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- ItemGlobal, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2021) Zhao, Qi; Guo, Yuming; Ye, Tingting; Gasparrini, Antonio; Tong, Shilu; Overcenco, Ala; Urban, Aleš; Schneider, Alexandra; Entezari, Alireza; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Zanobetti, Antonella; Analitis, Antonis; Zeka, Ariana; Tobias, Aurelio; Nunes, Baltazar; Alahmad, Barrak; Armstrong, Ben; Forsberg, Bertil; Pan, Shih-Chun; Íñiguez, Carmen; Ameling, Caroline; De la Cruz Valencia, César; Åström, Christofer; Houthuijs, Danny; Dung, Do Van; Royé, Dominic; Indermitte, Ene; Lavigne, Eric; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh; Acquaotta, Fiorella; de'Donato, Francesca; Di Ruscio, Francesco; Sera, Francesco; Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel; Kan, Haidong; Orru, Hans; Kim, Ho; Holobaca, Iulian-Horia; Kyselý, Jan; Madureira, Joana; Schwartz, Joel; Jaakkola, Jouni J. K.; Katsouyanni, Klea; Hurtado Diaz, Magali; Ragettli, Martina S.; Hashizume, Masahiro; Pascal, Mathilde; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, Micheline; Valdés Ortega, Nicolás; Ryti, Niilo; Scovronick, Noah; Michelozzi, Paola; Matus Correa, Patricia; Goodman, Patrick; Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario; Abrutzky, Rosana; Osorio, Samuel; Rao, Shilpa; Fratianni, Simona; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Colistro, Valentina; Huber, Veronika; Lee, Whanhee; Seposo, Xerxes; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue Leon; Bell, Michelle L.; Li, ShanshanBackground: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy was used. First, the temperature–mortality association was fitted for each location by use of a time-series regression. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was built between location-specific estimates and meta-predictors. Finally, the grid-specific temperature–mortality association between 2000 and 2019 was predicted by use of the fitted meta-regression and the grid-specific meta-predictors. Excess deaths due to non-optimal temperatures, the ratio between annual excess deaths and all deaths of a year (the excess death ratio), and the death rate per 100 000 residents were then calculated for each grid across the world. Grids were divided according to regional groupings of the UN Statistics Division. Findings: Globally, 5 083 173 deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4 087 967–5 965 520) were associated with non-optimal temperatures per year, accounting for 9·43% (95% eCI 7·58–11·07) of all deaths (8·52% [6·19–10·47] were cold-related and 0·91% [0·56–1·36] were heat-related). There were 74 temperature-related excess deaths per 100 000 residents (95% eCI 60–87). The mortality burden varied geographically. Of all excess deaths, 2 617 322 (51·49%) occurred in Asia. Eastern Europe had the highest heat-related excess death rate and Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest cold-related excess death rate. From 2000–03 to 2016–19, the global cold-related excess death ratio changed by −0·51 percentage points (95% eCI −0·61 to −0·42) and the global heat-related excess death ratio increased by 0·21 percentage points (0·13–0·31), leading to a net reduction in the overall ratio. The largest decline in overall excess death ratio occurred in South-eastern Asia, whereas excess death ratio fluctuated in Southern Asia and Europe. Interpretation: Non-optimal temperatures are associated with a substantial mortality burden, which varies spatiotemporally. Our findings will benefit international, national, and local communities in developing preparedness and prevention strategies to reduce weather-related impacts immediately and under climate change scenarios. Funding: Australian Research Council and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
- ItemThe feedback of midlatitude waves onto the Hadley cell in a simple general circulation model(Milton Park : Taylor & Francis, 1996) Becker, E.; Schmitz, G.; Geprägs, R.We present self-consistent comparisons of axissymmetric and 3-dimensional simulations of the tropospheric circulation under idealized physical conditions. These reveal a feedback of transient eddies onto the Hadley circulation which, first, strongly depends on equatorial heating and, second, is in case of realistic heating quite different from prescribed eddy forcing. A quantitative estimation for the eddy-induced mixing of vorticity into the poleward flow of the Hadley cell is given. The proposed relation is in accordance with observations. It is derived from the computational result that eddy momentum flux convergence is of the same order as the equatorward flux of relative vorticity generated by the Hadley circulation. Evaluation of the local budgets of sensible heat gives rise to a clear picture of how the poleward heat transports due to Hadley circulation and transient eddies interlock. This mechanism is found to be essential for an interpretation of the eddy feedback.
