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Changes in black carbon emissions over Europe due to COVID-19 lockdowns
Following the emergence of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) responsible for COVID-19 in December 2019 in Wuhan (China) and its spread to the rest of the world, the World Health Organization declared a global pandemic in March 2020. Without effective treatment in the initial pandemic phase, social distancing and mandatory quarantines were introduced as the only available preventative measure. In contrast to the detrimental societal impacts, air quality improved in all countries in which strict lockdowns were applied, due to lower pollutant emissions. Here we investigate the effects of the COVID-19 lockdowns in Europe on ambient black carbon (BC), which affects climate and damages health, using in situ observations from 17 European stations in a Bayesian inversion framework. BC emissions declined by 23 kt in Europe (20 % in Italy, 40 % in Germany, 34 % in Spain, 22 % in France) during lockdowns compared to the same period in the previous 5 years, which is partially attributed to COVID-19 measures. BC temporal variation in the countries enduring the most drastic restrictions showed the most distinct lockdown impacts. Increased particle light absorption in the beginning of the lockdown, confirmed by assimilated satellite and remote sensing data, suggests residential combustion was the dominant BC source. Accordingly, in central and Eastern Europe, which experienced lower than average temperatures, BC was elevated compared to the previous 5 years. Nevertheless, an average decrease of 11 % was seen for the whole of Europe compared to the start of the lockdown period, with the highest peaks in France (42 %), Germany (21 %), UK (13 %), Spain (11 %) and Italy (8 %). Such a decrease was not seen in the previous years, which also confirms the impact of COVID-19 on the European emissions of BC.
Formation of organic aerosol in the Paris region during the MEGAPOLI summer campaign: Evaluation of the volatility-basis-set approach within the CHIMERE model
Simulations with the chemistry transport model CHIMERE are compared to measurements performed during the MEGAPOLI (Megacities: Emissions, urban, regional and Global Atmospheric POLlution and climate effects, and Integrated tools for assessment and mitigation) summer campaign in the Greater Paris region in July 2009. The volatility-basis-set approach (VBS) is implemented into this model, taking into account the volatility of primary organic aerosol (POA) and the chemical aging of semi-volatile organic species. Organic aerosol is the main focus and is simulated with three different configurations with a modified treatment of POA volatility and modified secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation schemes. In addition, two types of emission inventories are used as model input in order to test the uncertainty related to the emissions. Predictions of basic meteorological parameters and primary and secondary pollutant concentrations are evaluated, and four pollution regimes are defined according to the air mass origin. Primary pollutants are generally overestimated, while ozone is consistent with observations. Sulfate is generally overestimated, while ammonium and nitrate levels are well simulated with the refined emission data set. As expected, the simulation with non-volatile POA and a single-step SOA formation mechanism largely overestimates POA and underestimates SOA. Simulation of organic aerosol with the VBS approach taking into account the aging of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOC) shows the best correlation with measurements. High-concentration events observed mostly after long-range transport are well reproduced by the model. Depending on the emission inventory used, simulated POA levels are either reasonable or underestimated, while SOA levels tend to be overestimated. Several uncertainties related to the VBS scheme (POA volatility, SOA yields, the aging parameterization), to emission input data, and to simulated OH levels can be responsible for this behavior. Despite these uncertainties, the implementation of the VBS scheme into the CHIMERE model allowed for much more realistic organic aerosol simulations for Paris during summertime. The advection of SOA from outside Paris is mostly responsible for the highest OA concentration levels. During advection of polluted air masses from northeast (Benelux and Central Europe), simulations indicate high levels of both anthropogenic and biogenic SOA fractions, while biogenic SOA dominates during periods with advection from Southern France and Spain.
