Search Results
DIVA: An iterative method for building modular integrated models
2005, Hinkel, J.
Integrated modelling of global environmental change impacts faces the challenge that knowledge from the domains of Natural and Social Science must be integrated. This is complicated by often incompatible terminology and the fact that the interactions between subsystems are usually not fully understood at the start of the project. While a modular modelling approach is necessary to address these challenges, it is not sufficient. The remaining question is how the modelled system shall be cut down into modules. While no generic answer can be given to this question, communication tools can be provided to support the process of modularisation and integration. Along those lines of thought a method for building modular integrated models was developed within the EU project DINAS-COAST and applied to construct a first model, which assesses the vulnerability of the world’s coasts to climate change and sea-level-rise. The method focuses on the development of a common language and offers domain experts an intuitive interface to code their knowledge in form of modules. However, instead of rigorously defining interfaces between the subsystems at the project’s beginning, an iterative model development process is defined and tools to facilitate communication and collaboration are provided. This flexible approach has the advantage that increased understanding about subsystem interactions, gained during the project’s lifetime, can immediately be reflected in the model.
First experimental verification of summertime mesospheric momentum balance based on radar wind measurements at 69° N
2015, Placke, M., Hoffmann, P., Rapp, M.
Gravity waves (GWs) greatly influence the background state of the middle atmosphere by imposing their momentum on the mean flow upon breaking and by thus driving, e.g., the upper mesospheric summer zonal wind reversal. In this situation momentum is conserved by a balance between the vertical divergence of GW momentum flux (the so-called GW drag) and the Coriolis acceleration of the mean meridional wind. In this study, we present first quantitative mean annual cycles of these two balancing quantities from the medium frequency Doppler radar at the polar site Saura (SMF radar, 69° N, 16° E). Three-year means for 2009 through 2011 clearly show that the observed zonal momentum balance between 70 and 100 km with contributions from GWs only is fulfilled during summer when GW activity is strongest and more stable than in winter. During winter, the balance between GW drag and Coriolis acceleration of the mean meridional wind is not existent, which is likely due to the additional contribution from planetary waves, which are not considered by the present investigation. The differences in the momentum balance between summer and winter conditions are additionally clarified by 3-month mean vertical profiles for summer 2010 and winter 2010/2011.
Charging of mesospheric aerosol particles: The role of photodetachment and photoionization from meteoric smoke and ice particles
2009, Rapp, M.
Time constants for photodetachment, photoemission, and electron capture are considered for two classes of mesospheric aerosol particles, i.e., meteor smoke particles (MSPs) and pure water ice particles. Assuming that MSPs consist of metal oxides like Fe2O3 or SiO, we find that during daytime conditions photodetachment by solar photons is up to 4 orders of magnitude faster than electron attachment such that MSPs cannot be negatively charged in the presence of sunlight. Rather, even photoemission can compete with electron capture unless the electron density becomes very large (≫1000 cm-3) such that MSPs should either be positively charged or neutral in the case of large electron densities. For pure water ice particles, however, both photodetachment and photoemission are negligible due to the wavelength characteristics of its absorption cross section and because the flux of solar photons has already dropped significantly at such short wavelengths. This means that water ice particles should normally be negatively charged. Hence, our results can readily explain the repeated observation of the coexistence of positive and negative aerosol particles in the polar summer mesopause, i.e., small MSPs should be positively charged and ice particles should be negatively charged. These results have further important implications for our understanding of the nucleation of mesospheric ice particles as well as for the interpretation of incoherent scatter radar observations of MSPs. © 2009 Author(s).
Effects of Climate Change on the Hydrological Cycle in Central and Eastern Europe
2014, Stagl, J., Mayr, E., Koch, H., Hattermann, F.F., Huang, S.
For the management of protected areas knowledge about the water regime plays a very important role, in particular in areas with lakes, wetlands, marches or floodplains. The local hydrological conditions depend widely on temporal and spatial variations of the main components of the hydrologic cycle and physiographic conditions on site. To preserve a favourable conservation status under changing climatic conditions park managers require information about potential impacts of climate change in their area. The following chapter provides an overview of how climate change affects the hydrological regimes in Central and Eastern Europe. The hydrological impacts for the protected areas are area-specific and vary from region to region. Generally, an increase in temperature enhances the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere and thus, leads to an intensification of the hydrological cycle. Key changes in the hydrological system include alterations in the seasonal distribution, magnitude and duration of precipitation and evapotranspiration. This may lead to changes in the water storage, surface runoff, soil moisture and seasonal snow packs as well as to modifications in the mass balance of Central European glaciers. Partly, water resources management can help to counterbalance effects of climate change on stream flow and water availability.
The Hiccup: a dynamical coupling process during the autumn transition in the Northern Hemisphere – similarities and differences to sudden stratospheric warmings
2015, Matthias, V., Shepherd, T.G., Hoffmann, P., Rapp, M.
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are the most prominent vertical coupling process in the middle atmosphere, which occur during winter and are caused by the interaction of planetary waves (PWs) with the zonal mean flow. Vertical coupling has also been identified during the equinox transitions, and is similarly associated with PWs. We argue that there is a characteristic aspect of the autumn transition in northern high latitudes, which we call the "hiccup", and which acts like a "mini SSW", i.e. like a small minor warming. We study the average characteristics of the hiccup based on a superimposed epoch analysis using a nudged version of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model, representing 30 years of historical data. Hiccups can be identified in about half the years studied. The mesospheric zonal wind results are compared to radar observations over Andenes (69° N, 16° E) for the years 2000–2013. A comparison of the average characteristics of hiccups and SSWs shows both similarities and differences between the two vertical coupling processes.
