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- ItemFrom cyclic ice streaming to Heinrich-like events: the grow-and-surge instability in the parallel ice sheet model(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2017) Feldmann, Johannes; Levermann, AndersHere we report on a cyclic, physical ice-discharge instability in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model, simulating the flow of a three-dimensional, inherently buttressed ice-sheet-shelf system which periodically surges on a millennial timescale. The thermomechanically coupled model on 1 km horizontal resolution includes an enthalpy-based formulation of the thermodynamics, a nonlinear stress-balance-based sliding law and a very simple subglacial hydrology. The simulated unforced surging is characterized by rapid ice streaming through a bed trough, resulting in abrupt discharge of ice across the grounding line which is eventually calved into the ocean. We visualize the central feedbacks that dominate the subsequent phases of ice buildup, surge and stabilization which emerge from the interaction between ice dynamics, thermodynamics and the subglacial till layer. Results from the variation of surface mass balance and basal roughness suggest that ice sheets of medium thickness may be more susceptible to surging than relatively thin or thick ones for which the surge feedback loop is damped. We also investigate the influence of different basal sliding laws (ranging from purely plastic to nonlinear to linear) on possible surging. The presented mechanisms underlying our simulations of self-maintained, periodic ice growth and destabilization may play a role in large-scale ice-sheet surging, such as the surging of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, which is associated with Heinrich events, and ice-stream shutdown and reactivation, such as observed in the Siple Coast region of West Antarctica.
- ItemGlobal gridded crop model evaluation: Benchmarking, skills, deficiencies and implications(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2017) Müller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Arneth, Almut; Balkovic, Juraj; Ciais, Philippe; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Hoek, Steven; Iizumi, Toshichika; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Jones, Curtis; Khabarov, Nikolay; Lawrence, Peter; Liu, Wenfeng; Olin, Stefan; Pugh, Thomas A.M.; Ray, Deepak K.; Reddy, Ashwan; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C.; Sakurai, Gen; Schmid, Erwin; Skalsky, Rastislav; Song, Carol X.; Wang, Xuhui; de Wit, Allard; Yang, HongCrop models are increasingly used to simulate crop yields at the global scale, but so far there is no general framework on how to assess model performance. Here we evaluate the simulation results of 14 global gridded crop modeling groups that have contributed historic crop yield simulations for maize, wheat, rice and soybean to the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). Simulation results are compared to reference data at global, national and grid cell scales and we evaluate model performance with respect to time series correlation, spatial correlation and mean bias. We find that global gridded crop models (GGCMs) show mixed skill in reproducing time series correlations or spatial patterns at the different spatial scales. Generally, maize, wheat and soybean simulations of many GGCMs are capable of reproducing larger parts of observed temporal variability (time series correlation coefficients (r) of up to 0.888 for maize, 0.673 for wheat and 0.643 for soybean at the global scale) but rice yield variability cannot be well reproduced by most models. Yield variability can be well reproduced for most major producing countries by many GGCMs and for all countries by at least some. A comparison with gridded yield data and a statistical analysis of the effects of weather variability on yield variability shows that the ensemble of GGCMs can explain more of the yield variability than an ensemble of regression models for maize and soybean, but not for wheat and rice. We identify future research needs in global gridded crop modeling and for all individual crop modeling groups. In the absence of a purely observation-based benchmark for model evaluation, we propose that the best performing crop model per crop and region establishes the benchmark for all others, and modelers are encouraged to investigate how crop model performance can be increased. We make our evaluation system accessible to all crop modelers so that other modeling groups can also test their model performance against the reference data and the GGCMI benchmark.
