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- ItemTrend detection in river flow indices in Poland(Heidelberg : Springer, 2018) Piniewski, Mikołaj; Marcinkowski, Paweł; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.The issue of trend detection in long time series of river flow records is of vast theoretical interest and considerable practical relevance. Water management is based on the assumption of stationarity; hence, it is crucial to check whether taking this assumption is justified. The objective of this study is to analyse long-term trends in selected river flow indices in small- and medium-sized catchments with relatively unmodified flow regime (semi-natural catchments) in Poland. The examined indices describe annual and seasonal average conditions as well as annual extreme conditions—low and high flows. The special focus is on the spatial analysis of trends, carried out on a comprehensive, representative data set of flow gauges. The present paper is timely, as no spatially comprehensive studies (i.e. covering the entire Poland or its large parts) on trend detection in time series of river flow have been done in the recent 15 years or so. The results suggest that there is a strong random component in the river flow process, the changes are weak and the spatial pattern is complex. Yet, the results of trend detection in different indices of river flow in Poland show that there exists a spatial divide that seems to hold quite generally for various indices (annual, seasonal, as well as low and high flow). Decreases of river flow dominate in the northern part of the country and increases usually in the southern part. Stations in the central part show mostly ‘no trend’ results. However, the spatial gradient is apparent only for the data for the period 1981–2016 rather than for 1956–2016. It seems also that the magnitude of increases of river flow is generally lower than that of decreases.
- ItemChanges of snow cover in Poland(Heidelberg : Springer, 2017) Szwed, Małgorzata; Pin´skwar, Iwona; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Graczyk, Dariusz; Mezghani, AbdelkaderThe present paper examines variability of characteristics of snow cover (snow cover depth, number of days with snow cover and dates of beginning and end of snow cover) in Poland. The study makes use of a set of 43 long time series of observation records from the stations in Poland, from 1952 to 2013. To describe temporal changes in snow cover characteristics, the intervals of 1952–1990 and of 1991–2013 are compared and trends in analysed data are sought (e.g., using the Mann–Kendall test). Observed behaviour of time series of snow-related variables is complex and not easy to interpret, for instance because of the location of the research area in the zone of transitional moderate climate, where strong variability of climate events is one of the main attributes. A statistical link between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the snow cover depth, as well as the number of snow cover days is found.
- ItemWhat can we learn from the projections of changes of flow patterns? Results from Polish case studies(Heidelberg : Springer, 2017) Piniewski, Mikołaj; Meresa, Hadush Kidane; Romanowicz, Renata; Osuch, Marzena; Szczes´niak, Mateusz; Kardel, Ignacy; Okruszko, Tomasz; Mezghani, Abdelkader; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.River flow projections for two future time horizons and RCP 8.5 scenario, generated by two projects (CHASE-PL and CHIHE) in the Polish-Norwegian Research Programme, were compared. The projects employed different hydrological models over different spatial domains. The semi-distributed, process-based, SWAT model was used in the CHASE-PL project for the entire Vistula and Odra basins area, whilst the lumped, conceptual, HBV model was used in the CHIHE project for eight Polish catchments, for which the comparison study was made. Climate projections in both studies originated from the common EURO-CORDEX dataset, but they were different, e.g. due to different bias correction approaches. Increases in mean annual and seasonal flows were projected in both studies, yet the magnitudes of changes were largely different, in particular for the lowland catchments in the far future. The HBV-based increases were significantly higher in the latter case than the SWAT-based increases in all seasons except winter. Uncertainty in projections is high and creates a problem for practitioners.
- ItemClimatologies and long-term changes in mesospheric wind and wave measurements based on radar observations at high and mid latitudes(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2019) Wilhelm, S.; Stober, G.; Brown, P.We report on long-term observations of atmospheric parameters in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) made over the last 2 decades. Within this study, we show, based on meteor wind measurement, the long-term variability of winds, tides, and kinetic energy of planetary and gravity waves. These measurements were done between the years 2002 and 2018 for the high-latitude location of Andenes (69.3°N, 16°E) and the mid-latitude locations of Juliusruh (54.6°N, 13.4°E) and Tavistock (43.3°N, 80.8°W). While the climatologies for each location show a similar pattern, the locations differ strongly with respect to the altitude and season of several parameters. Our results show annual wind tendencies for Andenes which are toward the south and to the west, with changes of up to 3°m s-1 per decade, while the mid-latitude locations show smaller opposite tendencies to negligible changes. The diurnal tides show nearly no significant long-term changes, while changes for the semidiurnal tides differ regarding altitude. Andenes shows only during winter a tidal weakening above 90°km, while for the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR) an enhancement of the semidiurnal tides during the winter and a weakening during fall occur. Furthermore, the kinetic energy for planetary waves showed strong peak values during winters which also featured the occurrence of sudden stratospheric warming. The influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the winds and tides is presented. The amplitudes of the mean winds exhibit a significant amplitude response for the zonal component below 82°km during summer and from November to December between 84 and 95°km at Andenes and CMOR. The semidiurnal tides (SDTs) show a clear 11-year response at all locations, from October to November. © 2019 by ASME.
