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- ItemDIVA: An iterative method for building modular integrated models(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2005) Hinkel, J.Integrated modelling of global environmental change impacts faces the challenge that knowledge from the domains of Natural and Social Science must be integrated. This is complicated by often incompatible terminology and the fact that the interactions between subsystems are usually not fully understood at the start of the project. While a modular modelling approach is necessary to address these challenges, it is not sufficient. The remaining question is how the modelled system shall be cut down into modules. While no generic answer can be given to this question, communication tools can be provided to support the process of modularisation and integration. Along those lines of thought a method for building modular integrated models was developed within the EU project DINAS-COAST and applied to construct a first model, which assesses the vulnerability of the world’s coasts to climate change and sea-level-rise. The method focuses on the development of a common language and offers domain experts an intuitive interface to code their knowledge in form of modules. However, instead of rigorously defining interfaces between the subsystems at the project’s beginning, an iterative model development process is defined and tools to facilitate communication and collaboration are provided. This flexible approach has the advantage that increased understanding about subsystem interactions, gained during the project’s lifetime, can immediately be reflected in the model.
- ItemSporadic Ca and Ca+ layers at mid-latitudes: Simultaneous observations and implications for their formation(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2001) Gerding, M.; Alpers, M.; Höffner, J.; von Zahn, U.We report on the observations of 188 sporadic layers of either Ca atoms and/or Ca ions that we have observed during 112 nights of lidar soundings of Ca, and 58 nights of Ca+ soundings, at Kühlungsborn, Germany (54° N, 12° E). The Ca+ soundings have been performed simultaneously and in a common volume with the Ca soundings by two separate lidars. Correlations between sporadic neutral and ionized metal layers are demonstrated through four case studies. A systematic study of the variations of occurrence of sporadic Ca and Ca+ layers reveals that neutral and ionized Ca layers are not as closely correlated as expected earlier: (a) The altitude distribution shows the simultaneous occurrence of both sporadic Ca and Ca+ layers to be most likely only in the narrow altitude range between 90 and 95 km. Above that region, in the lower thermosphere, the sporadic ion layers are much more frequent than atom layers. Below 90 km only very few sporadic layers have been observed; (b) The seasonal variation of sporadic Ca layers exhibits a minimum of occurrence in summer, while sporadic Ca+ layers do not show a significant seasonal variation (only the dense Ca+ layers appear to have a maximum in summer). At mid-latitudes sporadic Ca layers are more frequent than sporadic layers of other atmospheric metals like Na or K. For the explanation of our observations new formation mechanisms are discussed.
- ItemThe atmospheric background situation in northern Scandinavia during January/February 2003 in the context of the MaCWAVE campaign(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2006) Blum, U.; Baumgarten, G.; Schöch, A.; Kirkwood, S.; Naujokat, B.; Fricke, K.H.The atmosphere background wind field controls the propagation of gravity waves from the troposphere through the stratosphere into the mesosphere. During January 2003 the MaCWAVE campaign took place at Esrange, with the purpose of observing vertically ascending waves induced by orography. Temperature data from the U. Bonn lidar at Esrange (68° N/21° E) and the ALOMAR RMR lidar (69° N/16° E), wind data from Esrange MST radar ESRAD, as well as wind data from the ECMWF T106 model, are used to analyse the atmospheric background situation and its effect on mountain wave propagation during January/February 2003. Critical levels lead to dissipation of vertically ascending waves, thus mountain waves are not observable above those levels. In the first half of January a minor as well as a major stratospheric warming dominated the meteorological background situation. These warmings led to a wind reversal, thus to critical level filtering and consequently prevented gravity waves from propagating to high altitudes. While the troposphere was not transparent for stationary gravity waves most of the time, there was a period of eight days following the major warming with a transparent stratosphere, with conditions allowing gravity waves generated in the lower troposphere to penetrate the stratosphere up to the stratopause and sometimes even into the lower mesosphere. In the middle of February a minor stratospheric warming occurred, which again led to critical levels such that gravity waves were not able to ascend above the middle stratosphere. Due to the unfavourable troposphere and lower stratosphere conditions for gravity wave excitation and propagation, the source of the observed waves in the middle atmosphere is probably different from orography.
