wetting occurs over Asia, including central and north Asia (0:660:20K and 0:030:02mmd1), south Asia (0:470:16K and 0:170:09mmd1), and east Asia (0:460:20K and 0:150:06mmd1). Relatively large warming and wetting of the Arctic also occur at 0:590:36K and 0:040:02mmd1, respectively. Similar surface warming occurs in model simulations with aerosol-only mitigation, implying weak cooling due to ozone reductions. Our findings suggest that future policies that aggressively target non-methane NTCF reductions will improve air quality but will lead to additional surface warming, particularly in Asia and the Arctic. Policies that address other NTCFs including methane, as well as carbon dioxide emissions, must also be adopted to meet climate mitigation goals. © Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
- ItemDecreasing trends of particle number and black carbon mass concentrations at 16 observational sites in Germany from 2009 to 2018(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2020) Sun, Jia; Birmili, Wolfram; Hermann, Markus; Tuch, Thomas; Weinhold, Kay; Merkel, Maik; Rasch, Fabian; Müller, Thomas; Schladitz, Alexander; Bastian, Susanne; Löschau, Gunter; Cyrys, Josef; Gu, Jianwei; Flentje, Harald; Briel, Björn; Asbach, Christoph; Kaminski, Heinz; Ries, Ludwig; Sohmer, Ralf; Gerwig, Holger; Wirtz, Klaus; Meinhardt, Frank; Schwerin, Andreas; Bath, Olaf; Ma, Nan; Wiedensohler, AlfredAnthropogenic emissions are dominant contributors to air pollution. Consequently, mitigation policies have been attempted since the 1990s in Europe to reduce pollution by anthropogenic emissions. To evaluate the effectiveness of these mitigation policies, the German Ultrafine Aerosol Network (GUAN) was established in 2008, focusing on black carbon (BC) and sub-micrometre aerosol particles. In this study, long-term trends of atmospheric particle number concentrations (PNCs) and equivalent BC (eBC) mass concentration over a 10-year period (2009-2018) were determined for 16 GUAN sites ranging from roadside to high Alpine environments. Overall, statistically significant decreasing trends are found for most of these parameters and environments in Germany. The annual relative slope of eBC mass concentration varies between-13.1% and-1.7% per year. The slopes of the PNCs vary from-17.2% to-1.7 %,-7.8% to-1.1 %, and-11.1% to-1.2% per year for 10-30, 30-200, and 200-800 nm size ranges, respectively. The reductions in various anthropogenic emissions are found to be the dominant factors responsible for the decreasing trends of eBC mass concentration and PNCs. The diurnal and seasonal variations in the trends clearly show the effects of the mitigation policies for road transport and residential emissions. The influences of other factors such as air masses, precipitation, and temperature were also examined and found to be less important or negligible. This study proves that a combination of emission mitigation policies can effectively improve the air quality on large spatial scales. It also suggests that a long-term aerosol measurement network at multi-type sites is an efficient and necessary tool for evaluating emission mitigation policies. © 2020 Author(s).