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Changing seasonal temperature offers a window of opportunity for stricter climate policy
Environmental catastrophes, including the increased severity and frequency of climate extremes, can act as “windows of opportunities” that challenge citizens’ mental models and motivate them to engage in reflective processes, challenging their pre-conceived ideas. Less well understood is whether experiencing changing weather conditions, common in mid-latitudes, can have a similar effect and increase the citizens’ concerns about climate change and their willingness to accept more stringent climate policies. In this paper, we investigate the effects of changing seasonal temperature on the perceived seriousness of climate change and willingness to mitigate climate change. We use data from four yearly waves of a spatially explicit representative population survey in Germany and weather records from the postal code areas in which they live. To our knowledge, this study is the first analysis to link individual perceptions towards climate change and different mitigation options with seasonal temperature changes at specific locations in Europe. The analyzed perceptions were strongly influenced by socio-demographic characteristics and broader societal changes, as well as individual experiences of seasonal temperatures. The results show that experienced seasonal temperature change influences personal climate change concerns as well as the willingness to mitigate climate change, although with a weaker effect. The results indicate that it is the absolute temperature variation experienced that is important, rather than whether it is getting colder or warmer than usual. Considering the influences identified in this study can offer a window of opportunity for more stringent and targeted climate change policy.
Energy system changes in 1.5 °C, well below 2 °C and 2 °C scenarios
Meeting the Paris Agreement's goal to limit global warming to well below 2 °C and pursuing efforts towards 1.5 °C is likely to require more rapid and fundamental energy system changes than the previously-agreed 2 °C target. Here we assess over 200 integrated assessment model scenarios which achieve 2 °C and well-below 2 °C targets, drawn from the IPCC's fifth assessment report database combined with a set of 1.5 °C scenarios produced in recent years. We specifically assess differences in a range of near-term indicators describing CO2 emissions reductions pathways, changes in primary energy and final energy across the economy's major sectors, in addition to more detailed metrics around the use of carbon capture and storage (CCS), negative emissions, low-carbon electricity and hydrogen. © 2018 The Authors
Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways
In the future, the land system will be facing new intersecting challenges. While food demand, especially for resource-intensive livestock based commodities, is expected to increase, the terrestrial system has large potentials for climate change mitigation through improved agricultural management, providing biomass for bioenergy, and conserving or even enhancing carbon stocks of ecosystems. However, uncertainties in future socio-economic land use drivers may result in very different land-use dynamics and consequences for land-based ecosystem services. This is the first study with a systematic interpretation of the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) in terms of possible land-use changes and their consequences for the agricultural system, food provision and prices as well as greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, five alternative Integrated Assessment Models with distinctive land-use modules have been used for the translation of the SSP narratives into quantitative projections. The model results reflect the general storylines of the SSPs and indicate a broad range of potential land-use futures with global agricultural land of 4900 mio ha in 2005 decreasing by 743 mio ha until 2100 at the lower (SSP1) and increasing by 1080 mio ha (SSP3) at the upper end. Greenhouse gas emissions from land use and land use change, as a direct outcome of these diverse land-use dynamics, and agricultural production systems differ strongly across SSPs (e.g. cumulative land use change emissions between 2005 and 2100 range from −54 to 402 Gt CO2). The inclusion of land-based mitigation efforts, particularly those in the most ambitious mitigation scenarios, further broadens the range of potential land futures and can strongly affect greenhouse gas dynamics and food prices. In general, it can be concluded that low demand for agricultural commodities, rapid growth in agricultural productivity and globalized trade, all most pronounced in a SSP1 world, have the potential to enhance the extent of natural ecosystems, lead to lowest greenhouse gas emissions from the land system and decrease food prices over time. The SSP-based land use pathways presented in this paper aim at supporting future climate research and provide the basis for further regional integrated assessments, biodiversity research and climate impact analysis. © 2016 The Authors
Mid-century emission pathways in Japan associated with the global 2 °C goal: national and globalmodels’ assessments based on carbon budgets
This study assesses Japan’s mid-century low-emission pathways using both national and global integrated assessment models in the common mitigation scenario framework, based on the carbon budgets corresponding to the global 2 °C goal. We examine high and low budgets, equal to global cumulative 1600 and 1000 Gt-CO2 (2011–2100) for global models, and 36 and 31 Gt-CO2 (2011–2050) in Japan for national models, based on the cost-effectiveness allocation performed by the global models. The impacts of near-term policy assumption, including the implementation and enhancement of the 2030 target of the nationally determined contribution (NDC), are also considered. Our estimates show that the low budget scenarios require a 75% reduction of CO2 emissions by 2050 below the 2010 level, which is nearly the same as Japan’s governmental 2050 goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80%. With regard to near-term actions, Japan’s 2030 target included in the NDC is on track to meet the high budget scenario, whereas it is falling short for the low budget scenario, which would require emission reductions immediately after 2020. Whereas models differ in the type of energy source on which they foresee Japan basing its decarbonization process (e.g., nuclear- or variable renewable energy-dependent), the large-scale deployment of low-carbon energy (nuclear, renewable, and carbon capture and storage) is shared across most models in both the high and low budget scenarios. By 2050, low-carbon energy represents 44–54% of primary energy and 86–97% of electricity supply in the high and low budget scenarios, respectively. © 2019, The Author(s).