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- ItemImpacts of global change on water-related sectors and society in a trans-boundary central European river basin – Part 2: From eco-hydrology to water demand management(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2007) Conradt, T.; Kaltofen, M.; Hentschel, M.; Hattermann, F.F.; Wechsung, F.This second part of the paper presents the details of the eco-hydrological model SWIM simulating the natural water supply and its coupling to WBalMo, a water management model. Based on the climate scenarios of the STAR model, SWIM simulates the natural water and matter fluxes for the entire Elbe River area. All relevant processes are modelled for hydrotopes and the resulting discharges are accumulated in subbasins. The output data are input for the water management model WBalMo and the quality models Moneris and QSim. WBalMo takes storage management, inputs and withdrawals into account and analyses how demands by industry, power plants and households will be met at changing natural supply conditions. Some of the first results shall be presented here.
- ItemA case of extreme particulate matter concentrations over Central Europe caused by dust emitted over the southern Ukraine(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2008) Birmili, W.; Schepanski, K.; Ansmann, A.; Spindler, G.; Tegen, I.; Wehner, B.; Nowak, A.; Reimer, E.; Mattis, I.; Müller, K.; Brüggemann, E.; Gnauk, T.; Herrmann, H.; Wiedensohler, A.; Althausen, D.; Schladitz, A.; Tuch, T.; Löschau, G.On 24 March 2007, an extraordinary dust plume was observed in the Central European troposphere. Satellite observations revealed its origins in a dust storm in Southern Ukraine, where large amounts of soil were resuspended from dried-out farmlands at wind gusts up to 30 m s−1. Along the pathway of the plume, maximum particulate matter (PM10) mass concentrations between 200 and 1400 μg m−3 occurred in Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Poland, and Germany. Over Germany, the dust plume was characterised by a volume extinction coefficient up to 400 Mm−1 and a particle optical depth of 0.71 at wavelength 0.532 μm. In-situ size distribution measurements as well as the wavelength dependence of light extinction from lidar and Sun photometer measurements confirmed the presence of a coarse particle mode with diameters around 2–3 μm. Chemical particle analyses suggested a fraction of 75% crustal material in daily average PM10 and up to 85% in the coarser fraction PM10–2.5. Based on the particle characteristics as well as a lack of increased CO and CO2 levels, a significant impact of biomass burning was ruled out. The reasons for the high particle concentrations in the dust plume were twofold: First, dust was transported very rapidly into Central Europe in a boundary layer jet under dry conditions. Second, the dust plume was confined to a relatively stable boundary layer of 1.4–1.8 km height, and could therefore neither expand nor dilute efficiently. Our findings illustrate the capacity of combined in situ and remote sensing measurements to characterise large-scale dust plumes with a variety of aerosol parameters. Although such plumes from Southern Eurasia seem to occur rather infrequently in Central Europe, its unexpected features highlights the need to improve the description of dust emission, transport and transformation processes needs, particularly when facing the possible effects of further anthropogenic desertification and climate change.
- ItemCloud phase identification of Arctic boundary-layer clouds from airborne spectral reflection measurements: Test of three approaches(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2008) Ehrlich, A.; Bierwirth, E.; Wendisch, M.; Gayet, J.-F.; Mioche, G.; Lampert, A.; Heintzenberg, J.Arctic boundary-layer clouds were investigated with remote sensing and in situ instruments during the Arctic Study of Tropospheric Aerosol, Clouds and Radiation (ASTAR) campaign in March and April 2007. The clouds formed in a cold air outbreak over the open Greenland Sea. Beside the predominant mixed-phase clouds pure liquid water and ice clouds were observed. Utilizing measurements of solar radiation reflected by the clouds three methods to retrieve the thermodynamic phase of the cloud are introduced and compared. Two ice indices IS and IP were obtained by analyzing the spectral pattern of the cloud top reflectance in the near infrared (1500–1800 nm wavelength) spectral range which is characterized by ice and water absorption. While IS analyzes the spectral slope of the reflectance in this wavelength range, IS utilizes a principle component analysis (PCA) of the spectral reflectance. A third ice index IA is based on the different side scattering of spherical liquid water particles and nonspherical ice crystals which was recorded in simultaneous measurements of spectral cloud albedo and reflectance. Radiative transfer simulations show that IS, IP and IA range between 5 to 80, 0 to 8 and 1 to 1.25 respectively with lowest values indicating pure liquid water clouds and highest values pure ice clouds. The spectral slope ice index IS and the PCA ice index IP are found to be strongly sensitive to the effective diameter of the ice crystals present in the cloud. Therefore, the identification of mixed-phase clouds requires a priori knowledge of the ice crystal dimension. The reflectance-albedo ice index IA is mainly dominated by the uppermost cloud layer (τ<1.5). Therefore, typical boundary-layer mixed-phase clouds with a liquid cloud top layer will be identified as pure liquid water clouds. All three methods were applied to measurements above a cloud field observed during ASTAR 2007. The comparison with independent in situ microphysical measurements shows the ability of the three approaches to identify the ice phase in Arctic boundary-layer clouds.
