Search Results
Human alterations of the terrestrial water cycle through land management
2008, Rost, S., Gerten, D., Heyder, U.
This study quantifies current and potential future changes in transpiration, evaporation, interception loss and river discharge in response to land use change, irrigation and climate change, by performing several distinct simulations within the consistent hydrology and biosphere modeling framework LPJmL (Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land). We distinguished two irrigation simulations: a water limited one in which irrigation was restricted by local renewable water resources (ILIM), and a potential one in which no such limitation was assumed but withdrawals from deep groundwater or remote rivers allowed (IPOT). We found that the effect of historical land use change as compared to potential natural vegetation was pronounced, including a reduction in interception loss and transpiration by 25.9% and 10.6%, respectively, whereas river discharge increased by 6.6% (climate conditions of 1991-2000). Furthermore, we estimated that about 1170km3yr-1 of irrigation water could be withdrawn from local renewable water resources (in ILIM), which resulted in a reduction of river discharge by 1.5%. However, up to 1660km3yr-1 of water withdrawals were required in addition under the assumption that optimal growth of irrigated crops was sustained (IPOT), which resulted in a slight net increase in global river discharge by 2.0% due to return flows. Under the HadCM3 A2 climate and emission scenario, climate change alone will decrease total evapotranspiration by 1.5% and river discharge by 0.9% in 2046-2055 compared to 1991-2000 average due to changes in precipitation patterns, a decrease in global precipitation amount, and the net effect of CO2 fertilization. A doubling of agricultural land in 2046-2055 compared to 1991-2000 average as proposed by the IMAGE land use change scenario will result in a decrease in total evapotranspiration by 2.5% and in an increase in river discharge by 3.9%. That is, the effects of land use change in the future will be comparable in magnitude to the effects of climate change in this particular scenario. On present irrigated areas future water withdrawal will increase especially in regions where climate changes towards warmer and dryer conditions will be pronounced.
Near-ubiquity of ice-edge blooms in the Arctic
2011, Perrette, M., Yool, A., Quartly, G.D., Popova, E.E.
Ice-edge blooms are significant features of Arctic primary production, yet have received relatively little attention. Here we combine satellite ocean colour and sea-ice data in a pan-Arctic study. Ice-edge blooms occur in all seasonally ice-covered areas and from spring to late summer, being observed in 77-89% of locations for which adequate data exist, and usually peaking within 20 days of ice retreat. They sometimes form long belts along the ice-edge (greater than 100 km), although smaller structures were also found. The bloom peak is on average more than 1 mg m-3, with major blooms more than 10 mg m -3, and is usually located close to the ice-edge, though not always. Some propagate behind the receding ice-edge over hundreds of kilometres and over several months, while others remain stationary. The strong connection between ice retreat and productivity suggests that the ongoing changes in Arctic sea-ice may have a significant impact on higher trophic levels and local fish stocks.
The Smithsonian solar constant data revisited: No evidence for a strong effect of solar activity in ground-based insolation data
2011, Feulner, G.
Apparent evidence for a strong signature of solar activity in ground-based insolation data was recently reported. In particular, a strong increase of the irradiance of the direct solar beam with sunspot number as well as a decline of the brightness of the solar aureole and the measured precipitable water content of the atmosphere with solar activity were presented. The latter effect was interpreted as evidence for cosmic-ray-induced aerosol formation. Here I show that these spurious results are due to a failure to correct for seasonal variations and the effects of volcanic eruptions and local pollution in the data. After correcting for these biases, neither the atmospheric water content nor the brightness of the solar aureole show any significant change with solar activity, and the variations of the solar-beam irradiance with sunspot number are in agreement with previous estimates. Hence there is no evidence for the influence of solar activity on the climate being stronger than currently thought.
Damage functions for climate-related hazards: Unification and uncertainty analysis
2016, Prahl, B.F., Rybski, D., Boettle, M., Kropp, J.P.
Small-scale mixing processes enhancing troposphere-to-stratosphere transport by pyro-cumulonimbus storms
2007, Luderer, G., Trentmann, J., Hungershöfer, K., Herzog, M., Fromm, M., Andreae, M.O.