- ItemHigh-resolution vertical velocities and their power spectrum observed with the MAARSY radar – Part 1: frequency spectrum(Katlenburg, Lindau : Copernicus, 2018-4-3) Li, Qiang; Rapp, Markus; Stober, Gunter; Latteck, RalphThe Middle Atmosphere Alomar Radar System (MAARSY) installed at the island of Andøya has been run for continuous probing of atmospheric winds in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) region. In the current study, we present high-resolution wind measurements during the period between 2010 and 2013 with MAARSY. The spectral analysis applying the Lomb–Scargle periodogram method has been carried out to determine the frequency spectra of vertical wind velocity. From a total of 522 days of observations, the statistics of the spectral slope have been derived and show a dependence on the background wind conditions. It is a general feature that the observed spectra of vertical velocity during active periods (with wind velocity > 10 m s−1) are much steeper than during quiet periods (with wind velocity < 10 m s−1). The distribution of spectral slopes is roughly symmetric with a maximum at −5/3 during active periods, whereas a very asymmetric distribution with a maximum at around −1 is observed during quiet periods. The slope profiles along altitudes reveal a significant height dependence for both conditions, i.e., the spectra become shallower with increasing altitudes in the upper troposphere and maintain roughly a constant slope in the lower stratosphere. With both wind conditions considered together the general spectra are obtained and their slopes are compared with the background horizontal winds. The comparisons show that the observed spectra become steeper with increasing wind velocities under quiet conditions, approach a spectral slope of −5/3 at a wind velocity of 10 m s−1 and then roughly maintain this slope (−5/3) for even stronger winds. Our findings show an overall agreement with previous studies; furthermore, they provide a more complete climatology of frequency spectra of vertical wind velocities under different wind conditions.
- ItemLong-term studies of mesosphere and lower-thermosphere summer length definitions based on mean zonal wind features observed for more than one solar cycle at middle and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere(Katlenburg, Lindau : Copernicus, 2022) Jaen, Juliana; Renkwitz, Toralf; Chau, Jorge L.; He, Maosheng; Hoffmann, Peter; Yamazaki, Yosuke; Jacobi, Christoph; Tsutsumi, Masaki; Matthias, Vivien; Hall, ChrisSpecular meteor radars (SMRs) and partial reflection radars (PRRs) have been observing mesospheric winds for more than a solar cycle over Germany (g1/4g54g gN) and northern Norway (g1/4g69g gN). This work investigates the mesospheric mean zonal wind and the zonal mean geostrophic zonal wind from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) over these two regions between 2004 and 2020. Our study focuses on the summer when strong planetary waves are absent and the stratospheric and tropospheric conditions are relatively stable. We establish two definitions of the summer length according to the zonal wind reversals: (1) the mesosphere and lower-thermosphere summer length (MLT-SL) using SMR and PRR winds and (2) the mesosphere summer length (M-SL) using the PRR and MLS. Under both definitions, the summer begins around April and ends around middle September. The largest year-to-year variability is found in the summer beginning in both definitions, particularly at high latitudes, possibly due to the influence of the polar vortex. At high latitudes, the year 2004 has a longer summer length compared to the mean value for MLT-SL as well as 2012 for both definitions. The M-SL exhibits an increasing trend over the years, while MLT-SL does not have a well-defined trend. We explore a possible influence of solar activity as well as large-scale atmospheric influences (e.g., quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), major sudden stratospheric warming events). We complement our work with an extended time series of 31 years at middle latitudes using only PRR winds. In this case, the summer length shows a breakpoint, suggesting a non-uniform trend, and periods similar to those known for ENSO and QBO.
- ItemGreenhouse gas effects on the solar cycle response of water vapour and noctilucent clouds(Katlenburg, Lindau : Copernicus, 2023) Vellalassery, Ashique; Baumgarten, Gerd; Grygalashvyly, Mykhaylo; Lübken, Franz-JosefThe responses of water vapour (H2O) and noctilucent clouds (NLCs) to the solar cycle are studied using the Leibniz Institute for Middle Atmosphere (LIMA) model and the Mesospheric Ice Microphysics And tranSport (MIMAS) model. NLCs are sensitive to the solar cycle because their formation depends on background temperature and the H2O concentration. The solar cycle affects the H2O concentration in the upper mesosphere mainly in two ways: directly through the photolysis and, at the time and place of NLC formation, indirectly through temperature changes. We found that H2O concentration correlates positively with the temperature changes due to the solar cycle at altitudes above about 82 km, where NLCs form. The photolysis effect leads to an anti-correlation of H2O concentration and solar Lyman-α radiation, which gets even more pronounced at altitudes below ∼83 km when NLCs are present. We studied the H2O response to Lyman-α variability for the period 1992 to 2018, including the two most recent solar cycles. The amplitude of Lyman-α variation decreased by about 40 % in the period 2005 to 2018 compared to the preceding solar cycle, resulting in a lower H2O response in the late period. We investigated the effect of increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the H2O response throughout the solar cycle by performing model runs with and without increases in carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). The increase of methane and carbon dioxide amplifies the response of water vapour to the solar variability. Applying the geometry of satellite observations, we find a missing response when averaging over altitudes of 80 to 85 km, where H2O has a positive response and a negative response (depending on altitude), which largely cancel each other out. One main finding is that, during NLCs, the solar cycle response of H2O strongly depends on altitude.
