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- ItemDevelopment of structural correlations and synchronization from adaptive rewiring in networks of Kuramoto oscillators(Woodbury, NY : American Institute of Physics, 2017) Papadopoulos, Lia; Kim, Jason Z.; Kurths, Jürgen; Bassett, Danielle S.Synchronization of non-identical oscillators coupled through complex networks is an important example of collective behavior, and it is interesting to ask how the structural organization of network interactions influences this process. Several studies have explored and uncovered optimal topologies for synchronization by making purposeful alterations to a network. On the other hand, the connectivity patterns of many natural systems are often not static, but are rather modulated over time according to their dynamics. However, this co-evolution and the extent to which the dynamics of the individual units can shape the organization of the network itself are less well understood. Here, we study initially randomly connected but locally adaptive networks of Kuramoto oscillators. In particular, the system employs a co-evolutionary rewiring strategy that depends only on the instantaneous, pairwise phase differences of neighboring oscillators, and that conserves the total number of edges, allowing the effects of local reorganization to be isolated. We find that a simple rule-which preserves connections between more outof- phase oscillators while rewiring connections between more in-phase oscillators-can cause initially disordered networks to organize into more structured topologies that support enhanced synchronization dynamics. We examine how this process unfolds over time, finding a dependence on the intrinsic frequencies of the oscillators, the global coupling, and the network density, in terms of how the adaptive mechanism reorganizes the network and influences the dynamics. Importantly, for large enough coupling and after sufficient adaptation, the resulting networks exhibit interesting characteristics, including degree-frequency and frequency-neighbor frequency correlations. These properties have previously been associated with optimal synchronization or explosive transitions in which the networks were constructed using global information. On the contrary, by considering a time-dependent interplay between structure and dynamics, this work offers a mechanism through which emergent phenomena and organization can arise in complex systems utilizing local rules.
- ItemImplications of possible interpretations of ‘greenhouse gas balance’ in the Paris Agreement(London : The Royal Society, 2018) Fuglestvedt, J.; Rogelj, J.; Millar, R. J.; Allen, M.; Boucher, O.; Cain, M.; Forster, P. M.; Kriegler, E.; Shindell, D.The main goal of the Paris Agreement as stated in Article 2 is ‘holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C’. Article 4 points to this long-term goal and the need to achieve ‘balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases'. This statement on ‘greenhouse gas balance’ is subject to interpretation, and clarifications are needed to make it operational for national and international climate policies. We study possible interpretations from a scientific perspective and analyse their climatic implications. We clarify how the implications for individual gases depend on the metrics used to relate them. We show that the way in which balance is interpreted, achieved and maintained influences temperature outcomes. Achieving and maintaining net-zero CO2-equivalent emissions conventionally calculated using GWP100 (100-year global warming potential) and including substantial positive contributions from short-lived climate-forcing agents such as methane would result in a sustained decline in global temperature. A modified approach to the use of GWP100 (that equates constant emissions of short-lived climate forcers with zero sustained emission of CO2) results in global temperatures remaining approximately constant once net-zero CO2-equivalent emissions are achieved and maintained. Our paper provides policymakers with an overview of issues and choices that are important to determine which approach is most appropriate in the context of the Paris Agreement.
- ItemClimate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C(London : The Royal Society, 2018) Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.; Hirsch, Annette L.; Vogel, Martha M.; Brovkin, Victor; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Schaller, Nathalie; Boysen, Lena; Calvin, Katherine V.; Doelman, Jonathan; Greve, Peter; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Mitchell, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Sillmann, Jana; Stehfest, ElkeThis article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.
- ItemApplication of optical coherence tomography for in vivo monitoring of the meningeal lymphatic vessels during opening of blood–brain barrier: mechanisms of brain clearing(Bellingham, Wash. : SPIE, 2017) Semyachkina-Glushkovskaya, Oxana; Abdurashitov, Arkady; Dubrovsky, Alexander; Bragin, Denis; Bragina, Olga; Shushunova, Natalia; Maslyakova, Galina; Navolokin, Nikita; Bucharskaya, Alla; Tuchind, Valery; Kurths, Jürgen; Shirokov, AlexanderThe meningeal lymphatic vessels were discovered 2 years ago as the drainage system involved in the mechanisms underlying the clearance of waste products from the brain. The blood–brain barrier (BBB) is a gatekeeper that strongly controls the movement of different molecules from the blood into the brain. We know the scenarios during the opening of the BBB, but there is extremely limited information on how the brain clears the substances that cross the BBB. Here, using the model of sound-induced opening of the BBB, we clearly show how the brain clears dextran after it crosses the BBB via the meningeal lymphatic vessels. We first demonstrate successful application of optical coherence tomography (OCT) for imaging of the lymphatic vessels in the meninges after opening of the BBB, which might be a new useful strategy for noninvasive analysis of lymphatic drainage in daily clinical practice. Also, we give information about the depth and size of the meningeal lymphatic vessels in mice. These new fundamental data with the applied focus on the OCT shed light on the mechanisms of brain clearance and the role of lymphatic drainage in these processes that could serve as an informative platform for a development of therapy and diagnostics of diseases associated with injuries of the BBB such as stroke, brain trauma, glioma, depression, or Alzheimer disease.