- ItemPALADYN v1.0, a comprehensive land surface-vegetation-carbon cycle model of intermediate complexity(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2016) Willeit, Matteo; Ganopolski, AndreyPALADYN is presented; it is a new comprehensive and computationally efficient land surface–vegetation–carbon cycle model designed to be used in Earth system models of intermediate complexity for long-term simulations and paleoclimate studies. The model treats in a consistent manner the interaction between atmosphere, terrestrial vegetation and soil through the fluxes of energy, water and carbon. Energy, water and carbon are conserved. PALADYN explicitly treats permafrost, both in physical processes and as an important carbon pool. It distinguishes nine surface types: five different vegetation types, bare soil, land ice, lake and ocean shelf. Including the ocean shelf allows the treatment of continuous changes in sea level and shelf area associated with glacial cycles. Over each surface type, the model solves the surface energy balance and computes the fluxes of sensible, latent and ground heat and upward shortwave and longwave radiation. The model includes a single snow layer. Vegetation and bare soil share a single soil column. The soil is vertically discretized into five layers where prognostic equations for temperature, water and carbon are consistently solved. Phase changes of water in the soil are explicitly considered. A surface hydrology module computes precipitation interception by vegetation, surface runoff and soil infiltration. The soil water equation is based on Darcy's law. Given soil water content, the wetland fraction is computed based on a topographic index. The temperature profile is also computed in the upper part of ice sheets and in the ocean shelf soil. Photosynthesis is computed using a light use efficiency model. Carbon assimilation by vegetation is coupled to the transpiration of water through stomatal conductance. PALADYN includes a dynamic vegetation module with five plant functional types competing for the grid cell share with their respective net primary productivity. PALADYN distinguishes between mineral soil carbon, peat carbon, buried carbon and shelf carbon. Each soil carbon type has its own soil carbon pools generally represented by a litter, a fast and a slow carbon pool in each soil layer. Carbon can be redistributed between the layers by vertical diffusion and advection. For the vegetated macro surface type, decomposition is a function of soil temperature and soil moisture. Carbon in permanently frozen layers is assigned a long turnover time which effectively locks carbon in permafrost. Carbon buried below ice sheets and on flooded ocean shelves is treated differently. The model also includes a dynamic peat module. PALADYN includes carbon isotopes 13C and 14C, which are tracked through all carbon pools. Isotopic discrimination is modelled only during photosynthesis. A simple methane module is implemented to represent methane emissions from anaerobic carbon decomposition in wetlands (including peatlands) and flooded ocean shelf. The model description is accompanied by a thorough model evaluation in offline mode for the present day and the historical period.
- ItemAssessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2017) Frieler, Katja; Lange, Stefan; Piontek, Franziska; Reyer, Christopher P.O.; Schewe, Jacob; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang; Chini, Louise; Denvil, Sebastien; Emanuel, Kerry; Geiger, Tobias; Halladay, Kate; Hurtt, George; Mengel, Matthias; Murakami, Daisuke; Ostberg, Sebastian; Popp, Alexander; Riva, Riccardo; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Suzuki, Tatsuo; Volkholz, Jan; Burke, Eleanor; Ciais, Philippe; Ebi, Kristie; Eddy, Tyler D.; Elliott, Joshua; Galbraith, Eric; Gosling, Simon N.; Hattermann, Fred; Hickler, Thomas; Hinkel, Jochen; Hof, Christian; Huber, Veronika; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Krysanova, Valentina; Marcé, Rafael; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Pierson, Don; Tittensor, Derek P.; Vautard, Robert; van Vliet, Michelle; Biber, Matthias F.; Betts, Richard A.; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Deryng, Delphine; Frolking, Steve; Jones, Chris D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tian, Hanqin; Yamagata, YoshikiIn Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5°C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).
