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- ItemResults and recommendations from an intercomparison of six Hygroscopicity-TDMA systems(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2011) Massling, A.; Niedermeier, N.; Hennig, T.; Fors, E.O.; Swietlicki, E.; Ehn, M.; Hämeri, K.; Villani, P.; Laj, P.; Good, N.; McFiggans, G.; Wiedensohler, A.The performance of six custom-built Hygrocopicity-Tandem Differential Mobility Analyser (H-TDMA) systems was investigated in the frame of an international calibration and intercomparison workshop held in Leipzig, February 2006. The goal of the workshop was to harmonise H-TDMA measurements and develop recommendations for atmospheric measurements and their data evaluation. The H-TDMA systems were compared in terms of the sizing of dry particles, relative humidity (RH) uncertainty, and consistency in determination of number fractions of different hygroscopic particle groups. The experiments were performed in an air-conditioned laboratory using ammonium sulphate particles or an external mixture of ammonium sulphate and soot particles. The sizing of dry particles of the six H-TDMA systems was within 0.2 to 4.2% of the selected particle diameter depending on investigated size and individual system. Measurements of ammonium sulphate aerosol found deviations equivalent to 4.5% RH from the set point of 90% RH compared to results from previous experiments in the literature. Evaluation of the number fraction of particles within the clearly separated growth factor modes of a laboratory generated externally mixed aerosol was done. The data from the H-TDMAs was analysed with a single fitting routine to investigate differences caused by the different data evaluation procedures used for each H-TDMA. The differences between the H-TDMAs were reduced from +12/−13% to +8/−6% when the same analysis routine was applied. We conclude that a common data evaluation procedure to determine number fractions of externally mixed aerosols will improve the comparability of H-TDMA measurements. It is recommended to ensure proper calibration of all flow, temperature and RH sensors in the systems. It is most important to thermally insulate the aerosol humidification unit and the second DMA and to monitor these temperatures to an accuracy of 0.2 °C. For the correct determination of external mixtures, it is necessary to take into account size-dependent losses due to diffusion in the plumbing between the DMAs and in the aerosol humidification unit.
- ItemEmulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 - Part 2: Applications(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2011) Meinshausen, M.; Raper, S.C.B.; Wigley, T.M.L.Intercomparisons of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and carbon cycle models are important for galvanizing our current scientific knowledge to project future climate. Interpreting such intercomparisons faces major challenges, not least because different models have been forced with different sets of forcing agents. Here, we show how an emulation approach with MAGICC6 can address such problems. In a companion paper (Meinshausen et al., 2011a), we show how the lower complexity carbon cycle-climate model MAGICC6 can be calibrated to emulate, with considerable accuracy, globally aggregated characteristics of these more complex models. Building on that, we examine here the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project's Phase 3 results (CMIP3). If forcing agents missed by individual AOGCMs in CMIP3 are considered, this reduces ensemble average temperature change from pre-industrial times to 2100 under SRES A1B by 0.4 °C. Differences in the results from the 1980 to 1999 base period (as reported in IPCC AR4) to 2100 are negligible, however, although there are some differences in the trajectories over the 21st century. In a second part of this study, we consider the new RCP scenarios that are to be investigated under the forthcoming CMIP5 intercomparison for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. For the highest scenario, RCP8.5, relative to pre-industrial levels, we project a median warming of around 4.6 °C by 2100 and more than 7 °C by 2300. For the lowest RCP scenario, RCP3-PD, the corresponding warming is around 1.5 °C by 2100, decreasing to around 1.1 °C by 2300 based on our AOGCM and carbon cycle model emulations. Implied cumulative CO2 emissions over the 21st century for RCP8.5 and RCP3-PD are 1881 GtC (1697 to 2034 GtC, 80% uncertainty range) and 381 GtC (334 to 488 GtC), when prescribing CO2 concentrations and accounting for uncertainty in the carbon cycle. Lastly, we assess the reasons why a previous MAGICC version (4.2) used in IPCC AR4 gave roughly 10% larger warmings over the 21st century compared to the CMIP3 average. We find that forcing differences and the use of slightly too high climate sensitivities inferred from idealized high-forcing runs were the major reasons for this difference.
