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- ItemOverview: The Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEAR)(Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2023) Meier, H. E. Markus; Reckermann, Marcus; Langner, Joakim; Smith, Ben; Didenkulova, IraBaltic Earth is an independent research network of scientists from all Baltic Sea countries that promotes regional Earth system research. Within the framework of this network, the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEARs) were produced in the period 2019-2022. These are a collection of 10 review articles summarising current knowledge on the environmental and climatic state of the Earth system in the Baltic Sea region and its changes in the past (palaeoclimate), present (historical period with instrumental observations) and prospective future (until 2100) caused by natural variability, climate change and other human activities. The division of topics among articles follows the grand challenges and selected themes of the Baltic Earth Science Plan, such as the regional water, biogeochemical and carbon cycles; extremes and natural hazards; sea-level dynamics and coastal erosion; marine ecosystems; coupled Earth system models; scenario simulations for the regional atmosphere and the Baltic Sea; and climate change and impacts of human use. Each review article contains an introduction, the current state of knowledge, knowledge gaps, conclusions and key messages; the latter are the bases on which recommendations for future research are made. Based on the BEARs, Baltic Earth has published an information leaflet on climate change in the Baltic Sea as part of its outreach work, which has been published in two languages so far, and organised conferences and workshops for stakeholders, in collaboration with the Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission (Helsinki Commission, HELCOM).
- ItemGlobal cotton production under climate change – Implications for yield and water consumption(Munich : EGU, 2021) Jans, Yvonne; von Bloh, Werner; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Müller, ChristophBeing an extensively produced natural fiber on earth, cotton is of importance for economies. Although the plant is broadly adapted to varying environments, the growth of and irrigation water demand on cotton may be challenged by future climate change. To study the impacts of climate change on cotton productivity in different regions across the world and the irrigation water requirements related to it, we use the process-based, spatially detailed biosphere and hydrology model LPJmL (Lund Potsdam Jena managed land). We find our modeled cotton yield levels in good agreement with reported values and simulated water consumption of cotton production similar to published estimates. Following the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) protocol, we employ an ensemble of five general circulation models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the 2011 2099 period to simulate future cotton yields. We find that irrigated cotton production does not suffer from climate change if CO2 effects are considered, whereas rainfed production is more sensitive to varying climate conditions. Considering the overall effect of a changing climate and CO2 fertilization, cotton production on current cropland steadily increases for most of the RCPs. Starting from _ 65 million tonnes in 2010, cotton production for RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 equates to 83 and 92 million tonnes at the end of the century, respectively. Under RCP8.5, simulated global cotton production rises by more than 50% by 2099. Taking only climate change into account, projected cotton production considerably shrinks in most scenarios, by up to one-Third or 43 million tonnes under RCP8.5. The simulation of future virtual water content (VWC) of cotton grown under elevated CO2 results for all scenarios in less VWC compared to ambient CO2 conditions. Under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, VWC is notably decreased by more than 2000m3 t1 in areas where cotton is produced under purely rainfed conditions. By 2040, the average global VWC for cotton declines in all scenarios from currently 3300 to 3000m3 t1, and reduction continues by up to 30% in 2100 under RCP8.5. While the VWC decreases by the CO2 effect, elevated temperature acts in the opposite direction. Ignoring beneficial CO2 effects, global VWC of cotton would increase for all RCPs except RCP2.6, reaching more than 5000m3 t1 by the end of the simulation period under RCP8.5. Given the economic relevance of cotton production, climate change poses an additional stress and deserves special attention. Changes in VWC and water demands for cotton production are of special importance, as cotton production is known for its intense water consumption. The implications of climate impacts on cotton production on the one hand and the impact of cotton production on water resources on the other hand illustrate the need to assess how future climate change may affect cotton production and its resource requirements. Our results should be regarded as optimistic, because of high uncertainty with respect to CO2 fertilization and the lack of implementing processes of boll abscission under heat stress. Still, the inclusion of cotton in LPJmL allows for various large-scale studies to assess impacts of climate change on hydrological factors and the implications for agricultural production and carbon sequestration. © 2021 BMJ Publishing Group. All rights reserved.
