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- ItemHomogeneous and heterogeneous ice nucleation at LACIS: Operating principle and theoretical studies(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2011) Hartmann, S.; Niedermeier, D.; Voigtländer, J.; Clauss, T.; Shaw, R.A.; Wex, H.; Kiselev, A.; Stratmann, F.At the Leipzig Aerosol Cloud Interaction Simulator (LACIS) experiments investigating homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation of ice (particularly immersion freezing in the latter case) have been carried out. Here both the physical LACIS setup and the numerical model developed to design experiments at LACIS and interpret their results are presented in detail. Combining results from the numerical model with experimental data, it was found that for the experimental parameter space considered, classical homogeneous ice nucleation theory is able to predict the freezing behavior of highly diluted ammonium sulfate solution droplets, while classical heterogeneous ice nucleation theory, together with the assumption of a constant contact angle, fails to predict the immersion freezing behavior of surrogate mineral dust particles (Arizona Test Dust, ATD). The main reason for this failure is the compared to experimental data apparently overly strong temperature dependence of the nucleation rate coefficient. Assuming, in the numerical model, Classical Nucleation Theory (CNT) for homogeneous ice nucleation and a CNT-based parameterization for the nucleation rate coefficient in the immersion freezing mode, recently published by our group, it was found that even for a relatively effective ice nucleating agent such as pure ATD, there is a temperature range where homogeneous ice nucleation is dominant. The main explanation is the apparently different temperature dependencies of the two freezing mechanisms. Finally, reviewing the assumptions made during the derivation of the CNT-based parameterization for immersion freezing, it was found that the assumption of constant temperature during ice nucleation and the chosen ice nucleation time were justified, underlining the applicability of the method to determine the fitting coefficients in the parameterization equation.
- ItemEmulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 - Part 2: Applications(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2011) Meinshausen, M.; Raper, S.C.B.; Wigley, T.M.L.Intercomparisons of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and carbon cycle models are important for galvanizing our current scientific knowledge to project future climate. Interpreting such intercomparisons faces major challenges, not least because different models have been forced with different sets of forcing agents. Here, we show how an emulation approach with MAGICC6 can address such problems. In a companion paper (Meinshausen et al., 2011a), we show how the lower complexity carbon cycle-climate model MAGICC6 can be calibrated to emulate, with considerable accuracy, globally aggregated characteristics of these more complex models. Building on that, we examine here the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project's Phase 3 results (CMIP3). If forcing agents missed by individual AOGCMs in CMIP3 are considered, this reduces ensemble average temperature change from pre-industrial times to 2100 under SRES A1B by 0.4 °C. Differences in the results from the 1980 to 1999 base period (as reported in IPCC AR4) to 2100 are negligible, however, although there are some differences in the trajectories over the 21st century. In a second part of this study, we consider the new RCP scenarios that are to be investigated under the forthcoming CMIP5 intercomparison for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. For the highest scenario, RCP8.5, relative to pre-industrial levels, we project a median warming of around 4.6 °C by 2100 and more than 7 °C by 2300. For the lowest RCP scenario, RCP3-PD, the corresponding warming is around 1.5 °C by 2100, decreasing to around 1.1 °C by 2300 based on our AOGCM and carbon cycle model emulations. Implied cumulative CO2 emissions over the 21st century for RCP8.5 and RCP3-PD are 1881 GtC (1697 to 2034 GtC, 80% uncertainty range) and 381 GtC (334 to 488 GtC), when prescribing CO2 concentrations and accounting for uncertainty in the carbon cycle. Lastly, we assess the reasons why a previous MAGICC version (4.2) used in IPCC AR4 gave roughly 10% larger warmings over the 21st century compared to the CMIP3 average. We find that forcing differences and the use of slightly too high climate sensitivities inferred from idealized high-forcing runs were the major reasons for this difference.