- ItemReview of Environmental Monitoring by Means of Radio Waves in the Polar Regions: From Atmosphere to Geospace(Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V, 2022) Alfonsi, Lucilla; Bergeot, Nicolas; Cilliers, Pierre J.; De Franceschi, Giorgiana; Baddeley, Lisa; Correia, Emilia; Di Mauro, Domenico; Enell, Carl-Fredrik; Engebretson, Mark; Ghoddousi-Fard, Reza; Häggström, Ingemar; Ham, Young-bae; Heygster, Georg; Jee, Geonhwa; Kero, Antti; Kosch, Michael; Kwon, Hyuck-Jin; Lee, Changsup; Lotz, Stefan; Macotela, Liliana; Marcucci, Maria Federica; Miloch, Wojciech J.; Morton, Y. Jade; Naoi, Takahiro; Negusini, Monia; Partamies, Noora; Petkov, Boyan H.; Pottiaux, Eric; Prikryl, Paul; Shreedevi, P.R.; Slapak, Rikard; Spogli, Luca; Stephenson, Judy; Triana-Gómez, Arantxa M.; Troshichev, Oleg A.; Van Malderen, Roeland; Weygand, James M.; Zou, ShashaThe Antarctic and Arctic regions are Earth's open windows to outer space. They provide unique opportunities for investigating the troposphere–thermosphere–ionosphere–plasmasphere system at high latitudes, which is not as well understood as the mid- and low-latitude regions mainly due to the paucity of experimental observations. In addition, different neutral and ionised atmospheric layers at high latitudes are much more variable compared to lower latitudes, and their variability is due to mechanisms not yet fully understood. Fortunately, in this new millennium the observing infrastructure in Antarctica and the Arctic has been growing, thus providing scientists with new opportunities to advance our knowledge on the polar atmosphere and geospace. This review shows that it is of paramount importance to perform integrated, multi-disciplinary research, making use of long-term multi-instrument observations combined with ad hoc measurement campaigns to improve our capability of investigating atmospheric dynamics in the polar regions from the troposphere up to the plasmasphere, as well as the coupling between atmospheric layers. Starting from the state of the art of understanding the polar atmosphere, our survey outlines the roadmap for enhancing scientific investigation of its physical mechanisms and dynamics through the full exploitation of the available infrastructures for radio-based environmental monitoring.
- ItemOn the upper tropospheric formation and occurrence of high and thin cirrus clouds during anticyclonic poleward Rossby wave breaking events(Milton Park : Taylor & Francis, 2010) Eixmann, Ronald; Peters, Dieter H.W.; Zülicke, Christoph; Gerding, Michael; Dörnbrack, AndreasGround-based lidar measurements and balloon soundings were employed to examine the dynamical link between anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking and cirrus clouds from 13 to 15 February 2006. For this event, an air mass with low Ertel’s potential vorticity appeared over Central Europe. In the tropopause region, this air mass was accompanied with both an area of extreme cold temperatures placed northeastward, and an area of high specific humidity, located southwestward. ECMWF analyses reveal a strong adiabatic northeastward and upward transport of water vapour within the warm conveyor belt on the western side of the ridge over Mecklenburg, Northern Germany. The backscatter lidar at K¨uhlungsborn (54.1◦N, 11.8◦E) clearly identified cirrus clouds at between 9 and 11.4 km height. In the tropopause region high-vertical resolution radiosoundings showed layers of subsaturated water vapour over ice but with a relative humidity over ice >80%. Over Northern Germany radiosondes indicated anticyclonically rotating winds in agreement with backward trajectories of ECMWF analyses in the upper troposphere, which were accompanied by a relatively strong increase of the tropopause height on 14 February. Based on ECMWF data the strong link between the large-scale structure, updraft and ice water content was shown.