- ItemMaritime aerosol network as a component of AERONET - First results and comparison with global aerosol models and satellite retrievals(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2011) Smirnov, A.; Holben, B.N.; Giles, D.M.; Slutsker, I.; O'Neill, N.T.; Eck, T.F.; Macke, A.; Croot, P.; Courcoux, Y.; Sakerin, S.M.; Smyth, T.J.; Zielinski, T.; Zibordi, G.; Goes, J.I.; Harvey, M.J.; Quinn, P.K.; Nelson, N.B.; Radionov, V.F.; Duarte, C.M.; Losno, R.; Sciare, J.; Voss, K.J.; Kinne, S.; Nalli, N.R.; Joseph, E.; Krishna Moorthy, K.; Covert, D.S.; Gulev, S.K.; Milinevsky, G.; Larouche, P.; Belanger, S.; Horne, E.; Chin, M.; Remer, L.A.; Kahn, R.A.; Reid, J.S.; Schulz, M.; Heald, C.L.; Zhang, J.; Lapina, K.; Kleidman, R.G.; Griesfeller, J.; Gaitley, B.J.; Tan, Q.; Diehl, T.L.The Maritime Aerosol Network (MAN) has been collecting data over the oceans since November 2006. Over 80 cruises were completed through early 2010 with deployments continuing. Measurement areas included various parts of the Atlantic Ocean, the Northern and Southern Pacific Ocean, the South Indian Ocean, the Southern Ocean, the Arctic Ocean and inland seas. MAN deploys Microtops hand-held sunphotometers and utilizes a calibration procedure and data processing traceable to AERONET. Data collection included areas that previously had no aerosol optical depth (AOD) coverage at all, particularly vast areas of the Southern Ocean. The MAN data archive provides a valuable resource for aerosol studies in maritime environments. In the current paper we present results of AOD measurements over the oceans, and make a comparison with satellite AOD retrievals and model simulations.
- ItemSoot reference materials for instrument calibration and intercomparisons: A workshop summary with recommendations(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2012) Baumgardner, D.; Popovicheva, O.; Allan, J.; Bernardoni, V.; Cao, J.; Cavalli, F.; Cozic, J.; Courcoux, Y.; Diapouli, E.; Eleftheriadis, K.; Genberg, P.J.; Gonzalez, C.; Gysel, M.; John, A.; Kirchstetter, T.W.; Kuhlbusch, T.A.J.; Laborde, M.; Lack, D.; Müller, T.; Niessner, R.; Petzold, A.; Piazzalunga, A.; Putaud, J.P.; Schwarz, J.; Sheridan, P.; Subramanian, R.; Swietlicki, E.; Valli, G.; Vecchi, R.; Viana, M.Soot, which is produced from biomass burning and the incomplete combustion of fossil and biomass fuels, has been linked to regional and global climate change and to negative health problems. Scientists measure the properties of soot using a variety of methods in order to quantify source emissions and understand its atmospheric chemistry, reactivity under emission conditions, interaction with solar radiation, influence on clouds, and health impacts. A major obstacle currently limiting progress is the absence of established standards or reference materials for calibrating the many instruments used to measure the various properties of soot. The current state of availability and practicability of soot standard reference materials (SRMs) was reviewed by a group of 50 international experts during a workshop in June of 2011. The workshop was convened to summarize the current knowledge on soot measurement techniques, identify the measurement uncertainties and limitations related to the lack of soot SRMs, and identify attributes of SRMs that, if developed, would reduce measurement uncertainties. The workshop established that suitable SRMs are available for calibrating some, but not all, measurement methods. The community of users of the single-particle soot-photometer (SP2), an instrument using laser-induced incandescence, identified a suitable SRM, fullerene soot, but users of instruments that measure light absorption by soot collected on filters did not. Similarly, those who use thermal optical analysis (TOA) to analyze the organic and elemental carbon components of soot were not satisfied with current SRMs. The workshop, and subsequent, interactive discussions, produced a number of recommendations for the development of new SRMs, and their implementation, that would be suitable for the different soot measurement methods.
- ItemCombined wind measurements by two different lidar instruments in the Arctic middle atmosphere(Göttingen : Copernicus, 2012) Hildebrand, J.; Baumgarten, G.; Fiedler, J.; Hoppe, U.-P.; Kaifler, B.; Lübken, F.-J.; Williams, B.P.During a joint campaign in January 2009, the Rayleigh/Mie/Raman (RMR) lidar and the sodium lidar at the ALOMAR Observatory (69 N, 16 E) in Northern Norway were operated simultaneously for more than 40 h, collecting data for wind measurements in the middle atmosphere from 30 up to 110 km altitude. As both lidars share the same receiving telescopes, the upper altitude range of the RMR lidar and the lower altitude range of the sodium lidar overlap in the altitude region of ≈80-85 km. For this overlap region we are thus able to present the first simultaneous wind measurements derived from two different lidar instruments. The comparison of winds derived by RMR and sodium lidar is excellent for long integration times of 10 h as well as shorter ones of 1 h. Combination of data from both lidars allows identifying wavy structures between 30 and 110 km altitude, whose amplitudes increase with height. We have also performed vertical wind measurements and measurements of the same horizontal wind component using two independent lasers and telescopes of the RMR lidar and show how to use this data to calibrate and validate the wind retrieval. For the latter configuration we found a good agreement of the results but also identified inhomogeneities in the horizontal wind at about 55 km altitude of up to 20 ms-1 for an integration time of nearly 4 h. Such small-scale inhomogeneities in the horizontal wind field are an essential challenge when comparing data from different instruments.
- ItemEmulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 - Part 1: Model description and calibration(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2011) Meinshausen, M.; Raper, S.C.B.; Wigley, T.M.L.Current scientific knowledge on the future response of the climate system to human-induced perturbations is comprehensively captured by various model intercomparison efforts. In the preparation of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intercomparisons were organized for atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and carbon cycle models, named "CMIP3" and "C4MIP", respectively. Despite their tremendous value for the scientific community and policy makers alike, there are some difficulties in interpreting the results. For example, radiative forcings were not standardized across the various AOGCM integrations and carbon cycle runs, and, in some models, key forcings were omitted. Furthermore, the AOGCM analysis of plausible emissions pathways was restricted to only three SRES scenarios. This study attempts to address these issues. We present an updated version of MAGICC, the simple carbon cycle-climate model used in past IPCC Assessment Reports with enhanced representation of time-varying climate sensitivities, carbon cycle feedbacks, aerosol forcings and ocean heat uptake characteristics. This new version, MAGICC6, is successfully calibrated against the higher complexity AOGCMs and carbon cycle models. Parameterizations of MAGICC6 are provided. The mean of the emulations presented here using MAGICC6 deviates from the mean AOGCM responses by only 2.2% on average for the SRES scenarios. This enhanced emulation skill in comparison to previous calibrations is primarily due to: making a "like-with-like comparison" using AOGCM-specific subsets of forcings; employing a new calibration procedure; as well as the fact that the updated simple climate model can now successfully emulate some of the climate-state dependent effective climate sensitivities of AOGCMs. The diagnosed effective climate sensitivity at the time of CO2 doubling for the AOGCMs is on average 2.88 °C, about 0.33 °C cooler than the mean of the reported slab ocean climate sensitivities. In the companion paper (Part 2) of this study, we examine the combined climate system and carbon cycle emulations for the complete range of IPCC SRES emissions scenarios and the new RCP pathways.
- ItemSimilarities and differences in polar mesosphere summer echoes observed in the Arctic and Antarctica(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2008) Latteck, R.; Singer, W.; Morris, R.J.; Hocking, W.K.; Murphy, D.J.; Holdsworth, D.A.; Swarnalingam, N.Polar Mesosphere Summer Echoes (PMSE) have been observed in the high latitudes of the Northern and Southern Hemisphere for several years using VHF radars located at Andenes/Norway (69° N, 16° E), Resolute Bay/Canada (75° N, 95° W), and Davis/Antarctica (69° S, 78° E). The VHF radars at the three sites were calibrated using the same methods (noise source and delayed transmitting signal) and identical equipment. Volume reflectivity was derived from the calibrated echo power and the characteristics of the seasonal variation of PMSE were estimated at the sites for the years 2004 to 2007. The largest peak volume reflectivity of about 2×10−9 m−1 was observed at Andenes compared with their counterparts at Davis (~4×10−11 m−1) and Resolute Bay (~6×10−12 m−1). The peak of the PMSE height distribution is 85.6 km at Davis which is about 1 km higher than at Andenes. At Resolute Bay the height distribution peaks at about 85 km but only a few layers were found below 84 km. The mean PMSE occurrence rate is 83% at Andenes, 38% at Davis with larger variability and only 18% at Resolute Bay (in late summer). The duration of the PMSE season varies at Andenes from 104 to 113 days and at Davis from 88 to 93 days. In general the PMSE seasons starts about 5 days later at Davis and ends about 10 days earlier compared to Andenes. In all three seasons the PMSE occurrence suddenly drops to a much lower level at Davis about 32 days after solstice whereas the PMSE season decays smoothly at Andenes. The duration of the PMSE season at Andenes and Davis is highly correlated with the presence of equatorward directed winds, the observed differences in PMSE occurrence are related to the mesospheric temperatures at both sites.
