1222 results
Search Results
Now showing 1 - 10 of 1222
- ItemDIVA: An iterative method for building modular integrated models(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2005) Hinkel, J.Integrated modelling of global environmental change impacts faces the challenge that knowledge from the domains of Natural and Social Science must be integrated. This is complicated by often incompatible terminology and the fact that the interactions between subsystems are usually not fully understood at the start of the project. While a modular modelling approach is necessary to address these challenges, it is not sufficient. The remaining question is how the modelled system shall be cut down into modules. While no generic answer can be given to this question, communication tools can be provided to support the process of modularisation and integration. Along those lines of thought a method for building modular integrated models was developed within the EU project DINAS-COAST and applied to construct a first model, which assesses the vulnerability of the world’s coasts to climate change and sea-level-rise. The method focuses on the development of a common language and offers domain experts an intuitive interface to code their knowledge in form of modules. However, instead of rigorously defining interfaces between the subsystems at the project’s beginning, an iterative model development process is defined and tools to facilitate communication and collaboration are provided. This flexible approach has the advantage that increased understanding about subsystem interactions, gained during the project’s lifetime, can immediately be reflected in the model.
- ItemSporadic Ca and Ca+ layers at mid-latitudes: Simultaneous observations and implications for their formation(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2001) Gerding, M.; Alpers, M.; Höffner, J.; von Zahn, U.We report on the observations of 188 sporadic layers of either Ca atoms and/or Ca ions that we have observed during 112 nights of lidar soundings of Ca, and 58 nights of Ca+ soundings, at Kühlungsborn, Germany (54° N, 12° E). The Ca+ soundings have been performed simultaneously and in a common volume with the Ca soundings by two separate lidars. Correlations between sporadic neutral and ionized metal layers are demonstrated through four case studies. A systematic study of the variations of occurrence of sporadic Ca and Ca+ layers reveals that neutral and ionized Ca layers are not as closely correlated as expected earlier: (a) The altitude distribution shows the simultaneous occurrence of both sporadic Ca and Ca+ layers to be most likely only in the narrow altitude range between 90 and 95 km. Above that region, in the lower thermosphere, the sporadic ion layers are much more frequent than atom layers. Below 90 km only very few sporadic layers have been observed; (b) The seasonal variation of sporadic Ca layers exhibits a minimum of occurrence in summer, while sporadic Ca+ layers do not show a significant seasonal variation (only the dense Ca+ layers appear to have a maximum in summer). At mid-latitudes sporadic Ca layers are more frequent than sporadic layers of other atmospheric metals like Na or K. For the explanation of our observations new formation mechanisms are discussed.
- ItemObservation of an unusual mid-stratospheric aerosol layer in the Arctic: Possible sources and implications for polar vortex dynamics(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2003) Gerding, M.; Baumgarten, G.; Blum, U.; Thayer, J.P.; Fricke, K.-H.; Neuber, R.; Fiedler, J.By the beginning of winter 2000/2001, a mysterious stratospheric aerosol layer had been detected by four different Arctic lidar stations. The aerosol layer was observed first on 16 November 2000, at an altitude of about 38 km near Søndre Strømfjord, Greenland (67° N, 51° W) and on 19 November 2000, near Andenes, Norway (69° N, 16° E). Subsequently, in early December 2000, the aerosol layer was observed near Kiruna, Sweden (68° N, 21° E) and Ny-Ålesund, Spitsbergen (79° N, 12° E). No mid-latitude lidar station observed the presence of aerosols in this altitude region. The layer persisted throughout the winter 2000/2001, at least up to 12 February 2001. In November 2000, the backscatter ratio at a wavelength of 532 nm was up to 1.1, with a FWHM of about 2.5 km. By early February 2001, the layer had sedimented from an altitude of 38 km to about 26 km. Measurements at several wavelengths by the ALOMAR and Koldewey lidars indicate the particle size was between 30 and 50 nm. Depolarisation measurements reveal that the particles in the layer are aspherical, hence solid. In the mid-stratosphere, the ambient atmospheric temperature was too high to support in situ formation or existence of cloud particles consisting of ice or an acid-water solution. Furthermore, in the year 2000 there was no volcanic eruption, which could have injected aerosols into the upper stratosphere. Therefore, other origins of the aerosol, such as meteoroid debris, condensed rocket fuel, or aerosols produced under the influence of charged solar particles, will be discussed in the paper. Trajectory calculations illustrate the path of the aerosol cloud within the polar vortex and are used to link the observations at the different lidar sites. From the descent rate of the layer and particle sedimentation rates, the mean down-ward motion of air within the polar vortex was estimated to be about 124 m/d between 35 and 30 km, with higher values at the edge of the vortex.
