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- ItemChanges of temperature-related agroclimatic indices in Poland(Heidelberg : Springer Verlag, 2016) Graczyk, D.; Kundzewicz, Z.W.
- ItemClimate-driven or human-induced: Indicating severe water scarcity in the Moulouya river basin (Morocco)(Basel : MDPI AG, 2012) Tekken, V.; Kropp, J.P.Many agriculture-based economies are increasingly under stress from climate change and socio-economic pressures. The excessive exploitation of natural resources still represents the standard procedure to achieve socio-economic development. In the area of the Moulouya river basin, Morocco, natural water availability represents a key resource for all economic activities. Agriculture represents the most important sector, and frequently occurring water deficits are aggravated by climate change. On the basis of historical trends taken from CRU TS 2.1, this paper analyses the impact of climate change on the per capita water availability under inclusion of population trends. The Climatic Water Balance (CWB) shows a significant decrease for the winter period, causing adverse effects for the main agricultural season. Further, moisture losses due to increasing evapotranspiration rates indicate problems for the annual water budget and groundwater recharge. The per capita blue water availability falls below a minimum threshold of 500 m3 per year, denoting a high regional vulnerability to increasing water scarcity assuming a no-response scenario. Regional development focusing on the water-intense sectors of agriculture and tourism appears to be at risk. Institutional capacities and policies need to address the problem, and the prompt implementation of innovative water production and efficiency measures is recommended.
- ItemModel-based reconstruction and projections of soil moisture anomalies and crop losses in Poland(Wien [u.a.] : Springer, 2020) Piniewski, Mikołaj; Marcinkowski, Paweł; O’Keeffe, Joanna; Szcześniak, Mateusz; Nieróbca, Anna; Kozyra, Jerzy; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Okruszko, TomaszEvidence shows that soil moisture (SM) anomalies (deficits or excesses) are the key factor affecting crop yield in rain-fed agriculture. Over last decades, Poland has faced several major droughts and at least one major soil moisture excess event leading to severe crop losses. This study aims to simulate the multi-annual variability of SM anomalies in Poland, using a process-based SWAT model and to assess the effect of climate change on future extreme SM conditions, potentially affecting crop yields in Poland. A crop-specific indicator based on simulated daily soil moisture content for the critical development stages of investigated crops (winter cereals, spring cereals, potato and maize) was designed, evaluated for past conditions against empirical crop-weather indices (CWIs), and applied for studying future climate conditions. The study used an ensemble of nine bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX projections for two future horizons: 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 under two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and 8.5. Historical simulation results showed that SWAT was capable of capturing major SM deficit and excess episodes for different crops in Poland. For spring cereals, potato and maize, despite a large model spread, projections generally showed increase of severity of soil moisture deficits, as well as of total area affected by them. Ensemble median fraction of land with extreme soil moisture deficits, occupied by each of these crops, is projected to at least double in size. The signals of change in soil moisture excesses for potato and maize were more dependent on selection of RCP and future horizon. © 2020, The Author(s).
- ItemObserved changes in extreme precipitation in Poland: 1991–2015 versus 1961–1990(Heidelberg : Springer Verlag, 2018) Pińskwar, I.; Choryński, A.; Graczyk, D.; Kundzewicz, Z.W.Several episodes of extreme precipitation excess and extreme precipitation deficit, with considerable economic and social impacts, have occurred in Europe and in Poland in the last decades. However, the changes of related indices exhibit complex variability. This paper analyses changes in indices related to observed abundance and deficit of precipitated water in Poland. Among studied indices are maximum seasonal 24-h precipitation for the winter half-year (Oct.–March) and the summer half-year (Apr.–Sept.), maximum 5-day precipitation, maximum monthly precipitation and number of days with intense or very intense precipitation (respectively, in excess of 10 mm or 20 mm per day). Also, the warm-seasonal maximum number of consecutive dry days (longest period with daily precipitation below 1 mm) was examined. Analysis of precipitation extremes showed that daily maximum precipitation for the summer half-year increased for many stations, and increases during the summer half-year are more numerous than those in the winter half-year. Also, analysis of 5-day and monthly precipitation sums show increases for many stations. Number of days with intense precipitation increases especially in the north-western part of Poland. The number of consecutive dry days is getting higher for many stations in the summer half-year. Comparison of these two periods: colder 1961–1990 and warmer 1991–2015, revealed that during last 25 years most of statistical indices, such as 25th and 75th percentiles, median, mean and maximum are higher. However, many changes discussed in this paper are weak and statistically insignificant. The findings reported in this paper challenge results based on earlier data that do not include 2007–2015.