Deep convection induced by large forest fires is an efficient mechanism for transport of aerosol particles and trace gases into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS). For many pyro-cumulonimbus clouds (pyroCbs) as well as other cases of severe convection without fire forcing, radiometric observations of cloud tops in the thermal infrared (IR) reveal characteristic structures, featuring a region of relatively high brightness temperatures (warm center) surrounded by a U-shaped region of low brightness temperatures. We performed a numerical simulation of a specific case study of pyroCb using a non-hydrostatic cloud resolving model with a two-moment cloud microphysics parameterization and a prognostic turbulence scheme. The model is able to reproduce the thermal IR structure as observed from satellite radiometry. Our findings establish a close link between the observed temperature pattern and small-scale mixing processes atop and downwind of the overshooting dome of the pyroCb. Such small-scale mixing processes are strongly enhanced by the formation and breaking of a stationary gravity wave induced by the overshoot. They are found to increase the stratospheric penetration of the smoke by up to almost 30 K and thus are of major significance for irreversible transport of forest fire smoke into the lower stratosphere.
Sensitivity of polar stratospheric ozone loss to uncertainties in chemical reaction kinetics
2009, Kawa, S.R., Stolarski, R.S., Newman, P.A., Douglass, A.R., Rex, M., Hofmann, D.J., Santee, M.L., Frieler, K.
The impact and significance of uncertainties in model calculations of stratospheric ozone loss resulting from known uncertainty in chemical kinetics parameters is evaluated in trajectory chemistry simulations for the Antarctic and Arctic polar vortices. The uncertainty in modeled ozone loss is derived from Monte Carlo scenario simulations varying the kinetic (reaction and photolysis rate) parameters within their estimated uncertainty bounds. Simulations of a typical winter/spring Antarctic vortex scenario and Match scenarios in the Arctic produce large uncertainty in ozone loss rates and integrated seasonal loss. The simulations clearly indicate that the dominant source of model uncertainty in polar ozone loss is uncertainty in the Cl2O 2 photolysis reaction, which arises from uncertainty in laboratory-measured molecular cross sections at atmospherically important wavelengths. This estimated uncertainty in JCl 2O2 from laboratory measurements seriously hinders our ability to model polar ozone loss within useful quantitative error limits. Atmospheric observations, however, suggest that the Cl2O2 photolysis uncertainty may be less than that derived from the lab data. Comparisons to Match, South Pole ozonesonde, and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) data all show that the nominal recommended rate simulations agree with data within uncertainties when the Cl2O2 photolysis error is reduced by a factor of two, in line with previous in situ ClOx measurements. Comparisons to simulations using recent cross sections from Pope et al. (2007) are outside the constrained error bounds in each case. Other reactions producing significant sensitivity in polar ozone loss include BrO + ClO and its branching ratios. These uncertainties challenge our confidence in modeling polar ozone depletion and projecting future changes in response to changing halogen emissions and climate. Further laboratory, theoretical, and possibly atmospheric studies are needed.
Multi-static spatial and angular studies of polar mesospheric summer echoes combining MAARSY and KAIRA
2018, Chau, J.L., McKay, D., Vierinen, J.P., La Hoz, C., Ulich, T., Lehtinen, M., Latteck, R.
Polar mesospheric summer echoes (PMSEs) have been long associated with noctilucent clouds (NLCs). For large ice particles sizes and relatively high ice densities, PMSEs at 3m Bragg wavelengths are known to be good tracers of the atmospheric wind dynamics and to be highly correlated with NLC occurrence. Combining the Middle Atmosphere ALOMAR Radar System (MAARSY) and the Kilpisjärvi Atmospheric Imaging Receiver Array (KAIRA), i.e., monostatic and bistatic observations, we show for the first time direct evidence of limited-volume PMSE structures drifting more than 90 km almost unchanged. These structures are shown to have horizontal widths of 5-15 km and are separated by 20-60 km, consistent with structures due to atmospheric waves previously observed in NLCs from the ground and from space. Given the lower sensitivity of KAIRA, the observed features are attributed to echoes from regions with high Schmidt numbers that provide a large radar cross section. The bistatic geometry allows us to determine an upper value for the angular sensitivity of PMSEs at meter scales. We find no evidence for strong aspect sensitivity for PMSEs, which is consistent with recent observations using radar imaging approaches. Our results indicate that multi-static allsky interferometric radar observations of PMSEs could be a powerful tool for studying mesospheric wind fields within large geographic areas. © Author(s) 2018.