- ItemPlanned relocation in Peru: advancing from well-meant legislation to good practice(New York : Springer, 2021) Bergmann, JonasAlong Peru’s rainforest rivers, rising flood extremes are increasingly exceeding coping capacities of vulnerable households. Peru has detailed legislation that embraces planned relocation as a strategic solution to such situations and various relocation projects are underway across the country. This research brief analyzes well-being consequences for two communities requesting relocation, using qualitative data collected from experts and 30 affected people. Initial results emphasize that weak governance, poverty, third-party involvement, and community action have influenced relocation outcomes. Delays and fragmented implementation have threatened people’s well-being. One community, waiting for land to relocate since 2015, has suffered from continued hazard exposure, deteriorated material conditions, and reduced subjective well-being. The second community achieved relocation only after a decade in detrimental limbo. Although livelihood challenges persist, its inhabitants now benefit from better market access and decreased exposure, leading to higher subjective well-being. With rising needs for relocation worldwide, the cases highlight that detailed legislation is not sufficient to safeguard people’s well-being. Advancing from well-meant legislation to good practice requires adequate institutional capacity, effective mechanisms for oversight and accountability, better engagement of third parties, and dedicated efforts to strengthen community agency.
- ItemThe social cost of carbon and inequality: When local redistribution shapes global carbon prices(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2021) Kornek, Ulrike; Klenert, David; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Fleurbaey, MarcThe social cost of carbon is a central metric for optimal carbon prices. Previous literature shows that inequality significantly influences the social cost of carbon, but mostly omits heterogeneity below the national level. We present an optimal taxation model of the social cost of carbon that accounts for inequality between and within countries. We find that climate and distributional policy can generally not be separated. If only one country does not compensate low-income households for disproportionate damages, the social cost of carbon tends to increase globally. Optimal carbon prices remain roughly unchanged if national redistribution leaves inequality between households unaffected by climate change and if the utility of households is approximately logarithmic in consumption.
- ItemPotential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities(London : Nature Publishing Group, 2022) Cinner, Joshua E; Caldwell, Iain R; Thiault, Lauric; Ben, John; Blanchard, Julia L; Coll, Marta; Diedrich, Amy; Eddy, Tyler D; Everett, Jason D; Folberth, Christian; Gascuel, Didier; Guiet, Jerome; Gurney, Georgina G; Heneghan, Ryan F; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Jiddawi, Narriman; Lahari, Rachael; Kuange, John; Liu, Wenfeng; Maury, Olivier; Müller, Christoph; Novaglio, Camilla; Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano; Petrik, Colleen M; Rabearisoa, Ando; Tittensor, Derek P; Wamukota, Andrew; Pollnac, RichardClimate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations (> 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status.
- ItemA review of the potential climate change impacts and adaptation options for European viticulture(Basel : MDPI, 2020) Santos, João A.; Fraga, Helder; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Moutinho-Pereira, José; Dinis, Lia-Tânia; Correia, Carlos; Moriondo, Marco; Leolini, Luisa; Dibari, Camilla; Costafreda-Aumedes, Sergi; Kartschall, Thomas; Menz, Christoph; Molitor, Daniel; Junk, Jürgen; Beyer, Marco; Schultz, Hans R.Viticulture and winemaking are important socioeconomic sectors in many European regions. Climate plays a vital role in the terroir of a given wine region, as it strongly controls canopy microclimate, vine growth, vine physiology, yield, and berry composition, which together determine wine attributes and typicity. New challenges are, however, predicted to arise from climate change, as grapevine cultivation is deeply dependent on weather and climate conditions. Changes in viticultural suitability over the last decades, for viticulture in general or the use of specific varieties, have already been reported for many wine regions. Despite spatially heterogeneous impacts, climate change is anticipated to exacerbate these recent trends on suitability for wine production. These shifts may reshape the geographical distribution of wine regions, while wine typicity may also be threatened in most cases. Changing climates will thereby urge for the implementation of timely, suitable, and cost-effective adaptation strategies, which should also be thoroughly planned and tuned to local conditions for an effective risk reduction. Although the potential of the different adaptation options is not yet fully investigated, deserving further research activities, their adoption will be of utmost relevance to maintain the socioeconomic and environmental sustainability of the highly valued viticulture and winemaking sector in Europe. © 2020 by the authors.
