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- ItemDIVA: An iterative method for building modular integrated models(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2005) Hinkel, J.Integrated modelling of global environmental change impacts faces the challenge that knowledge from the domains of Natural and Social Science must be integrated. This is complicated by often incompatible terminology and the fact that the interactions between subsystems are usually not fully understood at the start of the project. While a modular modelling approach is necessary to address these challenges, it is not sufficient. The remaining question is how the modelled system shall be cut down into modules. While no generic answer can be given to this question, communication tools can be provided to support the process of modularisation and integration. Along those lines of thought a method for building modular integrated models was developed within the EU project DINAS-COAST and applied to construct a first model, which assesses the vulnerability of the world’s coasts to climate change and sea-level-rise. The method focuses on the development of a common language and offers domain experts an intuitive interface to code their knowledge in form of modules. However, instead of rigorously defining interfaces between the subsystems at the project’s beginning, an iterative model development process is defined and tools to facilitate communication and collaboration are provided. This flexible approach has the advantage that increased understanding about subsystem interactions, gained during the project’s lifetime, can immediately be reflected in the model.
- ItemAgents, Bayes, and Climatic Risks - a modular modelling approach(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2005) Haas, A.; Jaeger, C.When insurance firms, energy companies, governments, NGOs, and other agents strive to manage climatic risks, it is by no way clear what the aggregate outcome should and will be. As a framework for investigating this subject, we present the LAGOM model family. It is based on modules depicting learning social agents. For managing climate risks, our agents use second order probabilities and update them by means of a Bayesian mechanism while differing in priors and risk aversion. The interactions between these modules and the aggregate outcomes of their actions are implemented using further modules. The software system is implemented as a series of parallel processes using the CIAMn approach. It is possible to couple modules irrespective of the language they are written in, the operating system under which they are run, and the physical location of the machine
- ItemIntegrated analysis of water quality in a mesoscale lowland basin(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2005) Habeck, A.; Krysanova, V.; Hattermann, F.This article describes a modelling study on nitrogen transport from diffuse sources in the Nuthe catchment, representing a typical lowland region in the north-eastern Germany. Building on a hydrological validation performed in advance using the ecohydrological model SWIM, the nitrogen flows were simulated over a 20-year period (1981-2000). The relatively good quality of the input data, particularly for the years from 1993 to 2000, enabled the nitrogen flows to be reproduced sufficiently well, although modelling nutrient flows is always associated with a great deal of uncertainty. Subsequently, scenario calculations were carried out in order to investigate how nitrogen transport from the catchment could be further reduced. The selected scenario results with the greatest reduction of nitrogen washoff will briefly be presented in the paper.
- ItemMALTE - Model to predict new aerosol formation in the lower troposphere(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2006) Boy, M.; Hellmuth, O.; Korhonen, H.; Nilsson, E.D.; ReVelle, D.; Turnipseed, A.; Arnold, F.; Kulmala, M.The manuscript presents a detailed description of the meteorological and chemical code of Malte – a model to predict new aerosol formation in the lower troposphere. The aerosol dynamics are achieved by the new developed UHMA (University of Helsinki Multicomponent Aerosol Model) code with kinetic limited nucleation as responsible mechanism to form new clusters. First results indicate that the model is able to predict the on- and offset of new particle formation as well as the total aerosol number concentrations that were in good agreement with the observations. Further, comparison of predicted and measured H2SO4 concentrations showed a satisfactory agreement. The simulation results indicated that at a certain transitional particle diameter (2–7 nm), organic molecules can begin to contribute significantly to the growth rate compared to sulphuric acid. At even larger particle sizes, organic molecules can dominate the growth rate on days with significant monoterpene concentrations. The intraday vertical evolution of newly formed clusters and particles in two different size ranges resulted in two maxima at the ground. These particles grow around noon to the detectable size range and agree well with measured vertical profiles.