Diurnal variation of midlatitudinal NO3 column abundance over table mountain facility, California
2011, Chen, C.M., Cageao, R.P., Lawrence, L., Stutz, J., Salawitch, R.J., Jourdain, L., Li, Q., Sander, S.P.
The column abundance of NO3 was measured over Table Mountain Facility, CA (34.4° 117.7° W) from May 2003 through September 2004, using lunar occultation near full moon with a grating spectrometer. The NO 3 column retrieval was performed with the differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) technique using both the 623 and 662 nm NO 3 absorption bands. Other spectral features such as Fraunhofer lines and absorption from water vapor and oxygen were removed using solar spectra obtained at different airmass factors. We observed a seasonal variation, with nocturnally averaged NO3 columns between 5-7 × 1013 molec cm-2 during October through March, and 5-22 × 10 13 molec cm-2 during April through September. A subset of the data, with diurnal variability vastly different from the temporal profile obtained from one-dimensional stratospheric model calculations, clearly has boundary layer contributions; this was confirmed by simultaneous long-path DOAS measurements. However, even the NO3 columns that did follow the modeled time evolution were often much larger than modeled stratospheric partial columns constrained by realistic temperatures and ozone concentrations. This discrepancy is attributed to substantial tropospheric NO3 in the free troposphere, which may have the same time dependence as stratospheric NO 3.
Solar and lunar tides in noctilucent clouds as determined by ground-based lidar
2018, Fiedler, J., Baumgarten, G.
Noctilucent clouds (NLCs) occur during summer from midlatitudes to high latitudes. They consist of nanometer-sized ice particles in an altitude range from 80 to 90 km and are sensitive to ambient temperature and water vapor content, which makes them a suitable tracer for variability on all timescales. The data set acquired by the ALOMAR Rayleigh-Mie-Raman (RMR) lidar covers 21 years and is investigated regarding tidal signatures in NLCs. For the first time solar and lunar tidal parameters in NLCs were determined simultaneously from the same data. Several NLC parameters are subject to persistent mean variations throughout the solar day as well as the lunar day. Variations with lunar time are generally smaller compared to variations with solar time. NLC occurrence frequency shows the most robust imprint of the lunar semidiurnal tide. Its amplitude is about 50 % of the solar semidiurnal tide, which is surprisingly large. Phase progressions of NLC occurrence frequency indicate upward propagating solar tides. Below 84 km altitude the corresponding vertical wavelengths are between 20 and 30 km. For the lunar semidiurnal tide phase progressions vary symmetrically with respect to the maximum of the NLC layer. © Author(s) 2018.
Global and regional effects of land-use change on climate in 21st century simulations with interactive carbon cycle
2014, Boysen, L.R., Brovkin, V., Arora, V.K., Cadule, P., De Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Kato, E., Pongratz, J., Gayler, V.
Biogeophysical (BGP) and biogeochemical (BGC) effects of land-use and land cover change (LULCC) are separated at the global and regional scales in new interactive CO2simulations for the 21st century. Results from four earth system models (ESMs) are analyzed for the future RCP8.5 scenario from simulations with and without land-use and land cover change (LULCC), contributing to the Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts (LUCID) project. Over the period 2006-2100, LULCC causes the atmospheric CO2concentration to increase by 12, 22, and 66 ppm in CanESM2, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR, respectively. Statistically significant changes in global near-surface temperature are found in three models with a BGC-induced global mean annual warming between 0.07 and 0.23 K. BGP-induced responses are simulated by three models in areas of intense LULCC of varying sign and magnitude (between g 0.47 and 0.10 K). Modifications of the land carbon pool by LULCC are disentangled in accordance with processes that can lead to increases and decreases in this carbon pool. Global land carbon losses due to LULCC are simulated by all models: 218, 57, 35 and 34 Gt C by MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CanESM2, respectively. On the contrary, the CO2-fertilization effect caused by elevated atmospheric CO2concentrations due to LULCC leads to a land carbon gain of 39 Gt C in MPI-ESM-LR and is almost negligible in the other models. A substantial part of the spread in models' responses to LULCC is attributed to the differences in implementation of LULCC (e.g., whether pastures or crops are simulated explicitly) and the simulation of specific processes. Simple idealized experiments with clear protocols for implementing LULCC in ESMs are needed to increase the understanding of model responses and the statistical significance of results, especially when analyzing the regional-scale impacts of LULCC.