- ItemInfluence of subtropical Rossby wave trains on planetary wave activity over Antarctica in September 2002(Stockholm : Stockholm University Press, 2015) Peters, Dieter H.W.; Vargin, PavelAt the beginning of September 2002, strong convection processes over south-eastern Indonesia and over south-eastern Africa have been observed. Due to the strong upper tropospheric divergent outflow, two Rossby wave trains (RWTs) were generated. Their south-eastward propagation was controlled by the mean background flow. These two wave trains are visible in observations. It is hypothesised that these wave trains cause enhanced planetary wave activity fluxes which are a result of an amplified planetary wave 2 in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere over Antarctica. Such a change of the planetary wave structure was diagnosed in September 2002, prior to the first observed major sudden stratospheric warming event on the Southern Hemisphere. A simplified version of GCM ECHAM4 is used to evaluate the hypothesis. Sensitivity experiments were performed for a mean background flow similar to September 2002. Furthermore, the wave maker approach was used to generate Rossby waves in the subtropical upper troposphere at two distinct locations which are corresponding to the observed regions of divergent outflow. As a main result, after about 2 weeks of model integration with wave maker forcing, we find two RWTs with a south-eastward propagation inducing a polar amplification of planetary wave 2 in the upper troposphere and lower/middle stratosphere. The poleward wave activity flux is enhanced in comparison to the control run without any wave maker forcing. The convergence of the Eliassen–Palm flux causes a 25% deceleration of zonal mean zonal wind in the model stratosphere but no wind reversal. Sensitivity runs support the robustness of these results. The obtained model results highlight the mechanism and confirm the hypothesis that enhanced planetary wave activity in austral polar region in 2002 is caused by enhanced subtropical forcing of two RWTs.
- ItemShort term association between ozone and mortality: global two stage time series study in 406 locations in 20 countries(London : BMJ Publ. Group, 2020) Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M.; Sera, Francesco; Liu, Cong; Armstrong, Ben; Milojevic, Ai; Guo, Yuming; Tong, Shilu; Lavigne, Eric; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Orru, Hans; Indermitte, Ene; Pascal, Mathilde; Huber, Veronika; Schneider, Alexandra; Katsouyanni, Klea; Samoli, Evangelia; Stafoggia, Massimo; Scortichini, Matteo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Ng, Chris Fook Sheng; Hurtado-Diaz, Magali; Cruz, Julio; Silva, Susana; Madureira, Joana; Scovronick, Noah; Garland, Rebecca M.; Kim, Ho; Tobias, Aurelio; Íñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Christofer; Ragettli, Martina S.; Röösli, Martin; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Chen, Bing-Yu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Bell, Michelle L.; Kan, Haidong; Gasparrini, AntonioObjective To assess short term mortality risks and excess mortality associated with exposure to ozone in several cities worldwide. Design Two stage time series analysis. Setting 406 cities in 20 countries, with overlapping periods between 1985 and 2015, collected from the database of Multi-City Multi-Country Collaborative Research Network. Population Deaths for all causes or for external causes only registered in each city within the study period. Main outcome measures Daily total mortality (all or non-external causes only). Results A total of 45 165 171 deaths were analysed in the 406 cities. On average, a 10 μg/m 3 increase in ozone during the current and previous day was associated with an overall relative risk of mortality of 1.0018 (95% confidence interval 1.0012 to 1.0024). Some heterogeneity was found across countries, with estimates ranging from greater than 1.0020 in the United Kingdom, South Africa, Estonia, and Canada to less than 1.0008 in Mexico and Spain. Short term excess mortality in association with exposure to ozone higher than maximum background levels (70 μg/m 3) was 0.26% (95% confidence interval 0.24% to 0.28%), corresponding to 8203 annual excess deaths (95% confidence interval 3525 to 12 840) across the 406 cities studied. The excess remained at 0.20% (0.18% to 0.22%) when restricting to days above the WHO guideline (100 μg/m 3), corresponding to 6262 annual excess deaths (1413 to 11 065). Above more lenient thresholds for air quality standards in Europe, America, and China, excess mortality was 0.14%, 0.09%, and 0.05%, respectively. Conclusions Results suggest that ozone related mortality could be potentially reduced under stricter air quality standards. These findings have relevance for the implementation of efficient clean air interventions and mitigation strategies designed within national and international climate policies. © Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to.