Paris Climate Agreement passes the cost-benefit test
The Paris Climate Agreement aims to keep temperature rise well below 2 °C. This implies mitigation costs as well as avoided climate damages. Here we show that independent of the normative assumptions of inequality aversion and time preferences, the agreement constitutes the economically optimal policy pathway for the century. To this end we consistently incorporate a damage-cost curve reproducing the observed relation between temperature and economic growth into the integrated assessment model DICE. We thus provide an inter-temporally optimizing cost-benefit analysis of this century’s climate problem. We account for uncertainties regarding the damage curve, climate sensitivity, socioeconomic future, and mitigation costs. The resulting optimal temperature is robust as can be understood from the generic temperature-dependence of the mitigation costs and the level of damages inferred from the observed temperature-growth relationship. Our results show that the politically motivated Paris Climate Agreement also represents the economically favourable pathway, if carried out properly.
Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement
Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish pledged Nationally Determined Contributions and to contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2023, the global stocktake will assess the combined effort of countries. Here, based on a public policy database and a multi-model scenario analysis, we show that implementation of current policies leaves a median emission gap of 22.4 to 28.2 GtCO2eq by 2030 with the optimal pathways to implement the well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C Paris goals. If Nationally Determined Contributions would be fully implemented, this gap would be reduced by a third. Interestingly, the countries evaluated were found to not achieve their pledged contributions with implemented policies (implementation gap), or to have an ambition gap with optimal pathways towards well below 2 °C. This shows that all countries would need to accelerate the implementation of policies for renewable technologies, while efficiency improvements are especially important in emerging countries and fossil-fuel-dependent countries.
Long-range and local air pollution: What can we learn from chemical speciation of particulate matter at paired sites?
Here we report results of a detailed analysis of the urban and non-urban contributions to particulate matter (PM) concentrations and source contributions in five European cities, namely Schiedam (the Netherlands, NL), Lens (France, FR), Leipzig (Germany, DE), Zurich (Switzerland, CH) and Barcelona (Spain, ES). PM chemically speciated data from 12 European paired monitoring sites (one traffic, five urban, five regional and one continental background) were analysed by positive matrix factorisation (PMF) and Lenschow's approach to assign measured PM and source contributions to the different spatial levels. Five common sources were obtained at the 12 sites: sulfate-rich (SSA) and nitrate-rich (NSA) aerosols, road traffic (RT), mineral matter (MM), and aged sea salt (SS). These sources explained from 55 % to 88 % of PM mass at urban low-traffic-impact sites (UB) depending on the country. Three additional common sources were identified at a subset of sites/countries, namely biomass burning (BB) (FR, CH and DE), explaining an additional 9 %-13 % of PM mass, and residual oil combustion (V-Ni) and primary industrial (IND) (NL and ES), together explaining an additional 11 %-15 % of PM mass. In all countries, the majority of PM measured at UB sites was of a regional+continental (R+C) nature (64 %-74 %). The R+C PM increments due to anthropogenic emissions in DE, NL, CH, ES and FR represented around 66 %, 62 %, 52 %, 32 % and 23 %, respectively, of UB PM mass. Overall, the R+C PM increments due to natural and anthropogenic sources showed opposite seasonal profiles with the former increasing in summer and the latter increasing in winter, even if exceptions were observed. In ES, the anthropogenic R+C PM increment was higher in summer due to high contributions from regional SSA and V-Ni sources, both being mostly related to maritime shipping emissions at the Spanish sites. Conversely, in the other countries, higher anthropogenic R+C PM increments in winter were mostly due to high contributions from NSA and BB regional sources during the cold season. On annual average, the sources showing higher R+C increments were SSA (77 %-91 % of SSA source contribution at the urban level), NSA (51 %-94 %), MM (58 %-80 %), BB (42 %-78 %) and IND (91 % in NL). Other sources showing high R+C increments were photochemistry and coal combustion (97 %-99 %; identified only in DE). The highest regional SSA increment was observed in ES, especially in summer, and was related to ship emissions, enhanced photochemistry and peculiar meteorological patterns of the Western Mediterranean. The highest R+C and urban NSA increments were observed in NL and associated with high availability of precursors such as NOx and NH3. Conversely, on average, the sources showing higher local increments were RT (62 %-90 % at all sites) and V-Ni (65 %-80 % in ES and NL). The relationship between SSA and V-Ni indicated that the contribution of ship emissions to the local sulfate concentrations in NL has strongly decreased since 2007 thanks to the shift from high-sulfur-to low-sulfur-content fuel used by ships. An improvement of air quality in the five cities included here could be achieved by further reducing local (urban) emissions of PM, NOx and NH3 (from both traffic and non-traffic sources) but also SO2 and PM (from maritime ships and ports) and giving high relevance to non-urban contributions by further reducing emissions of SO2 (maritime shipping) and NH3 (agriculture) and those from industry, regional BB sources and coal combustion. © 2020 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved.