- ItemClimatic response to anthropogenic sulphate aerosols versus well-mixed greenhouse gases from 1850 to 2000 AD in CLIMBER-2(Abingdon : Taylor and Francis Ltd., 2008) Bauer, E.; Petoukhov, V.; Ganopolski, A.; Eliseev, A.V.The Earth system model CLIMBER-2 is extended by a scheme for calculating the climatic response to anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions. The scheme calculates the direct radiative forcing, the first indirect cloud albedo effect, and the second indirect cloud lifetime effect induced by geographically resolved sulphate aerosol burden. The simulated anthropogenic sulphate aerosol burden in the year 2000 amounts to 0.47 TgS. The best guesses for the radiative forcing due to the direct effect are -0.4 W m-2 and for the decrease in short-wave radiation due to all aerosol effects -0.8 W m-2. The simulated global warming by 1 K from 1850 to 2000 caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases reduces to 0.6 K when the sulphate aerosol effects are included. The model's hydrological sensitivity of 4%/K is decreased by the second indirect effect to 0.8%/K. The quality of the geographically distributed climatic response to the historic emissions of sulphur dioxide and greenhouse gases makes the extended model relevant to computational efficient investigations of future climate change scenarios.
- ItemModeling climate and management change impacts on water quality and in-stream processes in the Elbe river basin(Basel : MDPI AG, 2016) Hesse, C.; Krysanova, V.
- ItemImpact of climate change on larch budmoth cyclic outbreaks(London : Nature Publishing Group, 2016) Iyengar, S.V.; Balakrishnan, J.; Kurths, J.
- ItemComparison of water flows in four European lagoon catchments under a set of future climate scenarios(Basel : MDPI AG, 2015) Hesse, C.; Stefanova, A.; Krysanova, V.
- ItemEffect of climate change on hydrology, sediment and nutrient losses in two lowland catchments in Poland(Basel : MDPI AG, 2017) Marcinkowski, P.; Piniewski, M.; Kardel, I.; Szcześniak, M.; Benestad, R.; Srinivasan, R.; Ignar, S.; Okruszko, T.Future climate change is projected to have significant impact on water resources availability and quality in many parts of the world. The objective of this paper is to assess the effect of projected climate change on water quantity and quality in two lowland catchments (the Upper Narew and the Barycz) in Poland in two future periods (near future: 2021-2050, and far future: 2071-2100). The hydrological model SWAT was driven by climate forcing data from an ensemble of nine bias-corrected General Circulation Models-Regional Climate Models (GCM-RCM) runs based on the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment-European Domain (EURO-CORDEX). Hydrological response to climate warming and wetter conditions (particularly in winter and spring) in both catchments includes: lower snowmelt, increased percolation and baseflow and higher runoff. Seasonal differences in the response between catchments can be explained by their properties (e.g., different thermal conditions and soil permeability). Projections suggest only moderate increases in sediment loss, occurring mainly in summer and winter. A sharper increase is projected in both catchments for TN losses, especially in the Barycz catchment characterized by a more intensive agriculture. The signal of change in annual TP losses is blurred by climate model uncertainty in the Barycz catchment, whereas a weak and uncertain increase is projected in the Upper Narew catchment.
- ItemAgent-based modeling to integrate elements from different disciplines for ambitious climate policy(Malden, MA : Wiley-Blackwell, 2022) Savin, Ivan; Creutzig, Felix; Filatova, Tatiana; Foramitti, Joël; Konc, Théo; Niamir, Leila; Safarzynska, Karolina; van den Bergh, JeroenAmbitious climate mitigation policies face social and political resistance. One reason is that existing policies insufficiently capture the diversity of relevant insights from the social sciences about potential policy outcomes. We argue that agent-based models can serve as a powerful tool for integration of elements from different disciplines. Having such a common platform will enable a more complete assessment of climate policies, in terms of criteria like effectiveness, equity and public support. This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling > Knowledge Generation with Models The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Policies, Instruments, Lifestyles, Behavior Policy and Governance > Multilevel and Transnational Climate Change Governance.