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- ItemAssessment of climate change impacts on water resources in three representative ukrainian catchments using eco-hydrological modelling(Basel : MDPI AG, 2017) Didovets, I.; Lobanova, A.; Bronstert, A.; Snizhko, S.; Maule, C.F.; Krysanova, V.The information about climate change impact on river discharge is vitally important for planning adaptation measures. The future changes can affect different water-related sectors. The main goal of this study was to investigate the potential water resource changes in Ukraine, focusing on three mesoscale river catchments (Teteriv, UpperWestern Bug, and Samara) characteristic for different geographical zones. The catchment scale watershed model-Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM)-was setup, calibrated, and validated for the three catchments under consideration. A set of seven GCM-RCM (General Circulation Model-Regional Climate Model) coupled climate scenarios corresponding to RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and 8.5 were used to drive the hydrological catchment model. The climate projections, used in the study, were considered as three combinations of low, intermediate, and high end scenarios. Our results indicate the shifts in the seasonal distribution of runoff in all three catchments. The spring high flow occurs earlier as a result of temperature increases and earlier snowmelt. The fairly robust trend is an increase in river discharge in the winter season, and most of the scenarios show a potential decrease in river discharge in the spring.
- ItemClimate or land use? - Attribution of changes in river flooding in the Sahel zone(Basel : MDPI AG, 2015) Aich, V.; Liersch, S.; Vetter, T.; Andersson, J.C.M.; Müller, E.N.; Hattermann, F.F.
- ItemDischarge alterations of the Mures River, Romania under ensembles of future climate projections and sequential threats to aquatic ecosystem by the end of the century(Basel : MDPI AG, 2015) Lobanova, A.; Stagl, J.; Vetter, T.; Hattermann, F.
- ItemClimate change, agriculture, and economic development in Ethiopia(Basel : MDPI AG, 2018) Yalew, A.W.; Hirte, G.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Tscharaktschiew, S.Quantifying the economic effects of climate change is a crucial step for planning adaptation in developing countries. This study assesses the economy-wide and regional effects of climate change-induced productivity and labor supply shocks in Ethiopian agriculture. We pursue a structural approach that blends biophysical and economic models. We consider different crop yield projections and add a regionalization to the country-wide CGE results. The study shows, in the worst case scenario, the effects on country-wide GDP may add up to -8%. The effects on regional value-added GDP are uneven and range from -10% to +2.5%. However, plausible cost-free exogenous structural change scenarios in labor skills and marketing margins may offset about 20-30% of these general equilibrium effects. As such, the ongoing structural transformation in the country may underpin the resilience of the economy to climate change. This can be regarded as a co-benefit of structural change in the country. Nevertheless, given the role of the sector in the current economic structure and the potency of the projected biophysical impacts, adaptation in agriculture is imperative. Otherwise, climate change may make rural livelihoods unpredictable and strain the country's economic progress.
- ItemCharacterizing half-a-degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets(Hoboken, NJ : Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2017) James, R.; Washington, R.; Schleussner, C.-F.; Rogelj, J.; Conway, D.The Paris Agreement long-term global temperature goal refers to two global warming levels: well below 2°C and 1.5°C above preindustrial. Regional climate signals at specific global warming levels, and especially the differences between 1.5°C and 2°C, are not well constrained, however. In particular, methodological challenges related to the assessment of such differences have received limited attention. This article reviews alternative approaches for identifying regional climate signals associated with global temperature limits, and evaluates the extent to which they constitute a sound basis for impacts analysis. Four methods are outlined, including comparing data from different greenhouse gas scenarios, sub-selecting climate models based on global temperature response, pattern scaling, and extracting anomalies at the time of each global temperature increment. These methods have rarely been applied to compare 2°C with 1.5°C, but some demonstrate potential avenues for useful research. Nevertheless, there are methodological challenges associated with the use of existing climate model experiments, which are generally designed to model responses to different levels of greenhouse gas forcing, rather than to model climate responses to a specific level of forcing that targets a given level of global temperature change. Novel approaches may be required to address policy questions, in particular: to differentiate between half degree warming increments while accounting for different sources of uncertainty; to examine mechanisms of regional climate change including the potential for nonlinear responses; and to explore the relevance of time-lagged processes in the climate system and declining emissions, and the resulting sensitivity to alternative mitigation pathways. WIREs Clim Change 2017, 8:e457. doi: 10.1002/wcc.457. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.
- ItemClimate-driven or human-induced: Indicating severe water scarcity in the Moulouya river basin (Morocco)(Basel : MDPI AG, 2012) Tekken, V.; Kropp, J.P.Many agriculture-based economies are increasingly under stress from climate change and socio-economic pressures. The excessive exploitation of natural resources still represents the standard procedure to achieve socio-economic development. In the area of the Moulouya river basin, Morocco, natural water availability represents a key resource for all economic activities. Agriculture represents the most important sector, and frequently occurring water deficits are aggravated by climate change. On the basis of historical trends taken from CRU TS 2.1, this paper analyses the impact of climate change on the per capita water availability under inclusion of population trends. The Climatic Water Balance (CWB) shows a significant decrease for the winter period, causing adverse effects for the main agricultural season. Further, moisture losses due to increasing evapotranspiration rates indicate problems for the annual water budget and groundwater recharge. The per capita blue water availability falls below a minimum threshold of 500 m3 per year, denoting a high regional vulnerability to increasing water scarcity assuming a no-response scenario. Regional development focusing on the water-intense sectors of agriculture and tourism appears to be at risk. Institutional capacities and policies need to address the problem, and the prompt implementation of innovative water production and efficiency measures is recommended.