- ItemAtmospheric CO2 availability induces varying responses in net photosynthesis, toxin production and N2 fixation rates in heterocystous filamentous Cyanobacteria (Nostoc and Nodularia)(Basel ; Heidelberg : Springer, 2021) Wannicke, Nicola; Herrmann, Achim; Gehringer, Michelle M.Heterocystous Cyanobacteria of the genus Nodularia form major blooms in brackish waters, while terrestrial Nostoc species occur worldwide, often associated in biological soil crusts. Both genera, by virtue of their ability to fix N2 and conduct oxygenic photosynthesis, contribute significantly to global primary productivity. Select Nostoc and Nodularia species produce the hepatotoxin nodularin and whether its production will change under climate change conditions needs to be assessed. In light of this, the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 availability on growth, carbon and N2 fixation as well as nodularin production were investigated in toxin and non-toxin producing species of both genera. Results highlighted the following:Biomass and volume specific biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) rates were respectively almost six and 17 fold higher in the aquatic Nodularia species compared to the terrestrial Nostoc species tested, under elevated CO2 conditions.There was a direct correlation between elevated CO2 and decreased dry weight specific cellular nodularin content in a diazotrophically grown terrestrial Nostoc species, and the aquatic Nodularia species, regardless of nitrogen availability.Elevated atmospheric CO2 levels were correlated to a reduction in biomass specific BNF rates in non-toxic Nodularia species.Nodularin producers exhibited stronger stimulation of net photosynthesis rates (NP) and growth (more positive Cohen’s d) and less stimulation of dark respiration and BNF per volume compared to non-nodularin producers under elevated CO2 levels. This study is the first to provide information on NP and nodularin production under elevated atmospheric CO2 levels for Nodularia and Nostoc species under nitrogen replete and diazotrophic conditions.
- ItemCold atoms in space: community workshop summary and proposed road-map(Berlin ; Heidelberg [u.a.] : Springer Open, 2022) Alonso, Iván; Alpigiani, Cristiano; Altschul, Brett; Araújo, Henrique; Arduini, Gianluigi; Arlt, Jan; Badurina, Leonardo; Balaž, Antun; Bandarupally, Satvika; Barish, Barry C.; Barone, Michele; Reguzzoni, Mirko; Richaud, Andrea; Riou, Isabelle; Rothacher, Markus; Roura, Albert; Ruschhaupt, Andreas; Sabulsky, Dylan O.; Safronova, Marianna; Saltas, Ippocratis D.; Bernabeu, Jose; Haehnelt, Martin; Salvi, Leonardo; Sameed, Muhammed; Saurabh, Pandey; Schäffer, Stefan; Schiller, Stephan; Schilling, Manuel; Schkolnik, Vladimir; Schlippert, Dennis; Schmidt, Piet O.; Schnatz, Harald; Hanımeli, Ekim T.; Bertoldi, Andrea; Schneider, Jean; Schneider, Ulrich; Schreck, Florian; Schubert, Christian; Shayeghi, Armin; Sherrill, Nathaniel; Shipsey, Ian; Signorini, Carla; Singh, Rajeev; Hawkins, Leonie; Singh, Yeshpal; Bingham, Robert; Skordis, Constantinos; Smerzi, Augusto; Sopuerta, Carlos F.; Sorrentino, Fiodor; Sphicas, Paraskevas; Stadnik, Yevgeny V.; Stefanescu, Petruta; Tarallo, Marco G.; Hees, Aurélien; Tentindo, Silvia; Tino, Guglielmo M.; Bize, Sébastien; Tinsley, Jonathan N.; Tornatore, Vincenza; Treutlein, Philipp; Trombettoni, Andrea; Tsai, Yu-Dai; Tuckey, Philip; Uchida, Melissa A.; Henderson, Victoria A.; Valenzuela, Tristan; Van Den Bossche, Mathias; Vaskonen, Ville; Blas, Diego; Verma, Gunjan; Vetrano, Flavio; Vogt, Christian; von Klitzing, Wolf; Waller, Pierre; Walser, Reinhold; Herr, Waldemar; Wille, Eric; Williams, Jason; Windpassinger, Patrick; Wittrock, Ulrich; Bongs, Kai; Wolf, Peter; Woltmann, Marian; Wörner, Lisa; Xuereb, André; Yahia, Mohamed; Herrmann, Sven; Yazgan, Efe; Yu, Nan; Zahzam, Nassim; Zambrini