Organic aerosol source apportionment by offline-AMS over a full year in Marseille
We investigated the seasonal trends of OA sources affecting the air quality of Marseille (France), which is the largest harbor of the Mediterranean Sea. This was achieved by measurements of nebulized filter extracts using an aerosol mass spectrometer (offline-AMS). In total 216 PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 μm) filter samples were collected over 1 year from August 2011 to July 2012. These filters were used to create 54 composite samples which were analyzed by offline-AMS. The same samples were also analyzed for major water-soluble ions, metals, elemental and organic carbon (EC/OC), and organic markers, including n-alkanes, hopanes, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), lignin and cellulose pyrolysis products, and nitrocatechols. The application of positive matrix factorization (PMF) to the water-soluble AMS spectra enabled the extraction of five factors, related to hydrocarbon-like OA (HOA), cooking OA (COA), biomass burning OA (BBOA), oxygenated OA (OOA), and an industry-related OA (INDOA). Seasonal trends and relative contributions of OA sources were compared with the source apportionment of OA spectra collected from the AMS field deployment at the same station but in different years and for shorter monitoring periods (February 2011 and July 2008). Online- and offline-AMS source apportionment revealed comparable seasonal contribution of the different OA sources. Results revealed that BBOA was the dominant source during winter, representing on average 48 % of the OA, while during summer the main OA component was OOA (63 % of OA mass on average). HOA related to traffic emissions contributed on a yearly average 17 % to the OA mass, while COA was a minor source contributing 4 %. The contribution of INDOA was enhanced during winter (17 % during winter and 11 % during summer), consistent with an increased contribution from light alkanes, light PAHs (fluoranthene, pyrene, phenanthrene), and selenium, which is commonly considered as a unique coal combustion and coke production marker. Online- and offline-AMS source apportionments revealed evolving levoglucosan : BBOA ratios, which were higher during late autumn and March. A similar seasonality was observed in the ratios of cellulose combustion markers to lignin combustion markers, highlighting the contribution from cellulose-rich biomass combustion, possibly related to agricultural activities.
Understanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties
The UN Paris Agreement puts in place a legally binding mechanism to increase mitigation action over time. Countries put forward pledges called nationally determined contributions (NDC) whose impact is assessed in global stocktaking exercises. Subsequently, actions can then be strengthened in light of the Paris climate objective: Limiting global mean temperature increase to well below 2 °C and pursuing efforts to limit it further to 1.5 °C. However, pledged actions are currently described ambiguously and this complicates the global stocktaking exercise. Here, we systematically explore possible interpretations of NDC assumptions, and show that this results in estimated emissions for 2030 ranging from 47 to 63 GtCO2e yr-1. We show that this uncertainty has critical implications for the feasibility and cost to limit warming well below 2 °C and further to 1.5 °C. Countries are currently working towards clarifying the modalities of future NDCs. We identify salient avenues to reduce the overall uncertainty by about 10 percentage points through simple, technical clarifications regarding energy accounting rules. Remaining uncertainties depend to a large extent on politically valid choices about how NDCs are expressed, and therefore raise the importance of a thorough and robust process that keeps track of where emissions are heading over time.
