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Start date: 2020 × End date: 2013 × Start date: 2013 × DDC: 550 × Subject: Computer simulation ×

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Now showing 1 - 5 of 5
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    Application of a model-based rainfall-runoff database as efficient tool for flood risk management
    (Chichester : John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2013) Brocca, L.; Liersch, S.; Melone, F.; Moramarco, T.; Volk, M.
    A framework for a comprehensive synthetic rainfall-runoff database was developed to study catchment response to a variety of rainfall events. The framework supports effective flood risk assessment and management and implements simple approaches. It consists of three flexible components, a rainfall generator, a continuous rainfallrunoff model, and a database management system. The system was developed and tested at two gauged river sections along the upper Tiber River (central Italy). One of the main questions was to investigate how simple such approaches can be applied without impairing the quality of the results. The rainfall-runoff model was used to simulate runoff on the basis of a large number of rainfall events. The resulting rainfallrunoff database stores pre-simulated events classified on the basis of the rainfall amount, initial wetness conditions and initial discharge. The real-time operational forecasts follow an analogue method that does not need new model simulations. However, the forecasts are based on the simulation results available in the rainfall-runoff database (for the specific class to which the forecast belongs). Therefore, the database can be used as an effective tool to assess possible streamflow scenarios assuming different rainfall volumes for the following days. The application to the study site shows that magnitudes of real flood events were appropriately captured by the database. Further work should be dedicated to introduce a component for taking account of the actual temporal distribution of rainfall events into the stochastic rainfall generator and to the use of different rainfall-runoff models to enhance the usability of the proposed procedure.
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    A vital link: Water and vegetation in the anthropocene
    (Chichester : John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2013) Gerten, D.
    This paper argues that the interplay of water, carbon and vegetation dynamics fundamentally links some global trends in the current and conceivable future Anthropocene, such as cropland expansion, freshwater use, and climate change and its impacts. Based on a review of recent literature including geographically explicit simulation studies with the process-based LPJmL global biosphere model, it demonstrates that the connectivity of water and vegetation dynamics is vital for water security, food security and (terrestrial) ecosystem dynamics alike. The water limitation of net primary production of both natural and agricultural plants - already pronounced in many regions - is shown to increase in many places under projected climate change, though this development is partially offset by water-saving direct CO2 effects. Natural vegetation can to some degree adapt dynamically to higher water limitation, but agricultural crops usually require some form of active management to overcome it - among them irrigation, soil conservation and eventually shifts of cropland to areas that are less water-limited due to more favourable climatic conditions. While crucial to secure food production for a growing world population, such human interventions in water-vegetation systems have, as also shown, repercussions on the water cycle. Indeed, land use changes are shown to be the second-most important influence on the terrestrial water balance in recent times. Furthermore, climate change (warming and precipitation changes) will in many regions increase irrigation demand and decrease water availability, impeding rainfed and irrigated food production (if not CO2 effects counterbalance this impact - which is unlikely at least in poorly managed systems). Drawing from these exemplary investigations, some research perspectives on how to further improve our knowledge of human-water-vegetation interactions in the Anthropocene are outlined.
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    Three perceptions of the evapotranspiration landscape: Comparing spatial patterns from a distributed hydrological model, remotely sensed surface temperatures, and sub-basin water balances
    (Chichester : John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2013) Conradt, T.; Wechsung, F.; Bronstert, A.
    A problem encountered by many distributed hydrological modelling studies is high simulation errors at interior gauges when the model is only globally calibrated at the outlet. We simulated river runoff in the Elbe River basin in central Europe (148 268 km2) with the semi-distributed eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model). While global parameter optimisation led to Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.9 at the main outlet gauge, comparisons with measured runoff series at interior points revealed large deviations. Therefore, we compared three different strategies for deriving sub-basin evapotranspiration: (1) modelled by SWIM without any spatial calibration, (2) derived from remotely sensed surface temperatures, and (3) calculated from long-term precipitation and discharge data. The results show certain consistencies between the modelled and the remote sensing based evapotranspiration rates, but there seems to be no correlation between remote sensing and water balance based estimations. Subsequent analyses for single sub-basins identify amongst others input weather data and systematic error amplification in inter-gauge discharge calculations as sources of uncertainty. The results encourage careful utilisation of different data sources for enhancements in distributed hydrological modelling.