- ItemNumerical modelling of climate change impacts on freshwater lenses on the North Sea Island of Borkum using hydrological and geophysical methods(Munich : EGU, 2012) Sulzbacher, H.; Wiederhold, H.; Siemon, B.; Grinat, M.; Igel, J.; Burschil, T.; Günther, T.; Hinsby, K.A numerical, density dependent groundwater model is set up for the North Sea Island of Borkum to estimate climate change impacts on coastal aquifers and especially the situation of barrier islands in the Wadden Sea. The database includes information from boreholes, a seismic survey, a helicopter-borne electromagnetic (HEM) survey, monitoring of the freshwater-saltwater boundary by vertical electrode chains in two boreholes, measurements of groundwater table, pumping and slug tests, as well as water samples. Based on a statistical analysis of borehole columns, seismic sections and HEM, a hydrogeological model is set up. The groundwater model is developed using the finite-element programme FEFLOW. The density dependent groundwater model is calibrated on the basis of hydraulic, hydrological and geophysical data, in particular spatial HEM and local monitoring data. Verification runs with the calibrated model show good agreement between measured and computed hydraulic heads. A good agreement is also obtained between measured and computed density or total dissolved solids data for both the entire freshwater lens on a large scale and in the area of the well fields on a small scale. For simulating future changes in this coastal groundwater system until the end of the current century, we use the climate scenario A2, specified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and, in particular, the data for the German North Sea coast. Simulation runs show proceeding salinisation with time beneath the well fields of the two waterworks Waterdelle and Ostland. The modelling study shows that the spreading of well fields is an appropriate protection measure against excessive salinisation of the water supply until the end of the current century.
- ItemCompiling geophysical and geological information into a 3-D model of the glacially-affected island of Föhr(Munich : EGU, 2012) Burschil, T.; Scheer, W.; Kirsch, R.; Wiederhold, H.Within the scope of climatic change and associated sea level rise, coastal aquifers are endangered and are becoming more a focus of research to ensure the future water supply in coastal areas. For groundwater modelling a good understanding of the geological/hydrogeological situation and the aquifer behavior is necessary. In preparation of groundwater modelling and assessment of climate change impacts on coastal water resources, we setup a geological/hydrogeological model for the North Sea Island of Föhr. Data from different geophysical methods applied from the air, the surface and in boreholes contribute to the 3-D model, e.g. airborne electromagnetics (SkyTEM) for spatial mapping the resistivity of the entire island, seismic reflections for detailed cross-sections in the groundwater catchment area, and geophysical borehole logging for calibration of these measurements. An iterative and integrated evaluation of the results from the different geophysical methods contributes to reliable data as input for the 3-D model covering the whole island and not just the well fields. The complex subsurface structure of the island is revealed. The local waterworks use a freshwater body embedded in saline groundwater. Several glaciations reordered the youngest Tertiary and Quaternary sediments by glaciotectonic thrust faulting, as well as incision and refill of glacial valleys. Both subsurface structures have a strong impact on the distribution of freshwater-bearing aquifers. A digital geological 3-D model reproduces the hydrogeological structure of the island as a base for a groundwater model. In the course of the data interpretation, we deliver a basis for rock identification. We demonstrate that geophysical investigation provide petrophysical parameters and improve the understanding of the subsurface and the groundwater system. The main benefit of our work is that the successful combination of electromagnetic, seismic and borehole data reveals the complex geology of a glacially-affected island. A sound understanding of the subsurface structure and the compilation of a 3-D model is imperative and the basis for a groundwater flow model to predict climate change effects on future water resources.
- ItemHydraulic properties at the North Sea island of Borkum derived from joint inversion of magnetic resonance and electrical resistivity soundings(Munich : EGU, 2012) Günther, T.; Müller-Petke, M.For reliably predicting the impact of climate changes on salt/freshwater systems below barrier islands, a long-term hydraulic modelling is inevitable. As input we need the parameters porosity, salinity and hydraulic conductivity at the catchment scale, preferably non-invasively acquired with geophysical methods. We present a methodology to retrieve the searched parameters and a lithological interpretation by the joint analysis of magnetic resonance soundings (MRS) and vertical electric soundings (VES). Both data sets are jointly inverted for resistivity, water content and decay time using a joint inversion scheme. Coupling is accomplished by common layer thicknesses. We show the results of three soundings measured on the eastern part of the North Sea island of Borkum. Pumping test data is used to calibrate the petrophysical relationship for the local conditions in order to estimate permeability from nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) data. Salinity is retrieved from water content and resistivity using a modified Archie equation calibrated by local samples. As a result we are able to predict porosity, salinity and hydraulic conductivities of the aquifers, including their uncertainties. The joint inversion significantly improves the reliability of the results. Verification is given by comparison with a borehole. A sounding in the flooding area demonstrates that only the combined inversion provides a correct subsurface model. Thanks to the joint application, we are able to distinguish fluid conductivity from lithology and provide reliable hydraulic parameters as shown by uncertainty analysis. These findings can finally be used to build groundwater flow models for simulating climate changes. This includes the improved geometry and lithological attribution, and also the parameters and their uncertainties. © Author(s) 2012.