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End date: 2009 × Start date: 2005 × Has files: Yes × Type: Text × Publisher: Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH ×

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 12
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    Human alterations of the terrestrial water cycle through land management
    (Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2008) Rost, S.; Gerten, D.; Heyder, U.
    This study quantifies current and potential future changes in transpiration, evaporation, interception loss and river discharge in response to land use change, irrigation and climate change, by performing several distinct simulations within the consistent hydrology and biosphere modeling framework LPJmL (Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land). We distinguished two irrigation simulations: a water limited one in which irrigation was restricted by local renewable water resources (ILIM), and a potential one in which no such limitation was assumed but withdrawals from deep groundwater or remote rivers allowed (IPOT). We found that the effect of historical land use change as compared to potential natural vegetation was pronounced, including a reduction in interception loss and transpiration by 25.9% and 10.6%, respectively, whereas river discharge increased by 6.6% (climate conditions of 1991-2000). Furthermore, we estimated that about 1170km3yr-1 of irrigation water could be withdrawn from local renewable water resources (in ILIM), which resulted in a reduction of river discharge by 1.5%. However, up to 1660km3yr-1 of water withdrawals were required in addition under the assumption that optimal growth of irrigated crops was sustained (IPOT), which resulted in a slight net increase in global river discharge by 2.0% due to return flows. Under the HadCM3 A2 climate and emission scenario, climate change alone will decrease total evapotranspiration by 1.5% and river discharge by 0.9% in 2046-2055 compared to 1991-2000 average due to changes in precipitation patterns, a decrease in global precipitation amount, and the net effect of CO2 fertilization. A doubling of agricultural land in 2046-2055 compared to 1991-2000 average as proposed by the IMAGE land use change scenario will result in a decrease in total evapotranspiration by 2.5% and in an increase in river discharge by 3.9%. That is, the effects of land use change in the future will be comparable in magnitude to the effects of climate change in this particular scenario. On present irrigated areas future water withdrawal will increase especially in regions where climate changes towards warmer and dryer conditions will be pronounced.
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    Small-scale mixing processes enhancing troposphere-to-stratosphere transport by pyro-cumulonimbus storms
    (Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2007) Luderer, G.; Trentmann, J.; Hungershöfer, K.; Herzog, M.; Fromm, M.; Andreae, M.O.
    Deep convection induced by large forest fires is an efficient mechanism for transport of aerosol particles and trace gases into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS). For many pyro-cumulonimbus clouds (pyroCbs) as well as other cases of severe convection without fire forcing, radiometric observations of cloud tops in the thermal infrared (IR) reveal characteristic structures, featuring a region of relatively high brightness temperatures (warm center) surrounded by a U-shaped region of low brightness temperatures. We performed a numerical simulation of a specific case study of pyroCb using a non-hydrostatic cloud resolving model with a two-moment cloud microphysics parameterization and a prognostic turbulence scheme. The model is able to reproduce the thermal IR structure as observed from satellite radiometry. Our findings establish a close link between the observed temperature pattern and small-scale mixing processes atop and downwind of the overshooting dome of the pyroCb. Such small-scale mixing processes are strongly enhanced by the formation and breaking of a stationary gravity wave induced by the overshoot. They are found to increase the stratospheric penetration of the smoke by up to almost 30 K and thus are of major significance for irreversible transport of forest fire smoke into the lower stratosphere.
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    Temperature sensitivity of decomposition in relation to soil organic matter pools: Critique and outlook
    (Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2005) Reichstein, M.; Kätterer, T.; Andrén, O.; Ciais, P.; Schulze, E.-D.; Cramer, W.; Papale, D.; Valentini, R.
    Knorr et al. (2005) concluded that soil organic carbon pools with longer turnover times are more sensitive to temperature. We show that this conclusion is equivocal, largely dependent on their specific selection of data and does not persist when the data set of Kätterer et al. (1998) is analysed in a more appropriate way. Further, we analyse how statistical properties of the model parameters may interfere with correlative analyses that relate the Q 10 of soil respiration with the basal rate, where the latter is taken as a proxy for soil organic matter quality. We demonstrate that negative parameter correlations between Qio-values and base respiration rates are statistically expected and not necessarily provide evidence for a higher temperature sensitivity of low quality soil organic matter. Consequently, we propose it is premature to conclude that stable soil carbon is more sensitive to temperature than labile carbon.
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    Sensitivity of polar stratospheric ozone loss to uncertainties in chemical reaction kinetics
    (Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2009) Kawa, S.R.; Stolarski, R.S.; Newman, P.A.; Douglass, A.R.; Rex, M.; Hofmann, D.J.; Santee, M.L.; Frieler, K.