- ItemShort term associations of ambient nitrogen dioxide with daily total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality: multilocation analysis in 398 cities(London : BMJ Publ. Group, 2021) Meng, Xia; Liu, Cong; Chen, Renjie; Sera, Francesco; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Milojevic, Ai; Guo, Yuming; Tong, Shilu; Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Lavigne, Eric; Correa, Patricia Matus; Ortega, Nicolas Valdes; Osorio, Samuel; Garcia, null; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Orru, Hans; Maasikmets, Marek; Jaakkola, Jouni J. K.; Ryti, Niilo; Huber, Veronika; Schneider, Alexandra; Katsouyanni, Klea; Analitis, Antonis; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Ng, Chris Fook Sheng; Nunes, Baltazar; Teixeira, João Paulo; Holobaca, Iulian Horia; Fratianni, Simona; Kim, Ho; Tobias, Aurelio; Íñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Christofer; Ragettli, Martina S.; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Pan, Shih-Chun; Li, Shanshan; Bell, Michelle L.; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Wu, Tangchun; Gasparrini, Antonio; Kan, HaidongObjective To evaluate the short term associations between nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries/regions worldwide, using a uniform analytical protocol. Design Two stage, time series approach, with overdispersed generalised linear models and multilevel meta-analysis. Setting 398 cities in 22 low to high income countries/regions. Main outcome measures Daily deaths from total (62.8 million), cardiovascular (19.7 million), and respiratory (5.5 million) causes between 1973 and 2018. Results On average, a 10 μg/m3 increase in NO2 concentration on lag 1 day (previous day) was associated with 0.46% (95% confidence interval 0.36% to 0.57%), 0.37% (0.22% to 0.51%), and 0.47% (0.21% to 0.72%) increases in total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. These associations remained robust after adjusting for co-pollutants (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 μm or ≤2.5 μm (PM10 and PM2.5, respectively), ozone, sulfur dioxide, and carbon monoxide). The pooled concentration-response curves for all three causes were almost linear without discernible thresholds. The proportion of deaths attributable to NO2 concentration above the counterfactual zero level was 1.23% (95% confidence interval 0.96% to 1.51%) across the 398 cities. Conclusions This multilocation study provides key evidence on the independent and linear associations between short term exposure to NO2 and increased risk of total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, suggesting that health benefits would be achieved by tightening the guidelines and regulatory limits of NO2.
- ItemVery low ozone episodes due to polar vortex displacement(Milton Park : Taylor & Francis, 2000) James, P.M.; Peters, D.; Waugh, D.W.The large-scale ozone distribution over the northern hemisphere undergoes strong fluctuationseach winter on timescales of up to a few weeks. This is closely linked to changes in the stratosphericpolar vortex, whose shape, intensity and location vary with time. Elliptical diagnosticparameters provide an empirical description of the daily character of the polar vortex. Theseparameters are used as an objective measure to define two characteristic wintertime vortexdisplacements, towards northern Europe and Canada, respectively. The large-scale structuresin both the stratosphere and troposphere and the 3D ozone structures are determined for bothvortex displacement scenarios. A linear ozone transport model shows that the contribution ofhorizontal ozone advection dominates locally in the middle stratosphere. Nevertheless, thelargest contribution is due to vertical advection around the ozone layer maximum. The findingsare in agreement with an EOF analysis which reveals significant general modes of ozone variabilitylinked to polar vortex displacement and to phase-shifted large-scale tropospheric waves.When baroclinic waves travel through the regions of vortex-related ozone reduction, the combinedeffect is to produce transient synoptic-scale areas of exceptionally low ozone; namelydynamically induced strong ozone mini-holes.