- ItemColumnar modelling of nucleation burst evolution in the convective boundary layer - First results from a feasibility study, Part III: Preliminary results on physicochemical model performance using two "clean air mass" reference scenarios(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2006) Hellmuth, O.In Paper I of four papers, a revised columnar high-order model to investigate gas-aerosol-turbulence interactions in the convective boundary layer (CBL) was proposed. In Paper II, the model capability to predict first-, second- and third-order moments of meteorological variables in the CBL was demonstrated using available observational data. In the present Paper III, the high-order modelling concept is extended to sulphur and ammonia chemistry as well as to aerosol dynamics. Based on the previous CBL simulation, a feasibility study is performed using two "clean air mass" scenarios with an emission source at the ground but low aerosol background concentration. Such scenarios synoptically correspond to the advection of fresh post-frontal air in an anthropogenically influenced region. The aim is to evaluate the time-height evolution of ultrafine condensation nuclei (UCNs) and to elucidate the interactions between meteorological and physicochemical variables in a CBL column. The scenarios differ in the treatment of new particle formation (NPF), whereas homogeneous nucleation according to the classical nucleation theory (CNT) is considered. The first scenario considers nucleation of a binary system consisting of water vapour and sulphuric acid (H2SO4) vapour, the second one nucleation of a ternary system additionally involving ammonia (NH3). Here, the two synthetic scenarios are discussed in detail, whereas special attention is payed to the role of turbulence in the formation of the typical UCN burst behaviour, that can often be observed in the surface layer. The intercomparison of the two scenarios reveals large differences in the evolution of the UCN number concentration in the surface layer as well as in the time-height cross-sections of first-order moments and double correlation terms. Although in both cases the occurrence of NPF bursts could be simulated, the burst characteristics and genesis of the bursts are completely different. It is demonstrated, that observations from the surface layer alone are not conclusive to elucidate the origin of newly formed particles. This is also true with respect to the interpretation of box modelling studies. The binary and ternary NPF bursts observed in the surface layer differ with respect to burst amplitude and phase. New particles simulated in the binary scenario are formed in the forenoon in the upper part of the growing CBL, followed by turbulence-induced top-down transport. Hence, with respect to the burst observation site in the surface layer, new particles are formed ex situ. In opposite to this, the ternary case reveals a much more complex pattern. Here, NPF is initiated in the early morning hours in the surface layer, when temperature (T) is low and relative humidity (RH), sulphur dioxide (SO2) and NH3 concentrations are high, hence new particles are formed in situ. Shortly after that, ex situ NPF in the free troposphere sets in, followed by entrainment and top-down diffusion of newly formed particles into the surface layer. Altogether, these processes mainly contribute to the formation of a strong burst in the morning hours in the ternary scenario. While the time-height cross-section of the binary nucleation rate resembles a "blob"-like evolution pattern, the ternary one resembles a "sucking tube"-like pattern. The time-height cross-sections of the flux pattern and double correlations could be plausibly interpreted in terms of CBL turbulence and entrainment/detrainment processes both in the binary and in the ternary case. Although the present approach is a pure conceptual one, it shows the feasibility to simulate gas-aerosol-turbulence interactions in the CBL. Prior to a dedicated verification/validation study, further attempts are necessary to consider a more advanced description of the formation and activation of thermodynamically stable clusters according to modern concepts proposed by Kulmala et al. (2000), Kulmala (2003) and Kulmala et al. (2004a).
- ItemColumnar modelling of nucleation burst evolution in the convective boundary layer - First results from a feasibility study, Part II: Meteorological characterisation(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2006) Hellmuth, O.While in Paper I of four papers a revised columnar high-order modelling approach to investigate gas-aerosol-turbulence interactions in the convective boundary layer (CBL) was deduced, in the present Paper II the model capability to predict the evolution of meteorological CBL parameters is demonstrated. Based on a model setup to simulate typical CBL conditions, predicted first-, second- and third-order moments were shown to agree very well with those obtained from in situ and remote sensing turbulence measurements such as aircraft, SODAR and LIDAR measurements as well as with those derived from ensemble-averaged large eddy simulations and wind tunnel experiments. The results show, that the model is able to predict the meteorological CBL parameters, required to verify or falsify, respectively, previous hypothesis on the interaction between CBL turbulence and new particle formation.