- ItemSeasonal variation of nocturnal temperatures between 1 and 105 km altitude at 54° N observed by lidar(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2008) Gerding, M.; Höffner, J.; Lautenbach, J.; Rauthe, M.; Lübken, F.-J.Temperature soundings are performed by lidar at the mid-latitude station of Kühlungsborn (Germany, 54° N, 12° E). The profiles cover the complete range from the lower troposphere (~1 km) to the lower thermosphere (~105 km) by simultaneous and co-located operation of a Rayleigh-Mie-Raman lidar and a potassium resonance lidar. Observations have been done during 266 nights between June 2002 and July 2007, each of 3–15 h length. This large and unique data set provides comprehensive information on the altitudinal and seasonal variation of temperatures from the troposphere to the lower thermosphere. The remaining day-to-day-variability is strongly reduced by harmonic fits at constant altitude levels and a representative data set is achieved. This data set reveals a two-level mesopause structure with an altitude of about 86–87 km (~144 K) in summer and ~102 km (~170 K) during the rest of the year. The average stratopause altitude is ~48 km throughout the whole year, with temperatures varying between 258 and 276 K. From the fit parameters amplitudes and phases of annual, semi-annual, and quarter-annual variations are derived. The amplitude of the annual component is largest with amplitudes of up to 30 K in 85 km, while the quarter-annual variation is smallest and less than 3 K at all altitudes. The lidar data set is compared with ECMWF temperatures below about 70 km altitude and reference data from the NRLMSISE-00 model above. Apart from the temperature soundings the aerosol backscatter ratio is measured between 20 and 35 km. The seasonal variation of these values is presented here for the first time.
- ItemTowards global empirical upscaling of FLUXNET eddy covariance observations: Validation of a model tree ensemble approach using a biosphere model(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2009) Jung, M.; Reichstein, M.; Bondeau, A.Global, spatially and temporally explicit estimates of carbon and water fluxes derived from empirical up-scaling eddy covariance measurements would constitute a new and possibly powerful data stream to study the variability of the global terrestrial carbon and water cycle. This paper introduces and validates a machine learning approach dedicated to the upscaling of observations from the current global network of eddy covariance towers (FLUXNET). We present a new model TRee Induction ALgorithm (TRIAL) that performs hierarchical stratification of the data set into units where particular multiple regressions for a target variable hold. We propose an ensemble approach (Evolving tRees with RandOm gRowth, ERROR) where the base learning algorithm is perturbed in order to gain a diverse sequence of different model trees which evolves over time. We evaluate the efficiency of the model tree ensemble (MTE) approach using an artificial data set derived from the Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL) biosphere model. We aim at reproducing global monthly gross primary production as simulated by LPJmL from 1998–2005 using only locations and months where high quality FLUXNET data exist for the training of the model trees. The model trees are trained with the LPJmL land cover and meteorological input data, climate data, and the fraction of absorbed photosynthetic active radiation simulated by LPJmL. Given that we know the "true result" in the form of global LPJmL simulations we can effectively study the performance of the MTE upscaling and associated problems of extrapolation capacity. We show that MTE is able to explain 92% of the variability of the global LPJmL GPP simulations. The mean spatial pattern and the seasonal variability of GPP that constitute the largest sources of variance are very well reproduced (96% and 94% of variance explained respectively) while the monthly interannual anomalies which occupy much less variance are less well matched (41% of variance explained). We demonstrate the substantially improved accuracy of MTE over individual model trees in particular for the monthly anomalies and for situations of extrapolation. We estimate that roughly one fifth of the domain is subject to extrapolation while MTE is still able to reproduce 73% of the LPJmL GPP variability here. This paper presents for the first time a benchmark for a global FLUXNET upscaling approach that will be employed in future studies. Although the real world FLUXNET upscaling is more complicated than for a noise free and reduced complexity biosphere model as presented here, our results show that an empirical upscaling from the current FLUXNET network with MTE is feasible and able to extract global patterns of carbon flux variability.