Climatology of northern polar latitude MLT dynamics: Mean winds and tides
2010, Kumar, G.K., Hocking, W.K.
Mean winds and tides in the northern polar Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere (MLT) have been studied using meteor radars located at Resolute Bay (75° N, 95° W) and Yellowknife (62.5° N, 114.3° W). The measurements for Resolute Bay span almost 12 years from July 1997 to February 2009 and the Yellowknife data cover 7 years from June 2002 to October 2008. The analysis reveals similar wind flow over both sites with a difference in magnitude. The summer zonal flow is westward at lower heights, eastward at upper heights and the winter zonal flow is eastward at all heights. The winter meridional flow is poleward and sometimes weakly equatorward, while non winter months show equatorward flow, with a strong equatorward jet during mid-summer months. The zonal and meridional winds show strong interannual variation with a dominant annual variation as well as significant latitudinal variation. Year to year variability in both zonal and meridional winds exists, with a possible solar cycle dependence. The diurnal, semidiurnal and terdiurnal tides also show large interannual variability and latitudinal variation. The diurnal amplitudes are dominated by an annual variation. The climatological monthly mean winds are compared with CIRA 86, GEWM and HWM07 and the climatological monthly mean amplitudes and phases of diurnal and semidiurnal tides are compared with GSWM00 predictions. The GEWM shows better agreement with observations than the CIRA 86 and HWM07. The GSWM00 model predictions need to be modified above 90 km. The agreements and disagreements between observations and models are discussed. © 2010 Author(s).
MAARSY-the new MST radar on Andøya: First results of spaced antenna and Doppler measurements of atmospheric winds in the troposphere and mesosphere using a partial array
2012, Stober, G., Latteck, R., Rapp, M., Singer, W., Zecha, M.
MST radars have been used to study the troposphere, stratosphere and mesosphere over decades. These radars have proven to be a valuable tool to investigate atmospheric dynamics. MAARSY, the new MST radar at the island of Andøya uses a phased array antenna and is able to perform spaced antenna and Doppler measurements at the same time with high temporal and spatial resolution. Here we present first wind observations using the initial expansion stage during summer 2010. The tropospheric spaced antenna and Doppler beam swinging experiments are compared to radiosonde measurements, which were launched at the nearby Andøya Rocket Range (ARR). The mesospheric wind observations are evaluated versus common volume meteor radar wind measurements. The beam steering capabilities of MAARSY are demonstrated by performing systematic scans of polar mesospheric summer echoes (PMSE) using 25 and 91 beam directions. These wind observations permit to evaluate the new radar against independent measurements from radiosondes and meteor radar measurements to demonstrate its capabilities to provide reliable wind data from the troposphere up to the mesosphere.
Simultaneous observations of a Mesospheric Inversion Layer and turbulence during the ECOMA-2010 rocket campaign
2013, Szewczyk, A., Strelnikov, B., Rapp, M., Strelnikova, I., Baumgarten, G., Kaifler, N., Dunker, T., Hoppe, U.-P.
From 19 November to 19 December 2010 the fourth and final ECOMA rocket campaign was conducted at Andøya Rocket Range (69 N, 16 E) in northern Norway. We present and discuss measurement results obtained during the last rocket launch labelled ECOMA09 when simultaneous and true common volume in situ measurements of temperature and turbulence supported by ground-based lidar observations reveal two Mesospheric Inversion Layers (MIL) at heights between 71 and 73 km and between 86 and 89 km. Strong turbulence was measured in the region of the upper inversion layer, with the turbulent energy dissipation rates maximising at 2 W kg-1. This upper MIL was observed by the ALOMAR Weber Na lidar over the period of several hours. The spatial extension of this MIL as observed by the MLS instrument onboard AURA satellite was found to be more than two thousand kilometres. Our analysis suggests that both observed MILs could possibly have been produced by neutral air turbulence.
Long-term trends in the ionospheric F2 region with different solar activity indices
2013, Mielich, J., Bremer, J.
A new comprehensive data collection by Damboldt and Suessmann (2012a) with monthly foF2 and M(3000)F2 median values is an excellent basis for the derivation of long-term trends in the ionospheric F2 region. Ionospheric trends have been derived only for stations with data series of at least 22 years (124 stations with foF2 data and 113 stations with M(3000)F2 data) using a twofold regression analysis depending on solar and geomagnetic activity. Three main results have been derived: Firstly, it could be shown that the solar 10.7 cm radio flux F10.7 is a better index for the description of the solar activity than the relative solar sunspot number R as well as the solar EUV proxy E10.7. Secondly, the global mean foF2 and
Agents, Bayes, and Climatic Risks - a modular modelling approach
2005, Haas, A., Jaeger, C.
When insurance firms, energy companies, governments, NGOs, and other agents strive to manage climatic risks, it is by no way clear what the aggregate outcome should and will be. As a framework for investigating this subject, we present the LAGOM model family. It is based on modules depicting learning social agents. For managing climate risks, our agents use second order probabilities and update them by means of a Bayesian mechanism while differing in priors and risk aversion. The interactions between these modules and the aggregate outcomes of their actions are implemented using further modules. The software system is implemented as a series of parallel processes using the CIAMn approach. It is possible to couple modules irrespective of the language they are written in, the operating system under which they are run, and the physical location of the machine