- ItemImpacts of climate change on the hydrological regime of the danube river and its tributaries using an ensemble of climate scenarios(Basel : MDPI AG, 2015) Stagl, J.C.; Hattermann, F.F.
- ItemImpacts of Climate Change on Riverine Ecosystems: Alterations of Ecologically Relevant Flow Dynamics in the Danube River and Its Major Tributaries(Basel : MDPI AG, 2016) Stagl, J.C.; Hattermann, F.F.
- ItemThe Towuti Drilling Project: paleoenvironments, biological evolution, andgeomicrobiology of a tropical Pacific lake(Sapporo : IODP, 2016) Russell, James M.; Bijaksana, Satria; Vogel, Hendrik; Melles, Martin; Kallmeyer, Jens; Ariztegui, Daniel; Crowe, Sean; Fajar, Silvia; Hafidz, Abdul; Haffner, Doug; Hasberg, Ascelina; Ivory, Sarah; Kelly, Christopher; King, John; Kirana, Kartika; Morlock, Marina; Noren, Anders; O'Grady, Ryan; Ordonez, Luis; Stevenson, Janelle; von Rintelen, Thomas; Vuillemin, Aurele; Watkinson, Ian; Wattrus, Nigel; Wicaksono, Satrio; Wonik, Thomas; Bauer, Kohen; Deino, Alan; Friese, André; Henny, Cynthia; Marwoto, Ristiyanti; Ngkoimani, La Ode; Nomosatryo, Sulung; Safiuddin, La Ode; Simister, Rachel; Tamuntuan, GeraldThe Towuti Drilling Project (TDP) is an international research program, whose goal is to understand long-term environmental and climatic change in the tropical western Pacific, the impacts of geological and environmental changes on the biological evolution of aquatic taxa, and the geomicrobiology and biogeochemistry of metal-rich, ultramafic-hosted lake sediments through the scientific drilling of Lake Towuti, southern Sulawesi, Indonesia. Lake Towuti is a large tectonic lake at the downstream end of the Malili lake system, a chain of five highly biodiverse lakes that are among the oldest lakes in Southeast Asia. In 2015 we carried out a scientific drilling program on Lake Towuti using the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) Deep Lakes Drilling System (DLDS). We recovered a total of ∼ 1018 m of core from 11 drilling sites with water depths ranging from 156 to 200 m. Recovery averaged 91.7 %, and the maximum drilling depth was 175 m below the lake floor, penetrating the entire sedimentary infill of the basin. Initial data from core and borehole logging indicate that these cores record the evolution of a highly dynamic tectonic and limnological system, with clear indications of orbital-scale climate variability during the mid- to late Pleistocene.
- ItemThe challenges of applying planetary boundaries as a basis for strategic decision-making in companies with global supply chains(Basel : MDPI AG, 2017) Clift, R.; Sim, S.; King, H.; Chenoweth, J.L.; Christie, I.; Clavreul, J.; Mueller, C.; Posthuma, L.; Boulay, A.-M.; Chaplin-Kramer, R.; Chatterton, J.; DeClerck, F.; Druckman, A.; France, C.; Franco, A.; Gerten, D.; Goedkoop, M.; Hauschild, M.Z.; Huijbregts, M.A.J.; Koellner, T.; Lambin, E.F.; Lee, J.; Mair, S.; Marshall, S.; McLachlan, M.S.; Milà i Canals, L.; Mitchell, C.; Price, E.; Rockström, J.; Suckling, J.; Murphy, R.The Planetary Boundaries (PB) framework represents a significant advance in specifying the ecological constraints on human development. However, to enable decision-makers in business and public policy to respect these constraints in strategic planning, the PB framework needs to be developed to generate practical tools. With this objective in mind, we analyse the recent literature and highlight three major scientific and technical challenges in operationalizing the PB approach in decision-making: first, identification of thresholds or boundaries with associated metrics for different geographical scales; second, the need to frame approaches to allocate fair shares in the 'safe operating space' bounded by the PBs across the value chain and; third, the need for international bodies to co-ordinate the implementation of the measures needed to respect the Planetary Boundaries. For the first two of these challenges, we consider how they might be addressed for four PBs: climate change, freshwater use, biosphere integrity and chemical pollution and other novel entities. Four key opportunities are identified: (1) development of a common system of metrics that can be applied consistently at and across different scales; (2) setting 'distance from boundary' measures that can be applied at different scales; (3) development of global, preferably open-source, databases and models; and (4) advancing understanding of the interactions between the different PBs. Addressing the scientific and technical challenges in operationalizing the planetary boundaries needs be complemented with progress in addressing the equity and ethical issues in allocating the safe operating space between companies and sectors.