- ItemBilateral Trade Agreements and the Interconnectedness of Global Trade(Lausanne : Frontiers Media, 2018) Maluck, Julian; Glanemann, Nicole; Donner, Reik V.Over the last decades, bilateral trade agreements (BTAs) have increased considerably in number and economic relevance. Notably, such agreements substantially affect global trade, since the reorganization of flows of goods and services has prominent impacts on the contracting countries' economies, but also on other parties that are (directly or indirectly) engaged in trade with these countries. Here, we empirically study the effect of BTAs on the input-output linkages between the contractual parties' national economic sectors by defining a new measure of Trade Interconnectedness (TI), which describes the relative importance of direct and indirect production linkages between the two countries in the international trade network. By analyzing its time evolution for each pair of trade agreement partners, we demonstrate that while most BTAs are succeeded by an increase in TI between the contractors, there are some notable exceptions. In particular, comparing the trade profiles of China and the United States (US), we find indications that both countries have been pursuing fundamentally different objectives and strategies related to the negotiation of BTAs.
- ItemThe different stratospheric influence on cold-extremes in Eurasia and North America(London : Springer Nature, 2018) Kretschmer, Marlene; Cohen, Judah; Matthias, Vivien; Runge, Jakob; Coumou, DimThe stratospheric polar vortex can influence the tropospheric circulation and thereby winter weather in the mid-latitudes. Weak vortex states, often associated with sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW), have been shown to increase the risk of cold-spells especially over Eurasia, but its role for North American winters is less clear. Using cluster analysis, we show that there are two dominant patterns of increased polar cap heights in the lower stratosphere. Both patterns represent a weak polar vortex but they are associated with different wave mechanisms and different regional tropospheric impacts. The first pattern is zonally symmetric and associated with absorbed upward-propagating wave activity, leading to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and cold-air outbreaks over northern Eurasia. This coupling mechanism is well-documented in the literature and is consistent with the downward migration of the northern annular mode (NAM). The second pattern is zonally asymmetric and linked to downward reflected planetary waves over Canada followed by a negative phase of the Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) and cold-spells in Central Canada and the Great Lakes region. Causal effect network (CEN) analyses confirm the atmospheric pathways associated with this asymmetric pattern. Moreover, our findings suggest the reflective mechanism to be sensitive to the exact region of upward wave-activity fluxes and to be state-dependent on the strength of the vortex. Identifying the causal pathways that operate on weekly to monthly timescales can pave the way for improved sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting of cold spells in the mid-latitudes.
- ItemExplosive death induced by mean–field diffusion in identical oscillators([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2017) Verma, Umesh Kumar; Sharma, Amit; Kamal, Neeraj Kumar; Kurths, Jürgen; Shrimali, Manish DevWe report the occurrence of an explosive death transition for the first time in an ensemble of identical limit cycle and chaotic oscillators coupled via mean–field diffusion. In both systems, the variation of the normalized amplitude with the coupling strength exhibits an abrupt and irreversible transition to death state from an oscillatory state and this first order phase transition to death state is independent of the size of the system. This transition is quite general and has been found in all the coupled systems where in–phase oscillations co–exist with a coupling dependent homogeneous steady state. The backward transition point for this phase transition has been calculated using linear stability analysis which is in complete agreement with the numerics.
- ItemErratum: Sample-based approach can outperform the classical dynamical analysis - experimental confirmation of the basin stability method([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2017) Brzeski, P.; Wojewoda, J.; Kapitaniak, T.; Kurths, J.; Perlikowski, P.The original version of this Article contained a typographical error in the spelling of the author T. Kapitaniak, which was incorrectly given as T. Kapitaniakenglish. This has now been corrected in the PDF and HTML versions of the Article.