- ItemAnalyzing the causes and spatial pattern of the European 2003 carbon flux anomaly using seven models(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2008) Vetter, M.; Churkina, G.; Jung, M.; Reichstein, M.; Zaehle, S.; Bondeau, A.; Chen, Y.; Ciais, P.; Feser, F.; Freibauer, A.; Geyer, R.; Jones, C.; Papale, D.; Tenhunen, J.; Tomelleri, E.; Trusilova, K.; Viovy, N.; Heimann, M.Globally, the year 2003 is associated with one of the largest atmospheric CO2 rises on record. In the same year, Europe experienced an anomalously strong flux of CO2 from the land to the atmosphere associated with an exceptionally dry and hot summer in Western and Central Europe. In this study we analyze the magnitude of this carbon flux anomaly and key driving ecosystem processes using simulations of seven terrestrial ecosystem models of different complexity and types (process-oriented and diagnostic). We address the following questions: (1) how large were deviations in the net European carbon flux in 2003 relative to a short-term baseline (1998–2002) and to longer-term variations in annual fluxes (1980 to 2005), (2) which European regions exhibited the largest changes in carbon fluxes during the growing season 2003, and (3) which ecosystem processes controlled the carbon balance anomaly . In most models the prominence of 2003 anomaly in carbon fluxes declined with lengthening of the reference period from one year to 16 years. The 2003 anomaly for annual net carbon fluxes ranged between 0.35 and –0.63 Pg C for a reference period of one year and between 0.17 and –0.37 Pg C for a reference period of 16 years for the whole Europe. In Western and Central Europe, the anomaly in simulated net ecosystem productivity (NEP) over the growing season in 2003 was outside the 1σ variance bound of the carbon flux anomalies for 1980–2005 in all models. The estimated anomaly in net carbon flux ranged between –42 and –158 Tg C for Western Europe and between 24 and –129 Tg C for Central Europe depending on the model used. All models responded to a dipole pattern of the climate anomaly in 2003. In Western and Central Europe NEP was reduced due to heat and drought. In contrast, lower than normal temperatures and higher air humidity decreased NEP over Northeastern Europe. While models agree on the sign of changes in simulated NEP and gross primary productivity in 2003 over Western and Central Europe, models diverge in the estimates of anomalies in ecosystem respiration. Except for two process models which simulate respiration increase, most models simulated a decrease in ecosystem respiration in 2003. The diagnostic models showed a weaker decrease in ecosystem respiration than the process-oriented models. Based on the multi-model simulations we estimated the total carbon flux anomaly over the 2003 growing season in Europe to range between –0.02 and –0.27 Pg C relative to the net carbon flux in 1998–2002.
