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- ItemStrong time dependence of ocean acidification mitigation by atmospheric carbon dioxide removal([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2019) Hofmann, M.; Mathesius, S.; Kriegler, E.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Schellnhuber, H.J.In Paris in 2015, the global community agreed to limit global warming to well below 2 ∘C, aiming at even 1.5 ∘C. It is still uncertain whether these targets are sufficient to preserve marine ecosystems and prevent a severe alteration of marine biogeochemical cycles. Here, we show that stringent mitigation strategies consistent with the 1.5 ∘C scenario could, indeed, provoke a critical difference for the ocean’s carbon cycle and calcium carbonate saturation states. Favorable conditions for calcifying organisms like tropical corals and polar pteropods, both of major importance for large ecosystems, can only be maintained if CO2 emissions fall rapidly between 2025 and 2050, potentially requiring an early deployment of CO2 removal techniques in addition to drastic emissions reduction. Furthermore, this outcome can only be achieved if the terrestrial biosphere remains a carbon sink during the entire 21st century.
- ItemThe Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to C4MIP: Quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions(Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2019) Jones, Chris D.; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Koven, Charles; MacDougall, Andrew H.; Matthews, H. Damon; Zickfeld, Kirsten; Rogelj, Joeri; Tokarska, Katarzyna B.; Gillett, Nathan P.; Ilyina, Tatiana; Meinshausen, Malte; Mengis, Nadine; Séférian, Roland; Eby, Michael; Burger, Friedrich A.The amount of additional future temperature change following a complete cessation of CO2 emissions is a measure of the unrealized warming to which we are committed due to CO2 already emitted to the atmosphere. This “zero emissions commitment” (ZEC) is also an important quantity when estimating the remaining carbon budget – a limit on the total amount of CO2 emissions consistent with limiting global mean temperature at a particular level. In the recent IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 ∘C, the carbon budget framework used to calculate the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 ∘C included the assumption that the ZEC due to CO2 emissions is negligible and close to zero. Previous research has shown significant uncertainty even in the sign of the ZEC. To close this knowledge gap, we propose the Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP), which will quantify the amount of unrealized temperature change that occurs after CO2 emissions cease and investigate the geophysical drivers behind this climate response. Quantitative information on ZEC is a key gap in our knowledge, and one that will not be addressed by currently planned CMIP6 simulations, yet it is crucial for verifying whether carbon budgets need to be adjusted to account for any unrealized temperature change resulting from past CO2 emissions. We request only one top-priority simulation from comprehensive general circulation Earth system models (ESMs) and Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) – a branch from the 1 % CO2 run with CO2 emissions set to zero at the point of 1000 PgC of total CO2 emissions in the simulation – with the possibility for additional simulations, if resources allow. ZECMIP is part of CMIP6, under joint sponsorship by C4MIP and CDRMIP, with associated experiment names to enable data submissions to the Earth System Grid Federation. All data will be published and made freely available.
- ItemLarge-scale electrical resistivity tomography in the Cheb Basin (Eger Rift) at an International Continental Drilling Program (ICDP) monitoring site to image fluid-related structures(Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2019) Nickschick, Tobias; Flechsig, Christina; Mrlina, Jan; Oppermann, Frank; Löbig, Felix; Günther, ThomasThe Cheb Basin, a region of ongoing swarm earthquake activity in the western Czech Republic, is characterized by intense carbon dioxide degassing along two known fault zones – the N–S-striking Počatky–Plesná fault zone (PPZ) and the NW–SE-striking Mariánské Lázně fault zone (MLF). The fluid pathways for the ascending CO2 of mantle origin are one of the subjects of the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) project “Drilling the Eger Rift” in which several geophysical surveys are currently being carried out in this area to image the topmost hundreds of meters to assess the structural situation, as existing boreholes are not sufficiently deep to characterize it. As electrical resistivity is a sensitive parameter to the presence of conductive rock fractions as liquid fluids, clay minerals, and also metallic components, a large-scale dipole–dipole experiment using a special type of electric resistivity tomography (ERT) was carried out in June 2017 in order to image fluid-relevant structures. We used permanently placed data loggers for voltage measurements in conjunction with moving high-power current sources to generate sufficiently strong signals that could be detected all along the 6.5 km long profile with 100 and 150 m dipole spacings. After extensive processing of time series for voltage and current using a selective stacking approach, the pseudo-section is inverted, which results in a resistivity model that allows for reliable interpretations depths of up than 1000 m. The subsurface resistivity image reveals the deposition and transition of the overlying Neogene Vildštejn and Cypris formations, but it also shows a very conductive basement of phyllites and granites that can be attributed to high salinity or rock alteration by these fluids in the tectonically stressed basement. Distinct, narrow pathways for CO2 ascent are not observed with this kind of setup, which hints at wide degassing structures over several kilometers within the crust instead. We also observed gravity and GPS data along this profile in order to constrain ERT results. A gravity anomaly of ca. −9 mGal marks the deepest part of the Cheb Basin where the ERT profile indicates a large accumulation of conductive rocks, indicating a very deep weathering or alteration of the phyllitic basement due to the ascent of magmatic fluids such as CO2. We propose a conceptual model in which certain lithologic layers act as caps for the ascending fluids based on stratigraphic records and our results from this experiment, providing a basis for future drillings in the area aimed at studying and monitoring fluids.