- ItemModelling of sea salt concentrations over Europe: Key uncertainties and comparison with observations(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2011) Tsyro, S.; Aas, W.; Soares, J.; Sofiev, M.; Berge, H.; Spindler, G.Sea salt aerosol can significantly affect the air quality. Sea salt can cause enhanced concentrations of particulate matter and change particle chemical composition, in particular in coastal areas, and therefore should be accounted for in air quality modelling. We have used an EMEP Unified model to calculate sea salt concentrations and depositions over Europe, focusing on studying the effects of uncertainties in sea salt production and lifetime on calculation results. Model calculations of sea salt have been compared with EMEP observations of sodium concentrations in air and precipitation for a four year period, from 2004 to 2007, including size (fine/coarse) resolved EMEP intensive measurements in 2006 and 2007. In the presented calculations, sodium air concentrations are between 8% and 46% overestimated, whereas concentrations in precipitation are systematically underestimated by 65–70% for years 2004–2007. A series of model tests have been performed to investigate the reasons for this underestimation, but further studies are needed. The model is found to reproduce the spatial distribution of Na+ in air and precipitation over Europe fairly well, and to capture most of sea salt episodes. The paper presents the main findings from a series of tests in which we compare several different sea spray source functions and also look at the effects of meteorological input and the efficiency of removal processes on calculated sea salt concentrations. Finally, sea salt calculations with the EMEP model have been compared with results from the SILAM model and observations for 2007. While the models produce quite close results for Na+ at the majority of 26 measurement sites, discrepancies in terms of bias and temporal correlation are also found. Those differences are believed to occur due to differences in the representation of source function and size distribution of sea salt aerosol, different meteorology used for model runs and the different models' resolution. This study contributes to getting a better insight on uncertainties associated with sea salt calculations and thus facilitates further improvement of aerosol modelling on both regional and global scales.
- ItemComplex refractive indices of Saharan dust samples at visible and near UV wavelengths: A laboratory study(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2012) Wagner, R.; Ajtai, T.; Kandler, K.; Lieke, K.; Linke, C.; Müller, T.; Schnaiter, M.; Vragel, M.We have retrieved the wavelength-dependent imaginary parts of the complex refractive index for five different Saharan dust aerosol particles of variable mineralogical composition at wavelengths between 305 and 955 nm. The dust particles were generated by dispersing soil samples into a laboratory aerosol chamber, typically yielding particle sizes with mean diameters ranging from 0.3 to 0.4 μm and maximum diameters from 2 to 4 μm. The extinction and absorption coefficients as well as the number size distribution of the dust particles were simultaneously measured by various established techniques. An inversion scheme based on a spheroidal dust model was employed to deduce the refractive indices. The retrieved imaginary parts of the complex refractive index were in the range from 0.003 to 0.005, 0.005 to 0.011, and 0.016 to 0.050 at the wavelengths 955, 505, and 305 nm. The hematite content of the dust particles was determined by electron-microscopical single particle analysis. Hematite volume fractions in the range from 1.1 to 2.7% were found for the different dusts, a range typical for atmospheric mineral dust. We have performed a sensitivity study to assess how accurately the retrieved imaginary refractive indices could be reproduced by calculations with mixing rule approximations using the experimentally determined hematite contents as input.