- ItemObservation of an unusual mid-stratospheric aerosol layer in the Arctic: Possible sources and implications for polar vortex dynamics(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2003) Gerding, M.; Baumgarten, G.; Blum, U.; Thayer, J.P.; Fricke, K.-H.; Neuber, R.; Fiedler, J.By the beginning of winter 2000/2001, a mysterious stratospheric aerosol layer had been detected by four different Arctic lidar stations. The aerosol layer was observed first on 16 November 2000, at an altitude of about 38 km near Søndre Strømfjord, Greenland (67° N, 51° W) and on 19 November 2000, near Andenes, Norway (69° N, 16° E). Subsequently, in early December 2000, the aerosol layer was observed near Kiruna, Sweden (68° N, 21° E) and Ny-Ålesund, Spitsbergen (79° N, 12° E). No mid-latitude lidar station observed the presence of aerosols in this altitude region. The layer persisted throughout the winter 2000/2001, at least up to 12 February 2001. In November 2000, the backscatter ratio at a wavelength of 532 nm was up to 1.1, with a FWHM of about 2.5 km. By early February 2001, the layer had sedimented from an altitude of 38 km to about 26 km. Measurements at several wavelengths by the ALOMAR and Koldewey lidars indicate the particle size was between 30 and 50 nm. Depolarisation measurements reveal that the particles in the layer are aspherical, hence solid. In the mid-stratosphere, the ambient atmospheric temperature was too high to support in situ formation or existence of cloud particles consisting of ice or an acid-water solution. Furthermore, in the year 2000 there was no volcanic eruption, which could have injected aerosols into the upper stratosphere. Therefore, other origins of the aerosol, such as meteoroid debris, condensed rocket fuel, or aerosols produced under the influence of charged solar particles, will be discussed in the paper. Trajectory calculations illustrate the path of the aerosol cloud within the polar vortex and are used to link the observations at the different lidar sites. From the descent rate of the layer and particle sedimentation rates, the mean down-ward motion of air within the polar vortex was estimated to be about 124 m/d between 35 and 30 km, with higher values at the edge of the vortex.
- ItemOn the longitudinal structure of the transient day-to-day variation of the semidiurnal tide in the mid-latitude lower thermosphere - I. Winter season(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2001) Merzlyakov, E.G.; Portnyagin, Yu.I.; Jacobi, C.; Mitchell, N.J.; Muller, H.G.; Manson, A.H.; Fachrutdinova, A.N.; Singer, W.; Hoffmann, P.The longitudinal structure of the day-to-day variations of semidiurnal tide amplitudes is analysed based on coordinated mesosphere/lower thermosphere wind measurements at several stations during three winter campaigns. Possible excitation sources of these variations are discussed. Special attention is given to a nonlinear interaction between the semidiurnal tide and the day-to-day mean wind variations. Data processing includes the S-transform analysis which takes into account transient behaviour of secondary waves. It is shown that strong tidal modulations appear during a stratospheric warming and may be caused by aperiodic mean wind variations during this event.
- ItemInertia gravity waves in the upper troposphere during the MaCWAVE winter campaign - Part II: Radar investigations and modelling studies(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2006) Serafimovich, A.; Zülicke, Ch.; Hoffmann, P.; Peters, D.; Dalin, P.; Singer, W.We present an experimental and modelling study of a strong gravity wave event in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere near the Scandinavian mountain ridge. Continuous VHF radar measurements during the MaCWAVE rocket and ground-based measurement campaign were performed at the Norwegian Andoya Rocket Range (ARR) near Andenes (69.3° N, 16° E) in January 2003. Detailed gravity wave investigations based on PSU/NCAR Fifth-Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5) data have been used for comparison with experimentally obtained results. The model data show the presence of a mountain wave and of an inertia gravity wave generated by a jet streak near the tropopause region. Temporal and spatial dependencies of jet induced inertia gravity waves with dominant observed periods of about 13 h and vertical wavelengths of ~4.5–5 km are investigated with wavelet transform applied on radar measurements and model data. The jet induced wave packet is observed to move upstream and downward in the upper troposphere. The model data agree with the experimentally obtained results fairly well. Possible reasons for the observed differences, e.g. in the time of maximum of the wave activity, are discussed. Finally, the vertical fluxes of horizontal momentum are estimated with different methods and provide similar amplitudes. We found indications that the derived positive vertical flux of the horizontal momentum corresponds to the obtained parameters of the jet-induced inertia gravity wave, but only at the periods and heights of the strongest wave activity.
