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- ItemImpacts of meeting minimum access on critical earth systems amidst the Great Inequality(London : Springer Nature, 2022) Rammelt, Crelis F.; Gupta, Joyeeta; Liverman, Diana; Scholtens, Joeri; Ciobanu, Daniel; Abrams, Jesse F.; Bai, Xuemei; Gifford, Lauren; Gordon, Christopher; Hurlbert, Margot; Inoue, Cristina Y. A.; Jacobson, Lisa; Lade, Steven J.; Lenton, Timothy M.; McKay, David I. Armstrong; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Okereke, Chukwumerije; Otto, Ilona M.; Pereira, Laura M.; Prodani, Klaudia; Rockström, Johan; Stewart-Koster, Ben; Verburg, Peter H.; Zimm, CarolineThe Sustainable Development Goals aim to improve access to resources and services, reduce environmental degradation, eradicate poverty and reduce inequality. However, the magnitude of the environmental burden that would arise from meeting the needs of the poorest is under debate—especially when compared to much larger burdens from the rich. We show that the ‘Great Acceleration’ of human impacts was characterized by a ‘Great Inequality’ in using and damaging the environment. We then operationalize ‘just access’ to minimum energy, water, food and infrastructure. We show that achieving just access in 2018, with existing inequalities, technologies and behaviours, would have produced 2–26% additional impacts on the Earth’s natural systems of climate, water, land and nutrients—thus further crossing planetary boundaries. These hypothetical impacts, caused by about a third of humanity, equalled those caused by the wealthiest 1–4%. Technological and behavioural changes thus far, while important, did not deliver just access within a stable Earth system. Achieving these goals therefore calls for a radical redistribution of resources.
- ItemNucleation of jet engine oil vapours is a large source of aviation-related ultrafine particles(London : Springer Nature, 2022) Ungeheuer, Florian; Caudillo, LucÃa; Ditas, Florian; Simon, Mario; van Pinxteren, Dominik; Kılıç, DoÄŸuÅŸhan; Rose, Diana; Jacobi, Stefan; Kürten, Andreas; Curtius, Joachim; Vogel, Alexander L.Large airports are a major source of ultrafine particles, which spread across densely populated residential areas, affecting air quality and human health. Jet engine lubrication oils are detectable in aviation-related ultrafine particles, however, their role in particle formation and growth remains unclear. Here we show the volatility and new-particle-formation ability of a common synthetic jet oil, and the quantified oil fraction in ambient ultrafine particles downwind of Frankfurt International Airport, Germany. We find that the oil mass fraction is largest in the smallest particles (10-18 nm) with 21% on average. Combining ambient particle-phase concentration and volatility of the jet oil compounds, we determine a lower-limit saturation ratio larger than 1 × 105 for ultra-low volatility organic compounds. This indicates that the oil is an efficient nucleation agent. Our results demonstrate that jet oil nucleation is an important mechanism that can explain the abundant observations of high number concentrations of non-refractory ultrafine particles near airports.
- ItemGlobal perturbation of stratospheric water and aerosol burden by Hunga eruption(London : Springer Nature, 2022) Khaykin, Sergey; Podglajen, Aurelien; Ploeger, Felix; Grooß, Jens-Uwe; Tence, Florent; Bekki, Slimane; Khlopenkov, Konstantin; Bedka, Kristopher; Rieger, Landon; Baron, Alexandre; Godin-Beekmann, Sophie; Legras, Bernard; Sellitto, Pasquale; Sakai, Tetsu; Barnes, John; Uchino, Osamu; Morino, Isamu; Nagai, Tomohiro; Wing, Robin; Baumgarten, Gerd; Gerding, Michael; Duflot, Valentin; Payen, Guillaume; Jumelet, Julien; Querel, Richard; Liley, Ben; Bourassa, Adam; Clouser, Benjamin; Feofilov, Artem; Hauchecorne, Alain; Ravetta, FrançoisThe eruption of the submarine Hunga volcano in January 2022 was associated with a powerful blast that injected volcanic material to altitudes up to 58 km. From a combination of various types of satellite and ground-based observations supported by transport modeling, we show evidence for an unprecedented increase in the global stratospheric water mass by 13% relative to climatological levels, and a 5-fold increase of stratospheric aerosol load, the highest in the last three decades. Owing to the extreme injection altitude, the volcanic plume circumnavigated the Earth in only 1 week and dispersed nearly pole-to-pole in three months. The unique nature and magnitude of the global stratospheric perturbation by the Hunga eruption ranks it among the most remarkable climatic events in the modern observation era, with a range of potential long-lasting repercussions for stratospheric composition and climate.
