Search Results
Ozone depletion in the Arctic and Antarctic stratosphere induced by wildfire smoke
2022, Ansmann, Albert, Ohneiser, Kevin, Chudnovsky, Alexandra, Knopf, Daniel A., Eloranta, Edwin W., Villanueva, Diego, Seifert, Patric, Radenz, Martin, Barja, Boris, Zamorano, Félix, Jimenez, Cristofer, Engelmann, Ronny, Baars, Holger, Griesche, Hannes, Hofer, Julian, Althausen, Dietrich, Wandinger, Ulla
A record-breaking stratospheric ozone loss was observed over the Arctic and Antarctica in 2020. Strong ozone depletion occurred over Antarctica in 2021 as well. The ozone holes developed in smoke-polluted air. In this article, the impact of Siberian and Australian wildfire smoke (dominated by organic aerosol) on the extraordinarily strong ozone reduction is discussed. The study is based on aerosol lidar observations in the North Pole region (October 2019-May 2020) and over Punta Arenas in southern Chile at 53.2°S (January 2020-November 2021) as well as on respective NDACC (Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change) ozone profile observations in the Arctic (Ny-Ålesund) and Antarctica (Neumayer and South Pole stations) in 2020 and 2021. We present a conceptual approach on how the smoke may have influenced the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), which are of key importance in the ozone-depleting processes. The main results are as follows: (a) the direct impact of wildfire smoke below the PSC height range (at 10-12 km) on ozone reduction seems to be similar to well-known volcanic sulfate aerosol effects. At heights of 10-12 km, smoke particle surface area (SA) concentrations of 5-7 μm2 cm-3 (Antarctica, spring 2021) and 6-10 μm2 cm-3 (Arctic, spring 2020) were correlated with an ozone reduction in terms of ozone partial pressure of 0.4-1.2 mPa (about 30 % further ozone reduction over Antarctica) and of 2-3.5 mPa (Arctic, 20 %-30 % reduction with respect to the long-term springtime mean). (b) Within the PSC height range, we found indications that smoke was able to slightly increase the PSC particle number and surface area concentration. In particular, a smoke-related additional ozone loss of 1-2 mPa (10 %-20 % contribution to the total ozone loss over Antarctica) was observed in the 14-23 km PSC height range in September-October 2020 and 2021. Smoke particle number concentrations ranged from 10 to 100 cm-3 and were about a factor of 10 (in 2020) and 5 (in 2021) above the stratospheric aerosol background level. Satellite observations indicated an additional mean column ozone loss (deviation from the long-term mean) of 26-30 Dobson units (9 %-10 %, September 2020, 2021) and 52-57 Dobson units (17 %-20 %, October 2020, 2021) in the smoke-polluted latitudinal Antarctic belt from 70-80°S. Copyright:
Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice
2020, Wunderling, Nico, Willeit, Matteo, Donges, Jonathan F., Winkelmann, Ricarda
Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global mean temperature (GMT) and climate feedbacks have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we quantify this response using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 °C (interquartile range: 0.39−0.46 °C) at a CO2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century. Our findings imply an additional increase of the GMT on intermediate to long time scales.
Review of Environmental Monitoring by Means of Radio Waves in the Polar Regions: From Atmosphere to Geospace
2022, Alfonsi, Lucilla, Bergeot, Nicolas, Cilliers, Pierre J., De Franceschi, Giorgiana, Baddeley, Lisa, Correia, Emilia, Di Mauro, Domenico, Enell, Carl-Fredrik, Engebretson, Mark, Ghoddousi-Fard, Reza, Häggström, Ingemar, Ham, Young-bae, Heygster, Georg, Jee, Geonhwa, Kero, Antti, Kosch, Michael, Kwon, Hyuck-Jin, Lee, Changsup, Lotz, Stefan, Macotela, Liliana, Marcucci, Maria Federica, Miloch, Wojciech J., Morton, Y. Jade, Naoi, Takahiro, Negusini, Monia, Partamies, Noora, Petkov, Boyan H., Pottiaux, Eric, Prikryl, Paul, Shreedevi, P.R., Slapak, Rikard, Spogli, Luca, Stephenson, Judy, Triana-Gómez, Arantxa M., Troshichev, Oleg A., Van Malderen, Roeland, Weygand, James M., Zou, Shasha
The Antarctic and Arctic regions are Earth's open windows to outer space. They provide unique opportunities for investigating the troposphere–thermosphere–ionosphere–plasmasphere system at high latitudes, which is not as well understood as the mid- and low-latitude regions mainly due to the paucity of experimental observations. In addition, different neutral and ionised atmospheric layers at high latitudes are much more variable compared to lower latitudes, and their variability is due to mechanisms not yet fully understood. Fortunately, in this new millennium the observing infrastructure in Antarctica and the Arctic has been growing, thus providing scientists with new opportunities to advance our knowledge on the polar atmosphere and geospace. This review shows that it is of paramount importance to perform integrated, multi-disciplinary research, making use of long-term multi-instrument observations combined with ad hoc measurement campaigns to improve our capability of investigating atmospheric dynamics in the polar regions from the troposphere up to the plasmasphere, as well as the coupling between atmospheric layers. Starting from the state of the art of understanding the polar atmosphere, our survey outlines the roadmap for enhancing scientific investigation of its physical mechanisms and dynamics through the full exploitation of the available infrastructures for radio-based environmental monitoring.