Cruzeiro, Emmanuel; Zhan, Mingsheng; Bouyer, Philippe; Zou, Xinhao; Zupan, Jure; Zupanič, Erik; Braitenberg, Carla; Hird, Thomas; Brand, Christian; Braxmaier, Claus; Bresson, Alexandre; Buchmueller, Oliver; Budker, Dmitry; Bugalho, Luís; Burdin, Sergey; Cacciapuoti, Luigi; Callegari, Simone; Calmet, Xavier; Hobson, Richard; Calonico, Davide; Canuel, Benjamin; Caramete, Laurentiu-Ioan; Carraz, Olivier; Cassettari, Donatella; Chakraborty, Pratik; Chattopadhyay, Swapan; Chauhan, Upasna; Chen, Xuzong; Chen, Yu-Ao; Hock, Vincent; Chiofalo, Maria Luisa; Coleman, Jonathon; Corgier, Robin; Cotter, J. P.; Michael Cruise, A.; Cui, Yanou; Davies, Gavin; De Roeck, Albert; Demarteau, Marcel; Derevianko, Andrei; Barsanti, Michele; Di Clemente, Marco; Djordjevic, Goran S.; Donadi, Sandro; Doré, Olivier; Dornan, Peter; Doser, Michael; Drougakis, Giannis; Dunningham, Jacob; Easo, Sajan; Eby, Joshua; Hogan, Jason M.; Elertas, Gedminas; Ellis, John; Evans, David; Examilioti, Pandora; Fadeev, Pavel; Fanì, Mattia; Fassi, Farida; Fattori, Marco; Fedderke, Michael A.; Felea, Daniel; Holst, Bodil; Feng, Chen-Hao; Ferreras, Jorge; Flack, Robert; Flambaum, Victor V.; Forsberg, René; Fromhold, Mark; Gaaloul, Naceur; Garraway, Barry M.; Georgousi, Maria; Geraci, Andrew; Holynski, Michael; Gibble, Kurt; Gibson, Valerie; Gill, Patrick; Giudice, Gian F.; Goldwin, Jon; Gould, Oliver; Grachov, Oleg; Graham, Peter W.; Grasso, Dario; Griffin, Paul F.; Israelsson, Ulf; Guerlin, Christine; Gündoğan, Mustafa; Gupta, Ratnesh K.; Jeglič, Peter; Jetzer, Philippe; Juzeliūnas, Gediminas; Kaltenbaek, Rainer; Kamenik, Jernej F.; Kehagias, Alex; Bass, Steven; Kirova, Teodora; Kiss-Toth, Marton; Koke, Sebastian; Kolkowitz, Shimon; Kornakov, Georgy; Kovachy, Tim; Krutzik, Markus; Kumar, Mukesh; Kumar, Pradeep; Lämmerzahl, Claus; Bassi, Angelo; Landsberg, Greg; Le Poncin-Lafitte, Christophe; Leibrandt, David R.; Lévèque, Thomas; Lewicki, Marek; Li, Rui; Lipniacka, Anna; Lisdat, Christian; Liu, Mia; Lopez-Gonzalez, J. L.; Battelier, Baptiste; Loriani, Sina; Louko, Jorma; Luciano, Giuseppe Gaetano; Lundblad, Nathan; Maddox, Steve; Mahmoud, M. A.; Maleknejad, Azadeh; March-Russell, John; Massonnet, Didier; McCabe, Christopher; Baynham, Charles F. A.; Meister, Matthias; Mežnaršič, Tadej; Micalizio, Salvatore; Migliaccio, Federica; Millington, Peter; Milosevic, Milan; Mitchell, Jeremiah; Morley, Gavin W.; Müller, Jürgen; Murphy, Eamonn; Beaufils, Quentin; Müstecaplıoğlu, Özgür E.; O’Shea, Val; Oi, Daniel K. L.; Olson, Judith; Pal, Debapriya; Papazoglou, Dimitris G.; Pasatembou, Elizabeth; Paternostro, Mauro; Pawlowski, Krzysztof; Pelucchi, Emanuele; Belić, Aleksandar; Pereira dos Santos, Franck; Peters, Achim; Pikovski, Igor; Pilaftsis, Apostolos; Pinto, Alexandra; Prevedelli, Marco; Puthiya-Veettil, Vishnupriya; Quenby, John; Rafelski, Johann; Rasel, Ernst M.; Bergé, Joel; Ravensbergen, CornelisWe summarise the discussions at a virtual Community Workshop on Cold Atoms in Space concerning the status of cold atom technologies, the prospective scientific and societal opportunities offered by their deployment in space, and the developments needed before cold atoms could be operated in space. The cold atom technologies discussed include atomic clocks, quantum gravimeters and accelerometers, and atom interferometers. Prospective applications include metrology, geodesy and measurement of terrestrial mass change due to, e.g., climate change, and fundamental science experiments such as tests of the equivalence principle, searches for dark matter, measurements of gravitational waves and tests of quantum mechanics. We review the current status of cold atom technologies and outline the requirements for their space qualification, including the development paths and the corresponding technical milestones, and identifying possible pathfinder missions to pave the way for missions to exploit the full potential of cold atoms in space. Finally, we present a first draft of a possible road-map for achieving these goals, that we propose for discussion by the interested cold atom, Earth Observation, fundamental physics and other prospective scientific user communities, together with the European Space Agency (ESA) and national space and research funding agencies.