- ItemOn the longitudinal structure of the transient day-to-day variation of the semidiurnal tide in the mid-latitude lower thermosphere - I. Winter season(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2001) Merzlyakov, E.G.; Portnyagin, Yu.I.; Jacobi, C.; Mitchell, N.J.; Muller, H.G.; Manson, A.H.; Fachrutdinova, A.N.; Singer, W.; Hoffmann, P.The longitudinal structure of the day-to-day variations of semidiurnal tide amplitudes is analysed based on coordinated mesosphere/lower thermosphere wind measurements at several stations during three winter campaigns. Possible excitation sources of these variations are discussed. Special attention is given to a nonlinear interaction between the semidiurnal tide and the day-to-day mean wind variations. Data processing includes the S-transform analysis which takes into account transient behaviour of secondary waves. It is shown that strong tidal modulations appear during a stratospheric warming and may be caused by aperiodic mean wind variations during this event.
- ItemStudy of the tidal variations in mesospheric temperature at low and mid latitudes from WINDII and potassium lidar observations(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2004) Shepherd, M.; Fricke-Begemann, C.Zonal mean daytime temperatures from the Wind Imaging Interferometer (WINDII) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) and nightly temperatures from a potassium (K) lidar are employed in the study of the tidal variations in mesospheric temperature at low and mid latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. The analysis is applied to observations at 89 km height for winter solstice, December to February (DJF), at 55° N, and for May and November at 28° N. The WINDII results are based on observations from 1991 to 1997. The K-lidar observations for DJF at Kühlungsborn (54° N) were from 1996-1999, while those for May and November at Tenerife 28° N were from 1999. To avoid possible effects from year-to-year variability in the temperatures observed, as well as differences due to instrument calibration and observation periods, the mean temperature field is removed from the respective data sets, assuming that only tidal and planetary scale perturbations remain in the temperature residuals. The latter are then binned in 0.5 h periods and the individual data sets are fitted in a least-mean square sense to 12-h and 8-h harmonics, to infer semidiurnal and terdiurnal tidal parameters. Both the K-lidar and WINDII independently observed a strong semidiurnal tide in November, with amplitudes of 13 K and 7.4 K, respectively. Good agreement was also found in the tidal parameters derived from the two data sets for DJF and May. It was recognized that insufficient local time coverage of the two separate data sets could lead to an overestimation of the semidiurnal tidal amplitude. A combined ground-based/satellite data set with full diurnal local time coverage was created which was fitted to 24 h+ 12 h+8 h harmonics and a novel method applied to account for possible differences between the daytime and nighttime means. The results still yielded a strong semidiurnal tide in November at 28° N with an amplitude of 8.8 K which is twice the SD amplitude in May and DJF. The diurnal tidal parameters were practically the same at 28° N and 55° N, in November and DJF, respectively, with an amplitude of 6.5 K and peaking at ∼9h. The diurnal and semidiurnal amplitudes in May were about the same, 4 K, and 4.6 K, while the terdiurnal tide had the same amplitudes and phases in May and November at 28° N. Good agreement is found with other experimental data while models tend to underestimate the amplitudes.
- ItemAgents, Bayes, and Climatic Risks - a modular modelling approach(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2005) Haas, A.; Jaeger, C.When insurance firms, energy companies, governments, NGOs, and other agents strive to manage climatic risks, it is by no way clear what the aggregate outcome should and will be. As a framework for investigating this subject, we present the LAGOM model family. It is based on modules depicting learning social agents. For managing climate risks, our agents use second order probabilities and update them by means of a Bayesian mechanism while differing in priors and risk aversion. The interactions between these modules and the aggregate outcomes of their actions are implemented using further modules. The software system is implemented as a series of parallel processes using the CIAMn approach. It is possible to couple modules irrespective of the language they are written in, the operating system under which they are run, and the physical location of the machine
- ItemIntegrated analysis of water quality in a mesoscale lowland basin(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2005) Habeck, A.; Krysanova, V.; Hattermann, F.This article describes a modelling study on nitrogen transport from diffuse sources in the Nuthe catchment, representing a typical lowland region in the north-eastern Germany. Building on a hydrological validation performed in advance using the ecohydrological model SWIM, the nitrogen flows were simulated over a 20-year period (1981-2000). The relatively good quality of the input data, particularly for the years from 1993 to 2000, enabled the nitrogen flows to be reproduced sufficiently well, although modelling nutrient flows is always associated with a great deal of uncertainty. Subsequently, scenario calculations were carried out in order to investigate how nitrogen transport from the catchment could be further reduced. The selected scenario results with the greatest reduction of nitrogen washoff will briefly be presented in the paper.