- ItemTreatment of non-ideality in the SPACCIM multiphase model - Part 1: Model development(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2016) Rusumdar, A.J.; Wolke, R.; Tilgner, A.; Herrmann, H.Ambient tropospheric deliquesced particles generally comprise a complex mixture of electrolytes, organic compounds, and water. Dynamic modeling of physical and chemical processes in this complex matrix is challenging. Thus, up-to-date multiphase chemistry models generally do not consider non-ideal solution effects. Therefore, the present study was aimed at presenting further development of the SPACCIM (Spectral Aerosol Cloud Chemistry Interaction Model) through treatment of solution non-ideality, which has not been considered before. The present paper firstly describes the model developments including (i) the implementation of solution non-ideality in aqueous-phase reaction kinetics in the SPACCIM framework, (ii) the advancements in the coupling scheme of microphysics and multiphase chemistry and (iii) the required adjustments of the numerical schemes, especially in the sparse linear solver and the calculation of the Jacobian. Secondly, results of sensitivity investigations are outlined, aiming at the evaluation of different activity coefficient modules and the examination of the contributions of different intermolecular forces to the overall activity coefficients. Finally, first results obtained with the new model framework are presented. The SPACCIM parcel model was developed and, so far, applied for the description of aerosol–cloud interactions. To advance SPACCIM also for modeling physical and chemical processes in deliquesced particles, the solution non-ideality has to be taken into account by utilizing activities in reaction terms instead of aqueous concentrations. The main goal of the extended approach was to provide appropriate activity coefficients for solved species. Therefore, an activity coefficient module was incorporated into the kinetic model framework of SPACCIM. Based on an intercomparison of different activity coefficient models and the comparison with experimental data, the AIOMFAC approach was implemented and extended by additional interaction parameters from the literature for mixed organic–inorganic systems. Moreover, the performance and the capability of the applied activity coefficient module were evaluated by means of water activity measurements, literature data and results of other activity coefficient models. Comprehensive comparison studies showed that the SpactMod (SPACCIM activity coefficient module) is valuable for predicting the thermodynamic behavior of complex mixtures of multicomponent atmospheric aerosol particles. First simulations with a detailed chemical mechanism have demonstrated the applicability of SPACCIM-SpactMod. The simulations indicate that the treatment of solution non-ideality might be needed for modeling multiphase chemistry processes in deliquesced particles. The modeled activity coefficients imply that chemical reaction fluxes of chemical processes in deliquesced particles can be both decreased and increased depending on the particular species involved in the reactions. For key ions, activity coefficients on the order of 0.1–0.8 and a strong dependency on the charge state as well as the RH conditions are modeled, implying a lowered chemical processing of ions in concentrated solutions. In contrast, modeled activity coefficients of organic compounds are in some cases larger than 1 under deliquesced particle conditions and suggest the possibility of an increased chemical processing of organic compounds. Moreover, the model runs have shown noticeable differences in the pH values calculated with and without consideration of solution non-ideality. On average, the predicted pH values of the simulations considering solution non-ideality are −0.27 and −0.44 pH units lower under 90 and 70 % RH conditions, respectively. More comprehensive results of detailed SPACCIM-SpactMod studies on the multiphase processing in organic–inorganic mixtures of deliquesced particles are described in a companion paper.
- ItemThe Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services Advisory Board (VIACS AB v1.0) contribution to CMIP6(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2016) Ruane, Alex C.; Teichmann, Claas; Arnell, Nigel W.; Carter, Timothy R.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Frieler, Katja; Goodess, Clare M.; Hewitson, Bruce; Horton, Radley; Kovats, R. Sari; Lotze, Heike K.; Mearns, Linda O.; Navarra, Antonio; Ojima, Dennis S.; Riahi, Keywan; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Themessl, Matthias; Vincent, KatharineThis paper describes the motivation for the creation of the Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), its initial activities, and its plans to serve as a bridge between climate change applications experts and climate modelers. The climate change application community comprises researchers and other specialists who use climate information (alongside socioeconomic and other environmental information) to analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation of natural systems and society in relation to past, ongoing, and projected future climate change. Much of this activity is directed toward the co-development of information needed by decision-makers for managing projected risks. CMIP6 provides a unique opportunity to facilitate a two-way dialog between climate modelers and VIACS experts who are looking to apply CMIP6 results for a wide array of research and climate services objectives. The VIACS Advisory Board convenes leaders of major impact sectors, international programs, and climate services to solicit community feedback that increases the applications relevance of the CMIP6-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs). As an illustration of its potential, the VIACS community provided CMIP6 leadership with a list of prioritized climate model variables and MIP experiments of the greatest interest to the climate model applications community, indicating the applicability and societal relevance of climate model simulation outputs. The VIACS Advisory Board also recommended an impacts version of Obs4MIPs and indicated user needs for the gridding and processing of model output.