- ItemThe contribution of sulphuric acid to atmospheric particle formation and growth: A comparison between boundary layers in Northern and Central Europe(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2005) Fiedler, V.; Dal Maso, M.; Boy, M.; Aufmhoff, H.; Hoffmann, J.; Schuck, T.; Birmili, W.; Hanke, M.; Uecker, J.; Arnold, F.; Kulmala, M.Atmospheric gaseous sulphuric acid was measured and its influence on particle formation and growth was investigated building on aerosol data. The measurements were part of the EU-project QUEST and took place at two different measurement sites in Northern and Central Europe (Hyytiälä, Finland, March-April 2003 and Heidelberg, Germany, March-April 2004). From a comprehensive data set including sulphuric acid, particle number size distributions and meteorological data, particle growth rates, particle formation rates and source rates of condensable vapors were inferred. Growth rates were determined in two different ways, from particle size distributions as well as from a so-called timeshift analysis. Moreover, correlations between sulphuric acid and particle number concentration between 3 and 6 nm were examined and the influence of air masses of different origin was investigated. Measured maximum concentrations of sulphuric acid were in the range from 1x106 to 16x106cm-3. The gaseous sulphuric acid lifetime with respect to condensation on aerosol particles ranged from 2 to 33min in Hyytiälä and from 0.5 to 8 min in Heidelberg. Most calculated values (growth rates, formation rates, vapor source rates) were considerably higher in Central Europe (Heidelberg), due to the more polluted air and higher preexistent aerosol concentrations. Close correlations between H2SO4 and nucleation mode particles (size range: 3-6 nm) were found on most days at both sites. The percentage contribution of sulphuric acid to particle growth was below 10% at both places and to initial growth below 20%. An air mass analysis indicated that at Heidelberg new particles were formed predominantly in air advected from southwesterly directions.
- ItemHow tight are the limits to land and water use? - Combined impacts of food demand and climate change(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2005) Lotze-Campen, H.; Lucht, W.; Müller, C.; Bondeau, A.; Smith, P.In the coming decades, world agricultural systems will face serious transitions. Population growth, income and lifestyle changes will lead to considerable increases in food demand. Moreover, a rising demand for renewable energy and biodiversity protection may restrict the area available for food production. On the other hand, global climate change will affect production conditions, for better or worse depending on regional conditions. In order to simulate these combined effects consistently and in a spatially explicit way, we have linked the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) with a "Management model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment" (MAgPIE). LPJ represents the global biosphere with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree. MAgPIE covers the most important agricultural crop and livestock production types. A prototype has been developed for one sample region. In the next stage this will be expanded to several economically relevant regions on a global scale, including international trade. The two models are coupled through a layer of productivity zones. In the paper we present the modelling approach, develop first joint scenarios and discuss selected results from the coupled modelling system.
- ItemRegional climate model simulations as input for hydrological applications: Evaluation of uncertainties(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2005) Kotlarski, S.; Block, A.; Böhm, U.; Jacob, D.; Keuler, K.; Knoche, R.; Rechid, D.; Walter, A.The ERA15 Reanalysis (1979-1993) has been dynamically downscaled over Central Europe using 4 different regional climate models. The regional simulations were analysed with respect to 2m temperature and total precipitation, the main input parameters for hydrological applications. Model results were validated against three reference data sets (ERA15, CRU, DWD) and uncertainty ranges were derived. For mean annual 2 m temperature over Germany, the simulation bias lies between -1.1°C and +0.9°C depending on the combination of model and reference data set. The bias of mean annual precipitation varies between -31 and +108 mm/year. Differences between RCM results are of the same magnitude as differences between the reference data sets.
- ItemImpacts of large-scale climatic disturbances on the terrestrial carbon cycle(London : BioMed Central, 2006) Erbrecht, Tim; Lucht, WolfgangBackground: The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere steadily increases as a consequence of anthropogenic emissions but with large interannual variability caused by the terrestrial biosphere. These variations in the CO2 growth rate are caused by large-scale climate anomalies but the relative contributions of vegetation growth and soil decomposition is uncertain. We use a biogeochemical model of the terrestrial biosphere to differentiate the effects of temperature and precipitation on net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) during the two largest anomalies in atmospheric CO2 increase during the last 25 years. One of these, the smallest atmospheric year-to-year increase (largest land carbon uptake) in that period, was caused by global cooling in 1992/93 after the Pinatubo volcanic eruption. The other, the largest atmospheric increase on record (largest land carbon release), was caused by the strong El Niño event of 1997/98. Results: We find that the LPJ model correctly simulates the magnitude of terrestrial modulation of atmospheric carbon anomalies for these two extreme disturbances. The response of soil respiration to changes in temperature and precipitation explains most of the modelled anomalous CO2 flux. Conclusion: Observed and modelled NEE anomalies are in good agreement, therefore we suggest that the temporal variability of heterotrophic respiration produced by our model is reasonably realistic. We therefore conclude that during the last 25 years the two largest disturbances of the global carbon cycle were strongly controlled by soil processes rather then the response of vegetation to these large-scale climatic events.