- ItemThe different stratospheric influence on cold-extremes in Eurasia and North America(London : Springer Nature, 2018) Kretschmer, Marlene; Cohen, Judah; Matthias, Vivien; Runge, Jakob; Coumou, DimThe stratospheric polar vortex can influence the tropospheric circulation and thereby winter weather in the mid-latitudes. Weak vortex states, often associated with sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW), have been shown to increase the risk of cold-spells especially over Eurasia, but its role for North American winters is less clear. Using cluster analysis, we show that there are two dominant patterns of increased polar cap heights in the lower stratosphere. Both patterns represent a weak polar vortex but they are associated with different wave mechanisms and different regional tropospheric impacts. The first pattern is zonally symmetric and associated with absorbed upward-propagating wave activity, leading to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and cold-air outbreaks over northern Eurasia. This coupling mechanism is well-documented in the literature and is consistent with the downward migration of the northern annular mode (NAM). The second pattern is zonally asymmetric and linked to downward reflected planetary waves over Canada followed by a negative phase of the Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) and cold-spells in Central Canada and the Great Lakes region. Causal effect network (CEN) analyses confirm the atmospheric pathways associated with this asymmetric pattern. Moreover, our findings suggest the reflective mechanism to be sensitive to the exact region of upward wave-activity fluxes and to be state-dependent on the strength of the vortex. Identifying the causal pathways that operate on weekly to monthly timescales can pave the way for improved sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting of cold spells in the mid-latitudes.
- ItemThe Latin America Early Career Earth System Scientist Network (LAECESS): addressing present and future challenges of the upcoming generations of scientists in the region(London : Springer Nature, 2022) Yáñez-Serrano, Ana MarÃa; Aguilos, Maricar; Barbosa, Cybelli; Bolaño-Ortiz, Tomás Rafael; Carbone, Samara; DÃaz-López, Stephanie; Diez, Sebastián; Dominutti, Pamela; Engelhardt, Vanessa; Gomes Alves, Eliane; Pedraza, Jenniffer; Saturno, Jorge; Tzompa-Sosa, Zitely A.Early career (EC) Earth system scientists in the Latin America and the Caribbean region (LAC) have been facing several issues, such as limited funding opportunities, substandard scientific facilities, lack of security of tenure, and unrepresented groups equality issues. On top of this, the worsening regional environmental and climatic crises call for the need for this new generation of scientists to help to tackle these crises by increasing public awareness and research. Realizing the need to converge and step up in making a collective action to be a part of the solution, the Latin America Early Career Earth System Scientist Network (LAECESS) was created in 2016. LAECESS’s primary goals are to promote regional networking, foster integrated and interdisciplinary science, organize soft skills courses and workshops, and empower Latin American EC researchers. This article is an initial step towards letting the global science community grasp the current situation and hear the early career LAC science community’s perspectives. The paper also presents a series of future steps needed for better scientific and social development in the LAC region.
- ItemImpact of vertical air motions on ice formation rate in mixed-phase cloud layers(London : Springer Nature, 2019) Bühl, Johannes; Seifert, Patric; Engelmann, Ronny; Ansmann, AlbertThe relationship between vertical air velocity at cloud base and primary ice formation has been measured for shallow mixed-phase cloud layers (thickness <380 m) by means of ground-based cloud radar and Doppler lidar. For layers with a cloud-top temperature below −12 °C, an increase of vertical-velocity standard deviation from 0.1 to 1.0 m s−1 leads to an increase in the mass flux of ice water by two orders of magnitude. The cloud layers under study were selected in such a way that secondary ice-formation processes played a minor role, and primary ice formation was the dominant source of ice formation. Phenomenological parameterizations of the ice mass and the ice mass flux as functions of standard deviation of vertical air velocity are given.
- ItemAuthor Correction: Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey(London : Springer Nature, 2020) Horton, Benjamin P.; Khan, Nicole S.; Cahill, Niamh; Lee, Janice S. H.; Shaw, Timothy A.; Garner, Andra J.; Kem, Andrew C; Engelhart, Simon E.; Rahmstorf, StefanAn amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper. © 2020, The Author(s).
- ItemFormation and composition of the UTLS aerosol(London : Springer Nature, 2019) Martinsson, Bengt G.; Friberg, Johan; Sandvik, Oscar S.; Hermann, Markus; van Velthoven, Peter F. J.; Zahn, AndreasStratospheric aerosol has long been seen as a pure mixture of sulfuric acid and water. Recent measurements, however, found a considerable carbonaceous fraction extending at least 8 km into the stratosphere. This fraction affects the aerosol optical depth (AOD) and the radiative properties, and hence the radiative forcing and climate impact of the stratospheric aerosol. Here we present an investigation based on a decade (2005–2014) of airborne aerosol sampling at 9–12 km altitude in the tropics and the northern hemisphere (NH) aboard the IAGOS-CARIBIC passenger aircraft. We find that the chemical composition of tropospheric aerosol in the tropics differs markedly from that at NH midlatitudes, and, that the carbonaceous stratospheric aerosol is oxygen-poor compared to the tropospheric aerosol. Furthermore, the carbonaceous and sulfurous components of the aerosol in the lowermost stratosphere (LMS) show strong increases in concentration connected with springtime subsidence from overlying stratospheric layers. The LMS concentrations significantly exceed those in the troposphere, thus clearly indicating a stratospheric production of not only the well-established sulfurous aerosol, but also a considerable but less understood carbonaceous component. © 2019, The Author(s).
- ItemEstimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey(London : Springer Nature, 2020) Horton, Benjamin P.; Khan, Nicole S.; Cahill, Niamh; Lee, Janice S. H.; Shaw, Timothy A.; Garner, Andra J.; Kemp, Andrew C.; Engelhart, Simon E.; Rahmstorf, StefanSea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30–0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54–2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986–2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63–1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67–5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. © 2020, The Author(s).