- ItemAgents, Bayes, and Climatic Risks - a modular modelling approach(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2005) Haas, A.; Jaeger, C.When insurance firms, energy companies, governments, NGOs, and other agents strive to manage climatic risks, it is by no way clear what the aggregate outcome should and will be. As a framework for investigating this subject, we present the LAGOM model family. It is based on modules depicting learning social agents. For managing climate risks, our agents use second order probabilities and update them by means of a Bayesian mechanism while differing in priors and risk aversion. The interactions between these modules and the aggregate outcomes of their actions are implemented using further modules. The software system is implemented as a series of parallel processes using the CIAMn approach. It is possible to couple modules irrespective of the language they are written in, the operating system under which they are run, and the physical location of the machine
- ItemImpacts of global change on water-related sectors and society in a trans-boundary central European river basin – Part 2: From eco-hydrology to water demand management(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2007) Conradt, T.; Kaltofen, M.; Hentschel, M.; Hattermann, F.F.; Wechsung, F.This second part of the paper presents the details of the eco-hydrological model SWIM simulating the natural water supply and its coupling to WBalMo, a water management model. Based on the climate scenarios of the STAR model, SWIM simulates the natural water and matter fluxes for the entire Elbe River area. All relevant processes are modelled for hydrotopes and the resulting discharges are accumulated in subbasins. The output data are input for the water management model WBalMo and the quality models Moneris and QSim. WBalMo takes storage management, inputs and withdrawals into account and analyses how demands by industry, power plants and households will be met at changing natural supply conditions. Some of the first results shall be presented here.
- ItemIntegrated analysis of water quality in a mesoscale lowland basin(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2005) Habeck, A.; Krysanova, V.; Hattermann, F.This article describes a modelling study on nitrogen transport from diffuse sources in the Nuthe catchment, representing a typical lowland region in the north-eastern Germany. Building on a hydrological validation performed in advance using the ecohydrological model SWIM, the nitrogen flows were simulated over a 20-year period (1981-2000). The relatively good quality of the input data, particularly for the years from 1993 to 2000, enabled the nitrogen flows to be reproduced sufficiently well, although modelling nutrient flows is always associated with a great deal of uncertainty. Subsequently, scenario calculations were carried out in order to investigate how nitrogen transport from the catchment could be further reduced. The selected scenario results with the greatest reduction of nitrogen washoff will briefly be presented in the paper.
- ItemA case of extreme particulate matter concentrations over Central Europe caused by dust emitted over the southern Ukraine(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2008) Birmili, W.; Schepanski, K.; Ansmann, A.; Spindler, G.; Tegen, I.; Wehner, B.; Nowak, A.; Reimer, E.; Mattis, I.; Müller, K.; Brüggemann, E.; Gnauk, T.; Herrmann, H.; Wiedensohler, A.; Althausen, D.; Schladitz, A.; Tuch, T.; Löschau, G.On 24 March 2007, an extraordinary dust plume was observed in the Central European troposphere. Satellite observations revealed its origins in a dust storm in Southern Ukraine, where large amounts of soil were resuspended from dried-out farmlands at wind gusts up to 30 m s−1. Along the pathway of the plume, maximum particulate matter (PM10) mass concentrations between 200 and 1400 μg m−3 occurred in Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Poland, and Germany. Over Germany, the dust plume was characterised by a volume extinction coefficient up to 400 Mm−1 and a particle optical depth of 0.71 at wavelength 0.532 μm. In-situ size distribution measurements as well as the wavelength dependence of light extinction from lidar and Sun photometer measurements confirmed the presence of a coarse particle mode with diameters around 2–3 μm. Chemical particle analyses suggested a fraction of 75% crustal material in daily average PM10 and up to 85% in the coarser fraction PM10–2.5. Based on the particle characteristics as well as a lack of increased CO and CO2 levels, a significant impact of biomass burning was ruled out. The reasons for the high particle concentrations in the dust plume were twofold: First, dust was transported very rapidly into Central Europe in a boundary layer jet under dry conditions. Second, the dust plume was confined to a relatively stable boundary layer of 1.4–1.8 km height, and could therefore neither expand nor dilute efficiently. Our findings illustrate the capacity of combined in situ and remote sensing measurements to characterise large-scale dust plumes with a variety of aerosol parameters. Although such plumes from Southern Eurasia seem to occur rather infrequently in Central Europe, its unexpected features highlights the need to improve the description of dust emission, transport and transformation processes needs, particularly when facing the possible effects of further anthropogenic desertification and climate change.