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- ItemEvaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100(Katlenburg-Lindau : European Geosciences Union, 2021) Keeble, James; Hassler, Birgit; Banerjee, Antara; Checa-Garcia, Ramiro; Chiodo, Gabriel; Davis, Sean; Eyring, Veronika; Griffiths, Paul T.; Morgenstern, Olaf; Nowack, Peer; Zeng, Guang; Zhang, Jiankai; Bodeker, Greg; Burrows, Susannah; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Cugnet, David; Danek, Christopher; Deushi, Makoto; Horowitz, Larry W.; Kubin, Anne; Li, Lijuan; Lohmann, Gerrit; Michou, Martine; Mills, Michael J.; Nabat, Pierre; Olivié, Dirk; Park, Sungsu; Seland, Øyvind; Stoll, Jens; Wieners, Karl-Hermann; Wu, TongwenStratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system, and past and future changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. Here, we evaluate long-term changes in these species from the pre-industrial period (1850) to the end of the 21st century in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models under a range of future emissions scenarios. There is good agreement between the CMIP multi-model mean and observations for total column ozone (TCO), although there is substantial variation between the individual CMIP6 models. For the CMIP6 multi-model mean, global mean TCO has increased from ∼300 DU in 1850 to ∼ 305 DU in 1960, before rapidly declining in the 1970s and 1980s following the use and emission of halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). TCO is projected to return to 1960s values by the middle of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios TCO values are projected to be ∼ 10 DU higher than the 1960s values by 2100. However, under the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-1.6 scenarios, TCO is not projected to return to the 1960s values despite reductions in halogenated ODSs due to decreases in tropospheric ozone mixing ratios. This global pattern is similar to regional patterns, except in the tropics where TCO under most scenarios is not projected to return to 1960s values, either through reductions in tropospheric ozone under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, or through reductions in lower stratospheric ozone resulting from an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation under other Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). In contrast to TCO, there is poorer agreement between the CMIP6 multi-model mean and observed lower stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios, with the CMIP6 multi-model mean underestimating observed water vapour mixing ratios by ∼ 0.5 ppmv at 70 hPa. CMIP6 multi-model mean stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios in the tropical lower stratosphere have increased by ∼ 0.5 ppmv from the pre-industrial to the present-day period and are projected to increase further by the end of the 21st century. The largest increases (∼ 2 ppmv) are simulated under the future scenarios with the highest assumed forcing pathway (e.g. SSP5-8.5). Tropical lower stratospheric water vapour, and to a lesser extent TCO, shows large variations following explosive volcanic eruptions. © Author(s) 2021.
- ItemNOy production, ozone loss and changes in net radiative heating due to energetic particle precipitation in 2002–2010(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2018-1-29) Sinnhuber, Miriam; Berger, Uwe; Funke, Bernd; Nieder, Holger; Reddmann, Thomas; Stiller, Gabriele; Versick, Stefan; von Clarmann, Thomas; Wissing, Jan MaikWe analyze the impact of energetic particle precipitation on the stratospheric nitrogen budget, ozone abundances and net radiative heating using results from three global chemistry-climate models considering solar protons and geomagnetic forcing due to auroral or radiation belt electrons. Two of the models cover the atmosphere up to the lower thermosphere, the source region of auroral NO production. Geomagnetic forcing in these models is included by prescribed ionization rates. One model reaches up to about 80 km, and geomagnetic forcing is included by applying an upper boundary condition of auroral NO mixing ratios parameterized as a function of geomagnetic activity. Despite the differences in the implementation of the particle effect, the resulting modeled NOy in the upper mesosphere agrees well between all three models, demonstrating that geomagnetic forcing is represented in a consistent way either by prescribing ionization rates or by prescribing NOy at the model top. Compared with observations of stratospheric and mesospheric NOy from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) instrument for the years 2002–2010, the model simulations reproduce the spatial pattern and temporal evolution well. However, after strong sudden stratospheric warmings, particle-induced NOy is underestimated by both high-top models, and after the solar proton event in October 2003, NOy is overestimated by all three models. Model results indicate that the large solar proton event in October 2003 contributed about 1–2 Gmol (109 mol) NOy per hemisphere to the stratospheric NOy budget, while downwelling of auroral NOx from the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere contributes up to 4 Gmol NOy. Accumulation over time leads to a constant particle-induced background of about 0.5–1 Gmol per hemisphere during solar minimum, and up to 2 Gmol per hemisphere during solar maximum. Related negative anomalies of ozone are predicted by the models in nearly every polar winter, ranging from 10–50 % during solar maximum to 2–10 % during solar minimum. Ozone loss continues throughout polar summer after strong solar proton events in the Southern Hemisphere and after large sudden stratospheric warmings in the Northern Hemisphere. During mid-winter, the ozone loss causes a reduction of the infrared radiative cooling, i.e., a positive change of the net radiative heating (effective warming), in agreement with analyses of geomagnetic forcing in stratospheric temperatures which show a warming in the late winter upper stratosphere. In late winter and spring, the sign of the net radiative heating change turns to negative (effective cooling). This spring-time cooling lasts well into summer and continues until the following autumn after large solar proton events in the Southern Hemisphere, and after sudden stratospheric warmings in the Northern Hemisphere.