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    Seismic imaging of sandbox experiments – laboratory hardware setup and first reflection seismic sections
    (Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2013) Krawczyk, C.M.; Buddensiek, M.-L.; Oncken, O.; Kukowski, N.
    With the study and technical development introduced here, we combine analogue sandbox simulation techniques with seismic physical modelling of sandbox models. For that purpose, we designed and developed a new mini-seismic facility for laboratory use, comprising a seismic tank, a PC-driven control unit, a positioning system, and piezoelectric transducers used here for the first time in an array mode. To assess the possibilities and limits of seismic imaging of small-scale structures in sandbox models, different geometry setups were tested in the first 2-D experiments that also tested the proper functioning of the device and studied the seismo-elastic properties of the granular media used. Simple two-layer models of different materials and layer thicknesses as well as a more complex model comprising channels and shear zones were tested using different acquisition geometries and signal properties. We suggest using well sorted and well rounded grains with little surface roughness (glass beads). Source receiver-offsets less than 14 cm for imaging structures as small as 2.0–1.5 mm size have proven feasible. This is the best compromise between wide beam and high energy output, and is applicable with a consistent waveform. Resolution of the interfaces of layers of granular materials depends on the interface preparation rather than on the material itself. Flat grading of interfaces and powder coverage yields the clearest interface reflections. Finally, sandbox seismic sections provide images of high quality showing constant thickness layers as well as predefined channel structures and indications of the fault traces from shear zones. Since these were artificially introduced in our test models, they can be regarded as zones of disturbance rather than tectonic shear zones characterized by decompaction. The multiple-offset surveying introduced here, improves the quality with respect to S / N ratio and source signature even more; the maximum depth penetration in glass-bead layers thereby amounts to 5 cm. Thus, the presented mini-seismic device is already able to resolve structures within simple models of saturated porous media, so that multiple-offset seismic imaging of shallow sandbox models, that are structurally evolving, is generally feasible.
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    Two-dimensional numerical investigations on the termination of bilinear flow in fractures
    (Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2013) Ortiz R., A.E.; Jung, R.; Renner, J.
    Bilinear flow occurs when fluid is drained from a permeable matrix by producing it through an enclosed fracture of finite conductivity intersecting a well along its axis. The terminology reflects the combination of two approximately linear flow regimes: one in the matrix with flow essentially perpendicular to the fracture, and one along the fracture itself associated with the non-negligible pressure drop in it. We investigated the characteristics, in particular the termination, of bilinear flow by numerical modeling allowing for an examination of the entire flow field without prescribing the flow geometry in the matrix. Fracture storage capacity was neglected relying on previous findings that bilinear flow is associated with a quasi-steady flow in the fracture. Numerical results were generalized by dimensionless presentation. Definition of a dimensionless time that, other than in previous approaches, does not use geometrical parameters of the fracture permitted identifying the dimensionless well pressure for the infinitely long fracture as the master curve for type curves of all fractures with finite length from the beginning of bilinear flow up to fully developed radial flow. In log–log scale the master curve's logarithmic derivative initially follows a 1/4-slope straight line (characteristic for bilinear flow) and gradually bends into a horizontal line (characteristic for radial flow) for long times. During the bilinear flow period, isobars normalized to well pressure propagate with the fourth and second root of time in fracture and matrix, respectively. The width-to-length ratio of the pressure field increases proportional to the fourth root of time during the bilinear period, and starts to deviate from this relation close to the deviation of well pressure and its derivative from their fourth-root-of-time relations. At this time, isobars are already significantly inclined with respect to the fracture. The type curves of finite fractures all deviate counterclockwise from the master curve instead of clockwise or counterclockwise from the 1/4-slope straight line as previously proposed. The counterclockwise deviation from the master curve was identified as the arrival of a normalized isobar reflected at the fracture tip 16 times earlier. Nevertheless, two distinct regimes were found in regard to pressure at the fracture tip when bilinear flow ends. For dimensionless fracture conductivities TD < 1, a significant pressure increase is not observed at the fracture tip until bilinear flow is succeeded by radial flow at a fixed dimensionless time. For TD > 10, the pressure at the fracture tip has reached substantial fractions of the associated change in well pressure when the flow field transforms towards intermittent formation linear flow at times that scale inversely with the fourth power of dimensionless fracture conductivity. Our results suggest that semi-log plots of normalized well pressure provide a means for the determination of hydraulic parameters of fracture and matrix after shorter test duration than for conventional analysis.