- ItemLong-term lidar observations of polar stratospheric clouds at Esrange in northern Sweden(Milton Park : Taylor & Francis, 2005) Blum, U.; Fricke, K.H.; Müller, K.P.; Siebert, J.; Baumgarten, G.Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) play a key role in the depletion of polar ozone. The type of cloud and the length of time for which it exists are crucial for the amount of chlorine activation during the polar night. The Bonn University backscatter lidar at Esrange in northern Sweden (68◦N, 21◦E) is well equipped for long-term observation and classification of these clouds. Nearly continuous measurements through several winters are rare, in particular in wave-active regions like Esrange. Lidar measurements have been performed each winter since 1997—a total of more than 2000 h of observation time has been accumulated, including more than 300 h with PSCs. Analysis of this unique data set leads to a classification scheme with four different scattering characteristics which can be associated with four different cloud types: (1) supercooled ternary solution (STS), (2) nitric acid trihydrate (NAT), (3) ice and (4) mixtures of solid and liquid particles. The analysis of observations over seven winters gives an overview of the frequency of appearance of the individual PSC types. Most of the clouds contain layers of different PSC types. The analysis of these layers shows STS and mixed clouds to occur most frequently, with more than 39% and 37% of all PSC observations, respectively, whereas NAT (15%) and ice clouds (9%) are seen only rarely. The lidar is located close to the Scandinavian mountain ridge, which is a major source of orographically induced gravity waves that can rapidly cool the atmosphere below cloud formation temperatures. Comparing the individual existence temperature of the observed cloud type with the synoptic-scale temperature provided by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) gives information on the frequency of synoptically and wave-induced PSCs. Further, the analysis of ECMWF temperature and wind data gives an estimate of the transparency of the atmosphere to stationary gravity waves. During more than 80% of all PSC observations in synoptic-scale temperatures which were too warm the atmosphere was transparent for stationary gravity waves. Our measurements show that dynamically induced cooling is crucial for the existence of PSCs above Esrange. In particular ice PSCs are observed only in situations where there are gravity waves.
- ItemUtility of Hovmöller diagrams to diagnose Rossby wave trains(Abingdon : Taylor & Francis, 2011) Glatt, I.; Dörnbrack, A.; Jones, S.; Keller, J.; Martius, O.; Müller, A.; Peters, D.H.W.; Wirth, V.The study investigates and compares various methods that aim to diagnose Rossby wave trains with the help of Hovmöller diagrams. Three groups of methods are distinguished: The first group contains trough-and-ridge Hovmöller diagrams of the meridional wind; they provide full phase information, but differ in the method for latitudinal averaging or weighting. The second group aims to identify Rossby wave trains as a whole, discounting individual troughs and ridges. The third group contains diagnostics which focus on physical mechanisms during the different phases of a Rossby wave train life cycle; they include the analysis of eddy kinetic energy and methods for quantifying Rossby wave breaking. The different methods are analysed and systematically compared with each other in the framework of a two-month period in fall 2008. Each method more or less serves its designed purpose, but they all have their own strengths and weaknesses. Notable differences between the individual methods render an objective identification of a Rossby wave train somewhat elusive. Nevertheless, the combination of several techniques provides a rather comprehensive picture of the Rossby wave train life cycle, being broadly consistent with the expected behaviour from previous theoretical analysis.