- ItemAtmospheric dust modeling from meso to global scales with the online NMMB/BSC-Dust model – Part 2: Experimental campaigns in Northern Africa(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2012) Haustein, K.; Pérez, C.; Baldasano, J.M.; Jorba, O.; Basart, S.; Miller, R.L.; Janjic, Z.; Black, T.; Nickovic, S.; Todd, M.C.; Washington, R.; Müller, D.; Tesche, M.; Weinzierl, B.; Esselborn, M.; Schladitz, A.The new NMMB/BSC-Dust model is intended to provide short to medium-range weather and dust forecasts from regional to global scales. It is an online model in which the dust aerosol dynamics and physics are solved at each model time step. The companion paper (Pérez et al., 2011) develops the dust model parameterizations and provides daily to annual evaluations of the model for its global and regional configurations. Modeled aerosol optical depth (AOD) was evaluated against AERONET Sun photometers over Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe with correlations around 0.6–0.7 on average without dust data assimilation. In this paper we analyze in detail the behavior of the model using data from the Saharan Mineral dUst experiment (SAMUM-1) in 2006 and the Bodélé Dust Experiment (BoDEx) in 2005. AOD from satellites and Sun photometers, vertically resolved extinction coefficients from lidars and particle size distributions at the ground and in the troposphere are used, complemented by wind profile data and surface meteorological measurements. All simulations were performed at the regional scale for the Northern African domain at the expected operational horizontal resolution of 25 km. Model results for SAMUM-1 generally show good agreement with satellite data over the most active Saharan dust sources. The model reproduces the AOD from Sun photometers close to sources and after long-range transport, and the dust size spectra at different height levels. At this resolution, the model is not able to reproduce a large haboob that occurred during the campaign. Some deficiencies are found concerning the vertical dust distribution related to the representation of the mixing height in the atmospheric part of the model. For the BoDEx episode, we found the diurnal temperature cycle to be strongly dependant on the soil moisture, which is underestimated in the NCEP analysis used for model initialization. The low level jet (LLJ) and the dust AOD over the Bodélé are well reproduced. The remaining negative AOD bias (due to underestimated surface wind speeds) can be substantially reduced by decreasing the threshold friction velocity in the model.
- ItemNumerical simulations of mixing conditions and aerosol dynamics in the CERN CLOUD chamber(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2012) Voigtländer, J.; Duplissy, J.; Rondo, L.; Kürten, A.; Stratmann, F.To study the effect of galactic cosmic rays on aerosols and clouds, the Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets (CLOUD) project was established. Experiments are carried out at a 26.1 m3 tank at CERN (Switzerland). In the experiments, the effect of ionizing radiation on H2SO4 particle formation and growth is investigated. To evaluate the experimental configuration, the experiment was simulated using a coupled multidimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) – particle model. In the model the coupled fields of gas/vapor species, temperature, flow velocity and particle properties were computed to investigate mixing state and mixing times of the CLOUD tank's contents. Simulation results show that a 1-fan configuration, as used in first experiments, may not be sufficient to ensure a homogeneously mixed chamber. To mix the tank properly, two fans and sufficiently high fan speeds are necessary. The 1/e response times for instantaneous changes of wall temperature and saturation ratio were found to be in the order of few minutes. Particle nucleation and growth was also simulated and particle number size distribution properties of the freshly nucleated particles (particle number, mean size, standard deviation of the assumed log-normal distribution) were found to be distributed over the tank's volume similar to the gas species.
- ItemEstimating the near-surface permafrost-carbon feedback on global warming(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2012) Schneider von Deimling, T.; Meinshausen, M.; Levermann, A.; Huber, V.; Frieler, K.; Lawrence, D.M.; Brovkin, V.Thawing of permafrost and the associated release of carbon constitutes a positive feedback in the climate system, elevating the effect of anthropogenic GHG emissions on global-mean temperatures. Multiple factors have hindered the quantification of this feedback, which was not included in climate carbon-cycle models which participated in recent model intercomparisons (such as the Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project – C4MIP) . There are considerable uncertainties in the rate and extent of permafrost thaw, the hydrological and vegetation response to permafrost thaw, the decomposition timescales of freshly thawed organic material, the proportion of soil carbon that might be emitted as carbon dioxide via aerobic decomposition or as methane via anaerobic decomposition, and in the magnitude of the high latitude amplification of global warming that will drive permafrost degradation. Additionally, there are extensive and poorly characterized regional heterogeneities in soil properties, carbon content, and hydrology. Here, we couple a new permafrost module to a reduced complexity carbon-cycle climate model, which allows us to perform a large ensemble of simulations. The ensemble is designed to span the uncertainties listed above and thereby the results provide an estimate of the potential strength of the feedback from newly thawed permafrost carbon. For the high CO2 concentration scenario (RCP8.5), 33–114 GtC (giga tons of Carbon) are released by 2100 (68 % uncertainty range). This leads to an additional warming of 0.04–0.23 °C. Though projected 21st century permafrost carbon emissions are relatively modest, ongoing permafrost thaw and slow but steady soil carbon decomposition means that, by 2300, about half of the potentially vulnerable permafrost carbon stock in the upper 3 m of soil layer (600–1000 GtC) could be released as CO2, with an extra 1–4 % being released as methane. Our results also suggest that mitigation action in line with the lower scenario RCP3-PD could contain Arctic temperature increase sufficiently that thawing of the permafrost area is limited to 9–23 % and the permafrost-carbon induced temperature increase does not exceed 0.04–0.16 °C by 2300.