In situ, satellite measurement and model evidence on the dominant regional contribution to fine particulate matter levels in the Paris megacity
A detailed characterization of air quality in the megacity of Paris (France) during two 1-month intensive campaigns and from additional 1-year observations revealed that about 70 % of the urban background fine particulate matter (PM) is transported on average into the megacity from upwind regions. This dominant influence of regional sources was confirmed by in situ measurements during short intensive and longer-term campaigns, aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements from ENVISAT, and modeling results from PMCAMx and CHIMERE chemistry transport models. While advection of sulfate is well documented for other megacities, there was surprisingly high contribution from long-range transport for both nitrate and organic aerosol. The origin of organic PM was investigated by comprehensive analysis of aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS), radiocarbon and tracer measurements during two intensive campaigns. Primary fossil fuel combustion emissions constituted less than 20 % in winter and 40 % in summer of carbonaceous fine PM, unexpectedly small for a megacity. Cooking activities and, during winter, residential wood burning are the major primary organic PM sources. This analysis suggests that the major part of secondary organic aerosol is of modern origin, i.e., from biogenic precursors and from wood burning. Black carbon concentrations are on the lower end of values encountered in megacities worldwide, but still represent an issue for air quality. These comparatively low air pollution levels are due to a combination of low emissions per inhabitant, flat terrain, and a meteorology that is in general not conducive to local pollution build-up. This revised picture of a megacity only being partially responsible for its own average and peak PM levels has important implications for air pollution regulation policies.
Size-dependent particle activation properties in fog during the ParisFog 2012/13 field campaign
Fog-induced visibility reduction is responsible for a variety of hazards in the transport sector. Therefore there is a large demand for an improved understanding of fog formation and thus improved forecasts. Improved fog forecasts require a better understanding of the numerous complex mechanisms during the fog life cycle. During winter 2012/13 a field campaign called ParisFog aiming at fog research took place at SIRTA (Instrumented Site for Atmospheric Remote Sensing Research). SIRTA is located about 20 km southwest of the Paris city center, France, in a semi-urban environment. In situ activation properties of the prevailing fog were investigated by measuring (1) total and interstitial (non-activated) dry particle number size distributions behind two different inlet systems; (2) interstitial hydrated aerosol and fog droplet size distributions at ambient conditions; and (3) cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentration at different supersaturations (SS) with a CCN counter. The aerosol particles were characterized regarding their hygroscopic properties, fog droplet activation behavior and contribution to light scattering for 17 developed fog events. Low particle hygroscopicity with an overall median of the hygroscopicity parameter, κ, of 0.14 was found, likely caused by substantial influence from local traffic and wood burning emissions. Measurements of the aerosol size distribution at ambient RH revealed that the critical wet diameter, above which the hydrated aerosols activate to fog droplets, is rather large (with a median value of 2.6μm) and is highly variable (ranging from 1 to 5μm) between the different fog events. Thus, the number of activated fog droplets was very small and the non-activated hydrated particles were found to contribute significantly to the observed light scattering and thus to the reduction in visibility. Combining all experimental data, the effective peak supersaturation, SSpeak, a measure of the peak supersaturation during the fog formation, was determined. The median SSpeak value was estimated to be in the range from 0.031 to 0.046% (upper and lower limit estimations), which is in good agreement with previous experimental and modeling studies of fog.
Warming assessment of the bottom-up Paris Agreement emissions pledges
Under the bottom-up architecture of the Paris Agreement, countries pledge Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Current NDCs individually align, at best, with divergent concepts of equity and are collectively inconsistent with the Paris Agreement. We show that the global 2030-emissions of NDCs match the sum of each country adopting the least-stringent of five effort-sharing allocations of a well-below 2 °C-scenario. Extending such a self-interested bottom-up aggregation of equity might lead to a median 2100-warming of 2.3 °C. Tightening the warming goal of each country’s effort-sharing approach to aspirational levels of 1.1 °C and 1.3 °C could achieve the 1.5 °C and well-below 2 °C-thresholds, respectively. This new hybrid allocation reconciles the bottom-up nature of the Paris Agreement with its top-down warming thresholds and provides a temperature metric to assess NDCs. When taken as benchmark by other countries, the NDCs of India, the EU, the USA and China lead to 2.6 °C, 3.2 °C, 4 °C and over 5.1 °C warmings, respectively.