    The impact and significance of uncertainties in model calculations of stratospheric ozone loss resulting from known uncertainty in chemical kinetics parameters is evaluated in trajectory chemistry simulations for the Antarctic and Arctic polar vortices. The uncertainty in modeled ozone loss is derived from Monte Carlo scenario simulations varying the kinetic (reaction and photolysis rate) parameters within their estimated uncertainty bounds. Simulations of a typical winter/spring Antarctic vortex scenario and Match scenarios in the Arctic produce large uncertainty in ozone loss rates and integrated seasonal loss. The simulations clearly indicate that the dominant source of model uncertainty in polar ozone loss is uncertainty in the Cl2O 2 photolysis reaction, which arises from uncertainty in laboratory-measured molecular cross sections at atmospherically important wavelengths. This estimated uncertainty in JCl 2O2 from laboratory measurements seriously hinders our ability to model polar ozone loss within useful quantitative error limits. Atmospheric observations, however, suggest that the Cl2O2 photolysis uncertainty may be less than that derived from the lab data. Comparisons to Match, South Pole ozonesonde, and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) data all show that the nominal recommended rate simulations agree with data within uncertainties when the Cl2O2 photolysis error is reduced by a factor of two, in line with previous in situ ClOx measurements. Comparisons to simulations using recent cross sections from Pope et al. (2007) are outside the constrained error bounds in each case. Other reactions producing significant sensitivity in polar ozone loss include BrO + ClO and its branching ratios. These uncertainties challenge our confidence in modeling polar ozone depletion and projecting future changes in response to changing halogen emissions and climate. Further laboratory, theoretical, and possibly atmospheric studies are needed.
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    Turbulent energy dissipation rates observed by Doppler MST Radar and by rocket-borne instruments during the MIDAS/MaCWAVE campaign 2002
    (Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2005) Engler, N.; Latteck, R.; Strelnikov, B.; Singer, W.; Rapp, M.
    During the MIDAS/MaCWAVE campaign in summer 2002 we have observed turbulence using Doppler beam steering measurements obtained from the ALWIN VHF radar at Andøya/Northern Norway. This radar was operated in the Doppler beam steering mode for turbulence investigations during the campaign, as well as in spaced antenna mode, for continuously measuring the background wind field. The real-time data analysis of the Doppler radar backscattering provided the launch conditions for the sounding rockets. The spectral width data observed during the occurrence of PMSE were corrected for beam and shear broadening caused by the background wind field to obtain the turbulent part of the spectral width. The turbulent energy dissipation rates determined from the turbulent spectral width vary between 5 and 100 m Wkg-1 in the altitude range of 80-92 km and increase with altitude. These estimations agree well with the in-situ measurements using the CONE sensor which was launched on 3 sounding rockets during the campaign.
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    Kinetic slow mode-type solitons
    (Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2005) Baumgärtel, K.; Sauer, K.; Dubinin, E.
    One-dimensional hybrid code simulations are presented, carried out in order both to study solitary waves of the slow mode branch in an isotropic, collisionless, medium-β plasma (βi=0.25) and to test the fluid based soliton interpretation of Cluster observed strong magnetic depressions (Stasiewicz et al., 200; Stasiewicz, 2004) against kinetic theory. In the simulations, a variety of strongly oblique, large amplitude, solitons are seen, including solitons with Alfvenic polarization, similar to those predicted by the Hall-MHD theory, and robust, almost non-propagating, solitary structures of slow magnetosonic type with strong magnetic field depressions and perpendicular ion heating, which have no counterpart in fluid theory. The results support the soliton-based interpretation of the Cluster observations, but reveal substantial deficiencies of Hall-MHD theory in describing slow mode-type solitons in a plasma of moderate beta.
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    A simple conceptual model of abrupt glacial climate events
    (Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2007) Braun, H.; Ganopolski, A.; Christl, M.; Chialvo, D.R.
    Here we use a very simple conceptual model in an attempt to reduce essential parts of the complex nonlinearity of abrupt glacial climate changes (the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger events) to a few simple principles, namely (i) the existence of two different climate states, (ii) a threshold process and (iii) an overshooting in the stability of the system at the start and the end of the events, which is followed by a millennial-scale relaxation. By comparison with a so-called Earth system model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER-2), in which the events represent oscillations between two climate states corresponding to two fundamentally different modes of deep-water formation in the North Atlantic, we demonstrate that the conceptual model captures fundamental aspects of the nonlinearity of the events in that model. We use the conceptual model in order to reproduce and reanalyse nonlinear resonance mechanisms that were already suggested in order to explain the characteristic time scale of Dansgaard-Oeschger events. In doing so we identify a new form of stochastic resonance (i.e. an overshooting stochastic resonance) and provide the first explicitly reported manifestation of ghost resonance in a geosystem, i.e. of a mechanism which could be relevant for other systems with thresholds and with multiple states of operation. Our work enables us to explicitly simulate realistic probability measures of Dansgaard-Oeschger events (e.g. waiting time distributions, which are a prerequisite for statistical analyses on the regularity of the events by means of Monte-Carlo simulations). We thus think that our study is an important advance in order to develop more adequate methods to test the statistical significance and the origin of the proposed glacial 1470-year climate cycle.
