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    The role of spatial variability of soil moisture for modelling surface runoff generation at the small catchment scale
    (Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 1999) Bronstert, A.; Bárdossy, A.
    The effects of spatial variability of soil moisture on surface runoff generation at the hillslope and small catchment scale were studied. The model used is physically based accounting for the relevant hydrological processes during storm runoff periods. A case study investigating the effects on runoff generation in a loessy small catchment is presented. In this study the storm rainfall response was modelled using different distribution patterns of the initial soil moisture content, and where different initial soil moisture fields were generated by using both interpolation methods and stochastic simulation methods. It is shown that spatial variability of pre-event soil moisture results in an increase in runoff production compared to averaged values. It is of particular importance to note the combined organised/stochastic variability features, that is, the superposition of systematic and random features of soil moisture dominate local generation of surface runoff. In general one can say that the stronger the organised heterogeneity is, the more important is an adequate and refined interpolation technique which is capable of accounting for complex spatial trends. The effects of soil moisture variations are of particular importance for storms, where the produced runoff volume is just a small fraction of precipitation.
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    Cascade-based disaggregation of continuous rainfall time series: The influence of climate
    (Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2001) Güntner, A.; Olsson, J.; Calver, A.; Gannon, B.
    Rainfall data of high temporal resolution are required in a multitude of hydrological applications. In the present paper, a temporal rainfall disaggregation model is applied to convert daily time series into an hourly resolution. The model is based on the principles of random multiplicative cascade processes. Its parameters are dependent on (1) the volume and (2) the position in the rainfall sequence of the time interval with rainfall to be disaggregated. The aim is to compare parameters and performance of the model between two contrasting climates with different rainfall generating mechanisms, a semi-arid tropical (Brazil) and a temperate (United Kingdom) climate. In the range of time scales studied, the scale-invariant assumptions of the model are approximately equally well fulfilled for both climates. The model parameters differ distinctly between climates, reflecting the dominance of convective processes in the Brazilian rainfall and of advective processes associated with frontal passages in the British rainfall. In the British case, the parameters exhibit a slight seasonal variation consistent with the higher frequency of convection during summer. When applied for disaggregation, the model reproduces a range of hourly rainfall characteristics with a high accuracy in both climates. However, the overall model performance is somewhat better for the semi-arid tropical rainfall. In particular, extreme rainfall in the UK is overestimated whereas extreme rainfall in Brazil is well reproduced. Transferability of parameters in time is associated with larger uncertainty in the semi-arid climate due to its higher interannual variability and lower percentage of rainy intervals. For parameter transferability in space, no restrictions are found between the Brazilian stations whereas in the UK regional differences are more pronounced. The overall high accuracy of disaggregated data supports the potential usefulness of the model in hydrological applications.
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    Reduction of biosphere life span as a consequence of geodynamics
    (Abingdon : Taylor and Francis Ltd., 2000) Franck, S.; Block, A.; Von Bloh, W.; Bounama, C.; Schellnhuber, H.J.; Svirezhev, Y.
    The long-term co-evolution of the geosphere-biosphere complex from the Proterozoic up to 1.5 billion years into the planet's future is investigated using a conceptual earth system model including the basic geodynamic processes. The model focusses on the global carbon cycles as mediated by life and driven by increasing solar luminosity and plate tectonics. The main CO2 sink, the weathering of silicates, is calculated as a function of biologic activity, global run-off and continental growth. The main CO2 source, tectonic processes dominated by sea-floor spreading, is determined using a novel semi-empirical scheme. Thus, a geodynamic extension of previous geostatic approaches can be achieved. As a major result of extensive numerical investigations, the 'terrestrial life corridor', i.e., the biogeophysical domain supporting a photosynthesis-based ecosphere in the planetary past and in the future, can be identified. Our findings imply, in particular, that the remaining life-span of the biosphere is considerably shorter (by a few hundred million years) than the value computed with geostatic models by other groups. The 'habitable-zone concept' is also revisited, revealing the band of orbital distances from the sun warranting earth-like conditions. It turns out that this habitable zone collapses completely in some 1.4 billion years from now as a consequence of geodynamics.