- ItemEstimating carbon emissions from African wildfires(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2009) Lehsten, V.; Tansey, K.; Balzter, H.; Thonicke, K.; Spessa, A.; Weber, U.; Smith, B.; Arneth, A.We developed a technique for studying seasonal and interannual variation in pyrogenic carbon emissions from Africa using a modelling approach that scales burned area estimates from L3JRC, a map recently generated from remote sensing of burn scars instead of active fires. Carbon fluxes were calculated by the novel fire model SPITFIRE embedded within the dynamic vegetation model framework LPJ-GUESS, using daily climate input. For the time period from 2001 to 2005 an average area of 195.5±24×104 km2 was burned annually, releasing an average of 723±70 Tg C to the atmosphere; these estimates for the biomass burned are within the range of previously published estimates. Despite the fact that the majority of wildfires are ignited by humans, strong relationships between climatic conditions (particularly precipitation), net primary productivity and overall biomass burnt emerged. Our investigation of the relationships between burnt area and carbon emissions and their potential drivers available litter and precipitation revealed uni-modal responses to annual precipitation, with a maximum around 1000 mm for burned area and emissions, or 1200 mm for litter availability. Similar response patterns identified in savannahs worldwide point to precipitation as a chief determinant for short-term variation in fire regime. A considerable variability that cannot be explained by fire-precipitation relationships alone indicates the existence of additional factors that must be taken into account.
- ItemDesign and performance of an automatic regenerating adsorption aerosol dryer for continuous operation at monitoring sites(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2009) Tuch, T.M.; Haudek, A.; Müller, T.; Nowak, A.; Wex, H.; Wiedensohler, A.Sizes of aerosol particles depend on the relative humidity of their carrier gas. Most monitoring networks require therefore that the aerosol is dried to a relative humidity below 50% r.H. to ensure comparability of measurements at different sites. Commercially available aerosol dryers are often not suitable for this purpose at remote monitoring sites. Adsorption dryers need to be regenerated frequently and maintenance-free single column Nafion dryers are not designed for high aerosol flow rates. We therefore developed an automatic regenerating adsorption aerosol dryer with a design flow rate of 1 m3/h. Particle transmission efficiency of this dryer has been determined during a 3 week experiment. The lower 50% cut-off was found to be smaller than 3 nm at the design flow rate of the instrument. Measured transmission efficiencies are in good agreement with theoretical calculations. One dryer has been successfully deployed in the Amazon river basin. We present data from this monitoring site for the first 6 months of measurements (February 2008–August 2008). Apart from one unscheduled service, this dryer did not require any maintenance during this time period. The average relative humidity of the dried aerosol was 27.1+/−7.5% r.H. compared to an average ambient relative humidity of nearly 80% and temperatures around 30°C. This initial deployment demonstrated that these dryers are well suitable for continuous operation at remote monitoring sites under adverse ambient conditions.
- ItemLarge-scale hydrological modelling and the Water Framework Directive and Floods Directive of the European Union - 10th Workshop on Large-Scale Hydrological Modelling(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2007) Lindenschmidt, K.-E.; Hattermann, F.; Mohaupt, V.; Merz, B.; Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Bronstert, A.In December 2000, the Water Framework Directive (WFD) of the European Union (EU) was enforced (EC, 2000) to provide a new legislative basis for water management in Europe. The main goal of the WFD is the implementation of river basin water management plans in which comprehensive studies of the current status of the surface and ground water bodies must be reported and management programs must be enforced with cost-effective measures with which a good ecological condition of the water bodies can be attained and sustained.
- ItemImpacts of global change on water-related sectors and society in a trans-boundary central European river basin – Part 1: Project framework and impacts on agriculture(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2007) Hattermann, F.F.; Gömann, H.; Conradt, T.; Kaltofen, M.; Kreins, P.; Wechsung, F.Central Europe, the focus region of this study, is a region in transition, climatically from maritime to continental and politically from formerly more planning-oriented to more market-oriented management regimes, and in terms of climate change from regions of increasing precipitation in the west and north of Europe to regions of decreasing precipitation in central and southern Europe. The Elbe basin, a trans-boundary catchment flowing from the Czech Republic through Germany into the North Sea, was selected to investigate the possible impacts of global change on crop yields and water resources in this region. For technical reasons, the paper has been split into two parts, the first showing the overall model concept, the model set-up for the agricultural sector, and first results linking eco-hydrological and agro-economic tools for the German part of the basin. The second part describes the model set-up for simulating water supply and demand linking eco-hydrological and water management tools for the entire basin including the Czech part.