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    Forced versus coupled dynamics in Earth system modelling and prediction
    (Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2005) Knopf, B.; Held, H.; Schellnhuber, H.J.
    We compare coupled nonlinear climate models and their simplified forced counterparts with respect to predictability and phase space topology. Various types of uncertainty plague climate change simulation, which is, in turn, a crucial element of Earth System modelling. Since the currently preferred strategy for simulating the climate system, or the Earth System at large, is the coupling of sub-system modules (representing, e.g. atmosphere, oceans, global vegetation), this paper explicitly addresses the errors and indeterminacies generated by the coupling procedure. The focus is on a comparison of forced dynamics as opposed to fully, i.e. intrinsically, coupled dynamics. The former represents a particular type of simulation, where the time behaviour of one complex systems component is prescribed by data or some other external information source. Such a simplifying technique is often employed in Earth System models in order to save computing resources, in particular when massive model inter-comparisons need to be carried out. Our contribution to the debate is based on the investigation of two representative model examples, namely (i) a low-dimensional coupled atmosphere-ocean simulator, and (ii) a replica-like simulator embracing corresponding components. Whereas in general the forced version (ii) is able to mimic its fully coupled counterpart (i), we show in this paper that for a considerable fraction of parameter- and state-space, the two approaches qualitatively differ. Here we take up a phenomenon concerning the predictability of coupled versus forced models that was reported earlier in this journal: the observation that the time series of the forced version display artificial predictive skill. We present an explanation in terms of nonlinear dynamical theory. In particular we observe an intermittent version of artificial predictive skill, which we call on-off synchronization, and trace it back to the appearance of unstable periodic orbits. We also find it to be governed by a scaling law that allows us to estimate the probability of artificial predictive skill. In addition to artificial predictability we observe artificial bistability for the forced version, which has not been reported so far. The results suggest that bistability and intermittent predictability, when found in a forced model set-up, should always be cross-validated with alternative coupling designs before being taken for granted.
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    On the two-day oscillations and the day-to-day variability in global 3-D-modeling of the chemical system of the upper mesosphere/mesopause region
    (Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2005) Sonnemann, G.R.; Grygalashvyly, M.
    The integration of the photochemical system of the upper mesosphere/ mesopause region brought evidence that the system is able to respond in a nonlinear manner under certain conditions. Under the action of the diurnallyperiodic insolation, the system creates subharmonic oscillations or chaos if disregarding strong diffusion, and under special conditions it possesses multiple solutions. The models used in the past were simplified and idealized in view of the number of dimensions and the consideration of the full dynamics. On the basis of our global 3-D-model of the dynamics and chemistry of the middle atmosphere (COMMAIAP), we also found a nonlinear response in the photochemistry under realistic conditions. The model under consideration is not yet self-consistent, but the chemical model uses the dynamical fields calculated by the dynamic model. From our calculations we got period-2 oscillations of the photochemical system within confined latitudinal regions around the solstices but not during the equinoxes. The consequence of the period-2 oscillation of the chemical active minor constituents is that a marked two-day variation of the chemical heating rates is an important thermal pumping mechanism. We discuss these findings particularly in terms of the influence of realistic dynamics on the creation of nonlinear effects.
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    Long-term predictability of mean daily temperature data
    (Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2005) von Bloh, W.; Romano, M.C.; Thiel, M.
    We quantify the long-term predictability of global mean daily temperature data by means of the Rényi entropy of second order K2. We are interested in the yearly amplitude fluctuations of the temperature. Hence, the data are low-pass filtered. The obtained oscillatory signal has a more or less constant frequency, depending on the geographical coordinates, but its amplitude fluctuates irregularly. Our estimate of K2 quantifies the complexity of these amplitude fluctuations. We compare the results obtained for the CRU data set (interpolated measured temperature in the years 1901-2003 with 0.5° resolution, Mitchell et al., 20051) with the ones obtained for the temperature data from a coupled ocean-atmosphere global circulation model (AOGCM, calculated at DKRZ). Furthermore, we compare the results obtained by means of K2 with the linear variance of the temperature data.