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    Self-stabilization of the biosphere under global change: A tutorial geophysiological approach
    (Abingdon : Taylor and Francis Ltd., 1997) Von Bloh, W.; Block, A.; Schellnhuber, H.J.
    A 2-dimensional extension of the simple Lovelock-Watson model for geosphere-biosphere feed-back is introduced and discussed. Our enriched version also takes into account various pertinent physical, biological, and civilisatory processes like lateral heat transport, species competition, mutation, germination, and habitat fragmentation. The model is used as a caricature of the Earth System, which allows potential response mechanisms of the biosphere to environmental stress (as generated, e.g., by global warming or anthropogenic land-cover change) to be investigated qualitatively. Based on a cellular automaton representation of the system, extensive calculations are performed. They reveal a number of remarkable and, partially, counter-intuitive phenomena: our model biosphere is able to control almost perfectly the geophysical conditions for its own existence. If the environmental stress exceeds certain thresholds, however, life breaks down on the artificial planet via a first-order phase transition, i.e., in a non-reversible way. There is a close connection between self-stabilizing capacity, biodiversity and geometry of habitat fragmentation. It turns out, in particular, that unrestricted Darwinian competition, which reduces the number of co-existing species, is the best guarantee for survival of the artificial ecosphere as a whole.
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    Polynyas in a high-resolution dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model and their parameterization using flux models
    (Abingdon : Taylor and Francis Ltd., 2001) Bjornsson, H.; Willmott, A.J.; Mysak, L.A.; Morales Maqueda, M.A.
    This paper presents an analysis of the solutions for a steady state latent heat polynya generated by an applied wind stress acting over a semi-enclosed channel using: (a) a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model, and (b) a steady state flux model. We examine what processes in the sea ice model are responsible for the maintenance of the polynya and how sensitive the results are to the choice of rheological parameters. We find that when the ice is driven onshore by an applied wind stress, a consolidated ice pack forms downwind of a zone of strong convergence in the ice velocities. The build-up of internal stresses within the consolidated ice pack becomes a crucial factor in the formation of this zone and results in a distinct polynya edge. Furthermore, within the ice pack the across-channel ice velocity varies with the across-channel distance. It is demonstrated that provided this velocity is well represented, the steady state polynya flux model solutions are in close agreement with those of the sea ice model. Experiments with the sea ice model also show that the polynya shape and area are insensitive to (a) the sea ice rheology; (b) the imposition of either free- slip or no-slip boundary conditions. These findings are used in the development of a simplified model of the consolidated ice pack dynamics, the output of which is then compared with the sea ice model results. Finally, we discuss the relevance of this study for the modelling of the North Water Polynya in northern Baffin Bay.
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    Wirkung von Klimaänderungen auf Vegetation: Entwicklung eines allgemeinen Modells für die Klimafolgenforschung : Abschlußbericht
    (Potsdam : Potsdam-Institut für Klimaforschung, 1999) Cramer, Wolfgang
    [no abstract available]
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    Integrierte Abschätzung von Klimaschutzstrategien : methodisch-naturwissenschaftliche Aspekte ; Abschlussbericht, Dezember 2000 ; ICLIPS
    (Potsdam : Potsdam-Institut für Klimaforschung, 2001) Toth, Ferenc; Bruckner, Thomas; Füssel, Hans-Martin
    [no abstract available]
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    Untersuchungen zur Verwendung von Ergebnissen verschiedener Klimamodelltypen als Antrieb in Ökosystemmodellen : Abschlußbericht zum Forschungsprojekt
    (Hannover : Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB), 2000) Werner, P.C.; Bürger, G.; Gerstengarbe, F.-W.
    [no abstract available]
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    Europäische Ökosysteme 1989 - 1998: Quantitative Analyse unter Verwendung von Satelliten-Fernerkundungsdaten - Teilprojekt Modelle : Schlußbericht
    (Hannover : Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB), 2001) Cramer, Wolfgang; Lucht, Wolfgang; Bondeau, Alberte
    [no abstract available]