Revisiting temperature sensitivity: how does Antarctic precipitation change with temperature?
2023, Nicola, Lena, Notz, Dirk, Winkelmann, Ricarda
With progressing global warming, snowfall in Antarctica is expected to increase, which could counteract or even temporarily overcompensate increased ice-sheet mass losses caused by increased ice discharge and melting. For sea-level projections it is therefore vital to understand the processes determining snowfall changes in Antarctica. Here we revisit the relationship between Antarctic temperature changes and precipitation changes, identifying and explaining regional differences and deviations from the theoretical approach based on the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Analysing the latest estimates from global (CMIP6, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) and regional (RACMO2.3) model projections, we find an average increase of 5.5 % in annual precipitation over Antarctica per degree of warming, with a minimum sensitivity of 2 % K-1 near Siple Coast and a maximum sensitivity of > 10 % K-1 at the East Antarctic plateau region. This large range can be explained by the prevailing climatic conditions, with local temperatures determining the Clausius-Clapeyron sensitivity that is counteracted in some regions by the prevalence of the coastal wind regime. We compare different approaches of deriving the sensitivity factor, which in some cases can lead to sensitivity changes of up to 7 percentage points for the same model. Importantly, local sensitivity factors are found to be strongly dependent on the warming level, suggesting that some ice-sheet models which base their precipitation estimates on parameterisations derived from these sensitivity factors might overestimate warming-induced snowfall changes, particularly in high-emission scenarios. This would have consequences for Antarctic sea-level projections for this century and beyond.
Ship-based measurements of ice nuclei concentrations over the Arctic, Atlantic, Pacific and Southern oceans
2020, Welti, André, Bigg, Keith E., DeMott, Paul J., Gong, Xianda, Hartmann, Markus, Harvey, Mike, Henning, Silvia, Herenz, Paul, Hill, Thomas C.J., Hornblow, Blake, Leck, Caroline, Löffler, Mareike, McCluskey, Christina S., Rauker, Anne Marie, Schmale, Julia, Tatzelt, Christian, van Pinxteren, Manuela, Stratmann, Frank
Ambient concentrations of ice-forming particles measured during ship expeditions are collected and summarised with the aim of determining the spatial distribution and variability in ice nuclei in oceanic regions. The presented data from literature and previously unpublished data from over 23 months of ship-based measurements stretch from the Arctic to the Southern Ocean and include a circumnavigation of Antarctica. In comparison to continental observations, ship-based measurements of ambient ice nuclei show 1 to 2 orders of magnitude lower mean concentrations. To quantify the geographical variability in oceanic areas, the concentration range of potential ice nuclei in different climate zones is analysed by meridionally dividing the expedition tracks into tropical, temperate and polar climate zones. We find that concentrations of ice nuclei in these meridional zones follow temperature spectra with similar slopes but vary in absolute concentration. Typically, the frequency with which specific concentrations of ice nuclei are observed at a certain temperature follows a log-normal distribution. A consequence of the log-normal distribution is that the mean concentration is higher than the most frequently measured concentration. Finally, the potential contribution of ship exhaust to the measured ice nuclei concentration on board research vessels is analysed as function of temperature. We find a sharp onset of the influence at approximately 36 C but none at warmer temperatures that could bias ship-based measurements. © Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The role of Antarctic overwintering teams and their significance for German polar research
2022, Franke, Steven, Eckstaller, Alfons, Heitland, Tim, Schaefer, Thomas, Asseng, Jölund
Germany has been operating permanently crewed research stations in Antarctica for more than 45 years. The opening of the Georg Forster Station (1976) and Georg von Neumayer Station (1981) initiated a period of continuous environmental monitoring that allowed both the former East Germany and West Germany to become contracting parties in, and achieve consultative status with, the framework of the Antarctic Treaty. This marked a milestone in German polar research. Continuous research at the Neumayer Station III, its two predecessors, and the now-dismantled former German Democratic Republic (GDR) Georg Forster Station is undertaken by teams of so-called "overwinterers", presently with nine members, who stay at the base for longer than an entire Antarctic winter. Their long-Term stay in Antarctica is defined by isolation, separation from civilization, routine work to sustain long-Term scientific observations, and unique personal experiences. This article is dedicated to them and outlines their part and role in the German Antarctic research landscape.