- ItemThe contribution of sulphuric acid to atmospheric particle formation and growth: A comparison between boundary layers in Northern and Central Europe(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2005) Fiedler, V.; Dal Maso, M.; Boy, M.; Aufmhoff, H.; Hoffmann, J.; Schuck, T.; Birmili, W.; Hanke, M.; Uecker, J.; Arnold, F.; Kulmala, M.Atmospheric gaseous sulphuric acid was measured and its influence on particle formation and growth was investigated building on aerosol data. The measurements were part of the EU-project QUEST and took place at two different measurement sites in Northern and Central Europe (Hyytiälä, Finland, March-April 2003 and Heidelberg, Germany, March-April 2004). From a comprehensive data set including sulphuric acid, particle number size distributions and meteorological data, particle growth rates, particle formation rates and source rates of condensable vapors were inferred. Growth rates were determined in two different ways, from particle size distributions as well as from a so-called timeshift analysis. Moreover, correlations between sulphuric acid and particle number concentration between 3 and 6 nm were examined and the influence of air masses of different origin was investigated. Measured maximum concentrations of sulphuric acid were in the range from 1x106 to 16x106cm-3. The gaseous sulphuric acid lifetime with respect to condensation on aerosol particles ranged from 2 to 33min in Hyytiälä and from 0.5 to 8 min in Heidelberg. Most calculated values (growth rates, formation rates, vapor source rates) were considerably higher in Central Europe (Heidelberg), due to the more polluted air and higher preexistent aerosol concentrations. Close correlations between H2SO4 and nucleation mode particles (size range: 3-6 nm) were found on most days at both sites. The percentage contribution of sulphuric acid to particle growth was below 10% at both places and to initial growth below 20%. An air mass analysis indicated that at Heidelberg new particles were formed predominantly in air advected from southwesterly directions.
- ItemTemperature sensitivity of decomposition in relation to soil organic matter pools: Critique and outlook(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2005) Reichstein, M.; Kätterer, T.; Andrén, O.; Ciais, P.; Schulze, E.-D.; Cramer, W.; Papale, D.; Valentini, R.Knorr et al. (2005) concluded that soil organic carbon pools with longer turnover times are more sensitive to temperature. We show that this conclusion is equivocal, largely dependent on their specific selection of data and does not persist when the data set of Kätterer et al. (1998) is analysed in a more appropriate way. Further, we analyse how statistical properties of the model parameters may interfere with correlative analyses that relate the Q 10 of soil respiration with the basal rate, where the latter is taken as a proxy for soil organic matter quality. We demonstrate that negative parameter correlations between Qio-values and base respiration rates are statistically expected and not necessarily provide evidence for a higher temperature sensitivity of low quality soil organic matter. Consequently, we propose it is premature to conclude that stable soil carbon is more sensitive to temperature than labile carbon.
- ItemThree years of routine Raman lidar measurements of tropospheric aerosols: Backscattering, extinction, and residual layer height(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2002) Schneider, J.; Eixmann, R.We have performed a three-year series of routine lidar measurements at preselected times. The measurements were performed between 1 December 1997, and 30 November 2000, at Kühlungsborn, Germany (54°07′N, 11°46′E). Using a Rayleigh/Mie/Raman lidar system, we measured the aerosol backscatter coefficients at three wavelengths and the extinction coefficient at one wavelength. The present data analysis focuses on after-sunset Raman measurements obtained on cloud-free days. Aerosol backscatter profiles are available for altitudes above 100 m, while the majority of the extinction measurements has been restricted to heights above the residual layer. The residual layer shows an annual cycle with its maximum height in summer (2000 m) and minimum height in winter (850 m). The backscatter coefficients in the residual layer were found to be about 10 times higher than above. The mean aerosol optical depth above the residual layer and below 5 km is 0.3(±1.0) × 10-2 in summer, and 1.5(±1.0) × 10-2 in winter, which almost is negligible compared to values measured in during daytime in the planetary boundary layer. A cluster analysis of the backward trajectories yielded two major directions of air mass origin above the residual layer and 4 major directions inside. A marked difference between the aerosol properties dependent on the air mass origin could be found for air masses originating from the west and travelling at high wind speeds. Comparing the measured spectral dependence of the backscatter coefficients with data from the Global Aerosol Data Set, we found a general agreement, but only a few conclusions with respect to the aerosol type could be drawn due to the high variability of the measured backscatter coefficients.