- ItemAll options, not silver bullets, needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C: a scenario appraisal(Bristol : IOP Publ., 2021-5-25) Warszawski, Lila; Kriegler, Elmar; Lenton, Timothy M.; Gaffney, Owen; Jacob, Daniela; Klingenfeld, Daniel; Koide, Ryu; Máñez Costa, María; Messner, Dirk; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Schlosser, Peter; Takeuchi, Kazuhiko; Van Der Leeuw, Sander; Whiteman, Gail; Rockström, JohanClimate science provides strong evidence of the necessity of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. The IPCC 1.5 °C special report (SR1.5) presents 414 emissions scenarios modelled for the report, of which around 50 are classified as '1.5 °C scenarios', with no or low temperature overshoot. These emission scenarios differ in their reliance on individual mitigation levers, including reduction of global energy demand, decarbonisation of energy production, development of land-management systems, and the pace and scale of deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. The reliance of 1.5 °C scenarios on these levers needs to be critically assessed in light of the potentials of the relevant technologies and roll-out plans. We use a set of five parameters to bundle and characterise the mitigation levers employed in the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios. For each of these levers, we draw on the literature to define 'medium' and 'high' upper bounds that delineate between their 'reasonable', 'challenging' and 'speculative' use by mid century. We do not find any 1.5 °C scenarios that stay within all medium upper bounds on the five mitigation levers. Scenarios most frequently 'over use' CDR with geological storage as a mitigation lever, whilst reductions of energy demand and carbon intensity of energy production are 'over used' less frequently. If we allow mitigation levers to be employed up to our high upper bounds, we are left with 22 of the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios with no or low overshoot. The scenarios that fulfil these criteria are characterised by greater coverage of the available mitigation levers than those scenarios that exceed at least one of the high upper bounds. When excluding the two scenarios that exceed the SR1.5 carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, this subset of 1.5 °C scenarios shows a range of 15–22 Gt CO2 (16–22 Gt CO2 interquartile range) for emissions in 2030. For the year of reaching net zero CO2 emissions the range is 2039–2061 (2049–2057 interquartile range).
- ItemClimate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios(Bristol : IOP Publ., 2021-2-10) Gädeke, Anne; Langer, Moritz; Boike, Julia; Burke, Eleanor J.; Chang, Jinfeng; Head, Melissa; Reyer, Christopher P.O.; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Thiery, Wim; Thonicke, KirstenAmplified climate warming has led to permafrost degradation and a shortening of the winter season, both impacting cost-effective overland travel across the Arctic. Here we use, for the first time, four state-of-the-art Land Surface Models that explicitly consider ground freezing states, forced by a subset of bias-adjusted CMIP5 General Circulation Models to estimate the impact of different global warming scenarios (RCP2.6, 6.0, 8.5) on two modes of winter travel: overland travel days (OTDs) and ice road construction days (IRCDs). We show that OTDs decrease by on average −13% in the near future (2021–2050) and between −15% (RCP2.6) and −40% (RCP8.5) in the far future (2070–2099) compared to the reference period (1971–2000) when 173 d yr−1 are simulated across the Pan-Arctic. Regionally, we identified Eastern Siberia (Sakha (Yakutia), Khabarovsk Krai, Magadan Oblast) to be most resilient to climate change, while Alaska (USA), the Northwestern Russian regions (Yamalo, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Nenets, Komi, Khanty-Mansiy), Northern Europe and Chukotka are highly vulnerable. The change in OTDs is most pronounced during the shoulder season, particularly in autumn. The IRCDs reduce on average twice as much as the OTDs under all climate scenarios resulting in shorter operational duration. The results of the low-end global warming scenario (RCP2.6) emphasize that stringent climate mitigation policies have the potential to reduce the impact of climate change on winter mobility in the second half of the 21st century. Nevertheless, even under RCP2.6, our results suggest substantially reduced winter overland travel implying a severe threat to livelihoods of remote communities and increasing costs for resource exploration and transport across the Arctic.
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