The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica
2021-3-25, Rosier, Sebastian H. R., Reese, Ronja, Donges, Jonathan F., De Rydt, Jan, Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar, Winkelmann, Ricarda
Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet is the main source of uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise, with important implications for coastal regions worldwide. Central to ongoing and future changes is the marine ice sheet instability: once a critical threshold, or tipping point, is crossed, ice internal dynamics can drive a self-sustaining retreat committing a glacier to irreversible, rapid and substantial ice loss. This process might have already been triggered in the Amundsen Sea region, where Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers dominate the current mass loss from Antarctica, but modelling and observational techniques have not been able to establish this rigorously, leading to divergent views on the future mass loss of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here, we aim at closing this knowledge gap by conducting a systematic investigation of the stability regime of Pine Island Glacier. To this end we show that early warning indicators in model simulations robustly detect the onset of the marine ice sheet instability. We are thereby able to identify three distinct tipping points in response to increases in ocean-induced melt. The third and final event, triggered by an ocean warming of approximately 1.2 ∘C from the steady-state model configuration, leads to a retreat of the entire glacier that could initiate a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)
2020, Levermann, Anders, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Albrecht, Torsten, Goelzer, Heiko, Golledge, Nicholas R., Greve, Ralf, Huybrechts, Philippe, Jordan, Jim, Leguy, Gunter, Martin, Daniel, Morlighem, Mathieu, Pattyn, Frank, Pollard, David, Quiquet, Aurelien, Rodehacke, Christian, Seroussi, Helene, Sutter, Johannes, Zhang, Tong, Van Breedam, Jonas, Calov, Reinhard, DeConto, Robert, Dumas, Christophe, Garbe, Julius, Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar, Hoffman, Matthew J., Humbert, Angelika, Kleiner, Thomas, Lipscomb, William H., Meinshausen, Malte, Ng, Esmond, Nowicki, Sophie M.J., Perego, Mauro, Price, Stephen F., Saito, Fuyuki, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, Sun, Sainan, van de Wal, Roderik S.W.
The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century. The purpose of this computation is to estimate the uncertainty of Antarctica's future contribution to global sea level rise that arises from large uncertainty in the oceanic forcing and the associated ice shelf melting. Ice shelf melting is considered to be a major if not the largest perturbation of the ice sheet's flow into the ocean. However, by computing only the sea level contribution in response to ice shelf melting, our study is neglecting a number of processes such as surface-mass-balance-related contributions. In assuming linear response theory, we are able to capture complex temporal responses of the ice sheets, but we neglect any self-dampening or self-amplifying processes. This is particularly relevant in situations in which an instability is dominating the ice loss. The results obtained here are thus relevant, in particular wherever the ice loss is dominated by the forcing as opposed to an internal instability, for example in strong ocean warming scenarios. In order to allow for comparison the methodology was chosen to be exactly the same as in an earlier study (Levermann et al., 2014) but with 16 instead of 5 ice sheet models. We include uncertainty in the atmospheric warming response to carbon emissions (full range of CMIP5 climate model sensitivities), uncertainty in the oceanic transport to the Southern Ocean (obtained from the time-delayed and scaled oceanic subsurface warming in CMIP5 models in relation to the global mean surface warming), and the observed range of responses of basal ice shelf melting to oceanic warming outside the ice shelf cavity. This uncertainty in basal ice shelf melting is then convoluted with the linear response functions of each of the 16 ice sheet models to obtain the ice flow response to the individual global warming path. The model median for the observational period from 1992 to 2017 of the ice loss due to basal ice shelf melting is 10.2 mm, with a likely range between 5.2 and 21.3 mm. For the same period the Antarctic ice sheet lost mass equivalent to 7.4mm of global sea level rise, with a standard deviation of 3.7mm (Shepherd et al., 2018) including all processes, especially surface-mass-balance changes. For the unabated warming path, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), we obtain a median contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global mean sea level rise from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century of 17 cm, with a likely range (66th percentile around the mean) between 9 and 36 cm and a very likely range (90th percentile around the mean) between 6 and 58 cm. For the RCP2.6 warming path, which will keep the global mean temperature below 2 °C of global warming and is thus consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement, the procedure yields a median of 13 cm of global mean sea level contribution. The likely range for the RCP2.6 scenario is between 7 and 24 cm, and the very likely range is between 4 and 37 cm. The structural uncertainties in the method do not allow for an interpretation of any higher uncertainty percentiles.We provide projections for the five Antarctic regions and for each model and each scenario separately. The rate of sea level contribution is highest under the RCP8.5 scenario. The maximum within the 21st century of the median value is 4 cm per decade, with a likely range between 2 and 9 cm per decade and a very likely range between 1 and 14 cm per decade. © Author(s) 2020.
Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets
2021, Payne, Antony J., Nowicki, Sophie, Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako, Agosta, Cécile, Alexander, Patrick, Albrecht, Torsten, Asay‐Davis, Xylar, Aschwanden, Andy, Barthel, Alice, Bracegirdle, Thomas J., Calov, Reinhard, Chambers, Christopher, Choi, Youngmin, Cullather, Richard, Cuzzone, Joshua, Dumas, Christophe, Edwards, Tamsin L., Felikson, Denis, Fettweis, Xavier, Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K., Goelzer, Heiko, Gladstone, Rupert, Golledge, Nicholas R., Gregory, Jonathan M., Greve, Ralf, Hattermann, Tore, Hoffman, Matthew J., Humbert, Angelika, Huybrechts, Philippe, Jourdain, Nicolas C., Kleiner, Thomas, Munneke, Peter Kuipers, Larour, Eric, Le clec'h, Sebastien, Lee, Victoria, Leguy, Gunter, Lipscomb, William H., Little, Christopher M., Lowry, Daniel P., Morlighem, Mathieu, Nias, Isabel, Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler, Price, Stephen F., Quiquet, Aurélien, Reese, Ronja, Rückamp, Martin, Schlegel, Nicole‐Jeanne, Seroussi, Hélène, Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Slater, Donald, Smith, Robin S., Straneo, Fiammetta, Sun, Sainan, Tarasov, Lev, Trusel, Luke D., Van Breedam, Jonas, Wal, Roderik, Broeke, Michiel, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zhao, Chen, Zhang, Tong, Zwinger, Thomas
Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.
Timescales of outlet-glacier flow with negligible basal friction: Theory, observations and modeling
2023, Feldmann, Johannes, Levermann, Anders
The timescales of the flow and retreat of Greenland's and Antarctica's outlet glaciers and their potential instabilities are arguably the largest uncertainty in future sea-level projections. Here we derive a scaling relation that allows the comparison of the timescales of observed complex ice flow fields with geometric similarity. The scaling relation is derived under the assumption of fast, laterally confined, geometrically similar outlet-glacier flow over a slippery bed, i.e., with negligible basal friction. According to the relation, the time scaling of the outlet flow is determined by the product of the inverse of (1) the fourth power of the width-To-length ratio of its confinement, (2) the third power of the confinement depth and (3) the temperature-dependent ice softness. For the outflow at the grounding line of streams with negligible basal friction, this means that the volume flux is proportional to the ice softness and the bed depth, but goes with the fourth power of the gradient of the bed and with the fifth power of the width of the stream. We show that the theoretically derived scaling relation is supported by the observed velocity scaling of outlet glaciers across Greenland as well as by idealized numerical simulations of marine ice-sheet instabilities (MISIs) as found in Antarctica. Assuming that changes in the ice-flow velocity due to ice-dynamic imbalance are proportional to the equilibrium velocity, we combine the scaling relation with a statistical analysis of the topography of 13 MISI-prone Antarctic outlets. Under these assumptions, the timescales in response to a potential destabilization are fastest for Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica and Mellor, Ninnis and Cook Glaciers in East Antarctica; between 16 and 67 times faster than for Pine Island Glacier. While the applicability of our results is limited by several strong assumptions, the utilization and potential further development of the presented scaling approach may help to constrain timescale estimates of outlet-glacier flow, augmenting the commonly exploited and comparatively computationally expensive approach of numerical modeling.