- ItemNew developments in the representation of Saharan dust sources in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2016) Heinold, Bernd; Tegen, Ina; Schepanski, Kerstin; Banks, Jamie R.In the aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2, dust source activation (DSA) observations from Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite are proposed to replace the original source area parameterization over the Sahara Desert. The new setup is tested in nudged simulations for the period 2007 to 2008. The evaluation is based on comparisons to dust emission events inferred from MSG dust index imagery, Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometer observations, and satellite retrievals of aerosol optical thickness (AOT). The model results agree well with AERONET measurements especially in terms of seasonal variability, and a good spatial correlation was found between model results and MSG-SEVIRI (Spinning-Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager) dust AOT as well as Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) AOT. ECHAM6-HAM2 computes a more realistic geographical distribution and up to 20 % higher annual Saharan dust emissions, using the MSG-based source map. The representation of dust AOT is partly improved in the southern Sahara and Sahel. In addition, the spatial variability is increased towards a better agreement with observations depending on the season. Thus, using the MSG DSA map can help to circumvent the issue of uncertain soil input parameters. An important issue remains the need to improve the model representation of moist convection and stable nighttime conditions. Compared to sub-daily DSA information from MSG-SEVIRI and results from a regional model, ECHAM6-HAM2 notably underestimates the important fraction of morning dust events by the breakdown of the nocturnal low-level jet, while a major contribution is from afternoon-to-evening emissions.
- ItemThe Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2016) O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2°C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.
- ItemHalf a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): Background and experimental design(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2017) Mitchell, Daniel; AchutaRao, Krishna; Allen, Myles; Bethke, Ingo; Beyerle, Urs; Ciavarella, Andrew; Forster, Piers M.; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Gillett, Nathan; Haustein, Karsten; Ingram, William; Iversen, Trond; Kharin, Viatcheslav; Klingaman, Nicholas; Massey, Neil; Fischer, Erich; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Scinocca, John; Seland, Øyvind; Shiogama, Hideo; Shuckburgh, Emily; Sparrow, Sarah; Stone, Dáithí; Uhe, Peter; Wallom, David; Wehner, Michael; Zaaboul, RashydThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from the UNFCCC to provide a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and on related global greenhouse-gas emission pathways. Many current experiments in, for example, the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP), are not specifically designed for informing this report. Here, we document the design of the half a degree additional warming, projections, prognosis and impacts (HAPPI) experiment. HAPPI provides a framework for the generation of climate data describing how the climate, and in particular extreme weather, might differ from the present day in worlds that are 1.5 and 2.0°C warmer than pre-industrial conditions. Output from participating climate models includes variables frequently used by a range of impact models. The key challenge is to separate the impact of an additional approximately half degree of warming from uncertainty in climate model responses and internal climate variability that dominate CMIP-style experiments under low-emission scenarios. Large ensembles of simulations (> 50 members) of atmosphere-only models for three time slices are proposed, each a decade in length: the first being the most recent observed 10-year period (2006–2015), the second two being estimates of a similar decade but under 1.5 and 2°C conditions a century in the future. We use the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) to provide the model boundary conditions for the 1.5°C scenario, and a weighted combination of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 for the 2°C scenario.
- ItemEmploying electro-mechanical analogies for co-resonantly coupled cantilever sensors(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2016) Körner, Julia; Reiche, Christopher F.; Büchner, Bernd; Mühl, Thomas; Gerlach, GeraldUnderstanding the behaviour of mechanical systems can be facilitated and improved by employing electro-mechanical analogies. These analogies enable the use of network analysis tools as well as purely analytical treatment of the mechanical system translated into an electric circuit. Recently, we developed a novel kind of sensor set-up based on two coupled cantilever beams with matched resonance frequencies (co-resonant coupling) and possible applications in magnetic force microscopy and cantilever magnetometry. In order to analyse the sensor's behaviour in detail, we describe it as an electric circuit model. Starting from a simplified coupled harmonic oscillator model with neglected damping, we gradually increase the complexity of the system by adding damping and interaction elements. For each stage, various features of the coupled system are discussed and compared to measured data obtained with a co-resonant sensor. Furthermore, we show that the circuit model can be used to derive sensor parameters which are essential for the evaluation of measured data. Finally, the much more complex circuit representation of a bending beam is discussed, revealing that the simplified circuit model of a coupled harmonic oscillator is a very good representation of the sensor system.