- ItemLocal stratopause temperature variabilities and their embedding in the global context(Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2020) Eixmann, Ronald; Matthias, Vivien; Höffner, Josef; Baumgarten, Gerd; Gerding, MichaelThe stratopause is by definition the transition between the stratosphere and mesosphere. During winter the circulation at mid-latitudes and high latitudes in the stratosphere is mainly driven by quasi-stationary planetary waves (PWs), while the circulation in the mesosphere is mainly driven by gravity waves (GWs). The question arises of whether PWs or GWs dominate the variability of the stratopause. The most famous and dramatic variability of the middle atmosphere is a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) generated by PWs interacting with the polar vortex. A similar phenomenon but smaller in magnitude and more regional is stratopause temperature enhancements (STEs) initially observed by local measurements and generated by breaking PWs. Thus it seems that PWs dominate the variability of the stratopause. In this study we want to quantify to which extent quasi-stationary PWs contribute to the stratopause variability. To do that we combine local lidar observations at Kühlungsborn (54∘ N, 11∘ E) and Andenes (69∘ N, 16∘ E) with global MERRA-2 reanalysis data bringing the local variability of the stratopause into the global context. Therefore we compare the temperature time series at Kühlungsborn and Andenes at 2 hPa, the altitude where STEs maximize, with characteristics (amplitude and phase) of PWs with wave numbers 1, 2 and 3. We found that for Kühlungsborn and Andenes 98 % of the local day-to-day variability of the stratopause can be explained by the variability of PWs with wave number 1, 2 and 3. Thus, the winter stratopause day-to-day variability is highly dominated by the variability of PWs.
- ItemAssessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland(Warsaw : De Gruyter Open, 2018) Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Piniewski, Mikołaj; Mezghani, Abdelkader; Okruszko, Tomasz; Pińskwar, Iwona; Kardel, Ignacy; Hov, Øystein; Szcześniak, Mateusz; Szwed, Małgorzata; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Marcinkowski, Paweł; Graczyk, Dariusz; Dobler, Andreas; Førland, Eirik J.; O’Keefe, Joanna; Choryński, Adam; Parding, Kajsa M.; Haugen, Jan ErikThe present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish–Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971–2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well.
- ItemA Method for Retrieving Stratospheric Aerosol Extinction and Particle Size from Ground-Based Rayleigh-Mie-Raman Lidar Observations(Basel, Switzerland : MDPI AG, 2020) Zalach, Jacob; von Savigny, Christian; Langenbach, Arvid; Baumgarten, Gerd; Lübken, Franz-Josef; Bourassa, AdamWe report on the retrieval of stratospheric aerosol particle size and extinction coefficient profiles from multi-color backscatter measurements with the Rayleigh-Mie-Raman lidar operated at the Arctic Lidar Observatory for Middle Atmosphere Research (ALOMAR) in northern Norway. The retrievals are based on a two-step approach. In a first step, the median radius of an assumed monomodal log-normal particle size distribution with fixed width is retrieved based on a color index formed from the measured backscatter ratios at the wavelengths of 1064nm and 532 nm. An intrinsic ambiguity of the retrieved aerosol size information is discussed. In a second step, this particle size information is used to convert the measured lidar backscatter ratio to aerosol extinction coefficients. The retrieval is currently based on monthly-averaged lidar measurements and the results for March 2013 are discussed. A sensitivity study is presented that allows for establishing an error budget for the aerosol retrievals. Assuming a monomodal log-normal aerosol particle size distribution with a geometric width of S = 1.5, median radii on the order of below 100 nm are retrieved. The median radii are found to generally decrease with increasing altitude. The retrieved aerosol extinction profiles are compared to observations with the OSIRIS (Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imager System) and the OMPS-LP (Ozone Mapping Profiling Suite Limb Profiler) satellite instruments in the 60° N to 80° N latitude band. The extinction profiles that were retrieved from the lidar measurements show good agreement with the observations of the two satellite instruments when taking the different wavelengths of the instruments into account. © 2020 by the authors.