- ItemMulti-wavelength Raman lidar, sun photometric and aircraft measurements in combination with inversion models for the estimation of the aerosol optical and physico-chemical properties over Athens, Greece(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2012) Mamouri, R.E.; Papayannis, A.; Amiridis, V.; Müller, D.; Kokkalis, P.; Rapsomanikis, S.; Karageorgos, E.T.; Tsaknakis, G.; Nenes, A.; Kazadzis, S.; Remoundaki, E.A novel procedure has been developed to retrieve, simultaneously, the optical, microphysical and chemical properties of tropospheric aerosols with a multi-wavelength Raman lidar system in the troposphere over an urban site (Athens, Greece: 37.9° N, 23.6° E, 200 m a.s.l.) using data obtained during the European Space Agency (ESA) THERMOPOLIS project, which took place between 15–31 July 2009 over the Greater Athens Area (GAA). We selected to apply our procedure for a case study of intense aerosol layers that occurred on 20–21 July 2009. The National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) EOLE 6-wavelength Raman lidar system has been used to provide the vertical profiles of the optical properties of aerosols (extinction and backscatter coefficients, lidar ratio) and the water vapor mixing ratio. An inversion algorithm was used to derive the mean aerosol microphysical properties (mean effective radius (reff), single-scattering albedo ω) and mean complex refractive index (m)) at selected heights in the 2–3 km height region. We found that reff was 0.14–0.4 (±0.14) μm, ω was 0.63–0.88 (±0.08) (at 532 nm) and m ranged from 1.44 (±0.10) + 0.01 (±0.01)i to 1.55 (±0.12) + 0.06 (±0.02)i, in good agreement (only for the reff values) with in situ aircraft measurements. The water vapor and temperature profiles were incorporated into the ISORROPIA II model to propose a possible in situ aerosol composition consistent with the retrieved m and ω values. The retrieved aerosol chemical composition in the 2–3 km height region gave a variable range of sulfate (0–60%) and organic carbon (OC) content (0–50%), although the OC content increased (up to 50%) and the sulfate content dropped (up to 30%) around 3 km height; the retrieved low ω value (0.63), indicates the presence of absorbing biomass burning smoke mixed with urban haze. Finally, the retrieved aerosol microphysical properties were compared with column-integrated sun photometer CIMEL data.
- ItemEmulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 - Part 1: Model description and calibration(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2011) Meinshausen, M.; Raper, S.C.B.; Wigley, T.M.L.Current scientific knowledge on the future response of the climate system to human-induced perturbations is comprehensively captured by various model intercomparison efforts. In the preparation of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intercomparisons were organized for atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and carbon cycle models, named "CMIP3" and "C4MIP", respectively. Despite their tremendous value for the scientific community and policy makers alike, there are some difficulties in interpreting the results. For example, radiative forcings were not standardized across the various AOGCM integrations and carbon cycle runs, and, in some models, key forcings were omitted. Furthermore, the AOGCM analysis of plausible emissions pathways was restricted to only three SRES scenarios. This study attempts to address these issues. We present an updated version of MAGICC, the simple carbon cycle-climate model used in past IPCC Assessment Reports with enhanced representation of time-varying climate sensitivities, carbon cycle feedbacks, aerosol forcings and ocean heat uptake characteristics. This new version, MAGICC6, is successfully calibrated against the higher complexity AOGCMs and carbon cycle models. Parameterizations of MAGICC6 are provided. The mean of the emulations presented here using MAGICC6 deviates from the mean AOGCM responses by only 2.2% on average for the SRES scenarios. This enhanced emulation skill in comparison to previous calibrations is primarily due to: making a "like-with-like comparison" using AOGCM-specific subsets of forcings; employing a new calibration procedure; as well as the fact that the updated simple climate model can now successfully emulate some of the climate-state dependent effective climate sensitivities of AOGCMs. The diagnosed effective climate sensitivity at the time of CO2 doubling for the AOGCMs is on average 2.88 °C, about 0.33 °C cooler than the mean of the reported slab ocean climate sensitivities. In the companion paper (Part 2) of this study, we examine the combined climate system and carbon cycle emulations for the complete range of IPCC SRES emissions scenarios and the new RCP pathways.
- ItemExplaining global surface aerosol number concentrations in terms of primary emissions and particle formation(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2010) Spracklen, D.V.; Carslaw, K.S.; Merikanto, J.; Mann, G.W.; Reddington, C.L.; Pickering, S.; Ogren, J.A.; Andrews, E.; Baltensperger, U.; Weingartner, E.; Boy, M.; Kulmala, M.; Laakso, L.; Lihavainen, H.; Kivekäs, N.; Komppula, M.; Mihalopoulos, N.; Kouvarakis, G.; Jennings, S.G.; O'Dowd, C.; Birmili, W.; Wiedensohler, A.; Weller, R.; Gras, J.; Laj, P.; Sellegri, K.; Bonn, B.; Krejci, R.; Laaksonen, A.; Hamed, A.; Minikin, A.; Harrison, R.M.; Talbot, R.; Sun, J.We synthesised observations of total particle number (CN) concentration from 36 sites around the world. We found that annual mean CN concentrations are typically 300–2000 cm−3 in the marine boundary layer and free troposphere (FT) and 1000–10 000 cm−3 in the continental boundary layer (BL). Many sites exhibit pronounced seasonality with summer time concentrations a factor of 2–10 greater than wintertime concentrations. We used these CN observations to evaluate primary and secondary sources of particle number in a global aerosol microphysics model. We found that emissions of primary particles can reasonably reproduce the spatial pattern of observed CN concentration (R2=0.46) but fail to explain the observed seasonal cycle (R2=0.1). The modeled CN concentration in the FT was biased low (normalised mean bias, NMB=−88%) unless a secondary source of particles was included, for example from binary homogeneous nucleation of sulfuric acid and water (NMB=−25%). Simulated CN concentrations in the continental BL were also biased low (NMB=−74%) unless the number emission of anthropogenic primary particles was increased or a mechanism that results in particle formation in the BL was included. We ran a number of simulations where we included an empirical BL nucleation mechanism either using the activation-type mechanism (nucleation rate, J, proportional to gas-phase sulfuric acid concentration to the power one) or kinetic-type mechanism (J proportional to sulfuric acid to the power two) with a range of nucleation coefficients. We found that the seasonal CN cycle observed at continental BL sites was better simulated by BL particle formation (R2=0.3) than by increasing the number emission from primary anthropogenic sources (R2=0.18). The nucleation constants that resulted in best overall match between model and observed CN concentrations were consistent with values derived in previous studies from detailed case studies at individual sites. In our model, kinetic and activation-type nucleation parameterizations gave similar agreement with observed monthly mean CN concentrations.